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Everything posted by monty57
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3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed
monty57 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I just think the team that signs him will pay for the player he once was, and get the player who is fading into retirement. He can still hit, just not at the level he once could. He can still play 3B, he would just probably be more productive if he didn't play the field everyday. And, of course, he could hit the wall and completely fall apart at any time, as happens to everyone eventually as age catches up to them. I don't want the Brewers to be the team that overpays, especially on a multi-year deal. -
Coulter is still several years away from the big leagues, so a lot could happen in that time. I doubt the Brewers are doing this because of what their plans are with Braun, but rather doing it because they want to get his bat to the majors as soon as possible, and he's a long way away from being an MLB-caliber catcher. As far as where Braun plays next year, I think we need to at least get to the offseason first. I think there's a good chance that one of Gomez or Davis is traded, with Parra starting in their spot.
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JJ Hardy Extended by Orioles - 3 yrs $40 mil w 4th yr Option
monty57 replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
worked out for both sides The Gomez / Hardy trade was between the Brewers and Twins. The Twins gave up on Hardy, who had his resurgence once he went to Baltimore. -
Managers are almost never on one-year deals. When they get to their final year, teams either fire them or extend them so they're not "lame duck" managers in the eyes of their players. This was discussed a lot when LaRussa went against the grain every year and annually signed a one-year contract. I've always thought this was goofy, but apparently it's just the way it is. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how the Roenicke situation plays out if he is retained. History would say they either need to fire him or extend him to give him the "vote of confidence." If they do neither, then the writing is definitely on the wall that he's getting canned at some point next season unless the team makes the playoffs.
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Sorry if this is being discussed elsewhere, but this article was posted today on Brewers' site: http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/98041796/brewers-prospect-clint-coulter-working-on-transition-to-right-field-in-afl We have a lot of OF and few corner IF, so I hoped he'd be able to transition to third base, or even first, but the Brewers seem to feel he's best suited to right field. At least this should be a quicker route to get him and his bat to Milwaukee.
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If they were trading him because they don't like his attitude, I don't think their target would be Gomez, whose style of play and attitude have received their share of negative press over his career.
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3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed
monty57 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
He's a man who's made over 130mil in his career on salary alone. Who cares? Just because he's made money doesn't mean he shouldn't do what makes the most sense. Aramis has every reason to take the Brewers offer and go in to FA in 2016. I'd actually think ARam would get a 2year deal worth 30mil in a non QO FA market with say a 9-12mil 3rd year option(2-3mil buyout) You're contradicting yourself. If he can get $30MM guaranteed over two years with a third year option, then he has no reason at all to "take the Brewers offer and go into FA in 2016." That would be horrendously stupid, as he would be bearing every ounce of risk for no additional gain. if he's declining the guaranteed 14/15.3mil he must be hearing he can get a 2-3year deal worth 15mil or more per season. But that's purely speculation on the part of his agent. Teams can't talk to Ramirez or his agent until he and the Brewers have made their decisions. Bottom line is that no one knows what is going to happen, but from listening to his interviews, Ramirez knows that his career is coming to an end. He wants to play next year, and probably for 2-3 more years. If he wants to play 2-3 more years, he can guarantee himself a job with a lot of guaranteed cash if he signs a two-year deal now. Or, he can assume a lot of risk by taking a one-year deal and hoping there is a deal out there after the season. I think you are correct that right now someone will give him more than he's probably worth at this stage of his career. Therefore, unless the Brewers slap the QO on him I think his best financial option would be to test free agency and find an AL team who can offer him more years due to the DH. If the Brewers still want him, the best thing they have going for them is that three years ago he said he wanted to stay around Chicago. That may or may not still be the case, but if it is, he may value that more than a deal that may be better financially. -
From Attanasio's comments, someone is going to be a "sacrificial lamb" for the collapse this season. He has already said Melvin is safe, so if Roenicke is remaining the manager, then the blame will be placed on some players, which will lead to personnel moves. After the comments, I just don't see them saying it was someone like Weeks or Reynolds who are gone anyways, or a coach who the fans wouldn't recognize. They are going to take some action to make a point to the fans. If not Roenicke, then who? 1) Gomez seems to be the most likely candidate. They could blame his carefree attitude and lack of discipline at the plate and on the bases. 2) Segura could be blamed, but he has no trade value. The move here would be to find another SS (another hole to fill) and either demote Segura to AAA, or make him the utility guy. 3) Davis was replaced by Parra at the end of the year. Was this all injury, or do the Brewers like Parra in LF more than Davis? If so, he could go to an AL team in need of a good DH. 4) I guess it's possible they let Ramirez walk and spread the rumor that he's lazy, but that could backfire. I can't imaging a pitcher will be blamed, when the problem was mainly on offense. Braun's a Brewer no matter what, so he's safe, Lucroy's the new face of the franchise, so he's safe. Gennett's an inexpensive fan favorite so he's safe. It will be interesting to see who management blames, since the finger won't point to the top two guys in the organization.
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It's always interesting to see what teams like the Orioles do once they've "got there." It's easy to fall into the trap where you feel you have to do everything to win "today" at the expense of tomorrow. In any circumstance, it's tough to build a franchise that wins more than it loses and makes the playoffs on a semi-regular basis. Big markets can get away with more mistakes than smaller markets, and small markets have to be willing to trade away "name" players for prospects or their payroll will get too "top heavy" quick and they'll fade into mediocrity. The Orioles and Cubs (who are a few years behind the O's) aren't small market, so they could probably hold on to their stars if they decide to change strategy once they've "made it." The Pirates are small market and appear to want to emulate the Rays, so it'll be fun to see what moves they make as their stars start getting expensive.
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I think the Broxton deal was done with the thought in mind that K-Rod would be gone after this season, so I don't think there's much chance of him coming back. There are better ways to spend money than having K-Rod at whatever he would cost plus Broxton making a lot of money as a set up guy... that would probably cost us around 1/5 of our total payroll for setup/closer, and neither of them are "elite."
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3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed
monty57 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The problem to me herein lies with the 2/26mil suggest FA sign. He can get 14mil this year. The QO being 15mil and declining that? So to take a paycut to get 1 more year. Seems to me his best option is to agree to the mutual option or take the QO. I really don't see this getting to the QO declined compensation stage when signed. So this talk really is moot. That really depends on how confident he is that he will remain healthy and productive. 2/$26 is $11MM more guaranteed money than 1/$15. He could easily take the one-year deal and either get hurt or play poorly, leading to his retirement and forfeiture of the extra $11MM. If he's going to be a Brewer next year, I'd much rather have him on a 1/$14 deal than a 2/$26. I could see him declining his side of the option. However, if the Brewers offer the QO, all he has to do is look at how it has affected other players' free agent bids, and he could accept it just so he doesn't take the risk that no team will sign him due to the draft pick compensation. If the Brewers think he's worth the money, they should exercise their side of the option and offer the QO. If they don't think he's worth the money, they shouldn't risk offering the QO. -
I have to hand it to the Orioles. For many years, they thought they could win by simply going out and spending money and it never worked. They finally decided to take a different route, traded away some vets for prospects and built from within. Like most overhauls, it's taken a while, but they're now a good team with a modest payroll.
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3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed
monty57 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
In 2014, there were 5 everyday players aged 36 or over (Marlon Byrd, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, Torii Hunter, and Aramis Ramirez). Very few players make it that long. Even though he was around .100 OPS points below his career average and admitted that he got tired as the season went on, that Ramirez still did what he did this year was amazing. I do not want the Brewers to sign him to a two year deal, because it seems highly likely that he will be a shadow of his former self while taking up a large chunk of our payroll. We just can't afford to take that risk. Athletics are for young people. I'm 42 and as much as I hate to admit it, I'm not young anymore. Let a big money team make the headlines by signing him, and let their fans scream and moan for the next couple of seasons as he succumbs to age. -
Metal Detectors - Required at all games starting 2015
monty57 replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
In everyday life, I feel safer knowing there are good people with concealed carry walking around, so if "some crazy guy" tries to kill a bunch of people, there is someone there to stop him. However, MLB and the Milwaukee Brewers are private companies, so they should be able to decide who enters their property. As informed individuals, we can each determine whether or not this is going to be an issue that makes us more or less likely to go to a game. The lack of metal detectors never once made me (nor most of society) hesitant to go to a game. The presence of metal detectors will probably not deter me (nor most of society) from going to a game. -
Wisconsin definitely has avid sports fans. I'm sure the hot start lead to a lot of ticket sales for games later in the year, expecting to cheer the team on to the playoffs. Unfortunately, a lot of these fans are feeling pretty bad about the team right now, which is why I'm sure Attanasio will feel the need to "make a splash" this offseason to try to bump ticket sales. My question is whether this "splash" will be trading someone like Gomez, or whether it will simply be adding a "name" free agent. Either way, kudos to the Brewers for pulling themselves out of the morass of 10,000-15,000 fans per game to where they currently sit, and kudos to the fans for spending their money on the Brewers.
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How do we turn this sad franchise around?
monty57 replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think you're right reilly. Brewer brass will correctly realize that without Ramirez, there are way too many holes to fill. What they will fail to realize is that Ramirez is aging, so he isn't the same player he was and signing a player in the twilight of his career to a multi-year deal for 10-20% of your team's payroll will be a really bad thing. Then they'll spend a boatload of money on another guy on the wrong side of 30, which will excite the group of fans that needs an annual sign from management that they're "going for it," so ticket sales will see a bump up as soon as the free agents are announced. Next year, we will end up fighting for last place in the division, only to lose Gallardo, Lohse and Broxton for nothing to free agency, and we will once again discuss what patch is out there that will magically turn a declining franchise around. But, at least the fair weather fans will know that the Brewers have an owner who "wants to win," as if realizing that your team needs to take a step back in order to take two steps forward means you "don't want to win." -
3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed
monty57 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Unless there's a deal in place to institute the designated hitter into the National League, I sure hope the good people of MLB Trade Rumors are incorrect on this one. -
3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed
monty57 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I try not to get too hung up on small samples. The 2014 Brewers are not nearly as good as they were to start the season, and they are not as bad as they were to finish the season, but they probably ended up about where they should from a talent perspective. Going forward, every team in the division with the possible exception of the Reds project to get better over the next few years. Meanwhile, Ramirez will either be back - being a year older means probably less production for a significant portion of the team payroll - or he will be gone with no viable replacement. They have two slightly-above-average pitchers in Gallardo and Lohse who have a season left on their respective contracts. Gallardo is still relatvely young, but Lohse is at the point where age usually knocks players out of the league. If we "go for it," we are facing a big uphill battle with a lesser roster for the Brewers and better divisional opponents. Chances also aren't good that everyone else's rosters will get decimated by injuries while the Brewers remain relatively healthy. Therefore, I'd like to see at least one of Gallardo / Lohse traded for a good, young, inexpensive player with team control. I don't want to "blow things up," but if we really wanted to boost the franchise for the future, trade away Lohse and Gallardo for multiple good/high-upside minor leaguers to supplement the guys we have in the low minors. Let Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson and Thornburg/Jungmann/Smith/whoever pitch next year. If you feel the need, spend some of the free cash from the departures of Weeks, Overbay, Reynolds, Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez, Duke, Gorzy, K-Rod, etc to fill some holes with short-term free agents. By mid-season, guys like Arcia and Taylor should be ready, and we're not that far from help from guys in the low minors. Supplement that with guys from the trades of Gallardo and Lohse, and a possible trade of Gomez when Taylor is ready, and we could be a viable team again in a relatively short time frame. Personally, I'd take that over one year of long-shot odds, after which we lose Gallardo and Lohse to free agency for nothing. -
Brewers to pick up Gallardo's 2015 option
monty57 replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
32 Starts will accumulate more vs. a SP with 8-18starts. ...and will help the team more. I agree that we should look to trade Gallardo and/or Lohse, but the ability to stay healthy (which both pitchers have a history of doing) is a valuable trait. It doesn't really matter if there are 26 or 30 or however many better pitchers than Gallardo or Lohse. They are above average pitchers who should get something decent in return if we trade one or both of them. Of course, Melvin/Attanasio will see them as necessary for our "playoff run" in 2015, so they will probably keep them and stick our top prospect (Nelson) in the bullpen. I don't believe that Attanasio would agree to trade both of them, but it makes a whole lot of sense to trade one of them. -
Brewers to pick up Gallardo's 2015 option
monty57 replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Whatever number you want to associate with him, he is an above average MLB starting pitcher. The only real question is whether the franchise will be better off keeping all their starters and putting Nelson (along with potential starters Thornburg and Smith) in the bullpen, or are they better off trading either Gallardo or Lohse (both decent pitchers on the last year of their deal) and putting Nelson in the rotation. The final option would be to trade both, but I highly doubt that will happen. So, would you rather have Lohse, Gallardo, Garza, Peralta, Fiers with Nelson in the 'pen, or Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson with a decent player (maybe a 1B) back in trade? It could go even further. If Melvin could land an MLB-ready prospect or two for Gallardo, they could get a league minimum player, which would also free up a lot of money to fill other positions. Hypothetical example: Gallardo is traded for a MLB ready 1B, and then uses the freed up cash in a salary-dump trade for Rollins. We insert Nelson into rotation, have a long-term answer at 1B, Rollins at SS and Segura is utility IF/platoon partner for Gennett. -
3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed
monty57 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
it would be a miracle if davis ever sniffed .300. Only 16 players in all of baseball hit .300 or above this season, so if that's your mark of a good hitter, there aren't many good hitters in baseball. Davis probably isn't a .300 hitter, but he is an MLB-caliber hitter. If I had to guess, I'd say he'll be a high-700's-to-low-800's OPS guy, with the OPS being SLG heavy. He probably won't be a superstar, but certainly a capable hitter. My concern with him isn't at the plate, it's that his arm isn't strong enough to keep runners from taking extra bases. He may end up being best suited for an AL team as a DH. -
Rickie is an example of why I dislike waiting until the final year of "team control" before offering an extension. You end up paying market rate for a guy who, for one reason or other, you have not offered to extend when it would have been cheaper. Rickie was injury-prone and inconsistent prior to his signing, and has been injured and inconsistent since his signing, and therefore has been overpaid during his recent tenure as a Brewers. But that said, even though Gennett is the obvious choice as our 2B going forward, that is because of age, salary and team control. I doubt that Gennett will match Rickie's overall career numbers, and as I mentioned earlier, if both players have 600 PAs next year, I'd bet that Rickie will have better offensive numbers. The reason people (including myself) wanted to see Weeks traded prior to this year was to save money and free up the roster spot because no team should have two guys who only play second base. We couldn't trade him because of his bad contract, but I have little doubt someone will sign him to a more team-friendly deal.
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I actually hope Melvin is gone, he has almost reached the end of his career anyways, would rather have the new GM pick his own manager I think this was a key factor in Attanasio's decisions. Melvin was set to retire a couple of years ago, but got reinvigorated and signed a deal which I believe takes him through the 2015 season. He may choose to keep working, but there is a very good chance he will retire when this contract is up. This offseason, the GM has to pick Seid's replacement, which is a major decision, and it is possible he will have to find a new manager along with the accompanying staff. The decision is to let a new GM come in and pick his own guys for these positions, or to get these guys in place, and let the new GM come into an operation that is fully staffed. It appears Attanasio prefers the latter. This shows me that even with the talk of "two paths," Attanasio likes the path we've been on and thinks it's the right one, so he wants Melvin to put the staff in place. That leads me to believe that his successor will be someone with a similar mindset on how to run a franchise.
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Pro sports in general is pretty fickle. If an athlete doesn't perform, he's out of a job. In the big money / high exposure world of professional sports, there is always someone waiting to take your job. I feel for the players and coaches as people, but it's part of the job and it creates an opening for another individual. The crazy part is that most people in "the real world" would trade their job in a heartbeat for the opportunity to live in this world for a while, even if they knew they could be fired more quickly than they would in their "real world" job.

