Jopal78

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I’m not aware of any pitcher reacting like Burnes and not needing surgery.

First set of images “inconclusive” which suggests to me there is damage to the ligament but the team doctors couldn’t reach a conclusion on the severity of the damage from the examination and images,  so they’ll send him to a specialist for evaluation. 

With their win tonight, Milwaukee is one game out of the 3rd wild card, two games out of the 2nd wild card spot and 3 games out of the 1st wild card spot. Should they stay hot (not undefeated) for another week and they’d likely be in  a playoff spot and nipping the Cubs’ heels.
 

It’s also just 60+ games and a good week of baseball or a bad week of baseball doesn’t suggest much at this point in the season. 

The Rockies are 9-50. I knew they were awful but hadn’t checked their record. They’re on pace to win 25 games.

12 hours ago, Brewer77 said:

Yeah he has no more use on this roster with all the lefties and length in the pen now

The Brewers have some financial incentive to cut Alexander loose as well if he’s not up to snuff. With another 4 innings he’ll trigger the first of several incentives based on innings pitched totaling $800,000+. With how often he’s used he could conceivably collect them all (100 IP).

Despite his struggles Yelich is almost on a 30/30 pace this season. 

Smith was ugly again yesterday against the Mets:

3 2/3 innings-86 pitches: 3 earned runs, 2 hits (one for a homer), 5 walks, a HBP
 

4.67 ERA across his last 3 starts. 

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Within the next week I expect a trade coming with Woody and Quintana coming back. Tyler Alexander would be the obvious first candidate, he is good enough for someone to want him but not really get anything valuable back. With Hall and Ashby back Alexander and Rob Z are the easy 2 to get rid of as 4th and 5th lefties from the pen.

Civale could be an option as well plenty of teams need a vet starter. The Astros have a ton of injury issues and not a ton of depth. Shay Whitcomb would be a great return, they can have Rob Z or Alexander if they want as well.

Clearly they would just DFA the bottom of their roster. Nobody is going to trade for those players. Heck they got Civale last year for next to nothing when he was making 60% of what he is now. He’s barely pitched this year. He needs to perform first to rebuild any value. 

 Alexander has an ERA over 5, if the Brewers dropped him he’d  accept an outright assignment to AAA if it meant he had to forfeit his salary to refuse. 

1 hour ago, Joseph Zarr said:

We have devolved. I could say quite a bit here - but, glad you feel comfortable playing the part of armchair financial strategist. Incredible. If you only knew (which you don't). I'm going to simply take the high road and declare confidently: we disagree entirely on how we view this entire conversation. I'm fine with it. The Brewers winning with poor strategy and rationale doesn't mean they didn't win via poor strategy and rationale. The two are not mutually exclusive. You feel they are. That's fine. Enjoy that POV. I don't begrudge it. 

 

And the fact that you quite probably (like all of us) don’t know beans about managing a major league team, and the Brewers winning despite what you think they should have  done.

I don’t begrudge your point of view either. The same retrospective “told you so”  type of arguments are 24/7 on sports talk radio and it is a multi million dollar industry so clearly it resonates with a large swath of sports fans. 

48 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

<cue Lebowski Nihlists gif>

Is this some sage wisdom? It's the players who win games? Sure. The manager also puts the players in positions to succeed. Clearly you have never watched Glenn 'Doc' Rivers 'manage' an NBA basketball game. I traded crypto and Forex for years (I still do, casually, but with a much smaller play purse). It would be just an asinine approach for any trader to say: "Meh, let me just enter the game. I don't win these trades the Buy and Sell Order do." No. You play probabilities and percentages. You know certain patterns, especially when combined, give a probability of outcomes. None of this is rocket science. I promise you. You play the odds. Because, that is what history tells us has the best chance for success. 

Anywho, I'm not trying to get into fights over Murf's management style (if we can call it that). It's very fair to say I don't appreciate his approach. 😂

I’m not going to touch the wisdom in day trading, but it’s not something that’s generally part of good financial planning. So maybe you and Murphy have something in common despite making bad decisions you come out smelling like a rose.
 

But kidding aside , you’re Monday morning quarterbacking. Murphy could push all the wrong buttons and they win like today. Or just as easily he could make all the best moves and the team  still loses. There’s no real way to quantify in game decisions besides starting from a negative outcome and saying, “See? He sucks”.

1 hour ago, Joseph Zarr said:

You are a MAD MAN. Nobody should get in the way of our great MOTY award winner. He is in a League of his own. 

Man, I really want to like Murphy. I sincerely do. He's a likable human. BUT, I'm sorry. He is not a good MLB manager. A significant part of helping your MLB team win ball games is reading the tea leaves and orchestrating the pitching staff. To this end, he is a drunken blind man. It's maddening. Truly maddening. These are not hard decisions. They are stubborn and truly poor 'feel' decisions demonstrating he doesn't actually understand what the numbers are telling all of us. OR, he flat doesn't care and thinks he is smarter than the game. You can't 'hope' for outcomes. You play probabilities and percentages. These types of probability and statistically backed decisions are truly the only bullpen logic we have in baseball. Man. It's just painful.

 

Yet they won. Maybe just maybe he’s right and you’re not. Or maybe the in game decisions don’t really matter too much and it’s players who wins games 

22 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Four years ago Javy Baez (OBP of .292, 130K to 15 BB, sub-800 OPS) and Trevor Williams (ERA >5.00) fetched Pete Crow-Armstrong.

I think many will be surprised at how much bats and average starting pitching will fetch, given the dearth of both of those.

No. You need to look at context on this one. Zack Scott (who?!) was the Mets GM for 7 months in 2021 and made that trade. Scott was elevated to GM when Jared Porter had been hired in November of ‘20 and quickly fired in late January ‘21 for sexting. Scott himself was arrested for DUI in August of 2021, placed on administrative leave and subsequently fired after the season in ‘21. This was on top of the whole Brodie Van Wagenen/Carlos Beltran fiascos. 
 

Despite being in complete disarray and without any real leadership, the Mets were themselves in the playoff race in ‘21 when a GM with little experience made a boner of a trade in retrospect . It is more an outlier than an indicator of what mediocre talent can reap in a potential trade. 

54 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

How long is it until we here if Payamps gets traded, pickup by another team, or excepts a demotion to AAA (I think those are the options? My thought is a week (from the 22nd). With the number of teams needing bullpen help I would think there would be a trade that at least saves the amount of money we still owe him this year.

With a 3 million dollar guarantee and an era over 8, nobody is going to trade for him and put him on their 26 man roster.  For the same reason he’s already cleared waivers.
 

I don’t think Payamps has enough service time to refuse being out-righted (and keep his salary), so I bet he will be sent to AAA to get his act together and maybe they call him back up again later. 

7 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I feel like sometimes there is a gap in expectations vs reality of selling. It's not so easy to just gut the team and build a super team for 2027 to 2030. They probably just get role players and salary relief for everyone besides Contreras and Peralta. The Contreras + Peralta trade would probably be like 3x the Burnes return. Which would be a nice setup but it would gut the team and waste a few seasons from some other players like Turang, Frelick, Hoskins, etc.

 

Anyway I'm still selling Peralta at the deadline but only if the deal is great and we are very low on playoff odds. I think it takes advantage of our competitive advantage of good defense and pitcher development and it's a sell high. I also wouldn't mind an extension for him though. 

They’ll trade Peralta eventually. It really depends on the players they’re offered if it’s this deadline or in the offseason.
 

Waiving the white flag by trading Peralta this July does have potential ramifications on ticket sales this year, suite renewals, etc. So the return would have to be clearly better than what they estimate would be possible in the offseason. 
 

There is no reason to trade Contreras now. He’s still years from free agency, having a down year at the plate due to injury and there is nobody behind him ready to start everyday in the majors. 

On 5/25/2025 at 5:19 PM, LouisEly said:

1) Hoskins isn't a free agent.  He has a mutual option for 2026.  Hoskins is 8th in MLB among primary 1B in wRC+; he will bring something "decent".

B) Starting pitching always brings something at the deadline.  The question with Cortes is if he will be ready in time to show teams that he's healthy.

He won’t bring anything “decent”. At 18 million dollars this season he will still be owed around 6 million dollars in salary, plus the 4 million dollar buyout in his mutual option for 2025. His BABiP of .360 is fueling his career season. Most likely between now and July it will regress towards his career norm of .275 (league average is .295).

Sure there is a chance a big market club could covet Hoskins as the final piece, but at 10 million dollars for 60+ game, if the Brewers trade him without including cash (good bet) the most likely return would be minimal. (The Cubs traded Bellinger to the deep pocketed Yankees and in return received a relief pitcher they released in spring training)
 

Frankly, the Brewers would be better off in the long run, keeping Hoskins, making a QO and taking the supplemental pick if he leaves. It certainly would be a higher pedigree of talent than they would get in any trade.
 
 

7 hours ago, nate82 said:

That is literally the return the Orioles should be expecting for someone like Ramon Urias.  You can expect maybe another 1.5 WAR for the remaining of the season from Urias.  That is literally in the range of someone like Black for a return.  You could even argue that Black would be an overpay for 1.5 years of Ramon Urias who will more than likely only be a half year rental as I don't believe he would be worth his final arbitration year.  So teams are going to look at Urias as a half year rental.  Urias is a sub .700 OPS 3B, I am not sure exactly what you think a sub .700 OPS 3B will get on the market but if you think it is someone better than Black then you are insane. 

No, my point is that there’s probably not much interest in Black period. He  hasn’t exactly kicked down the major league door, doesn’t have a real position on defense and has an history of being injured (321 games in 4 years as a professional). 

At this point because of the bonus they spent on him he’s likely worth more to Milwaukee than to anyone else.

1 hour ago, endaround said:

This would be the same management team that is batting him leadoff yes?

You know as well as anyone that batting order is a marginal tweak. He’s putting his most dynamic talent in the #1 spot. It’s Managing 101.

10 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

He's young and needs a professional hitting coach not the hacks we have on this overmatched coaching staff.

Come on, you can do better than this. If some dudes watching on TV can see pitchers aren’t throwing him at strikes because he’s overly aggressive and swings at everything, I am 100% the coaches and manager has told him the same. For a teacher to effective the pupil needs to be willing to learn. 

Chourio is bad. Pitchers don’t have to throw him strikes to get him to swing (he unloaded on a pitch so far inside it almost hit him). The 60 million dollars they owe him is sure looking like less and less of a bargain

15 hours ago, wallus said:

I made a thread for sellers, might as well do a Buyers one. With players coming back, I don't think we would need a ton. 

Brewers: R. Urias (BTV: 6.5)

Orioles: T. Black (Did not see any recent BTV valuations)

Ramon isn't a star by any means but he would likely provide competent production at 3rd base and he won't cost a ton. You also have team control for next season which I think is important. 

Brewers: I. Kiner-Falefa (BTV: -0.8)

Pirates: L. Lara (BTV: 4.3)

IKF is so smooth at SS and we would have amazing defense up the middle. He is a rental at a somewhat significant contract so that is why I am guessing BTV has a negative value for him. This would allow us to send Ortiz down for a reset in the minors.

I do not think the team needs any pitching at all. The main thing is to get guys back from injuries and get competent players to play SS and 3rd. With everyone back, you can squint enough to have a decent offense.

Turang: 2B

Chourio: LF

Contreras: C

Yelich: DH

Hoskins: 1B

Frelick: RF

Urias: 3B

Mitchell: CF

IKF: SS

It’s not as if Tyler Black is banging on the door to the majors and is blocked everywhere. He hasn’t been able to   crack the 26 man roster in Milwaukee where they have journeymen like Isaac Collins and Jake Bauers playing OF, and a revolving door at 3B.

Black is more valuable to the Brewers due to his cache as a former first round pick than he has in a trade to another club right now. 

11 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Please point out where I said he would get a blue chipper for Hoskins?

“Nice return”? You’re arguing  semantics now.
 

 Unless by “nice return” you mean receiving something in exchange besides just salary relief, but that’s setting the bar pretty low for what constitutes a “nice return” isn’t it?

@adambr2 is right, Hoskins is a rental bat who doesn’t run well or play particularly strong defense and has a large contract this year plus a buyout on a mutual option for next year. If the Brewers sell and trade him, the demand isn’t going to be there and it’s probably a minimal return and mostly salary relief. 

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Hoskins will get a nice return if he keeps hitting going into the deadline.

Doubt it. Maybe a player or two who are years away room the majors. Teams don’t trade blue chippers anymore, and certainly not for expensive rental hitters.

19 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Two weeks of appearances from middle of May to start of June 2023.

I think his case has merit.

Legally it’s an almost sure loser. I don’t understand how he can show the tarp roller on the field constitutes a dangerous condition  AND the Reds had notice (someone else got hurt there, or complained about it being a safety issue) of it being a safety issue. 

Then even if he could prove that, the  tarp roller is certainly, “open and obvious” and the Reds will argue he was equally careless for not using more caution when he approached. 
 

And he returned to play for Nashville that September, so it’s more probably true than not it was because he was an aging mediocre ball player that his career ended, not because of an injury he sustained running into an object on the field from which he returned to play professionally 2 months later. 

Sounds like a shake down to me; litigation is expensive and teams are afraid of any sort of negative publicity.
 

18 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Oh my! WHAAAT! We're in a small market! No!!!!! 

Has this EVER been disputed on this board by anyone?

Everyone on this board has already acknowledged this and was having a bit more of a nuanced discussion about the spending in Baseball and how it's grown from the Yount, Molitor days when you claimed the Brewers also couldn't spend on more than 1 or 2 players(but they could) and the inflation in salaries that you said...didn't exist. 

I'm not even sure what you're saying right now other than the sky appears to be blue. Of course it's a small market. 

Green Bay is also a small market. 

Right...or I fundamentally disagree with you. 

Yeah...no.

Starting backwards, the 50M dollar pool that each team pays 1.67M dollars into is what you're claiming raises the "salaries" of young players and funnels talent from the have nots to the haves? THEY'RE GETTING PAID OUT OF THE POOl. It's not doing ANY of that.

Expanded playoffs are BAD...because depth is more important and as such...teams with money benefit?

You're clearly arriving at a conclusion and working backwards. 

Here is the FULL extent of the argument that can be made that the 2022 CBA "Hurt" small market teams(if you're paying attention). 
 

The large market teams who pay into revenue sharing... each team contributes 48% of its local revenues—such as income from regional television contracts, ticket sales, and local sponsorships and they pool that money and distribute it.

Those teams were complaining that there were other teams who were not spending that money and the luxury tax jumped up from 210 to 230 and then small increments. 233, 236...etc...

They ALSO added two more thresholds to penaltize the top spending teams including the "Cohen" Tax, but that's the full extent of it. 

 

Trying to add on "higher salaries for pre-arbitration players," is...either you don't know where the money was coming from or you were being intellectually dishonest. The MOST it can cost a team is...again, 1.67M and it's not "funneling" young talent from the "haves to the have nots."

 

Softening rebuilds with a lottery has nothing to do with large or small markets. It's a draft lottery. It's trying to get rid of tanking. 

 

Yeah, I don't need to ask myself why the Brewers and literally every other team in pro sports are trying to generate revenue via jersey sales.

It's self explanatory and in absolutely no way addresses how the Brewers are "horrible" at marketing and have no heritage. 

As I said, that's such a silly thing to zero in on that it's not even worth debating, but NOW you're asking me why the Brewers try and sell different Jersey's? So is that them being horrible at their job or not?

 

So...I guess they shouldn't be trying to sell jersey's because... I don't know, I've lost your point in here. It's a bad thing to try and sell 12 different uniforms, something you apparently believe is unique to the Brewers but also, they've exhausted all avenues to make money(which would infer they're doing a good job, but again, I'm just trying to follow this argument here). 

 

I'm honestly not sure what point you're making at the end of this. 

You do you then. 
 

Baseball salaries grow exponentially: what you’re failing to realize a player who gets a pre-arbitration bonus now has a higher floor and when they eventually reach arbitration will undoubtedly file for a larger number based upon that floor in addition to other factors. So yes, it does hurt teams with limited payroll. 
 

Yeah baseball salaries have exploded since 1990 when Yount was MLB’s highest paid player. If that’s the “nuanced discussion” I’m sorry I thought that was pretty obvious 20 years ago and old news by now.

Sure, teams want to sell hats and jerseys, which his why the Brewers have a half dozen different uniforms.  The point you’re missing is there are only so many customers that want a hat and or jersey, and most of those people have a saturation point when they have bought enough hats and or jerseys. My point is in identifying additional ways to generate revenue when, like the Brewers, they have reached the saturation point for ticket sales, media rights, and merchandise and licensing, they are bad at it. But hey they’ll probably be rolling out the Cervaceros jerseys soon for those who have another $150 to burn in the Team Store.

14 hours ago, Brian said:

My point is... If Alexander is a stiff why does he pitch him 7 of the past 10 games. Murphy is just a plain old block head. 

14 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

So what about him riding Abner Uribe like he's rubber armed Hoby Milner? Since Uribe was activated from his suspension he's 1st in G and 13th in IP among relievers. Yesterday he had Uribe throw for the 3rd day in a row despite throwing 35 pitches the previous two days.

His SP typically has been good for about 90 pitches in his young career. Yesterday that got him through 4 2/3 innings. I’m sure Murphy didn’t plan to use Alexander yesterday but after covering 4 1/3 with the bullpen the game went to extras and he had no choice. Alexander’s role at the moment is to eat innings early in the game and when they are behind. Two things that have been happening more often now, so his appearances have spiked. 
 

Conversely, Uribe might be Murphy’s only relief ace and pitches almost exclusively late in games they are winning. Sure he pitched 3 days in a row  (all games they won) but before that he had three days off.

It seems like Murphy is working right out of the Manager 101 textbook .

10 hours ago, endaround said:

Yes but that day he was arguing with you. Today he is arguing with someone else so he needs to say something different to start an argument.

Haha nice try. It is the same team that won 90 games minus Wily Adames. The point is those players are playing like crap now. What is Murphy supposed to do? Pull the plug on their 26 million dollar man, for Isaac Collins? Bench a key piece from the Burnes trade for Monasterio? 
 

I don’t know what is so hard to understand. The talent level is the same players who won 90+ games yet but for a handful of players they have all played poorly.