monty57

Thanks for adding that up Mr. S. There would be payouts to Gallardo and Weeks as well, but a good summation. My question is whether we'd be better with Hamels and Smith/Thornburg or with Nelson and Gallardo with around $10MM to add other pieces while still keeping the other young players (Coulter, Arcia?) it would take if we had any chance of landing Hamels.

Per MLBtraderumors.com: Mariners, Rays Discussing David Price, Ben Zobrist By Jeff Todd [July 17, 2014 at 2:10pm CDT] Though no deal is imminent, the Mariners have been engaged in ongoing discussions with the Rays regarding lefty David Price and utilityman Ben Zobrist, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Meanwhile, talks have stalled with the Phillies regarding Marlon Byrd. Needless to say, Price and Zobrist both represent potential impact to contenders. Either player could presumably add value to just about every roster in baseball. That holds particularly true for Seattle, which could not only pair Price with current ace Felix Hernandez but would be able to play Zobrist at shortstop, outfield, or even first base. Of course, the return for either — and, especially, both — would figure to be substantial. (It is not clear from Morosi’s report whether the two would be joined in any potential deal, or indeed whether the sides have progressed that far.) Tampa is said to be interested in beating the return that the Cubs received for Jeff Samardzija, if it deals Price at all. Certainly, a hypothetical pairing of Price and Zobrist (both under control for next season) would require a bigger return on paper than was commanded by Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Meanwhile, the news on Byrd makes sense in light of last night’s report from ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden, which indicated that Byrd would ask the Mariners to guarantee his $8MM option for 2016 in order to waive his no-trade clause. Seattle is one of just four teams on Byrd’s no-trade list. I'd guess this is the point where Taijuan Walker becomes a Ray, as they use their down year to stock up and continue to provide a road map to show how a small-market team can continually be competitive in even the biggest-market division.

Health is the biggest issue. I don't think we win the division in any of the following scenarios: -Reynolds at 3B, Overbay at 1B every day (Ramirez injured) -Schafer/Herrera at CF or RF every day (Gomez or Braun injured) -Estrada and Fiers in the rotation (two injured starters) -Maldonado/Zarraga catching (Lucroy injured)

Coglhan's current HR/FB rate: 11.9%. For his career: 7.0%. Moving from a big ballpark to a small ballpark would account for some of that, but how much? The sad thing is that I thought OF was a position where we had some depth coming into the season. Too bad Schafer and Gindl haven't capitalized on their opportunity.

I don't think anyone is sure which is worse on the arm. However, most pitchers make this transition in the minors when they've failed at starting, or in the majors when their career at starting is over. My concern is taking someone who has always started and throwing them into the bullpen with no prep. Sort of like taking a marathon runner and telling him to run sprints, or to your weight lifting reference, taking a guy who lifts for muscle tone and putting him in a power-lifting competition without any chance to prepare. The chance for him to hear a "pop" goes up significantly when he lifts the heavy weights his body isn't used to... even though he's only lifting them once when he's used to lifting lighter weights many times. But again, I don't know... it's just a concern of mine. I have other concerns such as: will Smith/Thornburg be better prepared to be in the starting this year or in the future by spending this season in the MLB bullpen, or in the AAA rotation, and will the value of having Smith/Thornburg in this year's bullpen be of greater value than having them in the starting rotation in six years? Now, the Brewers are in first place, so the argument of "is it worth it" leans more towards "yes," but the Brewers put them in the bullpen to start the season. Therefore, they were willing to give up a year's service time of two of their most promising young starting pitchers to pitch them in the bullpen when the playoff odds were pretty slim. Really, this leads me to believe that people here have more confidence in Thornburg's/Smith's future as starters than the Brewers have. Note that they didn't put Nelson in the pen. His future is in the rotation, while I think they're grooming Thornburg to be the future closer and Smith a set-up man.

I'm as much for "maximizing your return" and "building the system" as anyone, but no. At a time when the Brewers are leading the division with no significant injuries to their team, while their main division rivals have had crippling injuries, you do not trade away your stars. Especially not with the excuse of "we don't think that we would beat the Dodgers in a playoff series so none of this is worth it." The main goal of the season is to make the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen. The best team doesn't often win the World Series, but the team that doesn't make the playoffs never wins the World Series. I'm not sold that the Brewers are going to make the playoffs, but they're much closer than I would've believed prior to the season. I said that they would need everything to go right, and so far pretty much everything has. Most of their hitters are above league average. Most of their pitchers are doing better than expected. They have played good defense for the most part. They haven't had any injuries, while their opposition has. I don't know if that will all keep up, but I wouldn't throw it all away right now.

That's what I'm saying. The Brewers decided to bring up two promising young starters (Thornburg and Smith) to throw in the bullpen rather than sitting in the AAA rotation. The reason they're called "promising" is because they are good. Most high-rated young AAA starting pitchers should pitch well in the MLB bullpen. The question is whether this is a good idea. As the best middle reliever, they are going to get called on a lot, as the manager wants to win now, and isn't thinking about future effects. These guys have always pitched on a regimented schedule. Throw every five days, with set routines on the off days. Now they're being asked to do something different that their body isn't used to. This could wear the arm more than throwing more innings on the schedule they're used to. There's also the question as to whether 80 innings of middle relief in the early 20's is worth a year's service time as a 200+ IP starter in their prime. Another issue is whether they will better develop as a future starter by pitching from the bullpen or by pitching in the AAA rotation. Finally, there's the "injury insurance" issue. Luckily, we haven't had an injury to a starter this season (other than one spot start by Nelson). If we have an injury going forward, we will probably not have anyone other than maybe Fiers "stretched out," as all our starting pitching depth will be in the MLB bullpen. These are all open for debate, and there isn't a set answer. I personally am not a big fan of putting guys who project to be in your MLB starting rotation into the MLB bullpen. That's just me, and I understand that there are valid arguments on both sides. All of this, of course is assuming that the Brewers view either or both of Thornburg and Smith as future starters. It very well could be that they see both of their futures in the bullpen.

regarding next season it looks as though we have no choice to pick up the options on Gallardo and Ramirez A lot will happen between now and then. We will first have to see the performance and health of the aforementioned players. We next have to see the performance of potential replacements, particularly at SP, as we don't appear to have any 3B on the radar in the minors. We also have to see how the Brewers do in the second half - if we make the playoffs it's more likely we re-sign players, while if we take a dive we may clean house. We finally have to see what the market looks like for potential replacements. As much as I wish we had a replacement, if Ramirez stays healthy and hits even near an .800 OPS, we may be forced to exercise the option. However, if Nelson proves himself ready, and Thornburg or Smith look good enough, we could go with a 2015 rotation of Lohse, Peralta, Garza, Nelson, Thornburg/Smith. Gallardo has a 3.68 ERA, but a 4.13 FIP, and Baseball Prospectus has him at a -2.1 VORP and -0.2 WARP. With both Gallardo and Ramirez, I think we may regret picking up their options. Gallardo seems old-beyond-his-years (he should be at the start of his prime and getting better, not declining), and Ramirez is just old. He appears at his best after a some time off (start of season, period immediately after his DL stint), and would probably be best suited to getting a day or two off every week. That probably won't get better with age. But to keep this on topic, how does this relate to Hamels? If we were to trade for Hamels, we almost certainly would be "going for it" next year, which would be hard to do without a 3B. That would mean we would exercise Ramirez's option. We also wouldn't have the nice league-minimum salary of Nelson, who would definitely be part of the trade for Hamels. Gallardo would probably be retained for that spot. Therefore, we would have an awfully expensive team next year, which I don't feel is probably doable. It would basically be this year's team record payroll without Estrada's and Weeks' contracts, but with Hamels' added on and raises to everyone else. Maybe possible, but probably not likely.

Sorry RoCo. I misread your statement and thought you were saying that we should get him because he would be an upgrade to Davis. After your last post, I see that we're on the same page on this. Let Byrd fly elsewhere.

Before today's game he was on pace to tie Ken Sanders team record for appearances with 83. He might be ahead of that pace now. This is one of my arguments against putting young players who may have a future as a starter into the bullpen. For a manager, winning today's game is more important than potentially winning a game in future years. Therefore, the long-term health of a relief pitcher is not going to be the top priority when today's game is on the line. The reason the player has a future as a starter is because he's talented. Therefore, he is the most likely guy to be overused. Before the season started, I figured it would be Thornburg who would set the record for appearances, but since his arm already fell off, Smith is next in line for that honor.

In final, if I was Segura and the Crew offered me $10 mill now for the next 4 years.... I am taking it. I think the fact that Segura, Axford, McGehee, etc did not take the offered extensions is some proof that Melvin made team-friendly offers to the players. I think he's pretty good at not going overboard with player extensions. Fans may have been saying they'd back up the truck for Segura, but obviously Melvin did not fall into that trap. He likely offered Segura something along the lines of the Lucroy deal and Segura didn't bite. I hope Melvin keeps making these offers to young guys with promise. The worst-case scenario is that the player flames out and the Brewers are out around $10MM. The best case scenario is Lucroy... a star player on a team-friendly deal. The Brewers would probably still sign Segura for something along the lines of your example (4 years/$10MM). However, he seems to want to maximize his pay, and knows that if he starts to hit he'll make a lot more than that. Whatever happens, I am glad we have a young player with some upside on the MLB roster, and more in the low minors. Segura gets a while to prove himself with the Brewers. I have no inside insight, but I don't expect him to sign an extension, so I hope he turns it around and plays well so that we get a few more good years from him and then can flip him for something of value when one of the young guys is ready to take over.

Hindsight is always 20/20. When we play a game and don't score any runs, we could say "we might as well have started Herrera and Schafer instead of Braun and Gomez... they couldn't have done worse." But, of course you don't do that. Rather, you put the team on the field that you believe will give you the best chance to win. After that, anything can happen. Going forward, it seems that having Nelson in the rotation and Estrada in the pen gives us the best chance of success, regardless of what happened in one game. So, we go into All Star break one game in the lead in the NL Central, and Nelson is now in the rotation. I hope we can find an upgrade at first base without giving up the farm, and it would be nice to make a "Hairston-type" trade to find a bench upgrade. Whether or not that happens, I look forward to the second half. Maybe they straighten things out, maybe they falter. Either way, they're in a better position at this point than I thought they'd be, so I'm not going to get too distraught over what should have been an expected period of not playing all that well. It doesn't mean the sky has fallen, just that the season is long and there are going to be highs and lows. Even though it ended with a couple weeks of "low," most of the first half was a "high," so there is plenty of reason to be happy with this team going into All Star break. Go National League!!

Even so, if anything, he's an upgrade (this year) from K. Davis This season, there are 24 players in the National League hitting for an OPS of .800 or more. Four of them are Brewers, so the other 14 teams have a combined 20 players with an OPS of .800 or more (1.43 per team). Khris Davis, along with most of the Brewers, has fallen off a bit recently, lowering his OPS to .776, ranking him 31st amongst all qualifying NL batters. Marlon Byrd is in 27th place with a .794 OPS. Davis is in his first full season, and is doing pretty well. I'd be upset if they traded someone of value to knock Davis out of the lineup for Marlon Byrd. To the larger point, everyone please note that we have six positions manned by players hitting well above average. Segura isn't going to be replaced, so rather than trying to find an upgrade at a position where we already have a good player, we need to focus on upgrading first base and the bench. Corner OF isn't a problem and Byrd isn't a bench player, so he isn't someone we should target unless someone gets seriously hurt in the next few weeks.

Fans of the player's team will generally see their player differently than fans of opposing teams. If Molina played for the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Cubs or anyone else, the St Louis fans would be screaming the loudest about what a {enter derogatory name here} he is. But I guess in the grand scheme of things, players like him help the game, because he makes it so much easier to cheer against the Cardinals, which builds rivalries, which sells tickets.

If Byrd is traded, some team is going to give up something valuable for him to be their starter for the stretch run. I'd rather the Brewers not match that offer for him to sit on the bench.

Heck, we could throw Gomez or Lucroy in to sweeten the deal :-) No, Melvin will not trade his starting left fielder to get a former mid-tier prospect who's "lost it" and whose greatest contribution would be either as a middle reliever/long man, or as AAA insurance depth. But that's part of what makes fan sites fun... almost everyone overvalues their own guys and undervalues the other team's guys.

With Ramirez it sounds like you'd be hoping he can be a good reliever/back of the rotation type starter. That's why I thought someone like Gindl might be the price tag. Both have the talent to be MLB players, but both are stuck in AAA. The Mariners seem to have given up on Ramirez and need OF, the Brewers have a roster that doesn't allow for five OF on the MLB team. I wouldn't want to give up Taylor or Haniger for a guy who throws in the low 90's with no control, but Gindl seems to be in limbo and may never get a shot at the MLB level in Milwaukee. Just my two cents. I've never been good at determining the "price tag" of players in trade.

Phillips probably gone for season with thumb surgery, and Bailey left the game with a knee issue although he's expected to make his next start.

From the fan comments, it sounds like they're hoping for a LF. Obviously Davis, Braun and Gomez are safe, but how would everyone feel about trading Gindl for Ramirez? I've always liked Gindl, but with our current OF locked up for years and Haniger and Taylor on the rise, I don't think he has much of a future with the Brewers.

My bad. I just read the "but he's just 24 and sports a 3.24 mark during his minor league career" part of the article and assumed he didn't have much MLB experience. You know what they say about assuming :-) Getting him for Estrada makes sense since they could stick him in the minors or the bullpen this year. When they replace Estrada, they'll probably just want him gone, and if someone else will pay him and give us a player that could have some value, that's probably a good move for the Brewers. The Mariners at 49-41 probably still see themselves as "in it," so our trash could become their treasure. Estrada's still a MLB pitcher, we just have someone much better pounding on the door in AAA.

There is a $5.25MM club option for 2017 in Lucroy's contract, and you have to believe that barring injury they will pick that option up. Cots has Maldonado getting four arby years starting next year, with the fourth being in 2018, so (again barring injury) if the Brewers held both catchers to free agency, Maldonado would be here one year beyond Lucroy. You do have a valid point though. Lucroy just turned 28, so he'll be 31 when he is eligible to file for free agency. If the Brewers plan on keeping him forever, than H&T's suggestion of moving him from catcher makes sense. If they don't plan on signing him beyond his current contract, then they should just leave him at catcher and let the next guys worry about the physical abuse his body has endured. To topic, since Maldonado is starting arby next year, and Zarraga is showing himself worthy of a backup job, I think the Brewers should test the market to see what they could get for Maldonado. Four years of a good defensive catcher who has been able to hit at the MLB level should bring something back, allowing Zarraga to step in at league-minimum as the backup. Makes sense this offseason, but again I wouldn't do it right now.

I still don't agree with the philosophy of rule 5 draft and stash and until it actually works and somebody taken in that situation goes on to have a decent major league career... http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/how-to-make-the-rule-5-draft-matter-again/ Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria, and Everth Cabrera were all Rule 5 "success stories." Most teams don't want to "waste" a roster spot on a guy who probably isn't MLB ready, so few players make it through a full season after being selected. I don't really like the rule, as I don't think it helps the player from a development standpoint, but it can be successful. I don't put much into how Wang does this year, as he's not pitching much, and he has to feel overwhelmed in his current situation. Not only is he thrown into the majors too soon, but he's not even playing in his home country, or even a country in which most people speak his language. If the Brewers see enough in him to keep him on the roster, then he has to have something going for him.

Interesting rumor. Nelson seems like a better option to replace Estrada, and I don't like putting a promising young arm at "long man," as that position can go a long time without pitching and then throw multiple innings several times in a week. That can destroy an arm, so it's best suited for a "has been," or a "never will be." I guess the best scenario would be for Ramirez to take Nelson's spot in AAA while Nelson takes Estrada's spot in Milwaukee with Estrada becoming the long man. That'd be nice depth, but I don't see Melvin making a move for a guy who will go to AAA. More likely if a trade happens is that either (A) Ramirez will get the rotation spot and Nelson will stay in AAA, or (B) Melvin sees him as a RH Will Smith This move would make for an interesting offseason, as Thornburg, Smith, Nelson and Ramirez are all guys who are good enough to be in a MLB rotation, while all five of our current guys are still under team control. Finally, the most important question is: "What would it take to get a 24-year-old rookie with a career minor league ERA in the low 3's?" That would have to take more than Jungmann, so are we looking at giving up one of our best prospects here?

Lucroy's OPS for the last three seasons: .881, .795, .908 I think that bat would play anywhere.

Well, they've made it this far with Estrada in the rotation pitching about as poorly as he is apt to pitch, so I wouldn't say that we're in trouble if we'd need to go back to him. Going "that deep" only means one of our starters gets some kind of injury, which is likely to happen. When Nelson is called up, I would leave Estrada on the roster as the "long man/spot starter" in the bullpen. At least we know what we have in him. Meanwhile, keep Fiers stretched out in AAA, and the Brewers can make a determination on who would be the better SP candidate when/if one is needed. That seems more prudent than simply dumping Estrada and pinning all our hopes on Fiers in the likely event that someone gets hurt.