monty57

Can you tell me why Zack would be interested in playing for the Brewers vs. a contending big money team? I'd really love to hear it... Can you tell me why Braun signed basically a lifetime deal to play in Milwaukee when he probably could have played out the first deal and then signed a much bigger deal to play wherever he wanted, including at home in L.A. or Miami? Everyone has their own reasons for doing things, and apparently (even according to his friend Lucroy), Greinke likes it here. The Brewers have put an offer on the table, which doesn't sound like the standard "we know he won't sign it, but we have to show the fans we tried" offer. They made a good faith effort to get him to extend. That offer will probably still be there at the start of this offseason, and may even be upped if we can pick up some good players who will play for $450k and rid ourselves of $40MM of obligations to Hart & Ramirez. It is possible - and most likely probable - that at least one other team will beat our offer. If that happens, it is likely Greinke would not give a "hometown discount" to come back to the Brewers. But, if the Brewers' offer ends up being the best deal (let's say the Dodgers get Garza, who is signed for next season, the Yankees and Red Sox continue to try to divest payroll to avoid luxury tax, the Rangers blow their cash on Hamilton, etc). That could lead to Greinke coming back. I'd even guess that if they were within a few million of the next best offer, Attanasio would dig into his own pockets to make the deal happen. Maybe not probable, but not the craziest notion ever brought up on this board.

That's because players like $$$ Union is used as a scapegoat by fans (and players apparently). Like they are calling up the player and telling him which offer to take? I really doubt it. It's been pretty widely noted that the union puts pressure on the top free agents every year to take the biggest deal. That sets the market so all the other free agents can get more than they would have if the top free agent took a lower money deal. Seems pretty logical as many deals in baseball, whether we're talking contracts, trade value, arbitration, or whatever, are based on precedence. If Greinke signs for "X," the next best free agent will probably get less than "X." If Greinke gets "2X," the next best free agent will get more than "X." The union gets a percentage of the wages of every player, so they have a vested interest in making sure the players get every dollar possible.

I have no idea if either of these guys are avaiable, but if you could trade Greinke for either Olt or Teheran straight up, which deal would you do?

That's weird. You'd think there'd be some confidentiality issues there. But, I hope this means the Andrus rumors are just that.

Agreed Monty, but they could keep Hart next year and deal him at the trade deadline. IMHO, that's the best of both worlds. If they trade Hart prior to the beginning of next season, the receiving team would get the compensatory pick when he left at the end of the season. Therefore, the return for Hart right now (or this offseason) should be much greater than the return for Hart at this time next year. Hart is a good hitter, but they have Aoki in RF for 10% of Hart's salary and Gamel at 1B for 5% of Hart's salary. The marginal difference in performance should be alleviated by the prospect(s) we'd receive in trade. I don't see how this team can't be at least competitive next season I'm willing to be a little worse (but fun to watch) in 2013 in order to be better in 2014 and beyond. Going for it in 2013 could make us worse in 2014, as we lose Hart, Ramirez is 35 or 36 years old and we don't have the prospects we could've traded them for in 2012 who by 2014 should already have some MLB experience. Plus, not paying Greinke $20-somethingMM and saving $40MM on Hart & Ramirez, while adding multiple good players playing for league minimum give us tons of financial flexibility. Whatever your lot in life, having financial flexibility is better than not having financial flexibility. As you mentioned, we need to totally overhaul the 'pen next year. We also have to rely on Fiers, Estrada and probably Thornburg or Peralta to play significant roles in the starting rotation. I'm really happy that Fiers and Estrada have outperformed expectations, but putting 3-4 unheralded and untested SP in a starting rotation doesn't scream playoffs, especially with a likely sub-par bullpen and somewhat-better-than-average offense. I don't see us as a playoff team next year and I'm fully willing to accept that, even enjoy that, as long as we have some exciting young players we can watch develop, knowing that better days are coming soon.

From the Brewers end, I would rather see some players with more control coming back but it's hard to not like that level of talent in return. I'd also find it hard to believe if he was offered a contract similar to Reyes, right now, that he wouldn't accept. If he would immediately accept an extension, that would make the deal much better. However, he chose Boras as an agent for a reason.

I think I would take Feliz straight up for Hart or Greinke. Three years of a guy ready to go in the MLB rotation is very valuable. You would rather have Perez or Grimm? Not me. If we're looking at SP, I'd rather have Teheran for Greinke. If we're looking at Texas and guys like Hart and Axford are in the deal (and I don't see any other bullpen arm Texas would want), then I'd insist on Profar. I like Andrus, but we don't need a two-year deal... before you know it, we'll be trying to trade him away and we'll be back looking for a long-term answer at SS. In this scenario, we're trading away 3.5 years of an All Star closer (Axford), 1.5 years of an All Star RF/1B (Hart) and 0.5 years of the top starting pitcher on the market (Greinke) for 2.5 years of Andrus and 3 years of Feliz - 5.5 years of players for 5.5 years of players. No pre-arby talent coming back. This is just a rumor, but again I hope it doesn't become reality. "All in, all the time" is not a way a mid-market team like the Brewers can survive. I want someone who can be a long-term answer. This would just be more short-term patching in an attempt to fool the fans into thinking we're contenders. Houses of cards eventually collapse.

If we trade for Andrus right now, I will bet that there will be a 40-page thread next year asking what we're going to get when we trade Andrus away. If Hart isn't "the position player" mentioned, then there will be another 40-page thread asking what we'll get for him. I don't want to trade for guys we're only going to have for two or three seasons. Greinke, Hart/Ramirez, Axford for 2-years of a good SS who will not extend with us (Boras) and three arbitration years of a pitcher with seven career starts? No thanks, I'd take six years of Teheran or Olt straight up for Greinke and then trade Hart and/or Ramirez in separate deals and hold onto Axford, who is the only decent bullpen arm we have going into next season. Unless we are somehow able to immediately sign Andrus to a long-term extension, I really hope this rumor does not turn into reality. Unfortunately, as others have stated, this is exactly the type deal Melvin would do... pick up "MLB proven" players even though we'll only have them a short time.

I'm expecting "exciting and fun to watch" in 2013 and "legitimate shot at being competitive" in 2014. With that in mind, Hart (contract up after 2013) is more useful to the Brewers by being traded prior to next season than he is playing for the Brewers in 2013 and then leaving via free agency. He'll be 31 next year, so extending him for his age 32, 33, 34, etc seasons at an eight digit salary doesn't really appeal to me. Ramirez may not be able to be traded after this season. His final year is basically a one year / $20MM contract... who would want to trade for that? If we can get decent talent back for him and get out of his contract, I think we have to take it. I wouldn't give him away for nothing at this point (I would at this time next year), but right now it appears that teams are actually willing to give us some talent back for him. Our offense will suffer in 2013 without these two, but we're not competing in the year we letting our young pitchers get on-the-job-training anyway. I think it'd be more fun to watch the good, young prospects we'd get for Greinke, Hart and Ramirez, then it would be to watch the team losing, knowing we were going to lose Hart and are unable to trade Ramirez. The prospects we'd receive (filling in around Braun, Weeks, Lucroy, Yo and our current prospects) are the big reason I think we'd be able to get back to contention as early as 2014. Holding onto Hart and Ramirez may keep us a little better next year, but probably worse in 2014.

Catcher is one position where I'm not upset if we have a backup who is a good player who could start on other teams. Lucroy broke down last season when he was played 4/5 of the time, so it may not be a bad idea to give the backup a couple of starts a week. I'm more comfortable giving that to someone who plays excellent defense and can hit than someone who hits but can't play defense. Kottaras is an okay backup who will hit arbitration next year and probably make $1MM. Maldonado is a good backup who will play for league minimum for a couple more years.

Dempster has no-trade protection, and it seems he's pretty much said he's only going to pitch for the Cubs or Dodgers. Garza is probably the only real "competition" on the market unless the Marlins do decide to trade Johnson. I expect Greinke will be gone before the Marlins make that decision, and I don't know that any of the suitors want to be left empty-handed. As to Garza's value, I see it both ways. The extra year cetainly adds value, but if you want to win the World Series this year, Grienke brings more value. I'd have to say that Garza's the "consolation prize" right now for whoever isn't able to land Greinke. Plus, I could see the Dodgers getting Garza, which would mean that Dempster would remain a Cub all season, taking even more supply off the market without effecting demand, as the Dodgers aren't serious suitors for Greinke.

Look at it this way. No matter what you want to call it, they have to completely revamp the entire pitching staff for next season. That's not even a choice really. Just a function of 3 starters having their contracts up, and a bullpen that is not very....well they suck. So call it a tear-down, rebuild, whatever. Fact of the matter is they have no choice. I think that's being missed by some. Our starting rotation to begin this season was Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson. Of that, only Gallardo is signed for next season. It's great that Fiers and Estrada have pitched well, as that makes the "rebuild" easier, but we'll still need to field a five-man rotation, and a rotation of Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Peralta is not getting you to the playoffs in 2013. As to the bullpen, we could offer arby to Loe, Veras and Parra, but they're basically the reason we're selling this year, and would cost around $10MM to keep all of them, so other than Axford, we'll probably need to completely rebuild the bullpen. I'm hesitant to trade both of Hart and Ramirez, as it would hurt our offense pretty significantly next season, but if they could bring back good young talent it might be worth it. After next year, Hart will be gone, and we'll owe Ramirez basically one-year / $20MM, so if we're going to trade them, it pretty much needs to be done before next season starts.

No, you say "Just a second, Atlanta's on the other line." Then you let him hold for a couple of minutes and come back and say "I'll have to get back to you on that... are you sure Profar's off the table?" If they say yes, then you tell them you'll get back to them and hang up. You then let every other interested team know what Texas is offering and tell them they have to beat that if they want Greinke. Melvin's got the biggest fish in the pond, and a lot of people who would like to land it. That's called leverage, and in negotiations leverage is really valueable. Now, Texas' "non-Profar offer" may end up being the best offer he can find, but Melvin's still got to play the game. From the sounds of it, he is playing the game pretty well right now, so hopefully we're able to get a little more than we expected.

Since Dempster left the Braves at the alter, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Atlanta offer up Teheran for Greinke because Greinke's better than Dempster, so the return has to be better than Delgado. Apparently, Melvin fees the same way, as is sounds like he's asking Atlanta for Teheran. I know some here have already elected Profar into the Hall of Fame, but basically Teheran=Profar=Machado as far as trade value. If Atlanta antes up Teheran, it would be really hard for Texas to argue that the Brewers would be better off taking anything less than Profar. Therefore, if Texas won't part with Profar, we tell Texas "good luck in the playoffs with your current staff," and take Teheran. I just hope Melvin's able to convince the Braves to offer up Teheran.

This Blog says the Brewers would be focused more on Julio Teheran instead of Delgado, and the Brewers would want Teheran plus another prospect. Pure speculation? Teheran has really struggled in both AAA and MLB this season http://mlb.mlblogs.com/ The way I see it: Dempster = Delgado (the Braves already set that bar) Greinke > Dempster Therefore, the return on Greinke has to be greater than Delgado Melvin should have an easy sell to the Braves that a deal has to be centered on Teheran. To start the season, Baseball America's prospects list: 1) Harper, 2) Moore, 3) Trout, 4) Darvish, 5) Teheran, 6) Montero, 7) Profar, 8) Miller, 9) Bauer, 10) Bundy, 11) Machado, 12) Cole Melvin apparently has already contacted Baltimore about Machado and been turned down. I'd have to imagine that calls are being made regarding Profar (Tex), Miller (StL) and Cole/Taillon (Pitt) If Melvin can get Atlanta to ante up Teheran, that's a lot of leverage when dealing with other teams who want to add an ace. The sudden drop off in supply (Dempster only wanting to go to the Dodgers and Hamels signing) has really upped the potential return for Greinke. If he can't get Texas to give up Profar, I think Teheran is a nice "consolation prize."

At what point do they have to announce something? Given everything going on, it would make sense that a trade is in the works, but shouldn't the Brewers need to announce the move soon? A Greinke trade for prospects who would go to the minors with Thornburg shifting to the rotation and Henderson taking Thornburg's bullpen spot would seem to make sense. We'll also need to make room for Lucroy today, but that's probably for a different thread.

The Orioles have money and need a corner IF upgrade. They could be a trading partner.

Yes, the Rangers and Angels can now bid against each other to see who wants him more.

This was a "blow it up" move, i seriously doubt they would have taken Grienke, and we would have to pay all of Han Ram's salary. Unless you think a Thornburg or Fiers would have gotten the job done. Yeah, they were looking for a young SP. I don't know how our guys compare with Eovaldi, as he's already pitching effectively in the majors and has better "stuff" than most of our guys. If Peralta had made a few good starts at the MLB level, he may be comparable, but probably not as highly rated. Something like Peralta and Thornburg might have been tempting for Miami, but would we want to give up more of our farm (and two pitchers who we're counting on over the next few years) for another high-priced vet... even one as good as Hanley? We'd then have to find our pitching on the FA market, and I don't think we'd have the money to add Hanley and some FA SP. Unless the Dodgers are really going all out, and are going to dump Gordan, this effectively ends the speculation of Ramirez to the Dodgers. Of course, I'd be happy if we could trade them Ramirez for Gordan and they could have Hanley at SS and Aramis at 3B... that would give them a potent offense from the left side of the infield and solve our SS problem for a long time... probably won't happen.

If anyone would take Izturis, we could give him away for salary relief, but there's really not a reason to dump Ransom, who is pre-arby, and will probably be our backup SS next year for league minimum. He's certainly nothing special, but not a terrible option as a backup/utility guy.

IF he checks out as healthy 12.5 million is not bad at all for one year of Marcum. Agreed. The "if he checks out as healthy" is very important. No way do we make a qualifying offer if there's any sign he's not healthy. If he is healthy, Melvin should have a good read on things. Marcum is rumored to have shown some willingness to sign a one-year deal with the Brewers, so Melvin ought to know what dollar amount they're looking at. If he's thinking <$12.5MM, then obviously we wouldn't make the qualifying offer, as he'd just accept that. But like jjfanec said, I don't think a one-year, $12.5MM contract is terrible for a healthy Marcum, who has been a really good pitcher since recovering from his TJ surgery.

I'm not sure why I dislike the concept exactly considering it's good business Some players get interest on the deferred amount, which makes it more like buying the player with a credit card. Not sure if that's how Ramirez's contract is written. Just like any other line of credit (with or without interest), it can be a useful tool, but can also get you in trouble. Do too many of them, and you'll have a hard time paying for the guys who are actually still playing for you. I think Melvin uses the "team option with buyout" as deferred payment in many cases. He adds the option year to get players to sign, but it allows the Brewers to defer part of their payment out another season. Has there ever been a "team option with buyout" under Melvin in which the team actually exercised the option and kept the player?

I agree that it would be great to get more young pitching, although right now we have better pitching prospects than position prospects. I like the thought of getting Olt for Greinke and then moving Ramirez to the Dodgers for pitching. I doubt we're going to find a pitcher that's more highly touted than Olt, and he makes Ramirez expendable. Lots of money saved and two MLB roster spots filled with exciting young guys playing for league minimum. If we do not plan on trading Ramirez, then I think we might want to look for someone other than a 24-year-old 3B who will probably be MLB ready in 2013.

Isn't Dempster's a 10/5 thing, and not a no-trade clause?

I understand where Thurston is coming from. Anyone you sign on a one-year deal is going to have some warts. That's why they're willing to sign one-year deals. I hope we can get Marcum on the rumored one-year deal, as his "warts" are far more acceptable than most. I also think we will pick up at least one of our 2013 starters in a trade prior to next season. Gallardo, Marcum, {guy from trade}, Fiers, Estrada isn't bad for a "rebuild year." If we can't retain Marcum, then I would probably just give Thornburg/Peralta a shot at the #5 starter. Wolf isn't as bad as some make him out to be, but I don't think it's worth the $8.5MM for the 2013 Brewers to take the risk.