LincolnDD
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Everything posted by LincolnDD
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I still think easy travel in and out of a location will matter some for AAA locations. Lack of decent flight options is one of the reasons Fresno is about to become a Low-A team. I don't know those regions, so I can't speak to if either fit well from the travel perspective. I think the alignment of AAA will matter some as well. Would a Beloit or Wisconsin AAA team be in an expanded International League, or part of a new middle America AAA league? Travel within just the Midwest/Midsouth vs. having to get to "smaller" IL cities like Syracuse or Worcester, or down to Jacksonville. It is an interesting question, especially considering one huge issue I still have. High A is going to have a twelve-team Midwest League, and three six-team leagues (Northwest, Carolina and Mid Atlantic). The Midwest League is currently sixteen teams, so four will have to go. The President of the team in South Bend gave an interview the other day where he reported some of what we already know: Burlington and Clinton will be cut, and Bowling Green will "possibly" be moving to another league. But nothing on the fourth team. It would be difficult to cram any of the remaining Midwest League teams into another league because nothing's really close. But you don't have to worry about that as much with AAA...
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Chattanooga and Jackson were on the original cut list, but the Ballpark Digest tracker has them both listed as "expected to renew". The tracker is a little sloppy though. Nashville-Jackson would be a nice pairing, distance-wide.
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I guess something wild could happen, but sure feels like it's back to Nashville at this point.
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You can probably bet on a Rangers-Round Rock reunion: However: Kevin Lyttle @klyttlesports What happens if @Rangers and @Express do not have a reunion? One rumor: San Antonio returns to Double-A Texas League and @Brewers top affiliate slides up from SA to RR. Yet that flies in the face of #MLB's geography angle for re-aligning Minor League Baseball. #Astros I assume the Rangers would stay in Nashville if they don't go to Round Rock. Does this mean the Brewers would end up with the affiliate the Rangers don't get, Nashville or Round Rock? Kinda sounds like it, but maybe I'm reading too much into it.
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Astros to Sugar Land unofficially official: And Rangers could then fill the void in Round Rock: https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2020/11/16/sources-rangers-reunion-with-aaa-round-rock-possible/
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I do think the Rangers end up back there, too. But balsamlaker's suggestion of Round Rock/San Antonio pairing is really intriguing. The guy from Ballpark Digest said the other day that the Cubs will keep Myrtle Beach, but it will be a Low-A team. I think that makes it safe to assume that Carolina will also make the classification move as well.
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I do think Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense in Rochester (I did that in my failed attempt to figure out the leagues a few weeks ago!), and that would certainly seem to benefit the Brewers, as the rest of the regional teams seem content with their current AAA affiliates. My guess is the Nats still end up there, but the Richmond whispers are pretty loud. I'm starting to think AA isn't going to see to many major shake-ups at this point, and I still think that points to the Brewers staying in Biloxi. Colorado likely to stay in Hartford: https://news.yahoo.com/minor-league-realignment-settles-look-113600973.html Wichita likely for the Twins (and Marlins in Pensacola, which we already knew):
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Rochester make the Twins departure official:
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And Cooper followed up with an article stating that Binghamton will still be the Mets' AA team, knocking down two long-standing rumors: -Binghamton isn't being cut, obviously -Brooklyn isn't getting promoted to AA (this likely means they'll be in a High A League with the new Yankees team). So the Mets and Yankees have made eight of the final 120 official. Trickle, trickle, trickle...
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Very interesting, thank you for sharing. The Augusta news isn't surprising. I was told that the Rays will be replacing the Yankees here in Charleston, with Charleston moving up to High A. I expect then that other teams close by (including Augusta) will be making the move up as well. The Richmond paper seems to think Richmond to AAA is still a possibility: https://richmond.com/sports/professional/squirrels-insecurity-mounts-as-yankees-leave-double-a-trenton-for-better-ballpark/article_f166be72-2004-5ef9-bd06-fce01a11c6d7.html That just muddles things up more. What's the fourth team with Fresno, Wichita and San Antonio that gets kicked out of AAA? All these media reports coming out now sure makes it seems like we're getting really, really close.
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So...probably not (right now). It's not impossible, just like the Somerset example you cited. Something to keep in mind, the new affiliation agreements teams will enter in to (I think they're calling them "licenses") give the MLB team an out at any point if they're not happy (e.g. facilities aren't being maintained). Of course, when a team opts out, chances of another team doing so at the same time are pretty slim. Because of that, teams would have the option of affiliating with any available organization, including independent teams, to fill the void. So say the Brewers stick with the Timber Rattlers, but a few years in, promised facilities improvements haven't been done, the Brewers could opt out and come to an agreement with the Milkmen.
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That's a really interesting idea. Probably depends on what the Rangers want. I know they really like Nashville.
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Yeah, the dude from Ballpark Digest was surprised how this news came out: https://ballparkdigest.com/2020/11/07/yankees-announce-affiliate-changes-in-first-glimpse-of-milb-overhaul/ So keep an eye on the Brewers' Twitter feed...
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Agreed on all counts, balsamlaker.
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Wow, Yankees just released a statement confirming last night's report, which also confirmed the rumors about the Florida State League going to Low A, and the presence of a High A League that stretches as far north as Fishkill, NY. https://twitter.com/Yankees/status/1325136222084165632/photo/1
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I'm still bullish on the idea that they stay in Carolina, only at the Low A level. I suppose if they wanted to divest themselves of that investment, now would be the time to do it. But all signs point to the only available Low A spot being in the Southeast, if that Ballpark Digest article is accurate, because there's no fitting into the other Low A leagues (Cal/FSL). I don't know if there will be any opportunity to get them closer at AA unless they do do something radical with league realignment (e.g. what we've played around with here, pulling some MWL teams into AA), but I haven't seen any tangible reporting to suggest that's happening. I'm still guessing they stay in Biloxi. They have been with that San Antonio ownership group for a while now, dating back to Colorado Springs, so maybe they'd ride it out with SA at AA? Maybe the Twins want to stay on the Gulf Coast after getting kicked out of Pensacola, and make a run for Biloxi? I feel like the news about the Yankees means the dam is about to burst on all this news.
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Major dominoes: Yankees shifting AA to Somerset, High A to Hudson Valley. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/yankees-moving-minor-league-affiliates-to-somerset-hudson-valley-in-2021/ BA further speculates that this frees up the Mets to shift AA to Brooklyn. So I guess it was a compromise, as both Somerset and Brooklyn fall into the shared territories of the two teams. So the Yankees are out of Trenton and Charleston (my home, not sad to see the Evil Empire leave, haha). Also gives a hint as to some of the geography of the new Mid Atlantic League. Hudson Valley is a little ways outside of NYC.
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Yeah, expansion wouldn't be an issue short-term, but if the Brewers do end up there, for a team that's been kicked around the AAA level for a while, it would be nice to see some stability, especially since the new agreements are going to be longer than the old 2 or 4 year player development contracts. Once expansion does come, maybe we'll see the new team opt to keep AAA in Nashville, similar to Atlanta and (soon) Houston having AAA teams relatively close. Those are in suburbs though, so not sure keeping a team within the city limits, presumably where the MLB team will be, makes sense. Then again, that's a very, very new stadium there. I wonder how willing the fine folks in Nashville would be to build another new stadium after just getting the Sounds done? There's also a non-zero chance that a team could relocate to Nashville (ahem, Rays). If it's Tampa, they can move their AAA team there as well, and the Brewers can replace them in Durham, right down the road from Zebulon.
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The issue there would be fitting Dayton into AA, as that would throw off the balance at that level. You'd have to find another AA team to move/cut. Dayton's also on the fringe of the two regional AA leagues, which may be an issue with the reported stricter travel restrictions being put in place for the minors. I'll throw this out there, though. With Monday's report about a new High A "Mid Atlantic" league, maybe Brooklyn just gets a bump to High A rather than AA? That same report has the Mets current High A team in St. Lucie moving down to Low A, so the Mets would need a new High A affiliate. Then the Mets slot into Hartford for AA. You could then shift Dayton into Binghamton's old Eastern League slot, and maybe even cut the Eastern League into two separate leagues to account for the new travel rules: Eastern League: Akron, Altoona, Bowie, Dayton, Erie, Richmond Northeast League(?): Harrisburg, Hartford, New Hampshire, Portland, Reading, Trenton Brewers to Bowling Green Reds to Dayton Mets to Hartford Marlins to Pensacola Diamondbacks/Rockies/Twins to some combo of Biloxi/San Antonio/Wichita
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I have no idea how this is going to work for the Midwest League. Even if the Carolina and Mid Atlantic both also land at six teams like the Northwest, leaving the Midwest the remaining twelve High A slots, that's still four teams to cut. Assume Clinton and Burlington are kicked as initially reported, and Bowling Green moves up to AA, that's still one more to dump, and I don't know who that would be. I don't even see another opportunity to promote a team to another league, so it would have to be a cut/contraction. It's not hard to scribble out what the minors will look like in 2021 at AAA, AA and Low A (Low A we know who/where will be in the Cal and Florida leagues, and the remaining twelve will be somewhere in the Southeast, even if we can't pinpoint every city), but High A is a mess to try to figure out.
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I've heard the Angels love it in RC, but it would be nice to be there, especially if AAA ends up in Nashville, less than two hours away. I do think Biloxi stays. There's no regional (or even "kinda regional") team that makes sense to put there, assuming the Braves, Rays, Astros and Rangers stay where they are. Though I could imagine a wonky scenario where the Brewers end up in Rochester for AAA, which means it might make more sense to move AA to Hartford (sending the Rockies to Wichita, with the Twins moving down the road from Pensacola to Biloxi). That seems unlikely though, and I think the preference would be to keep Biloxi and hopefully Nashville, much better weather cities, especially early season. And it sounds like AA will overall be pretty stable. My guess is the Twins end up taking over Wichita if the Marlins do boot them from Pensacola. Mets to Brooklyn with Binghamton gone, and I guess Arizona to San Antonio with Jackson cut. That just leaves the Reds if Chattanooga is still out. If Chattanooga and Jackson are still dumped, and Jacksonville moves to AAA, that leaves the Southern League at seven teams, which probably means the early rumor about Bowling Green moving to AA as a Reds affiliate is likely(?).
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You're welcome! Thanks for not being annoyed by this
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Always a chance the Mudcats are dropped a level & join the Saally League (makes more geographic sense then Appleton in Sally or another Low A league).. Yeah, good call. So the Brewers stay in both Wisconsin and Carolina, but the levels are swapped. The article did say that some MLB-owned affiliates could also end up being cut. But I think it makes more sense to drop Carolina down a level. The Brewers aren't going to California or Florida for Low A (we can pretty much figure out the teams in those leagues), so they'll be in the South Atlantic League.
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Should be thirty for Low A: 8 + 12 + 10 Thanks for the hat tip! I find this stuff fascinating, but I'm always afraid I annoy people with all the posts on this, haha. I'm glad some find it interesting.
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If I had to guess now, I think the Brewers end up back in Nashville for AAA.