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CrewFanBrewMan69

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Everything posted by CrewFanBrewMan69

  1. CrewFanBrewMan69
    For this division, absolutely. I don’t see much difference in the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds and Cubs on paper to start the year. Any of those 4 can win 72 or 92 games depending on luck, health, etc. lots of variance with all those teams.
  2. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Doesn't that describe 95% of MLB? I can't believe we're even having this discussion. Yes, he's struggling right now. He also was a high draft pick, a highly ranked prospect, and demolished college and minor league pitching. Sure, he could be a total bust but he hasn't even played the equivalent of a full 162 game season in his career yet. He has 570 PAs now. Between 2019-current day of guys with at least 550 PAs he has the 4th highest K rate and 2nd lowest contact rate. That is, uh not good and troubling. Both the Ks and contact rates have only moved in the wrong direction during this year too.
  3. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Keeping the expanded playoffs once we’re back to 162 game season is so moronic. There’s no point for teams to try as hard or build as good of a roster in that case when there’s so many spots. Why build a team and spend the money required to build a 87-92 win team when a 75-80 win team has nearly as good a chance to make the playoffs and the owners can save money? Adding more mediocre and ****** teams to the playoffs isn’t a solution to anything.
  4. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Correct answer. The season is over in 2 months. How long will it take to get the daily case count down to a reasonable number? The NFL can say whatever they want but the next time there will be fans in the stands in the US will be sometime in early 2021. It will be late in 2021/early 2022 IMO. It may take that long before most folks are comfortable going to games even if we get a vaccine by January. I’d be absolutely shocked if there aren’t fans in stands come Spring Training and then opening day next year for MLB. Maybe there will be limits and only a % of capacity and distancing/mask rules still, but I see no way there aren’t fans in MLB stands for the 2021 season. The owners and league need the money first and foremost and it seems like there will be a vaccine, if not they know how to treat the virus better every day, etc. on top of learning how to run things in limited capacity here. College/nfl stands, bars/restaurants, etc. They will allow and have a plan for fans in some capacity next year.
  5. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Makes sense, they were never some juggernaut. Plus with injuries to Chatwood, Quintana and Bryant. They were always more a true win 84-88 win team over a full season anyways so that’s just natural/deserved regression. They probably are due to play a little bit better here soon. But hopefully not until after the weekend.
  6. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Feels like we have to go 2-2 at minimum this years, maybe 3-1. If we drop 3 divisions hopes are probably done. May catch a break in this one, Cubs are worse vs LHP than RHP. Bryant and Schwarber are dinged up too so may see Almora in the lineup for them and Heyward.
  7. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Arica and Gyorko I’d guess. Lester will be the Cubs OD starter.
  8. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Yeah I’m calling BS they really lost money as an operation. I can somewhat believe it with the CAPEX for renovations at Miller Park and the ST complex, but that goes towards building franchise value so it’s not like that expense/loss is for nothing. There’s also revenues that are exempt from revenue sharing/teams can hide so maybe in their books to MLB they lost money but the real books that shows all the actual revenue they made money. They also could have played accounting games to strategically operate at a loss for Mark’s personal gain with everything else he’s in. Like accelerating depreciation or doing other one time things.
  9. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Yeah I’m calling BS they really lost money as an operation. I can somewhat believe it with the CAPEX for renovations at Miller Park and the ST complex, but that goes towards building franchise value so it’s not like that expense/loss is for nothing. There’s also revenues that are exempt from revenue sharing/teams can hide so maybe in their books to MLB they lost money but the real books that shows all the actual revenue they made money. They also could have played accounting games to strategically operate at a loss for Mark’s personal gain with everything else he’s in. Like accelerating depreciation or doing other one time things.
  10. CrewFanBrewMan69
    In the 1% chance they’d trade him here we don’t have anywhere near the pieces to get him anyways.
  11. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Cubs 94 Reds 85 Brewers 80 Cardinals 78 Pirates 66 I think the top 4 teams can finish in any order and roughly that’s how the win totals get split between them. One hits 90+ two hit low-mid 80s and one sub 80 by a tick. I like the Cubs the most, they have the deepest and most talented offense, the top 4 SP are probably the most stable, we’ll see on the bullpen. I think the Cardinals significantly dropped off. The OF is bad, the rotation is older and questionable, the bullpen is also a question, the defense way outperformed last year. I think they fall hard. I really don’t know what to think of us other than we are a high variance team with significant downside. The Reds made solid moves but still don’t really have a star, lots of 1.5-3 win players on offense, if Suarez shoulder is messed up that’s a huge loss. Castellanos and Moustakas are both overrated, imo, to what they are thought of to where they end up WAR wise most years. Should be a fun year regardless.
  12. CrewFanBrewMan69
    What sense would such a trade make? The Cubs get a guy owed a huge amount of money (pushing them in lux. tax territory that they are desperately trying to avoid) who will be gone in two years. The Rockies get a little salary relief (about $8M the first year and less the second) but Bryant is also gone in two years. I’m guessing the sense would be you’re locking in a star 3B for longer when they haven’t been able to with Bryant and you’re getting him for a likely cheaper price than Bryant will cost (assuming the $6-8 million thing is true). Arenado wouldn’t opt out, apparently, if traded to Chicago. Arenado has also been more steady, healthy and valuable recently. Though if health is equal I think Bryant is a little better. Arenado seems like the safer long term bet though.
  13. CrewFanBrewMan69
    The Cubs and Rockies have discussed a Bryant-Arenado 1 for 1 swap now that Bryant’s grievance is settled with Colorado paying $6-8 million a year. And Passan says Arenado would love to be a Cub..... don’t know how I feel about that. Think it would be pretty fair and don’t know if it makes the Cubs much better. They also are stuck with a potentially much larger commitment for a guy that’s almost 30.
  14. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Would be kinda weird to see JJ, Hernan (Cubs signed him to a minor league deal/ST invite) and Scooter all wearing Cubs uniforms on opening day.
  15. CrewFanBrewMan69
    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/reds-slugger-eugenio-suarez-undergoes-shoulder-surgery-after-injury-in-swimming-pool/ If this lingers at all my guess is Moustakas has to work out at 3B in spring training when he really should be getting reps at 2B. I think Matt Duffy is still a FA. I could see them adding him for no money as 3B/2B insurance. Forsythe and Dozier make some sense too. All those guys might not even require major league deals. Holt and Scooter probably can find teams with a little more clear path to playing time I’d think.
  16. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Hopefully he sucks enough so they cut him then goes to another team and is good that doesn’t affect us. He might just be cooked though.
  17. CrewFanBrewMan69
    You’re far more certain than I would be that they’re anything but a division contender. From a WAR perspective they still have the best offense (I think they’re the only team in the division with 3 4+ win players on offense based on projections and have the most over 3). Darvish, Hendricks, Quintana, Lester and Chatwood or whoever at 5 is probably the 2nd best rotation of the 4 contending teams. The bullpen has questions marks but bullpens are so volatile year over year they’re not easy to project. I think one of the 4 contenders finishes in the 77-81 win range, two in the 84-89 range and 1 in the 90-93 win range. It likely could come down to who racks up the most wins vs the Pirates.
  18. CrewFanBrewMan69
    I think Maddon moving on is pretty severely underrated. That guy, for all his quirks, was a really good manager. Ross might be fine as well, but going from Maddon to a rookie manager could very well be a massive downgrade. I’m firmly in the camp managers really don’t matter. Especially on affecting winning, they can affect losing if they’re incompetent. The Cubs severely underperformed last year and things seemed to go sideways in the last month+ especially. They underperformed their expected win total by 7 games or so, iirc. Maybe Maddon really mattered a lot but he didn’t seem to really be making a difference for most of last year. Even though they’ve done next to nothing I think the Cubs are being undersold a bit with projecting the division next year. They have the talent to be firmly in the mix. I think all of us, them, Reds and Cardinals are right there. Any of those teams winning like 77 games or 93 games wouldn’t surprise me.
  19. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Yeah this definitely puts the Reds in the mix. Don’t see them being prohibitively favorites though. The Cardinals clearly are taking the largest step back of the top 4 teams, IMO. Us and the Cubs are right there with the Reds for the top 3. Think the Cubs are being sold short a bit. Their whole offense is still in prime years, they project to have the most offense WAR in the division. Our offense projects about the same as the Reds based on ZIPS. Even with adding Castellanos.
  20. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Best case, assuming it’s some sort of real injury, would be a hamate bone thing. I think, that usually doesn’t have a huge long term impact and the recovery time can be pretty quick.
  21. CrewFanBrewMan69
    The Cubs signed Steven Souza today (seems like a decent low risk gamble, he’s been hurt for 2 years but is allegedly healthy and his last full season was almost a 4 win player). But I’d assume that means they’re out on Castellanos. Guessing they’ll go Schwarber/Bryant/Heyward/Souza in the corners this year depending on matchups with Heyward, Happ and Almora in CF.
  22. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Yeah Strop needs that velo back to make the slider work better. He’s dealt with hamstring (and I think knee) issues in the past. Think he missed out on the 2016 teams playoff roster with a bad knee. So I wonder how much the injuries played a role with losing velo vs him just declining. He was remarkably consistent before last year for 4-5 years. It’s probably a worthwhile gamble to sign him for $2-5 million for a year. It’s allegedly down to the Marlins and Rangers for him now, though. Hard pass on Kintzler. He’s incredibly BABIP/batted ball luck dependent. With our infield defense that seems like a bad bet.
  23. CrewFanBrewMan69
    Where is this? Other than that initial rumor on the Brewers months ago that was quickly dismissed?
  24. CrewFanBrewMan69
    A 5th OF’er (O’Neil), a broken pitcher who may not be able to start again and has to stick in the bullpen (Martinez), a middle to back end SP (Hudson) and a pitcher who hasn’t gotten above A ball who one of the 3 smartest teams in baseball just gave up on (Liberatore) is a great deal for the Rockies who have to give up a top 3 3B and top 15-25 player in MLB? 324/380/995 in Colorado. That's an elite. 265/323/799 not in Colorado. That's basically Moose the last 2 years. Those are his career numbers. He costs 35 mil a year. Moose just got 16. Yes his defense is much better but 19 million dollars better? Discuss. Frankly, I'd love them to give a ton of pieces that could be value pieces for a guy who's overpaid by roughly 5-10 mil a year. If Colorado finds any taker willing to pay value like that for him that buyer is going to end up a fool. I think the home/road stuff for him and other Rockies guys can be a bit skewed at times. No doubt they can’t sustain Coors numbers but most of their road games are in SF, SD, AZ and LA. Those parks largely play tough to hit in. On a different team/division I’d guess he’s closer to his Coors numbers than road numbers for his career, the underlying skills are there.
  25. CrewFanBrewMan69
    A 5th OF’er (O’Neil), a broken pitcher who may not be able to start again and has to stick in the bullpen (Martinez), a middle to back end SP (Hudson) and a pitcher who hasn’t gotten above A ball who one of the 3 smartest teams in baseball just gave up on (Liberatore) is a great deal for the Rockies who have to give up a top 3 3B and top 15-25 player in MLB?
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