LincolnDD

The way I read it, all current agreements (player development contracts) between teams and affiliates will be voided once September rolls around because the current governing agreement between MLB and MiLB expires. All MiLB teams will essentially be free agents (with the exception of those with MLB ownership). So if San Antonio gets dropped to AA and Biloxi stays at AA, the Brewers would have to choose one or the other for AA, or end up with an entirely new AA affiliate (and new AAA). The Brewers agreements with both affiliates were to end at the conclusion of this season anyway. But teams with agreements that extend beyond this year (e.g. the Rangers have a four-year agreement with Nashville that expires after 2022) would no longer be contracted with one another. This Fall will likely be one gigantic affiliation shuffle, like the one were used to seeing every two years -- on steroids. But then we'll never really see anything like that again, as it's expected that this change will lead to a lot of long-term relationships between mlb teams and affiliates.

Hopefully time has healed those hard feelings. Nashville is one of the best spots in AAA. If the rumored move of Sugar Land to affiliated ball as the Astros' AAA team team happens, the Rangers likely go back to Round Rock. Couple that with the rumor that San Antonio could get demoted back to AA, and the Brewers will need a new AAA home. A move back to Nashville would be close to ideal.

Sure, that's a possibility. Maybe facilities are a better draw in Spokane (don't know) and Fresno (probably; it's a AAA-caliber stadium)? Seems like it would be more complicated to divest themselves of two teams, though. Anything I'm missing that would make them prefer Spokane? I'll note that the Rockies are currently affiliated with Lancaster, and that guys who are part of the ownership group of the Fresno Grizzlies are also part of the Colorado Rockies ownership group, so in a scenario where Lancaster is cut and replaced by Fresno in the Cal, the Rockies make sense as new partners there for several reasons. The push for more geographic-friendly alignment seems to be one goal of the milb makeover, so I would think the West Coast teams get first hack at available affiliates on the West Coast.

Yep, seems like we'll see a good bit of realignment at the Low-A level. I think the Rangers own the Hickory team, so I'm not sure we'll see a change there. They also own their High A team in Kinston (Down East), so my guess is they'll hang on to those for some regional relationship (easy to move players and roving instructors between the two), if teams have a say over their new affiliate structure.

True. The Southern League used to have a presence in the Carolinas, but it has migrated more to the West now. That being said, we could see some significant realignment. Ultimately, I don't know if more AA in the Southeast makes a lot of sense (if the goal is to get affiliates closer to their parent clubs), but there are some plausible markets. I live in Charleston SC, and there has been some lobbying here in the past for a more advanced minor league team. I think the market could handle it (seems stronger than my previous home in a dying AA market in Binghamton); ditto Columbia up the road from here. They could pull regional teams from nearby AA leagues (e.g. Jacksonville, Tennessee (Knoxville), Richmond) in addition to promoting some SAL/Carolina franchises and spin up a new league. That's probably more extreme than what we'll end up seeing, but I think anything is possible.

Requesting Carolina to AA seems plausible, like the Mets want to do in Brooklyn. That's the kind of stuff I expect to see.

MiLB's president recently said more than half of the teams in minor league baseball could be facing "bankruptcy, foreclosures, and asset transfers". https://www.msn.com/en-us/Sports/mlb/minor-league-baseball-as-we-know-it-may-be-gone/ar-BB16l4ao?ocid=sf Hard to see how they can do anything regarding realignment/contraction when there are so many question marks regarding the future of 80+ teams.

I'd be pretty confident in the status quo, with Wisconsin and Carolina. I think Biloxi has been discussed here, but I'd put that as a safe keep as well. Not as confident in AAA staying in San Antonio though. I don't know what to make of this from that article though: Presuming there'd still have to be some geographic limitations at Low A, Advanced A and AA (e.g. the Giants can't make San Jose a AA team), what's there to stop a team from requesting a AAA wherever they want? -Can the Marlins request Jacksonville as their new AAA? -Could the Nationals do the same and request Richmond as their AAA affiliate, even though it's a AA team that's not currently affiliated with them? -Could the Orioles decide they want their AAA affiliate aligned with one of their other closer affiliates (like Bowie), and if no other team expressed interest there as an AAA team, would Norfolk then have no say and have to accept a demotion (or contraction)? I'm probably overthinking this, but it sounds like it could be pretty crazy.

Now that an MLB season has been agreed on, the MiLB restructure talks can be expected to start up again. BA covered that today: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlbs-proposed-120-milb-teams-for-2021-may-include-some-surprises/

Appleton could still be something of a travel nightmare, but who knows.

I think you're right about MLB's feelings on occupancy. MLB isn't gonna care if fans are crammed into a small stadium, sitting on metal bleachers and fighting over a small handful of bathrooms, as long as their prospects have nice, large facilities. So we could very well see fits we're not used to seeing (like Fresno, likely going to be a High A team playing in a huge AAA-caliber stadium). I think AAA will be a little different, though; travel will still matter. If you bump Beloit up to AAA, they finish a homestand, and then have to play on the road several states away the next day, what would the travel be like? I think the reason Fresno is getting dropped down is because travel within the PCL is a PITA. And if a MLB team is in the middle of a series in San Diego and need to call a player up from a place like Beloit, how long would that take? Bus-only leagues, it may make sense to kick a short-season team all the way up to AA in order to make travel easier, but AAA probably still makes more sense in larger cities with bigger airports (imo).

I doubt we'll hear anything for a while. I think the current agreement (Professional Baseball Agreement (PBA)) expires at the end of September, so they've got time. And of course everyone on the MLB side right now is working on trying to put together a MLB season, so no focus on MiLB currently. It's also possible (likely?) that some MiLB teams will fold/self-contract because they're not making any money, so that's another reason it may take a little while as they wait out that process. In that case we could see some MLB jump in and buy those teams on the brink of collapse (despite MLB owners crying poor ).

D'oh! Sorry about that! Not from the area and unfamiliar with the geography, it was easier to think "Grand Rapids" when I was playing around with this and looking at the map a lot.

I think this is really interesting. I read once that West Michigan was being considered as a AA team for Detroit (and unfortunately can't find the link now), but haven't really seen any other mention. I've also read Bowling Green could be promoted to AA (Southern League) as a Reds affiliate. Otherwise, I haven't seen any mention of replacements at that level. But your look at those Midwest league teams as promotion candidates is a great idea (and h/t to balsamlaker as well). Not sure any really fit in AAA, but AA makes a ton of sense Would everyone like to see a new Midwest AA league, to get the Brewers closer? Just playing around with it, building off what you wrote: New six team AA Great Lakes League: Akron - Cleveland (Pulling from current AA Eastern League; this makes more sense geographically) Dayton - Cincinnati Grand Rapids - Detroit These are currently affiliations, so I'll keep them this way, especially if Detroit (Erie) and Cincinnati (Chattanooga) really are losing their current AA teams. Plus, they're all great geographic fits. Could be different (I don't think Appleton looks like a AA city imo), but how about this to flush out the league: Fort Wayne Kane County Lansing Maybe a West Coast team would show interest (Arizona currently at Low-A Kane County and potentially losing AA Jackson), but let's say MLB is "encouraging" Central/Midwest teams to affiliate in this league and is giving them precedence. Let's assume the White Sox are happy with Birmingham (been there for years). The Pirates stay in Altoona in the EL, KC the same in the Texas League. St. Louis owns their Texas League team, so they stay put. Thus the Brewers, Cubs and Twins are vying for those three cities. What would your preference be?

Great points. If the Brewers are happy in Biloxi, I think they could stay. I don't think MLB will force teams out. The White Sox seem to be happy where they are at all levels, even if there are better AAA fits (e.g. Indianapolis) and Low-A (the entire Midwest League). I doubt MLB would make them leave Charlotte and Kannapolis (in NC, along with their High A team) if they don't want. Biloxi doesn't seem to have any logical geographic fits anyway. Maybe the Marlins if their current AA home in Jacksonville is bumped up to AAA, but Pensacola would make more sense in any sort of forced realignment. Given there aren't any AA teams west of Texas, there are going to be bad fits at that level regardless, so that seems like the level most likely to have geographic flexibility. MLB is planning on a six-team Low A league in the northwest for the West Coast MLB teams, though I've read there may not be enough interest (a lot of West Coast teams are reportedly happy where they're at in the MW and SAL). I do think that if it happens, Vancouver goes to Low A and stays a Blue Jays affiliate. I think Toronto is happy in Buffalo at AAA, but put a lot of value in having a Canadian affiliate, even if it's so far away. And aside from Seattle, who already has a close AAA affiliate, hard to seem another team who would want to align with Vancouver at AAA, imo. Syracuse has crappy attendance and certainly seems like a good demotion candidate, but they're also owned by the Mets, and MLB team ownership seems to be the saving grace for MiLB teams (only one on the original contraction list had a MLB owner). That would also potentially leave the Mets with two AA teams if Brooklyn is promoted. I did read once that the Yankees would exercise their veto power over the Mets putting a AA team in Brooklyn, but would be fine with a Low-A team there, so could possibly leave Syracuse as a demotion candidate in that scenario. So San Antonio demoted, replaced at AAA by Sugar Land; Fresno demoted, replaced by St. Paul; Wichita demoted, replaced by Jacksonville; Syracuse demoted, replaced by who? Maybe Hartford? Richmond (for Nats, with Twins in St. Paul and Mets in Rochester)? It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Sad for a lot of cities, but still interesting.

Great point. In terms of placing prospects in high quality facilities, it would be hard to do better than these two places. Nashville is regarded as one of the top AAA teams for player facilities (along with Vegas), and Rocket City is obviously brand new. That really helps when trying to attract those vet minor league free agents. And if they really are going to spin up a new AAA league in the Midwest, that just makes Nash even more attractive (far less travel strain). I follow MiLB pretty closely, and having roots in upstate NY, I heard a lot last year about how the Mets ping-ponged a lot of their upper minors depth between Syracuse and Binghamton all season long. So having AAA and AA so close to each other in Nashville and RC would be another nice advantage to have. The Brewers were the last MLB team to affiliate in the Huntsville area (since this season hasn't started and probably won't), so it would be a nice dual homecoming to go back there and Nashville at the same time. And the Trash Panda is probably the most popular MiLB logo outside of Durham's Bulls, so that's reason enough to go there, haha. They've done a fantastic job or marketing. I just got my RCTP shirt in the mail yesterday!

yes both are up for renewal. Brewers have a good relationship with S.A.'s ownership group but good chance that Rocky Mountain Vibes gets contracted. Biloxi seems happy with the brewers, but brewers minor league system is a shell of its former self and they do have a good facility. I don't think renewal status will matter after this year because the current agreement between MLB and MiLB expires in September and is going to be completely revamped. Pretty much every MiLB team that isn't owned by a MLB team will be a "free agent", though MLB will do a lot of pairing this time around instead of teams courting each other. The affiliation shuffle we've grown used to isn't really going to exist anymore. Geography will keep the Brewers with the Timber Rattlers, and ownership will keep them with the Mudcats. But AA and AAA are complete unknowns at this point.

That's very interesting. I'd read about Fresno, San Antonio and Wichita all being demoted, but only heard about Sugar Land and St. Paul being added to AAA. I'd personally speculated about it, but that the first I've heard of it outside of my own brain (haha). Makes a ton of sense. So Marlins to Jacksonville. Twins to St. Paul. Astros to Sugar Land. Rangers back to Round Rock? Without any other moves, that's Nashville and Rochester up for grabs for the Brewers and Nationals. Feels like the last affiliation shuffle all over again...

The Royals have been in Omaha for fifty(!) years. Not sure they'd be all that willing to leave. I think I'd rather see Indianapolis if they're throwing out existing affiliations; well within NL Central territory. I've read the initial plan has Wichita demoted to AA, though I'm sure a lot has changed since those plans were written up.

I think it is. I guess more recent negotiations have included one short-season level above the complex leagues if enough teams are interested, but geography is a really big strike against maintaining the Pioneer League even if that were to happen. I think the PL and the Appy are both toast. With the Northwest League reportedly getting the bump up to Low A, the NY-Penn would probably handle what remains of short-season under a new Professional Baseball Agreement (as suggested by Keith Law in an article today). Maybe the two teams they dump from the NWL (especially if Boise is one) could join a new league with some of the PL teams if there's enough interest? Probably still would hurt CS though. Which is a shame, as that's arguably one of the better facilities in short-season ball.

Yep https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2020/04/01/coronavirus-crisis-could-see-many-minor-league-teams-shut-down-for-good/?subId3=xid:fr1585742685521hhd#5aaf352664e4

I don't know that Seattle would be all that interested in sacrificing some solid pieces just to move salary. Doesn't feel like their MO. They've either taken slightly worse contracts back in some of their big contract deals (Bruce/Swarzak for Cano, Santana for Segura, Encarnacion for Santana) or paid a good chunk of what's remaining on others they traded (Leake, Encarnacion, Bruce). They did attach Diaz to the Cano deal, but from what I understand, that was all about getting Jarred Kelenic.

I actually thought about the Segura+/Crawford+ trade between Philly and Seattle last year when I saw this thread title. So not sure if Seattle specifically would be interested, but something of a similar situation. Probably not fair to comp Arcia and Crawford, but both were highly-ranked ss prospects who haven't lived up to expectations thus far.

I doubt it. They don't seem particularly motivated to move McNeil; I can't imagine that offer would change their minds.

Would the Marlins trade Brian Anderson?