LincolnDD
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Everything posted by LincolnDD
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Haha, no. Like PF said, Davis is a DH. He's positionally flexible in that you can put him in LF or 3B, but he stinks in either spot. Gimenez is interesting but doesn't really fill a need. And Oswalt is pretty much just a warm body.
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Scuttlebutt has the Mets more likely to spend on free agents rather than trade prospects from a mediocre farm system. Their GM last week on MLB radio: "There are only two currencies in baseball -- players and money. And right now (in) the upper levels of our system, we don't have the players. We have some money, at this point. And so, we're going to sort of balance those two things. But our focus is going to be -- that's why we expect to be somewhat active in the free agent market, as opposed to the trade market. We don't want to give up our young guys."
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I'm having a hard time pinning down how the leagues will turn out. We still don't know how many teams will be in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest Leagues (and this assumes the Northwest League is going to drop to six). Ballpark Digest still seems insistent that there will be four High-A Leagues (in their email newsletter last Wednesday, they wrote: "the league realignments were [sic] detailed weeks ago will happen"), while Baseball America has reported there will be three. Ballpark Digest has the Marlins in Asheville and the Pirates staying in Greensboro. Because both own their Florida State League teams that are heading to Low-A, that seems to suggest Asheville and Greensboro in High A. They also hint at the Nationals in Wilmington, which would presumably be High-A, which I guess would mean Fredericksburg in Low-A? I've also heard the Indians are likely to stay in Lynchburg, and since there's no real chance they leave Lake County at High A, that would put Lynchburg in the SAL. Just a lot of confusion right now, even as we get close(?) to a final announcement.
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Ha, yeah, I saw that. And Cooper wasn't playing around with that "announcement" at all.
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Yeah, things have certainly quieted down in the last fews days. A little too quiet? A few teams have started trolling on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Pelicanbaseball/status/1334301575158910976, https://twitter.com/WSDashBaseball/status/1335028112128663553,
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I think it would either have to be a bad contract swap, or they'd have to sacrifice a prospect or two to sweeten the deal, like the Angels/Giants Cozart deal last off-season. Agree with BestInTheWorld on Jays and Mets. Swap for Grichuk? Looks like he's got about $31m owed over the next three seasons, per Baseball Reference. An extra year commitment, but the money is spread out, so more flexibility in 2021, and overall savings about $4m. With Cano suspended, most of the Mets' ugly money is tied up in mediocre relievers (Familia, Betances), and looks like they were on the fence about tendering Matz. Maybe Betances and Matz (~$11m next year, both FAs after the season) for Cain and Lauer?
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Gotcha. I don't necessarily agree, despite MLB's motivation to get this done, I think they could've come to a one-year extension agreement had they anticipated it stretching out this long. And I think the MiLB side would've been very open to it, if just to give teams an opportunity to promote one final season. I don't think most teams have any grounds to follow the Staten Island Yankees' lead in launching lawsuits, but I do think there will be some legal issues they'll have to deal with that wouldn't have otherwise come up if this had been handled better. My $0.02 of course.
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It's my understanding that the PDA that expired in September originated in 1990, and it's been extended multiple times (rather than renegotiated). If that's the case, because the pandemic disrupted the process and forced a lot of MLB's attention towards trying to get a workable MLB season, they could've extended the PDA another year (like they've extended it before) rather than try to rush the most significant changes to the minors in decades. It's clearly been a cluster, and extending it a year would've theoretically made for a smoother transition. That was my argument, anyway. I think BA even explained during this process that extending the agreement (even month by month) during current negotiations was on the table, along with coming to a new agreement, or simply walking away and spinning up a new player development system from scratch.
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I think the minors do need some modernization and reorganization, but MLB has handled these changes horribly. Given the pandemic, they should've pushed these changes out a year, along with all player development contracts that expired after the 2020 season that didn't happen, to give themselves ample time to work this plan. Getting the 2020 MLB season going required so much extra work that MiLB and this reorg didn't get the attention it needed. FWIW, I don't think Fresno is negotiating for a chance to stay in AAA. I think they're negotiating with the city of Fresno over the stadium lease and trying to determine if running as a Low-A team is a viable option for both sides. Everything else at AAA looks pretty much set. I can't imagine they'd blow it all up at this point. Though, to your point, MLB has bungled this whole thing, so I guess anything is possible.
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Staten Island announced today that they're "ceasing operations" (and suing both MLB and the Yankees...). I wouldn't be surprised if another team ends up in the stadium (Independent League?) but the current entity is no more. Port Charlotte is a relatively new entry to the contraction list, apparently pushed out by Daytona. There have also been some rumblings that Chattanooga may be safe, though I don't know what the corresponding move would be at AA; could also see Chattanooga end up in the SAL or Carolina League. I've heard Kane County might not be safe.
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I think the Brewers are in better shape than at least a handful of other teams, especially now with AAA apparently cleaned up. There still seems to be some confusion for a lot of the teams out west about who their High-A teams will be, and ditto with the Florida teams. Will Rome be a High-A or Low-A team for the Braves? Who's gonna be the Reds' AA team? Still a lot of major question marks out there. *Maybe* we see a change at AA, but I don't think we will. Only four teams have the complete list "confirmed" at BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-minor-league-baseball-affiliation-chart/ December 8th now? That sucks for us following along, but it's absolute garbage for teams who don't know what's in store for them in 2021, and ALL teams still have to make schedules, plan promotions, etc. Can't say I'm surprised, but just awful, awful handling by MLB.
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Ballpark Digest just updated the tracker, and they've got the Brewers in Nashville, Rangers back in Round Rock. No question marks, no "mystery team", no "interesting twist". They've got "expected to continue" for Biloxi, though that's been the default for most of the teams. At AA, aside from the San Antonio and Wichita demotions, they suggest Bowie could be out as the O's AA affiliate, and Frederick back from the initial cut list to land as Baltimore's AA team. Jackson also looks to be in trouble, but Chattanooga looks like they might be safe now. The Ballpark Digest guy said in a tweet this morning that we could finally get the list of 120 tomorrow or Friday. I'd still bet on Nashville-Biloxi-Wisconsin-Carolina. https://ballparkdigest.com/200905261902/minor-league-baseball/news/affiliate-dance-2012
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BA/JJ Cooper is now hearing 180-player limit domestically: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-expected-to-expand-milb-player-limit-for-full-season-clubs/
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...and Wichita is out as a AAA option as well.
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I've seen 150 as the total number of minor league players, but I can't remember where I saw it. And like MadThinker said, it's not finalized. This all feels so rushed, so I don't think anyone really knows how this will all play out. Players remaining in the draft league, post draft, is interesting. I guess it's not completely unprecedented, as players still play in the College World Series after being drafted. Like CBF suggested, I think we may see a mix of outcomes. Some players will stay in the league, others will go to the complexes, and some of the more advanced players end up in Low A. I read the Pioneer League is going to install more technology. I'm sure that's more for player evaluation, but hopefully that leads to more "televised" games.
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That's interesting. What would be the swap at AAA with Gwinnett dropping? Wisconsin? Beloit? Could the Cubs elevate one of the MWL teams (Kane County in the Chicago burbs?), and leave Iowa, opening that up for the Brewers?
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Yep. Looks like it was a premature note. So no more Vibes as an affiliate. Big drop from an AAA city just a few years ago. Ballpark Digest has been hinting at the Astros moving to Beloit. And now A's beat writer Susan Slusser has Oakland potentially headed to Lansing, with the Jays staying in Vancouver.
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Hagerstown will *probably* be the sixth team in the league. Big drop for Trenton. The Pioneer League is officially a "partner league": https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-pioneer-league-designated-mlb-partner-league?tcid=tw_article_
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Here's the ugly side of this mess: https://www.fresnobee.com/sports/mlb/fresno-grizzlies/article247444700.html MLB has told Fresno that if the Grizzlies want to stay in affiliated ball, then they have to agree to the shift to Low-A (as a Rockies affiliate). The decision deadline is Monday, November 30th. More or less confirms the drop in classification for the California League. It also suggests that things still aren't quite finalized yet.
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Yes, I think twelve each makes sense. I don't think the math on the SAL changes from before. The California League still seems set to land at eight teams, and the Florida State League at ten teams, so twelve in the SAL looks like a safe bet. And yeah, I also think the Mudcats still end up there. I could see the MAL at either ten or twelve, depending on whether they drop the MWL by two or four teams. And that's assuming they still plan to drop two teams from the NWL. So who knows. I'd be pretty confident in this point with Nashville-Biloxi-Wisconsin-Carolina, but still time for things to change. The BA article says we should know something by the first week of December, so hopefully word drops soon.
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Well, go ahead and disregard my High A stuff. JJ Cooper is reporting there will be three High A Leagues: Northwest, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-nears-decision-on-120-full-season-minor-league-clubs-for-2021/ I still think this ends with Carolina at Low A, but we'll see.
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Yeah, for sure. Could see any of those Virginia teams in the new league. The President of Lynchburg disputes that they're on the chopping block, but sometimes where there's smoke... He also said he thinks all of those Virginia teams end up in the SAL. I think he's just guessing like we all are, but his guess probably carries more weight: Brooklyn and Hudson Valley have already been confirmed for the Mid Atlantic League. I'm pretty confident Jersey Shore and Wilmington get there, based on geography. I'd say Aberdeen is most likely, though any one of the current Orioles affiliates in Maryland could end up here as the fifth team. It's the sixth one that's hard to figure. Could be Lowell (see the article I posted earlier), could be Tri-City or West Virginia Black Bears (neither were on the initial contraction list), could be Frederick (was on the cut list, but nice facilities). Maybe even another independent team?
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The rumor is there will be four High-A Leagues, including the Carolina League, with many teams switching classification between High and Low A: https://ballparkdigest.com/2020/11/07/let-the-affiliate-dance-begin/ Northwest League at six teams mentioned here: https://ballparkdigest.com/2020/11/02/details-of-mlb-takeover-of-milb-emerge/ Mid-Atlantic League at six teams mentioned here: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/binghamton-brooklyn-survive-as-mets-announce-2021-minor-league-affiliates/ The Midwest League at twelve teams is mentioned here: That leaves six for the Carolina League, so that was my logic there. The first link I shared also mentions the South Atlantic League would be twelve teams. I also removed the teams in that region that were on the original hit list (Frederick, Hagerstown, Lexington, West Virginia Power) to get the teams to this breakdown, and moved two others to the new Mid-Atlantic League. Here's my guess at the Mid-Atlantic League, fwiw, though no real idea on the sixth team, so I just put Trenton there for now. Could be Lowell, like that other article said. Could be Tri-City or West Virginia Black Bears, not on the original hit list: Aberdeen – Orioles Brooklyn – Mets Hudson Valley – Yankees Jersey Shore – Phillies Trenton – Rays Wilmington – Nationals
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I was told that Myrtle Beach is moving to Low-A (still as a Cubs affiliate). Likewise, Ballpark Digest reported that the Astros were going to stay in the Midwest League (for High A), and that's pertinent because they own their Carolina League High A affiliate, just like the Brewers do. Knowing that, I think it's pretty easy to connect the dots with the Mudcats being in that region, and them moving to the South Atlantic League seems like a pretty safe bet. I posted this on another site the other day. It's my stab, based on some rumors and some wild guesses, at what the new Low-A South Atlantic League will look like. It includes seven teams dropping from the Carolina League: Augusta – Braves Carolina – Brewers Charleston – Rays Columbia – Royals Delmarva – Orioles (this could be any one of the four Orioles affiliates in Maryland, so used Delmarva by default) Down East – Rangers Fayetteville – Astros Fredericksburg – Nationals Kannapolis – White Sox Lynchburg – Indians Myrtle Beach – Cubs Salem – Red Sox And the six-team Carolina League: Asheville – Marlins Greensboro – Pirates Greenville – Red Sox Hickory – Rangers Rome – Braves Winston-Salem – White Sox Double-A, I don't know. I'd still bet on Biloxi, but who knows.
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The more important question is the quality and size of the player facilities. I don't think there's going to be as much emphasis on fan experience going forward, so the old required rules for AAA probably won't matter as much. I'd assume the clubhouse+ in the new Beloit stadium is being built to match the new requirements. Don't know about the one in Appleton, though it was good enough for the Brewers to use this past season for their player pool. I'm not buying the rumor that the Dodgers are leaving Great Lakes yet: Ballpark Digest sends out an occasional email newsletter, and one from last Friday reported that the A's, Dodgers and Padres all "fought moves" from the Midwest League. That's a problem when MLB wants the six-team Northwest League to be all Western teams, and three of the eight (I'm not counting Houston and Texas) don't want to go. On another site I frequent, we hypothesized that maybe the Blue Jays would agree to be the sixth team in the NWL so they can keep the only Canadian minor league team, in Vancouver. So maybe West Michigan up to AAA, with the Tigers moving High A to Lansing to replace the Jays? Or just bump Lansing up. Of course, now you have to make another move at AAA, demoting or contracting another existing team. Reportedly one of the last decisions to be made on the final 120 involved the Jays: