monty57

The "new" Dodger ownership does not look for a prospect to throw into their rotation. If we were to trade with them, they would want one of our MLB starting pitchers, and we would be the ones putting Nelson into the MLB rotation. That's better for us as well, because I don't want to lose 3/5 of our rotation after next year with Nelson in someone else's MLB rotation and Thornburg cemented in as closer. If the right deal were out there, trading one of Gallardo, Estrada or Lohse for a young position player who could help the team now and for years into the future might be a good move. I think this is much more likely this offseason, but if the right deal arose mid-season it could help now and later. As to Davis, how much trade value does he have? He was never heralded as a prospect, hit better than anyone would have guessed last year, and is now struggling. I think he has a future as a MLB player (he's better than he's playing now), but I don't think other teams are going to give up a lot to find out. If the Rays wanted to trade Zobrist in your scenario, they'd be better off just sending him to the Dodgers for Pederson and skipping the middle man (Milwaukee).

I agree with we have no depth. However, should we be mad that the backup isn't producing, or should we be mad that we're paying a boatload of money to an old 3B who can't stay on the field, something many had questions about when the contract was signed? We have a record payroll this year, so the money spent on Ramirez (and others) is a big part of the reason we can't afford to get better backup options. It was pretty obvious prior to the season that this team was very subject to injuries which could really hurt them. It wasn't necessarily lack of top-line talent, but lack of depth and over-reliance on so-so prospects that had people believing this was a .500 team. But what is the team to do? They're already stretching the budget and they have a weak farm system. Almost anyone would be a better option than Overbay and Herrera, but whoever replaces them won't be good, and people will be calling for their heads if they're thrown into the spotlight because one of our high-priced starters is injured, underperforming or won't play where the coach tells him to. Personally, I'd dump Overbay for Green, who hits LH, plays 1B, 2B and 3B and (I believe) will be able to opt for free agency if he isn't brought up soon. With Green's ability to play all over the IF, we could replace Herrera with a fifth OF in Gindl who could be a platoon partner for Davis. Both of these are band-aids rather than solutions, but they should help. If Yo is injured, I'd be fine bringing up Nelson, but I really don't want him brought up to replace Wang as the never used long man. That would be a waste of our best prospect.

No one on the farm who could outperform a mid-.500s OPS? Morris could easily do that & be the LH-hitting half of a 1B platoon... heck, Sean Halton would most likely do better than a .600 OPS even just against RHP. Taylor Green would likely outhit Overbay, & provide another option at 3B. Sorry, I didn't mean "no one who could outproduce Overbay," I meant "no one who is good." I guess "better than terrible" is what we're shooting for right now, and we could probably shuffle guys around to find that. As I mentioned, I'd give Green a shot, as (I believe) he's going to become a free agent if he's not called up soon, he can play 1B, 2B and 3B, and he's at that point that he needs to either sink or swim at the MLB level or simply be put out to pasture. I've wanted to give him a shot for years, so hopefully he gets it and does well.

Why bother keeping him then? Good question. He looked better pitching than he's looked hitting this year. Unfortunately, we don't have much on the farm with which to replace him. Green should be called up to see if he can do anything before his deadline hits and we lose him anyway. I really wonder about Morales - doesn't seem like we're overly interested but I sure hope so. I think Morales has to be on the Brewers' radar, as they don't have any answers at either corner IF position beyond this year (it may be premature to completely count out Ramirez for next year, but he's not giving the Brewers any reason to exercise his option). Morales is looked at glowingly when we're sitting with what we've got, but he is not without his own warts. He will be 31 in a few weeks, and even including his one outlier year where he hit for a .924 OPS, his career OPS is still only .813. He hasn't hit above an .800 OPS since his freak injury in the HR celebration. Finally, he's really best suited for DH, so we'd once again get into the situation of fielding a 1B who would guarantee a lot more errors for the rest of the infield. Morales will probably demand a 3-4 year deal at eight figures per year. For this guaranteed money, we could probably expect a high-.700's to low-.800's OPS and bad defense. Almost anything is better than what we've seen this year and last, but is it worth signing that guaranteed contract through his mid-30's? Being in a playoff hunt, I'd bet that the Brewers will get into the bidding war, but I don't think he'll live up to the contract he'll sign.

Now that Schafer and Braun are back and Gomez has served his suspension, this seems less important. I would think that Schafer and/or Gindl would be a better platoon partner for Davis than Gennett. Given regular PAs, I think they're at least as good of hitters as Gennett, and they are actually outfielders. This doesn't solve the problem of having a poor farm system, nor does it solve the problem of having two guys who only play 2B on the 25-man roster, but at least it could keep the Brewers from throwing players all over the field in positions they have never played. I don't like that Weeks wouldn't do what the team asked of him, but it probably kept him and the team from looking foolish on live TV.

Now he's healthy, staying healthy That's the big issue. The fact that he hasn't pitched a full season as a starter will detract from his trade value, so if he can stay healthy and productive this season, I believe his trade value will rise. That's a pretty short list considering the dearth of 1B prospects around baseball. Yeah, I'm not sure who they'll target. I just figure that they'll look for someone who can help their team next year. The biggest position of need will be corner IF, especially if Ramirez doesn't stay healthy and play well enough for them to exercise his option, which to this point (around 1/3 of the way into the season) he has not. I'm getting a little worried that they'll extend Reynolds to be their 3B next year because they don't have any better options.

Go by what Peralta did over the second half of last year to this point. That's where you start. He's an ace. I stand by what I said. Be careful of the small sample, or of taking one small subset out of a larger sample to try to prove a point. At any point in any MLB player's career, you can take out a half season of stats where he looked really good or really bad. I like Peralta and he is the Brewers' current best hope to have an "ace of staff," but he hasn't proven he's there yet. He's certainly not at Fernandez's level, as Fernandez is in the King Felix realm. That's not a knock on Peralta, it's just that almost no one is at Fernandez's level. As far as trade value, Fernandez is probably where Ryan Braun was right after he signed the 8-year/$40MM deal. It would take an MLB player like Trout, or a team like the Astros or Cardinals emptying out their farm in order to land him. Him & Stanton together??? Not gonna happen, and certainly not by the Brewers. The Marlins m.o. is to stockpile young talent, and when it looks like the young talent is ready they sign some big names and win a World Series before they blow it up and start over. They have a lot of young talent who are starting to put it together. They could be about ready to add a few big names to make a run, but they aren't going to add the big name by trading away their top two young players. That makes no sense. If you are looking for a potential suitor for Braun, you should look at the bigger money teams with good farm systems who are looking to win now and are willing to trade a group of prospects for a veteran. That's a fairly small list. Maybe the Red Sox and Cardinals?

I think it's true that contracts can't be based upon performance. They can be based on playing time (games played, starts, at bats, etc.). And they can be based on awards (all star appearance, silver slugger, gold glove, etc.). But I don't think you can put a cash incentive on things like the number of HRs a player hits or how many wins a pitcher has. Yeah, I think I misread what he meant by "tied to," as he was implying the incentive section. When you say "I will pay you $10MM per year for four years," it is purely based on the production you assume you will receive over those four years. And the only obligation the team is tying itself to is that they will pay the $40MM over the defined time frame. They are not obliged to give the person playing time, or even to keep them on the 25 man roster.

That's really not true, because contracts in MLB are not supposed to be tied to performance whatsoever. What? I think you're trying to say incentives can't be performance based, because contracts are only based on performance. Otherwise, why do the good players get paid more than the bad ones? Also, just because you're paid more doesn't mean you are entitled to play if the alternative is better. High priced players get benched and cut. It's all (or mostly all) about production.

I don't get the connection of "we have Gomez so we should trade Braun." They play different positions, so one isn't blocking the other. As to whether we should look to trade Braun, I'm always open to trading anyone if the offer is there, and as Braun's salary goes up, his production will likely go down with age. However, right now Braun's value is lower than it should be due to the lingering concern over PED use and his nagging injuries. I think some healthy, productive play will alleviate these concerns, but that will take some time. He could get a very good return now, but will probably get more return a year or two from now. Since we're in first place, and Davis/Gindl/Schafer sure aren't outplaying Braun, there is no need to trade him. If some team called Melvin with a crazy offer, of course he should make the trade but I don't see that happening.

I'm not trying to beat you down. I'm just saying that overpaying for anything in life is generally a bad idea, because you are left with less value than you started out with. I agree with you that if the Brewers are looking for an upgrade, a good outlet would be to find a high-priced player another team is trying to save a few bucks on. We should be able to get that player for almost nothing, just saving the other team a couple of million dollars. That's a tremendous way to underpay for a player :-)

Agreed RockCo. Something really strange would have to happen for the Brewers to trade one of their starting pitchers mid-season in a pennant race. This offseason makes the most sense, and I don't care if it's Lohse, Gallardo or Estrada who is traded, but it makes a lot of sense to trade at least one of them. I just think Estrada is the most likely for the Brewer management, who will not look at who will bring back the most trade value, but rather who is the most easily replaceable. I don't expect Estrada to bring back a Top 10 prospect, but teams will certainly be willing to give up something of value for him, especially if he has a healthy, productive season this year. If I had to guess, I'd say the Brewers will trade a SP for a MLB corner IF in trade this offseason. They'll sacrifice "upside" for "proven," so they'll target a team with a decent 1B/3B with a couple years of control left who is blocking a promising prospect.

As an addendum to the previous post, assuming either of the options are viable options, I agree that if we are looking for a mid-season veteran upgrade, I would rather find a team looking to shed some payroll, and take on a little extra payroll to get a player instead of trading away promising prospects to get the player. Either way, I wouldn't give more perceived value than I was receiving.

But why overpay? If the Mariners want so badly to save money, then say "okay, we'll take him for $2MM." If the premise of this argument is correct, they're the ones who are stuck paying someone they don't want to pay. Why overpay and take all/most of a bad contract off their hands? Again, it's the terminology. Overpaying means you are giving up more value than you are receiving. To say you would "rather overpay in dollars than in talent" means you are willing to give more than someone is worth. Whether that's dollars, players, or any other means of exchange, that's a bad idea. Rather, say "I would rather make a trade where we take on some salary in a trade than give up young, talented players in trade." Either way, you are trading fair value for fair value, and usually when trading for someone else's bad contract, you are able to underpay, meaning you are able to give up less value than you are receiving simply because you are relieving a team of a guaranteed obligation they do not want to pay. Therefore, if you want Hart (or another overpaid player on a losing team), you should be able to underpay to get him. One could argue that "winning" a bidding war by nature means you are "overpaying," as you are paying more than anyone else, but I like to think that the market sets the price. That said, everything has a price and a value, and in the heat of bidding wars, teams often find that they overpaid for the value they received. This is why it was a good thing that Melvin backed out of the bidding on Hart in the first place. He understood the value, made a (presumably) fair offer for the value. Seattle overbid and therefore overpaid in the open market. Now they're stuck and people are pining for us to relieve them of a bad obligation. As much as I dislike building a small market team through free agency, because the Brewers can't afford to pay 25 players "fair value" and need star players playing for significantly under value, I will give kudos to Melvin for setting a price based on player value and not going overvalue (overpaying) to get the player. If the player doesn't take fair value (or maybe even undervalue), then he lets them walk.

Consider I have my own difinition of what prospect is You argued that everyone believed the Brewer farm system to be garbage. You were shown that not only did everyone not believe that, but actually most everyone believed they had a pretty good farm system. Your defense is what I quoted above. It's possible you are the Galileo of modern baseball, but generally speaking if your definition is different than every other person who follows baseball, then don't be surprised when people disagree with you, and eventually ignore you if factual statements are countered with "I have my own definition," and your argument shifts as mid-debate. Just a little friendly advice from someone who often finds himself debating against the crowd :-)

Agreed bcd80. Whenever someone mentions trading for good, young players, the patented response is "you can't get good, young prospects unless you are willing to trade pitching and we've never had pitching to trade." Then, when you mention trading pitching, those same people say "they won't get any return for a guy like him." Apparently, the only way you can trade for a good prospect is if you're trading away Cy Young.

Out of the "lot of players", almost all of the guys you mention are bench guys. That's why I listed the number of ABs. The "bad" section makes up around 1/2 the Brewer ABs this season. You can browse around the league. I know, that's why I said "Yes, offense is down throughout the league this season, so a relative stat will show that even though some guys are performing poorly, relative to other guys performing poorly they aren't that bad." But it doesn't mean you are somehow good if you are doing just as bad as the other guy. I guess you have to look to see if there is a reason for the league-wide lack of offense. It is possible baseball did something they didn't tell anyone about (like switching baseballs), but that seems unlikely. It is also possible but unlikely that there were a lot of hitters (but not pitchers) on PEDs that got scared off of them after the suspensions last year. If there isn't a change that is causing the drop-off in offense, then it seems that it is simply an anomaly that offense is down across the league to start this season. Since this seems the most likely scenario, I am happy for the guys on our roster that are hitting well (relative to history and not relative to a small sample anomaly) and reiterate that we have a lot of players, taking up a lot of ABs, that are not hitting well (again relative to history and not relative to a small sample anomaly). If I'm missing something, and some event has caused this to become the start of the next dead ball era, then I'll change my stance. Until then, I'm not going to celebrate the players taking up nearly half the team ABs who are sporting sub-.700 OPS. If I were a fan of Atlanta, San Fran or any of the other teams you listed, I'd feel the same.

Yes, offense is down throughout the league this season, so a relative stat will show that even though some guys are performing poorly, relative to other guys performing poorly they aren't that bad. Here's the OPS: the good (398 AB) Braun .938 - about what's expected for a star player. Unfortunately only 90 AB on the season. I don't think the HGH helped his numbers, it just helped keep him on the field. Gomez .924 - excellent all-around play Lucroy .827 - one of the best catchers in the game Maldonado 1.008 - been great in the 24 AB he's been given this season the okay (272 AB) Reynolds .782 - he's doing pretty well, and has been bouncing between the high .700 to mid-.800 OPS all season Weeks .766 - better than many would've expected in his limited role (45 AB) Gennett .730 - not good, but probably around what we should expect from him, and enough to keep him in the majors while he's inexpensive the bad (600 AB) Ramirez .699 - annual slow start, or old age catching up? Davis .646 - a trip to AAA would probably help him get things straightened out Segura .631- I really hope the start to last year wasn't a mirage Schafer .618 - only 50 AB. I've liked Schafer for a long time, but he's looking more and more like his best role will be as the 5th OF used mainly for defense Overbay .588 - why is he taking PAs away from Reynolds? Herrera .576 - I know he's a bench guy, but he's got 1/3 as many ABs as Braun so far. Gindl .462 - I wanted so badly for him to hit the ground running... he didn't Bianchi .371 - yes, that's his OPS, not his OBP So I'll stand by my statement of "putrid offense from a lot of players." Note, I didn't say everyone, as we have a few guys who have carried the load quite well. I'm not surprised Ramirez's numbers are down, but I've said for a while that an injury to him would really hurt the team, as it means Overbay will play every day. Braun missing a lot of time also isn't surprising, but disappointing nonetheless, as it means Schafer plays nearly everyday, and we were forced to watch Herrera and Reynolds in the OF. Hopefully Gomez's back doesn't become an issue, because he and Lucroy are the only healthy, reliable guys we have.

If Weeks wants to be ticked off (not saying he is, but if he is), he should be ticked off at himself for not performing at a high enough level to keep the team from starting a so-so prospect over him, and he could be ticked off at his body for failing him so often during his career. I'm sure the Brewers would love for him to have done what he's been paid to do, namely post an .800-.900 OPS the last couple of seasons. Gennett would either be traded or still in the minors had Weeks lived up to his end of the deal. Instead, he stunk and on top of that he got injured, forcing the Brewers to pay someone else while they paid him not to play (which ended up benefiting the team). Through this, the Brewers have upheld their end of the deal by paying him like a good player while getting less than "fair value" in return. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember the Brewers publicly complaining about how much they've overpaid Weeks. A deal was signed by both sides. That the team is working within that deal to make sure they don't have to overpay the underperformer for another season isn't "screwing him over" or slighting him in any way. If anyone has been slighted, it's the Brewers and their fans. The underperformance has been somewhat easier to swallow given the (possibly media influenced) belief that Weeks is a "team guy who everyone likes." Now, when given the opportunity to help the team by making a position change, he turns them down. I don't think the Brewers should care if he is somehow upset by these proceedings. The Brewers are paying him, so they should use him in whatever fashion they think will best help the team in 2014, but under no circumstance should he come anywhere near the number of plate appearances he'll need to vest his option. Then he should be unceremoniously dumped as soon as the season is over. The buyout will be "parting gift" enough.

Your scenario wont happen with the offense Well, Ramirez is on the DL and it is possible age is catching up with him. Braun just got off the DL, still has thumb issues and was removed from the game last night. Gomez was also removed last night. I don't know if there's been news on Braun and Gomez, but it is possible we start tonight's game with a lineup consisting of Lucroy, Overbay, Gennett, Segura, Reynolds, Davis, Schafer, Herrera. That's a Ned Yost "Sunday Special" offense, and we won't win if we have to put that type of offense out there too often. I honestly don't know what to expect of a lot of our players. Ramirez is a notoriously slow starter, so his lack of offense so far could be just that, or it could be that he's old and slowing down. He's also getting injuries he never had before, and that could be age catching up with him. Gennett and Davis are both young, both relatively unheralded as prospects, and both came on like lightning last year, building unreasonable expectations for them. I hope they both succeed, but have a hard time projecting either of their careers. Segura is similar to Gennett and Davis except that he was more heralded as a prospect. He played like a Hall of Famer to start last year and again was given unfair expectations. Other than that short period, he's been good defensively but not so good offensively, so he's hard to project. I probably liked the Reynolds pick up more than most, but he's "boom or bust," so nobody can project where he'll be to end the season. Meanwhile, most of our pitching staff does have a track record, and most of them are pitching better than their history would suggest is sustainable. We have not had any injuries, nor any "dry spells" from anyone on the staff, and that's not likely to continue. The opposite has been true for most of the rest of the division, which has underperformed while the Brewers have overperformed. Bottom line is that I hope the Brewers get healthy and the hot start is enough to boost them to the playoffs while they come back down to earth and the rest of the teams in the division heat up. It has been fun watching them play this season, and maybe this will in fact be one of those "miracle seasons" where everything falls in their favor and they win it all. They've been able to survive putrid offense from many of their position players, and injuries to some key guys. "Clutch" has been on their side, so it's possible that Fate has decided it's the Brewers' year.

We know what their pitching can do. ...over a short time frame when they are all pitching to their best ability. I'm with H&T on this one. I'm happy for how the pitching has performed, but just like some guys will heat up, others will cool off. We do not have the best pitching staff ever assembled... they have just pitched like that so far. They will come back to earth, and hopefully by the time they do some of the other bats will come alive.

To be fair that particular player was even worse at 3B than Weeks is at 2B. He also had the whole offseason to prepare for a position change. Also the switch from LF to RF isn't that big of a deal compared to moving from 2B to LF. Especially midseason. Oh I know, I was just saying that these moves happen fairly often, and it isn't common for players to refuse to do what the team asks. Sheffield was upset, and threw games away because of it. Soriano got upset but eventually settled in to LF. I'm sure there are others who refuse, but I doubt many who are bench players refusing to man a position that will give them more playing time. Is it possible the Weeks wants the Brewers to cut him so that he'll be free to find a full-time gig at 2B?

Gennett has had only 14 AB vs LHP, which is a very small sample size but has 103 AB (3 times as many as Weeks, fyi) vs RHP and is hitting .301 with a .339 OBP with many XBH and has 2 HR's . Weeks is hitting .217 with a .280 OBP with 0 RBI's vs LHP and is showing zero power by hitting all singles. If anybody has earned the right for a starter position it's Gennett by a mile, and there's a reason why he's getting it. To say Gennett can't hit LHP is premature, but saying Weeks has been terrible and should be off the roster isn't. Weeks' OPS is .739, Gennett's is .719. To say either is predictive is wrong, but that's where they are at this point. Also, don't look at AVG and OBP after only 128 AB's for Segura and Davis. Look at their RBI's and all of their XBH's. They have shown more production than Weeks has even though they are going through adjustment periods called slumps. The fact that they are showing gap power tells me there's still plenty to be expected out of them. To compare them all to make the point you were making by trying to beef up Weeks is ridiculous. That's what SLG is all about. Davis' SLG is .379 - not very good, and Segura's is .339 - even worse. I don't think many posters on here only look at AVG and OBP, but I can say that most don't put a lot of credence in how many RBI's a player has, as that is in large part dependent on opportunity. In other words, a bad hitter who happens to be up with a lot of runners on base is likely to have more RBI than a good hitter who happens to be up with few runners on base. Answer a question - Why did the Brewers approach Weeks about LF if the platoon was working or worth a further look at 2B? Because Braun is out, Gomez is facing a suspension and Davis, Gindl and Schafer haven't been hitting well this season. Also, I don't see a time-frame referenced. At one point, we played Herrera and Reynolds in RF because we were beset with day-to-day injuries. It is possible he was asked to play OF during this time frame, or it could have just been a "would you consider playing OF if a similar situation occurred in the future?" Whoever said they may be considering sending Davis to AAA could be on to something. He could probably use a "time out," and sending him to AAA for a bit could be all he needs to get on track. Sticking Weeks there once in a while could allow for this to happen. I don't know why Weeks would turn down the opportunity, just that he did. I'm sure he had his reasons, but whatever they were, "putting the team first" doesn't appear to be his top priority. Players are asked to do things for the team, like sending the backup catcher out to pitch an inning, switching your best player from 3B to LF to RF, or moving a starting pitcher to the bullpen. Most players say "whatever the team needs" and make the switch. Weeks didn't.

I'd guess that if we're in the position to "buy," we will do a deal or two akin to the Komatsu-for-Hairston deal. We have minor leaguers with value similar to Komatsu (Minor League Player of the Year with potential to be a MLB player) who could land us a veteran guy who can take over a struggling position. The "surpluses" we have in the minor league are outfielders and near-MLB-ready pitchers. I don't think they'll trade Nelson, Coulter or Roache, but I could see Taylor, Haniger or any pitcher in AA/AAA not named Nelson used for a Hairston-level upgrade. It's hard to tell at this early stage who might be "sellers," but Someone like Jason Kubel (LF - Minnesota) could fit the bill. Just looking at teams currently in last place (remember it's too early to know who could sell), another name is Ben Zobrist (2B Tampa). He's in the final year of his contract, but he does have a $7.5MM club option for 2015. I doubt the Rays are looking to trade him, but if we were really "all in," they may be a team that would be interested in a big package of prospects for a short-term vet. It'd probably cost us at least Gennett and Nelson, and I wouldn't do it, but it's a possible upgrade that's out there. It would fit into the window the Brewers have with Gallardo/Lohse/Estrada/Ramirez on the roster.

The way Thornburg is pitching out of the bullpen he may never start a game again. Unfortunately, I think there's a very good chance of this happening. One player (probably Estrada) will be traded next offseason. Since Thornburg has already proven he can pitch out of the pen, Nelson will step into the rotation, while Thornburg is moved to closer as K-Rod gets a monster contract elsewhere after "re-establishing" himself as a closer this season.