CrewFanBrewMan69

We shouldn’t expect anything out of Jimmy. Shoulder/labrum injuries are the kiss of death for most pitchers, even if they come back they usually aren’t the same. I think Davies is a FIP beater and he’s a solid anchor for a 3.7-4.1 era, which every rotation needs, his ceiling is probably last year but his floor isn’t all that far off assuming health. Idk what to make of Anderson and I also agree he’s a prime regression candidate, already 30, history of injuries, never even close to 170 innings let alone 200, he added 2 MPH across the board on all his pitches last year which who knows if that stays (especially if he finally does stay healthy and hits an all time innings high). We need more pitching badly. If we go in the season with the current options I could see it hard for us to hit much more than 80 wins, no matter how much we’ll hit.

This is very much how I look at it and interpret it. He could still be a good surface stat guy but there's red flags on him. I guess an unknown here could be if the FO/Johnson feel they could help add or improve a pitch to get guys off his FB and/or mitigate against a slider decline. Maybe they feel the can get his current changeup to be more effective (or even just tell him he has to throw it more to keep batters honest) or mix in a lower velocity variant of his current slider? Repeating myself and like you said, the GB rate, hard hit/batted ball profiles, only one elite pitch/dependence are major concerns but I'm willing to take the risk..... I think And I know we all have shiny new toy love for the prospects, but I'm a pretty big believer in selling high on most pitching prospects since they usually blow up or never hit their potential so if we lose 2 of Burnes, Ortiz, Perlata, Woodruff, Diplan so what. It's likely worth.

I think this is a really dumb rule that's going to have a nominal effect on game time, we're talking maybe 10 minutes in the most extreme cases??? I also don't see how this brings in new or keeps any viewers/fans. Mound visits are part of the strategy and serve a purpose to make sure guys are on the same page on top of making sure there's no pitch tipping/sign stealing/etc.

I'm not a big Colome fan. He's certainly solid but I think his 2017 is more what he is than his great 2016 and think you'd have to pay a premium because he has all those saves the last two years, which is one of the dumbest stats ever. Looking at Colome's stats from 2016 to 2017 it wouldn't overly surprise me to see a similar dip from Knebel this year. Certainly he will remain effective and is fine as a closer, just not put up such crazy numbers and have some regression.

Has Archer been great, yes. Will he continue to be great, he certainly could but there's also some underlying things that you could see how he could fade fast (but you can say that about just about any pitcher). He's essentially a 2 pitch pitcher (FB/Slider) if effectiveness or velo go on one or both he could be in trouble since he doesn't seem to have a deep repertoire to make up for it, he's gone pretty much 200 innings the last 4 years, he had a slight velo drop 2 years ago but regained it last year, he throws a pitch (slider) at a very high usage rate and velocity that some think can lead to arm problems, he has problems going third time through the order which almost all non-great pitchers do (but we'd be expecting him to be an elite guy), he allows pretty hard contact when he does allow contact, he has an okay but not elite GB rate. Those are the arguments and a lot of them do worry me but he currently is quite good and his contract is really good and he's worth the risk/acquisition cost to me but it's worth noting that there are things that when he does fall and loses some velo/effectiveness (especially on the slider) the fall could come fast and steeper than we'd expect or generally see from pitcher performance/aging curves.

The problem with hanging onto him is that there just isn't enough spots for everyone. Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Thames all deserve to be playing every day if healthy. Then you have guys like Phillips and Aguilar that arguably could be getting regular playing time. There's only four spots available. Even if you jettison Aguilar and say Phillips is your 4th outfielder, that's still 5 guys for four spots. If your answer is to platoon Braun and Thames, then you are taking one of the team's top bats out of the lineup every day. I'd be happy to keep him around too but think his best value right now is probably to use him to grab a pitcher. But if he is kept there's plenty of playing time for everyone outside of Aguilar. People have been saying this about the Cubs the last 3 years with Schwarber/Almora/Happ/Heyward/Zobrist/Russell/Baez and Fowler 2 years ago and Jay last year that they have too many guys and not enough spots but it ends up that everyone ends up getting their time and it makes sense in the end. Guys are going to get hurt, regress or just not be good. It's not bad to have depth and it's never bad to give guys more rest overall than having to play 150-155+ games not only to stay healthier but also optimize performance in the splits various guys have. Braun should probably be depended on for closer to 120 games than 140 games both in terms of how he's aging/getting hurt and keeping him fresh, Cain is 32 and we just made a long term investment in him he probably should be given adequate rest, there's going to be lefties you want to sit Yelich against, Thames should never play vs lefties, if Domingo is here you're going to want to pull him for defense and sit him vs some RHP, Broxton should only start vs LHP and be a defensive replacement, and Phillips is a bit of an unknown but has been a high K guy everywhere for the last 3 years so there's going to be certain types of pitchers to shield him against. And really neither of Broxton/Phillips should be depended on outside of depth to begin the year with intention to contend since they both just might not be good/platoon guys and if one guy has to play in AAA most of the year or only ends up with ~40 starts or being a late inning defensive/base running guy so be it, it likely means other guys are healthy and performing well.

Welcome! Very well thought out first post. Look forward to hearing more from you. Thanks! Look forward to being here and having some good discussions with the board, it's definitely the most insightful group of Brewer fans I can find on the internet to discuss the team. Very interested to see where the rest of the offseason goes and ready to just get this season here. As much as it will suck to see him go I think the worries are warranted on Domingo that once the BABIP comes back to normal he's really going to have to hit for power to carry positive value and I don't know if that's a risk I'm willing to take..... so I'm ready to "sell highish" on him to get us a piece in the rotation. I also wouldn't mind selling him off for prospects, though I'm not as well versed in them so I don't know what a decent target(s) would be other than the catcher from Cleveland that has been discussed.

Cobb stopping throwing his best pitch in the split/change really worries me but he's the FA target I'd go get right now. I don't trust Arrieta to be all that great for what he wants and I'd rather take Cobb for maybe 1 less year and certainly less money and hope he can rediscover his best pitch another year removed from TJ.

Hello all! First time poster, long time reader. Figured this is a good spot for the first post. First off my ideal offseason wouldn't have included the Cain signing and I would've used the 5/80 "savings" on upping the offer to Darvish to whatever it took to get him (5/150 guaranteed range or going to the 6 year if that's what it took). Using spending resources on Darvish > using them on Cain given the rotation lack of talent and OF strength. An OF of Bruan/Yelich/Santana left to right as the regular lineup with Broxton and Phillips (or even a cheap signing like Dyson) as the 4/5 is plenty good, imo. But the past is the past and here we are. The best route now is to likely trade Domingo as part of a package for a pitcher since I don't love the idea of giving up picks/IFA money and giving 4+ years to Arrieta or Cobb at the AAV they are looking at and just a big NO on even touching Lynn for me. Even though I'm a fan of Domingo and think there's a potential perennial 3+ WAR player in there you don't need to look to hard to see some red flags that 2017 might have been his best year ever and maybe he's not going to be valued all that highly by some teams as a stand alone guy going out by us for a meaningful pitcher. I definitely think you need to add a prospect(s) for a quality SP with him (Archer as an example, whom I have concerns about as a 2-pitch pitcher and hard contact results) and think his value is likely closer to taking on a riskier guy like Carrasco or expensive, 1 year option like Corbin as a stand alone trade than him being the only player of significance going out for a better/less risky pitcher. Getting back to those concerns in Domingo's numbers for me and why he might not be all that valuable (stealing some of this from another board I read earlier in the offseason).... he's carried an abnormally high BABIP and it's hard and rare to carry such a high BABIP with his profile as a ~30% K rate guy. Since 2015 only 10 qualified players had a .320 or higher BABIP with a K rate of 28% or higher, it's hard to do and even harder to replicate (no player replicated it over that 3 year span, they were all unique players). Santana in 1000+ PAs is a 31.7% K rate guy with a career .354 BABIP, last year he was 29% and .363. So it's quite reasonable to project a significant BABIP drop if his profile doesn't change and he doesn't lower his K rate by a 5%+. Throw in his below average defense with some BABIP regression/normalization and we aren't looking at all that valuable of a player if there's a .040 or more BABIP drop. We could be looking at a .230/.320/.450 slash line guy. The good thing is he does walk and have power so even as a low BA guy he could still put up a decent OPS but with power at a non-premium right now and below average defense/lack of versatility I could get why a team wouldn't be crazy to trade for him. I wouldn't be wild about it but I could honestly see something like Santana and Sutter for Corbin, Smith and Varsho being in the ballpark of a trade. Or even something like Santana and Sutter/Woodruff for Carrasco + a prospect(s) and hope Carrasco stays healthy for once in his life since the stuff is there when he is healthy. It's a tough spot and I don't know the right answer but I'd lean toward moving him at this point and trying to get Corbin, he's solid and uninspiring but would lock in rotation spot and give us a lefty which would be a different look. I'd also lean towards adding Cobb after that. That's a good enough rotation to be firmly in the WC hunt and maybe challenge the Cubs if they falter. The Darvish signing really tipped that for me though, I think if they perform to reasonable projections and health it's not even going to be a race and if we got him it could've been a race. Regardless, good to be on board (no pun intended) and look forward to posting with you guys throughout the year. It's an exciting time for us as Brewer fans and we should be firmly a team in the 80+ wins range for the foreseeable future which gives us a chance and future upside with prospects if things break right. Also I like the Pat Burrell comp a few posts above for Domingo, he strikes out a little more and walks a little less than Burrell's peak years but I think it's a good one.