No doubt he improves the staff for '11, and probably '12, though as with all SP's, he's one pitch away from surgery, perhaps moreso because of his age. As with all long-term deals, there is risk. The irony I see is, many suggest Doug "has to take a risk" because no FA SP will come to MIL, but whether it's giving a guy like Pavano an extra year, DLR too much money (like most would say COL did), or signing a guy like Webb or a similar SP coming off an injury (who may be undervalued if he returns to health, or overpaid if he does not), no one wants to say this particular risk is probably the best one. Doug only gets to make one choice, and to be honest, all you can do is play the odds. Using poker terms, some times your opponent goes all-in with a gutshot straight draw, you make the proper call, but that 6 that comes on the river still makes you a loser. Whether or not Pavano is a key component to being a contender, or a guy who eats up payroll to keep from getting the key component is an unknown, and even if you play the percentages properly, you could easily end up being incorrect. This is the life of a small market GM. Theo can afford to miss on a $10M guy annually. Cashman can miss on a couple. Doug cannot.