monty57

I'm no expert on these things, but to me the Brewer system is strong on guys who could be average/good MLB players, but lacks the stars who could be above average/great MLB players. I think the Greinke trade helped fix that, and I think a Hart trade could really make the future brighter. The good/average guys will really help fill in around the "core players." Someone like Segura can become a "core player" we will continue to build around. Keep a malleable core, so as core players age and become expensive they are replaced with younger, cheaper players. Some, like Braun, may even retire a Brewer after a long career, but at some point even he will no longer be a Brewer. Keep the cycle flowing.

He could get injured. But, by the time the latest offer was on the table, the injury risk wasn't that great relative to the potential gain. If we wanted to extend Greinke, we should've done it the day of the trade from Kansas City, as Greinke had two years of potential injury risk to worry about. I don't know if we made an offer then or not, but that would've been the logical time to do it. I prefer offering "Lucroy-type" deals to the prospects as they come up to offering extensions to guys in their final year before free agency. I hope we can turn a few Greinke starts into eight years of Segura and maybe eight years of Hellweg and Pena. Hard to predict, but it looks like Segura will be the type we'd like to make a "core player."

I jumped on the "trade Ramirez" train when the Dodgers offered Lee and Gould for Jed Lowrie and Gould for Carlos Lee. When they were rebuffed, they showed interest in Ramirez. If we could have received the "Jed Lowrie package," or even a little less, I would've jumped at it. At the same time, we had hopes of getting Olt for Greinke, and that would've been a perfect scenario. I think Hanley Ramirez wearing out his welcome in Miami probably brought down the offer for Aramis, and of course we couldn't pry Olt from Texas. I'm not for giving away Aramis purely for salary relief, but we do need to be careful with big contracts, even when the player lives up to it. All we have to do is look at Philly and the salary dumps they're doing... they gave Pence away for little return and seem to have really considered giving Cliff Lee up for nothing just to get out of the contract. This is Cliff Lee, a very good pitcher who really wants to play in Philly. I was scared at the thought of signing Greinke when we still had all the other contracts on the books. If Greinke had accepted, I think we would have had to get rid of someone's contract, or we would be quickly in Philly's shoes trying to give players away. He didn't extend, so we're not in quite as tight of a financial spot as we could've been. Since we didn't trade Ramirez when it looks like we had a shot, I don't see him being traded. It's not the worst thing in the world, as he is a talented player. I don't see him playing up to what's left of the contract, I don't see him as being tradeable in another year and his contract does limit other moves we could make over the next few seasons, but he should help the team over the next couple of years as we (hopefully) bring a group of young guys into the majors. Hart is just a different situation. With his production and contract, he should be very tradeable and we have in-house options playing for league minimum. That is exactly the scenario when you trade a player. Trading him my mean the Brewers take a small step backwards in 2013, but it should help them take big strides forward in the future as the player(s) we trade him for start to help out at the MLB level. Aoki will be fine in RF, Gamel should be fine at 1B and we'll have another talented, cost-controlled player for the future. I think that assuming Marcum is healthy, signing him to a one-year deal is a no-brainer if he is willing to sign a cheap deal to regain his value in an attempt to get a better, longer deal in 2014. Marcum would help out a young staff in 2013 and we could flip him at the deadline for some good prospects. He'd give us production, return in trade, and a chance to let someone like Thornburg get more time in AAA before getting called up. This gives three "young" guys (probably Estrada, Fiers, Peralta) a chance at the rotation from Opening Day and another a chance at half a season in the rotation while the current A and AA guys get a season closer to the big leagues. By 2014, we'll know if Fiers is for real, Peralta and Thornburg will no longer be rookies, and guys like Nelson, Jungman, Bradley, etc will be MLB-ready, potentially even allowing us to look at trading someone like Estrada. Wouldn't that be nice to be in a position of too much good, young starting pitching? If we flip Hart for a #2/3 SP, we could get there even sooner. Loe, Veras, Parra are probably giving Melvin ulcers. The Brewers should be in a situation where the bullpen is in good shape going into 2013, but instead, it will probably have to be completely rebuilt. I love the Kottaras trade, because we traded from a position of depth and added a much needed bullpen arm for the next six seasons. I just wish we would've traded Morgan before the season started, when he probably had some trade value. I'd be surprised if we don't non-tender him this offseason. I highly doubt Melvin will go into 2013 with Axford and the 2012 Nashville bullpen, so we are going to spend money on the bullpen in 2013, I just hope it's on one-year deals, as some of our current minor league starters will end up in future Brewer bullpens. Someone mentioned earlier that I was crazy or delusional or something for mentioning moving Braun to RF in the future, but here's my scenario. Play Braun, Gomez/Schafer, Aoki next year allowing guys like Khris Davis to play a full season at AAA. If Davis continues to hit (he's been pretty amazing in the minors), then we could look at moving Aoki next year. If not, I'm fine with extending Aoki if he's willing to sign a cheap deal (he's around $1MM now, so extending him at $3-4MM a season for a few years would be a steal). However, if Davis continues to rake, and the Brewers don't think he has the arm to play RF, then we could look (in 2014) at moving Braun to RF. Braun has the arm to play RF, and he would be moving up the defensive spectrum. I can't imagine that Braun would be upset at going to RF, as long as it was a permanent move, and not something where he'd be bouncing between LF and RF. He'd probably be upset if the Brewers tried moving him to 1B as some have mentioned (I don't think that's a good idea), but I would guess he'd be fine moving to RF. A future OF of Braun, Schafer, Kh Davis could put up good numbers and having two inexpensive guys during Braun's expensive years keeps the average OF salary pretty reasonable. Sorry for the long post, but that's "which direction I'd go." Not blowing things up, but changing direction somewhat from the path we've travelled recently. We should be fun to watch in 2013, as we get to see some of the young players getting their feet wet, while still having a lot of good, MLB-proven talent on the roster. If everything fell perfectly, we could compete next year, but I don't think it's overly realistic to believe that our pitching staff will be quite ready to make the playoffs. However, we can "take advantage" of our situation by getting some good players from guys like Hart now and Marcum / Aoki next year, and I think we'll have a realistic shot at being a good team again as soon as 2014.

agreed. I for one dont really mind ARam's contract, sure its backloaded a lot, but even if he "only" reproduces this years level, still okay in my eyes. gives the brewres another two seasons to groom the farms for a potential replacement, rather than scrambling, AGAIN, to fill the hot corner. If players never regressed in their mid-30s, we'd see a lot more late-30s/early 40s players in the league, and a lot less early 20s players. At the time of the Ramirez signing, everyone who was against the signing said he'd be good this year. It's the second and really the third years of the deal we were/are worried about. He will be two years older and a lot more expensive, neither of which is a good thing. He's already went from hitting a lot of HR to hitting a lot doubles. Where will he be in two years?

You're probably right. I have no idea how of the language in that contract is written, other than it is heavily back-end-loaded with some of the money deferred to years in which Ramirez will no longer be a Brewer. I do think it was a desparation-type contract, where Roenicke & Melvin convinced the owners that Ramirez was the last piece we needed for the playoffs this season, so a non-standard contract was written up so that the Brewers could afford him this year even though they were already over-budget. By signing the contract they did, it will make it more difficult to compete in the future, as a large portion of the payroll will be tied up in a few players. This is why I think getting a couple more prospects who project to be good MLB players would really help future Brewer teams. I highly doubt Ramirez will be traded, so after the Greinke trade, the only logical piece we could move which would land another Segura-level prospect would be Corey Hart. We have a lot of prospects who project to be decent/average MLB players. We just need a couple who project to be good MLB players. We got one in Segura. If we could get one for Hart, I'd be happy, and that certainly isn't "blowing up the offense," as Gamel and Aoki should be fine at 1B/RF. We'd then have multiple decent-to-good players playing for league minimum, which should allow us to field a competitive team while still paying a lot of money to Braun, Gallardo, Ramirez and Weeks.

You could also move Braun to RF, which may happen if Khris Davis continues to rake in the minors. Braun has the arm for RF, while I don't think Davis does. As to 3B, assuming the Dodgers were serious and we could've gotten a good, young pitcher, I think we should've traded him when we had the "out" this season. Since we didn't trade him then, I don't think we're going to trade Aramis this offseason, which to me means he will be a Brewer through his contract, maybe trading him mid-2014 if he's still hitting two years from now. Hart is the obvious player of value to trade, because we have in-house options and he's going to be a free agent at the end of the season. Guys like Loe, Veras, Parra and Morgan will probably just get non-tendered. They'll each get paid around $3MM next year. The bullpen guys aren't worth that, and Morgan can be replaced in-house with Schafer playing for league minimum. Decent bullpen arms aren't cheap, so I could see us paying a couple guys $4-5MM each... I just hope it's for one-year deals, as in a couple of years some of our minor league arms will end up in the MLB pen. SS is a bit of a question, as the team may want to wait until mid-season to bring Segura up for service time reasons. If they do this, then do we pay someone $5MM or so to man the position, or will we go with Ransom?

Ramirez has been amazing, it is a shame that his season is going to waste. I see this a lot. We need to remember that it was his pathetic bat sitting in the cleanup spot for the first couple months of the season which played a large part in our being in a big hole from the get-go. By the time he heated up, people were already beginning to talk about selling. It's great that he's playing well since, but I think the Brewers should think about demanding he play in a winter league or someting. Anything to get him to start his season in April instead of June. I think we should bring Nyjer Morgan back. He is as good of a 4th/5th outfielder as we will find for the price Unfortunately, his price will be around $3MM next year. We really missed the boat on this one, as we should've traded him prior to the season after we signed Aoki and Braun was exonerated. He was an obvious redundancy, but when this got brought up, it was quickly dismissed by the notion that we couldn't trust our "all in" season on some newbie from Japan. Now there's a good chance he'll be non-tendered in the offseason. I'd rather pay Schafer $450k to man CF with Gomez (who I think for better or worse will definitely be back).

This oft-repeated suggestion by many that Melvin & Co. don't have a plan is absurd. Folks may disagree with the FO's choice of approach, but that's entirely different than lacking a plan. I worry that Melvin/Attanasio may get sidetracked worrying about what "puts butts in the seats" rather than what's the best baseball move. I know there are thousands of differing opinions, and everyone is just guessing, but in my mind there is no doubt that selling was the best move this season, and I think Melvin and Attansio knew it early, but worried about how attendance would suffer if we became sellers. Thankfully, our team blew it in such grand fashion that everyone knew selling was the only option. Had we won five or six of the all important nine games after the All Star break, we may not have traded Greinke, and we'd be looking at a future without Segura, Hellweg and Pena. Of course we'd survive in that future, but we wouldn't be as good going forward. I think the same thing about Hart. From a franchise-building standpoint, it seems obvious to me that Hart should be dealt while the receiving team would still get their draft pick. That would maximize Hart's trade value. Even here, where posters follow the Brewers more than the "casual fan," that is seen by some as "blowing up the team." Melvin and Attanasio will probably keep Hart at least until next trade deadline, and will sit Gamel on the bench or trade him away for nothing (a middle reliever to help us "contend" next year) just because they think season ticket sales would fall if Hart was traded. To me, this would be making moves for attendance/to keep the fans happy, rather than making the move which makes the most long-term sense for the franchise. So, no, I don't necessarily agree with the "plan" in place. I'd rather they base all their baseball moves on baseball logic. But then again, I believe that Brewer fans will accept moves based on sound reasoning as long as they're informed what's going on and believe the ownership is being honest with us. We don't need bells & whistles... we operate better with blueprints. Heck, even the Cub fans are buying into rebuilding "the right way," and I give more credit to Brewer fans than I do Cub fans. I think the Brewer fans will stop showing up if the team starts losing and the fans think there are smoke & mirrors going on. I'm smelling some smoke coming from Miller Park.

Why is it that so many put so much faith into the minor league starting pitchers and in Segura stepping in and vaulting us to contention in 2013, but feel that the notion of Gamel and Aoki replacing Hart is a "blow up" which would destroy our roster? Unless we guarantee Hart a minimum of $13MM a year (probably more) for his mid-30's, he is gone after next year. We have replacements for Hart who will play for $450k. Hart being traded prior to next year should bring back a young player with six years of inexpensive team control. This isn't a "blow up" nor is it "trading Robin Yount," it's trading a replaceable player while he still has value. Gamel can play 1B for 5% of Hart's cost, Aoki can play RF for 10% of Hart's cost. I'd far rather work on extending Aoki for $3-4MM/year than extend Hart for $13-15MM/year. If Gamel doesn't pan out (which I think he will), then we have Morris or Kh Davis to man 1B in 2014 for league minimum. Why block all these guys with an expensive, mid-30's Corey Hart? In 2013, we are relying on three or four unproven and unheralded pitchers and maybe a one-year deal on a guy trying to regain his value and lose the "injury risk" label. I hope they all pitch well. I'd like nothing more than to see Fiers and Estrada keep up their good MLB work, and see Peralta, Rogers, Thornburg, etc all reach their potential. While I hope it, I don't expect it... at least not all at once while they're still "getting their feet wet" at the MLB level. In my opinion, risking losing out on the return from a Hart trade (in prospects and money saved) because all these rookies could push us to the playoffs in 2013 is too much risk for the Brewers to take.

Only a few games in, but Segura is off to a good start. Hellweg had a good first start and Pena had a bad first start. All three of these guys have good upside. If Segura can even be a league average SS for six years and we hit on even one of the two pitchers, this is a very good trade. I'd trade half a year of a vet for three near-MLB-ready, high-upside prospects as often as I could. We need more guys like this in the minors.

drop wolf on waivers and see if anyone bites Most everyone in baseball is put on revocable waivers every year just to see who gets through. I'm sure Wolf will be put on waivers and I doubt anyone will claim him. If they do, we just let them have him for salary relief. If not, we hope he can put together a couple of good starts, so that if a starter goes down for a contender, they may think Wolf is good enough to take his salary off our hands. Keep Rogers in rotation, bump Wolf to pen? That's probably the plan if Marcum comes back mid-to-late August. Whether it's the 'pen or an outright release, if no one has had any interest in Wolf by then, then there is no reason for us to keep giving Wolf starts. They'd be much better served giving the starts to Rogers to see if he's a viable option for the 2013 Opening Day rotation and to Marcum to see if he's healthy, as we may bring him back on a one-year deal. The September rotation should be Gallardo, Marcum (if healthy), Estrada, Fiers, Rogers. If anyone is going to bump any of the aforementioned players, it should be Peralta or Thornburg, not Wolf. Question for anyone who may know: Could Marcum, who is currently on the DL, be placed on revocable waivers so that we could trade him late August if he is able to come back and make a couple of healthy starts?

There is a vindictive side of me that hopes he plays poorly, but that's selfish and petty. Really, I hope he plays well and that helps Melvin understand that you shouldn't trade away guys who you know should be a big part of your future for short-term success in the present.

Some fault has to go to Melvin/Attanasio for not trading sooner, but far and away the most fault has to go to K-Rod for falling apart when given the opportunity to shine. Kind of ironic that performing best in high pressure situations is exactly why teams pay closers big money. Sad as a Brewer fan that one blown "spotlight" performance could be the difference in having the money to pay a decent reliever/backup SS next year or not. In other words, what we could've saved by trading K-Rod could've been enough to pay for an entire year of his replacement next year.

I think the best move is the keep Ramirez and Hart. Who plays 3B if Ramirez is moved? Cody Ransom? No thank you. Quality thirdbasemen are not easy to find and we happen to have one on the roster. RF/1B is much easier to fill but I don't think the trade return on Hart would exceed his value to the Brewers over the next two years. I think the Brewers will be competitive in 2013 (perhaps I'm delusional). An important part of the 2013 puzzle is keeping Ramirez and Hart here. Neither contract is prohibitive. As far as 2014, I don't see having Hart and Ramirez on the roster for 2012 makes 2014 a problem. It's not like they have albatross contracts like Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford. Thank you for the response. I agree that we should be better in 2013 with Hart and Ramirez on the roster. However, I don't think that we will be a playoff team with a rotation of Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Peralta, Thornburg and a completely rebuilt bullpen. There is a lot of work to do to have any chance of making 2013 a playoff team, and even then it would be pretty long odds. Meanwhile, we lose Hart to free agency after the season. Since the odds of a playoff are long and we're losing Hart to free agency, it seems to make sense to trade him this season/offseason to maximize his value to the team. As to Ramirez, the hope at the time was to get a minor league 3B in the Greinke, Hart or Ramirez trades. Green could have taken over until he was ready. Without those steps in place, we would need to decide which is better... Ramirez for 2 years / $30MM or Green for $450k plus the player(s) we got in return for Ramirez. From a production standpoint, Ramirez would be harder to replace with what we have in-house than Hart. The only reason most wanted to see Ramirez traded was the amount of money he's owed over the next two years when he is in his mid-30's and will probably put up lesser and lesser numbers. If we could've received the rumored SP back, I would've easily accepted Green at 3B. Trading him "for nothing" would be harder to stomach. It just depends on the other moving pieces in the trades. For 2014 and beyond, here's my logic for why the team will be worse. I assume we could receive good prospects for Hart and Ramirez in trade. Those players would be coming into their own in 2014 and beyond, at which point we would no longer have Hart (contract up after 2013) or Ramirez (no longer a Brewer after 2014, although we'll still pay him). Therefore, good, young players playing for league minimum vs vets who are no longer on the team with no prospects in return. If it weren't for getting something valueable in return in trade, then of course I wouldn't trade them.

If we traded Ramirez this offseason and ate $10M of his remaining contract, we would still have "profited" by paying only $16M for 5 WAR plus whatever package we'd receive in return. Let's say he puts up 3 WAR next year and we want to unload him before 2014. We could eat say $12M and have "profited" by paying $28M for 8 WAR. Ultimately, aside from the time value of money, it doesn't really matter what year a guy is scheduled to be paid. It's just about the total WAR that he produces vs. the total dollars that you pay him. Deferring payment just provides extra flexibility during the contract. After this season, we will owe Ramirez $30MM for two more years of service. After next year, we will owe him $20MM for one year of service. What we paid him in 2012 will no longer matter. It's history. I understand what you're saying, but as a business owner, I'd rather pay him now and claim a loss for the year (tax break) instead of looking at an estimated time value of money while having to claim a gain and pay taxes. As to trade value, anyone we look as a trading partner will only care about what they'd owe going forward. From a spreadsheet, it may seem reasonable to say "we profited, so let's eat half his remaining contract," but when you're dishing out the money to get out of a contract, it still sucks. For the "casual fan," who seem to be of utmost importance in our team-building strategy, how does it look to trade away Ramirez and pick up half his salary? Would they say "we actually profited because he got us some extra wins in our pathetic 2012 season?" In that light, looking at it from the spreadsheet view, do all wins weigh equally? I'd say that the "4-5 wins" he got us this year really didn't matter much at all, as we're going to end up well under .500. Therefore, since those "wins" are worth less, they should cost less. Meanwhile, paying him for a few seasons after he's gone could hamper us from adding a player who would put us over the edge and into the playoffs. Who knows, when you're talking "wins" you're talking theoretical. I'd say Braun brings more wins than Ramirez for less cost, and on a dollar-for-dollar basis, no one brings more wins than a good pre-arby guy like the ones I'd like to trade Hart and Ramirez for.

take the RF away from Hart, he's already said he is 100% fine with staying at 1B all the time. I love him at 1B, he's a beast. brewers are a couple pieces away from being a pretty good team next year, Hart at 1B is one of them ...and that is the optimism which Melvin and Attanasio hope permeates the fan base, spurring ticket sales. That is why Attanasio/Melvin will never trade anyone the fans know until there's no other option, even if it is in the long-term best interest of the team. All we need is for all the guys who played above their heads this year to keep it up, for a couple of rookies hit the ground running and for everyone who had a down year to turn things around. Oh, and we need the more talented Reds, Cardinals and Pirates to have down years. It's baseball, so we could be a playoff team next year, but looking at where we stand now, the odds are against it. We got good by going young & cheap, but now that we made it and the fans are showing up, we're being run in a way to maximize revenue/ticket sales while hoping we get lucky with performance and injuries and find ourselves in the playoffs, where anything can happen. Melvin/Attanasio are afraid that any trade of a known commodity will be seen as "stripping down the team in a Cubs-style rebuild" and will cause fans to revolt. To me, the thought that trading Hart for a good MLB-ready player in a position of need and playing Gamel at 1B for $450,000 is a "Cubs-style rebuild" doesn't show a good understanding of what causes a team to get to the point where a "Cubs-style rebuild" is necessary.

I honestly don't know if any team will "blow the top off" the Brewers' offer, regardless of what Greinke does from here through the end of the Angels' season. If the Brewers did offer a 5 year/$112MM contract, then that is one of the biggest offers ever for a RH SP. I am interested to see how this offseason goes. With all the extra money flying around from the upcoming TV deals, player contracts could soar. If Greinke is worthy of a contract that "blows the top off" the Brewers' offer, then the Brewers really need to figure out their strategy going forward, because their $30MM television deal will make them "small market" again really quickly. As to "blowing the top off" the Brewers' offer, a 5-year/$112MM offer is $22.4MM/year. According to Cot's, only 15 contracts (13 different players) have averaged $22.4MM/year or more. If someone offered a $25MM/year deal, that would match Ryan Howard as the fourth highest annual salary in league history. Salaries could get downright scary if someone like Greinke (who is not the best player in the game) starts signing contracts like that. Only Roger Clemens and Alex Rodriguez (twice) would have signed bigger AAV contracts.

I find it hard to believe that he has "a lot more value" at 1B. It's a popular theory right now but the facts suggest otherwise. I agree on actual value to the team, but his price tag won't suffer by playing first. First basemen get paid a lot of money (see recent examples of Fielder, Votto and Pujols), so there's no hope that he'll be less expensive to extend because he's playing a "lesser" defensive position.

Ramirez is on his way to another 4 WAR year so if anything he is being underpaid right now. Well yeah, he's making $6MM this year. Will he be underpaid when he's owed $20MM for his final year's service? That's why we could get something if we traded him now, but will not get anything if we just say "he's fine, lets keep him" and then try to trade him in the future. If we're not competitive in 2014, we will beg anyone and everyone to take him, and we'll even throw in a lot of money. Even better, we get to continue to pay for him for a few years after he's no longer playing for us. I'd bet a lot of people who are saying "he's worth it" now will be upset that he's eating up payroll then. If you think Melvin should be stripping the team down more power to you. But it's not going to happen. "Stripping the team down" sounds so derogatory. How about "getting younger and more talented?" "More exciting?" "Less expensive?" There are a lot of ways to build teams, and Melvin/Attanasio have decided their route would be to continually extend guys until they retire, patch holes with expensive free agents, and only play rookies when injuries demand it. I like extending pre-arby guys to extend their "team control" for a few more years while they're in their prime. I don't like guaranteeing loads of money to guys who are past their prime and regressing. People get older, it's not their fault. No one knows exactly when or how different players will regress, but it happens to everyone. Unfortunately in baseball, the contracts are guaranteed, which is why there are so many teams every year looking to dump players who a few years earlier they were elated to have signed to a "market value" deal. Rather than simply dismissing this notion, please tell me your plan. I'd like to hear it. I promise I won't call you delusional or dismiss you with "ain't gonna happen."

I've been called worse, but usually only by those who know me. I agree that we will most likely see Hart & Ramirez on the 2013 Opening Day roster. I just think it's the wrong move and have tried to illustrate why. Do you think it's the correct move to retain both of them, or do you just think that's what's going to happen? If you believe it's the correct move, then what will your 2014 roster look like? Or should we not think as far out as 2014, because of the all-too-familiar "that's a long way off and things will work themselves out?" If his season/offseason is not the correct time to trade someone like Hart and/or Ramirez, what would constitute a good time to trade someone?

Hart as a first basemen has a lot more value than Hart as a RF. I think we keep him for next season, try to work out a team friendly contract and if he doesn't want to do that then we trade him mid season and give a guy like Hunter Morris a shot. If Hart signs, then maybe we move a guy like Hunter Morris for some pitching. I dunno, I'm just spit ballin What defines "team friendly?" Gamel would play for around $450,000 next year, and will probably never get expensive in arby due to no stats to date. Morris has three $450,000 seasons in him before he even hits arby. Kh Davis is mashing and could easily man 1B if someone else doesn't pan out. We have plenty of league minimum options, while Hart's "team friendly" deal will probably cost $13-15MM/year for 4-5 years while he's pushing to/through his mid-30's. With the situation we're in, I'd gladly take a Segura-level prospect, let Gamel play 1B in 2013 and have Gamel/Morris/whoever fight it out in 2014 & beyond. Guarantee $50-70MM for Hart or pay $450k/year to 1B and another position filled in the Hart trade. Seems easy to me, and that's if Hart give a big "hometown discount" and doesn't ask for a Werth-type $100MM deal. It's the constant "extend the guys we're familiar with," "only trust veterans," "block or trade any decent prospect" strategy we've been running for several years that is getting us to the point that we'll eventually hit a cliff. We're getting less talented but more expensive. Extending Hart is warm and fuzzy but is probably the wrong route to take. He's good, but not anywhere near the Braun-categoy player you build your future around. He is exactly the type player we should try to extend for a few seasons while he's still in arby/pre-arby and then trade away while the value's still high to get more young guys who will get better while the older player's production wanes. Let the next team pay peak production price during the falling production years. Supposedly the Dodgers were interested in ARam, but they needed a shortstop as well. I would have jumped at an offer of Eovaldi for ARam, but in looking at the Hanley deal there is no way the Dodgers would have done that. Hanley can play shortstop and is younger with a much higher upside, and the Dodgers gave up basically Eovaldi straight up for him. Hanley probably had the most value of any player in baseball a few years ago. He's played poorly for two years now, and has been a clubhouse cancer, both of which obviously significantly dropped his value. The Dodgers may have gotten a steal, or they may get bit. Only time will tell. I thought he'd be worth a little more than that, but the "clubhouse cancer" label and the league-wide knowledge that he has to be traded put the selling team at a big disadvantage. Meanwhile, Aramis has consistantly put up numbers and seems to be a good clubhouse guy. Add that to the notion that the Dodgers wanted to spend money, and I wouldn't have been surprised to see the Dodgers give up another good pitching prospect even after landing Hanley. They want Dee Gordan back in the minors to get his head straightened out, and having the dueling Ramirez's on the left side of the infield would be a really good excuse. The Dodgers and maybe the Orioles were really our shot to get out of the heavily-backend-loaded contract of Ramirez. By not trading him now, Melvin may have assured he's a Brewer through the end of his contract. Much like the Cubs would do anything to get out of the Soriano deal, I could easily see us giving him away for nothing while eating a lot of his contract in 2014. The thought that we could get a Lee, Webster, Eovaldi type return had me salivating. The Marlins seem to like shooting themselves in the foot. Maybe we can work a deal with them this offseason.

Why would anyone want to trade Hart or Ramirez based on the return that teams were getting? The Phillies traded Pence before he became a rental, and he brought a fringe OF, a minor league reliever, and a low minors catcher (a longshot even with the eye popping numbers). Three teams were in full fire sale mode, and in doing so, I believe they hurt the market for other teams making deals. Hunter Pence is a decent comp to Hart, but he will probably make 30-50% more than Hart next year (4th year arby, making $10.4MM this season while Hart is signed for $10.333MM next year). By the time the Brewers decided to sell, it is possible that the offers weren't out there, and you're probably correct that teams like the Phillies becoming sellers hurt the market. When the Hart/Ramirez rumors started, the Phillies had not yet become sellers, and unfortunately neither had the Brewers, as that would've been the time to strike. If they wanted to get good value, the Brewers probably missed the opportunity when they decided to wait until the all-important nine-game stretch following the All Star break. We still have the offseason to see if I'm wrong (I hope I am). Roenicke just made a statement to the effect of "It's up to Doug, but I want Hart as my 1B next year." That sounds like there has been some discussion about trading Hart. I like Hart, but I will be really happy if he gets traded for a Segura-level prospect. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but I fully expect Hart to be our starting 1B this offseason, while Gamel is either a bench bat or traded for a middle reliever.

FVBrewerfan, I completely agree in theory. However, I think a perfect scenario is where we can pick up Marcum on a one-year / low money deal. He may sign this because he needs to re-establish his value. We could still let three young guys get MLB starts, and then we could flip Marcum at deadline if he's been good, get a good prospect back and insert one of our SP prospects into the MLB rotation. If he's once again injured, we didn't lose much, as we didn't pay much for him, and the young guys will get the starts anyway. As to the bullpen, I agree we should let the young guys play, but I don't think we have enough MLB-ready guys to fill out the 'pen. That's assuming Loe, Parra and Veras, K-Rod and Livan are all gone when the season's over. I like the Kottaras trade, and wish we'd have done the same with Morgan, but unless we trade Gamel or prospects for young bullpen arms, I don't see what we could trade to upgrade the 'pen. Unfortunately, I think we're going to have to spend some FA money on the bullpen this offseason. I just hope it's on one-year deals.

I don't think Melvin wondered why his phone didn't ring. He knows why it didn't ring--the Brewers don't have any more decent pieces to trade for this year. Do you think another manager wants KRod, Wolf, Izturis, Ransom, or anyone else who doesn't have a future with the team? Marcum, due to his injury, could not be traded. Once Melvin traded Greinke and Kottaras and didn't have anything left other teams wanted. I give Melvin's trades a 7.5 out of 10 I think a lot of teams would like Hart and Ramirez. You don't have to wair until someone's a "rental" before you trade them. In the Minor League Forum, there is a thread asking posters to list their "Brewers Top 10 prospect" lists following the recent moves. I believe that Jean Segura is either #1 or #2 on all of the lists. We have a lot of guys in the minors who could/should become MLB players, but none that project to be really good MLB players. Hart and Ramirez could both have brought back a package centered around someone with Segura's talent level. If we make those trades, all of a sudden we've got three guys who should be good MLB players, under team control for six seasons playing for peanuts. Mix that in with Braun, Gallardo, Lucroy, etc and the prospects who should be average MLB players, and you have the makings of a good team as soon as 2014. Instead, we'll probably hold onto Hart & Ramirez to keep fans in the seats in 2013, and we won't have the top prospects to make us good in 2014. By trade deadline next year, both Hart & Ramirez's values will have dropped significantly, as Hart will be a "rental," and Ramirez will be due $20MM for his final year's service. In my mind, it's a big missed opportunity... one that could have significant impact on our future. I hope I'm wrong.

From MLBtraderumors.com: Phones across the country were ringing off the hook today, but it doesn't appear that was the case in Milwaukee. Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin said, "I didn’t have any calls from a General Manager all day," according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). This is why I have a hard time giving a high rating to Melvin & the Brewers. They got a good return on the moves they were forced to make, but they seem to refuse to make moves until it is the only valid option. Instead, Melvin says "I need to be bowled over" and then stares at his phone and wonders why it won't ring. They had a good chance to take a step back in 2013 to take several steps forward in 2014 and beyond, and they refuse to go in that direction. I fear that at some point in the not-too-distant future this method of management will lead to everything crumbling down. At that point, we will look like the Astros of a few years ago and it's a long, painful process digging out of that hole. It's sad because judging by the return Melvin negotiated when a trade had to be made, I think he's pretty good at it, and he could've gotten a good return if the decision had been made to make some trades that didn't have to be made. That shows the direction of the team, which may be a Melvin decision, or may be an Attanasio decision. So, in rating the return on Greinke and Kottaras I can understand the 7 and 8 ratings. As to where we're headed, I hope we'll be a "5" in a couple years, as in I hope we can still vie for a .500 record in 2014 and beyond when we refuse to trade anyone unless they're not very good (Kottaras, Loe, Veras), they've destroyed their trade value (Hardy, Wolf, McGehee), or have refused to extend with the team in a season in which they will become free agents and we're hopelessly out of contention and falling (Lee, Greinke).