CrewFanBrewMan69

Castro isn’t dead money. He was worth over 2 wins last year, can play SS part time and is only owed $11 million this year then has a $16 mil team option/$1 mil buyout for next year. There’s plenty of value in him at that contract and he’s still under 30. He’d be a very nice target for us.

I don't want to speak for everyone else, but i think it's mostly because he doesn't strike out(like most of the current crew), and he can hit for a high average. Nevermind, he probably won't hit more than 10-15 HR's ever at the major league level. He will probably get on base a lot, which is useful for sure, but that's about all it is...useful. If he doesn't hit for much power(which is likely), or ever drive in 100+ runs(consistently), then he's a good, not great prospect...which is what I think he is. Useful, yes, above average...yes. Elite?? I seriously doubt it, but that is what most here seem to think that's what he will be. I agree with this. He’s going to hit but idk if he’ll ever be elite. Maybe left handed DJ Lemahieu without the GG defense? That has value but probably tops out in the 4 win area and settles in more in the 2-3 win annually range and not elite 6-7+ area that it seems some think.

I said this last season and got blasted but the Cubs are already on the decline. They made too many bad deals and traded away all of their minor league system. Their window is 2 or 3 years tops at this point. Their last 2 years have been a disaster, they went from a force for a long time in the NL to a really good team with a short window incredibly fast. They won a world series so it was worth it no matter what and they will be serious players for 2 or 3 more years so if they win another it just makes it even more of a win for them, but the way they built the team has seriously taken its toll on their future. Very true. The Cubs really shortened their competitive window with the trades they did the last few years. The Cubs will be a competitive team the next couple years, but they will begin to decline possibly as early as this season. Agree with these two posts. But I would say, they do have a ton of money coming off the books over the next two years. Obviously talent is lost and needs to be made up for but as of now for the 2021 season they have under $60 million committed and have over $60 million coming off the books after the 2019 season. They should be able to keep adding FA, obviously they need to hit. But they have their new tv deal coming, if they’re able to get Harper there’s ways they can stay pretty good for a while yet through FA. They also were still a 95 win team this year, a year in which a lot of stuff went wrong for them and large parts of the core are still around for 3+ more years. There’s no impact coming up in the system right now but maybe if they get lucky with some dudes popping up and hit better in FA they still have a 5+ year window. I wouldn’t bet on it but I also wouldn’t necessarily be buying in to them being bad relatively soon either.

Without Harper I think they’re still the best team in that division. They have a ton of talent still. Soto and Rendon are legit 5-7+ WAR potential players, they’re going to add a 2B, Turner, Zimmerman, Eaton, Robles, Suzuki/Gomes catching platoon are all really nice complimentary pieces. They’ve made some good bullpen moves Doolittle/Rosenthal/Barraclough is a solid core 3 of RPs. Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin/Sanchez/Ross is a well above average to potentially great rotation.

Yeah they might not be the 100+ win juggernaut some thought they could be. But they still won 95 games last year with a lot of things going wrong, the whole offense is still in prime years, the pitching is good enough and they have the ability to add still, there’s a lot of money coming off the books the next 2 years for them so they can get creative in adding stuff. They’ll probably project for the best record in the Central at start of the year.

Marlins, Giants, Padres, D’backs, Reds, Pirates and Mets if all their pitching breaks again like it has a few times the last few years are the most likely for me (not necessarily in order).

With more bad Russell news out today, I’d bet he ends up a Cub. They cut ties with Russell and can offer Tulo some pretty solid playing time at SS/2B on a contending team and big market.

Seems like a fine pick up for only $5 million. He’s better than LaStella (assuming that’s who’s role he’s taking). Though some seem to think this could lead to a sequence of moves to clear money for Harper like moving Zobrist now or attaching Happ to a bad contract. Since Descalso/Zobrist/Happ are all somewhat similar versatile players.

Yes it is. Choke up and don't your lower half in your swing. It used to be called a hit and run and every MLB regular could do it a generation ago. I just don’t buy in to this at all and think comments like this are BS in reality. It’s not as simple as “choking up and just going the other way.” That’s little league coach speak that’s nonsense. When pitchers topped out in the 80s or low 90s it maybe could’ve been done a generation ago but don’t think it was that easy then and is certainly harder now with the amount of velocity and stuff in the game.

I really hate this argument with the shifting stuff. You don’t think major league players have thought about this? It’s incredibly difficult to hit a baseball, especially in the current environment where you are facing more different pitchers through a game/pitchers with splits to neutralize you. It’s not easy to “just go the other way with it against the shift” if it was more guys would be doing it no doubt. It just isn’t that simple to do it with how ridiculous pitchers velocity and stuff is now and facing 2-4+ different pitches a game.

The Athletic article about this showed how banning shifts would lead to more hits/base runners, which leads to more offense, which is what puts more people in the seats and gets more people watching since there’s more action and scoring. I really think that’s what’s behind this. Not some way to harm us.

Yeah as a September call up or guy with minor league options he has some value to move up and down over the year and call up in September but once he starts costing some decent money and runs out of options he’s hard to justify keeping on the 25 man all year for a team trying to win. I also think Russell is getting tendered but I think he ultimately isn’t on the team come opening day and is somewhere else or cut. They’re allegedly “working with him to make sure he’s in and overseeing his counseling” so maybe they use that to justify bringing him back as teams in all sports over look this stuff all the time and excuse it but I’d bet he’s gone in the end. I wonder if they’re a team in on Segura with all his rumors and Russell’s uncertainty.

LaStella sucks, was out of options and was going to cost $2.5 million. Probably not worth keeping him around to guarantee a 25 man spot. He can’t play defense anywhere either. They traded for Ronald Torreyes yesterday who is cheaper and he has minor league options left. I think that’s more the swap here than LaStella for Russell. I think Russel is going to be gone even if they tender him. Torreyes can play SS and other positions adequately and his bat is about the same as Lastella’s plus the minor league options make him a better fit and gives them more versatility on the roster construction from what I read.

Bauer might take him and possibly the other two. Imo. As for Syndergaard look at what Sale and Quintana cost. He’s absolutely going to take Hiure, at least 1 of Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff and one other good prospect like Ray, Turang or Brown, etc.

Ya. Guy's who have been bad pretty much their whole career and then have a career year at 34 generally don't repeat the good year again. Yeah, he literally pitched like one of the best relief pitchers in MLB once he got there last year. I think getting out of Texas helped and he doesn't walk guys and has a few decent pitches and I think he can be an okay relief pitching option but he's 35 and this relief pitching class is deep, it's probably a good move by the Cubs to avoid doing this at this point of the offseason at that cost and add a different relief pitcher or two. They're stuck with Kintzler at least in the pen.

We probably should’ve wanted the Cubs to give him 2 years and $8 million

Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout. He absolutely could improve his control. But it’s usually one of those things you either have or don’t and we have a pretty good track record of him never really having it when he’s logged significant innings anywhere.

Peralta is an undersized RH with fringe velocity who has never walked less than 10% in any meaningful sample size. After July his ERA was over 5 and his walk rate was 13%. No one knows how his deceptive delivery will play once MLB adjustment period is over. There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age. Woodruff may not be a prospect but his future performance is volatile with to me a greater probability of becoming a productive big leaguer. He has no significant warts in his arsenal or build. Woodruff’s 2018 including postseason is 11.0 K/9 2.8 BB/9 .68 HR/9 in 54.2 innings. Woodruff needs to show he can get MLB hitters out at cruising speed, but nothing in his MiLB track record says he cannot. I think the new found confidence that he can get the best MLB lineups out in short stints will translate over. To answer the original question, Id put his value at somewhere around $45 million, but that is probably higher than most would go. This is how I look at it pretty much between Woodruff and Peralta. Woodruff has the safer floor since at the least he can be a productive bullpen arm but might lack ceiling as a SP since he’s struggled there. Peralta has a higher bust chance (personally I don’t like him a ton long term for a lot of the reasons you outlined, fringe velo, walk rates, etc) but he might have a little higher ceiling if he can stick as a SP that can go 170-200 innings at 3.5-3.75 era for a few years in his prime. It’s why I’d lean trading Peralta now for a proven SP and let someone dream on his SP potential and keep Woodruff for the bullpen role since that helps us win now.

I could see Woodruff’s value being all over the board depending on team. Some teams might see a guy who’s 26 with career ERA and FIP/xFIP in the 4 range and just view him as back end roster filler/swing man role, some may think he’s a RP only that could be elite, some may think he has middle of rotation upside. I think we’d be foolish not to be gauging the market for him or Peralta and probably should cash in on one. They’re pitchers after all and both are still relatively unproven, their chance of filling our hopes of potential is less than the odds they get hurt or flame out. I’d like to flip one in to more of a know quantity and proven starter.

Woodruff or Peralta and 1 of Broxton or Santana (they can get a guy to patrol CF for them or a bat that could hit in the middle of the lineup) and low level lottery ticket arm seems to be about right.

Actually, I think the Yankees giving up their top prospect is a sign they are going to go all in for 2019. That will mean Corbin as well. I bet they go as high as $25M a year for him. Severino, Paxson, Corbin, Tanaka, Sabathia - that's pretty good (I'm guessing Gray is traded). There's some age and injury issues in the Yankee rotation - but Jonathan Loaisiga is a nice arm they can work in as needed. Or they can make another FA signing of a swing type guy. Now, that gives them three lefties in the rotation - but if you look at the Red Sox, they had an OPS of .817 vs right handed pitchers, and .719 vs left handed pitchers. Perhaps the Yankees are going to take specific aim at Boston (although that may be overthinking things on my part). I think the lefty thing is more for their park than the Red Sox. You want to minimize facing LHB in that stadium with the RF porch

Possibly. The Yankees need to add a lot more than just Paxton to their pitching staff to catch up with the Red Sox (in my opinion) Don't worry, they aren't done yet... Yeah they’re adding 1 more of the FA starting pitchers I’d almost guarantee (Keuhchel, Corbin, Happ) and look to get back a AAA high floor/low ceiling ready SP for Gray to add depth and could also see a Jesse Chavez type swingman FA addition. I think they’ll also add Machado and Murphy as FA for offense.

Agree. Woodruff is just better. I don’t buy Peralta being all that good once teams start getting more looks or data on him. He doesn’t have a great secondary and his FB command is pretty poor and he leaves 88-93 MPH FB in the zone way too often. I’d honestly be looking to trade Peralta this offseason to try and sell high.

Really like the idea of adding Ramos. He’s probably my number 1 realistic impact target.

Zunino paired with Pina would’ve been a nice catching duo. Neither are really full time guys but in a split role I think we would’ve gotten really good production on the whole.