monty57

I read on MLBtraderumors that Johnson was not going anywhere. Of course, that could be GM posturing to raise his value.

Good points on both parts. 1) I think that after this disappointing season, season ticket sales will be down next year. The conventional wisdom is that we need to sign Greinke, or make another big money deal to draw fans' interest. I think that Brewer fans will see the value and excitement of bringing in a top prospect. Attendance orginally started going up in anticipation of Fielder/Weeks, etc graduating to the MLB level, and I think the best way right now to help 2013 attendance is to bring in exciting young players. 2) The question to me on Ramirez is whether any team other than the Dodgers would be willing to pay his salary and give us talent in return. They're trying to prove they're "players," so they may be a unique situation. If we wait, their top prospect (Zach Lee) and maybe others could be gone. My other hope is that there is a chance Baltimore could be another who wants to make a splash, and is in need of a corner IF.

Your logic here doesn't work, IMHO. You seem to be arguing that, because a couple of particular teams in 2012 are, or are rumored to be, trading good, young pitchers in a couple of particular deals, we should assume as fact that Doug Melvin at particular points in the past had the option to acquire comparably good, young pitchers for particular players. I've just seen thousands of posts saying that young pitching is never traded, and anytime anyone mentions that Melvin should go after young pitching the response is "I'm sure he tried, but good young pitching isn't traded, so we did the only thing we could do, which is trade the farm for former Cy Young winners." The suggestor is then told "you can't prove he didn't try" which is the presumptive close of the arguement. This season, we were told by the talking heads that no one would give up anything of value due to the new CBA, and here we are with two top pitching prospects traded (one of the trades apparently nixed by a no-trade clause). Of course I can't prove something that didn't happen, but Melvin has had talented players on the roster who could have been traded at some point, and it would seem reasonable to believe that had he chosen to go that path, he could have made trades for young pitchers. Unless, of course you believe as does Bnowell4evr, that... Sorry to interrupt your little rant with facts but pitching gets pitching in return. Which would imply that the "fact" is that there has never been a position player-for-pitcher trade made in the MLB. Interesting concept, which if true would mean that we couldn't trade Greinke for Olt, because in order to get a pitcher, you need to trade pitching and Olt is a 3B. Good thing it's not really a fact, because it would be upsetting to know that we couldn't trade Braun for a pitcher. That would really limit his value. I'd say the real "fact" is that value gets value in return. If one GM has a pitcher and needs a position player, he will work a deal with someone who has a suitable position player and is looking for a pitcher.

Mark and Doug are not the types to throw up the white flag on a season and a lot of people will see it that way if they trade Greinke and ARam. I would guess that even the most thick-headed of fans will see that our trading Greinke means our chances for the playoffs this season are pretty much gone... even if they couldn't see it by simply looking at the standings. I agree that trading Ramirez and/or Hart would need to be explained to the fans. Not because of this season, but because they're signed beyond this year. If we were to trade either/both of them for prospects, the trade would have to be spun to the fans that we just got "a group that could become the next Fielder, Weeks, etc." The Brewers would need to hype up how exciting the new, younger Brewers team will be.

If Dempster puts the kibosh on this deal, it gives the Brewers a lot of leverage in dealing with the Braves. First, they can no longer go after Dempster, so that's off the table. Second, it is pretty easy to argue that while Dempster has had a good season, Greinke is the better pitcher. Therefore, if you were willing to give up Delgado for Dempster, you'll need to give up more for Greinke. The question is "how much more?" I just wish Marcum was healthy, because Delgado for Marcum would be really nice.

If Weeks was currently playing like he was pre-injury last season, he still wouldn't get Hanley Ramirez straight up. Hanley's value is down, but in the past he has been mentioned as one of if not the best player in the game. I would guess that if the Marlins do trade him, it will be for a package of young, cost-controlled players who are really, really good. That said, if Melvin could somehow make it happen, we would certainly have our SS situation settled in a big way.

And no, Profar is not getting traded. Greinke is no schlub but there have been plenty of much better pitchers traded in recent years, e.g. Lee and Halladay, who did not get top-5 prospect type returns. Particularly since Texas is just going to be competitive against next year, and the year after, etc.) So if we went to Texas and offered them Greinke and Braun, they'd say no? I understand Profar is good, is probably not getting traded at all, and is almost certainly not getting traded straight up for Greinke, but never say never. We could always sweeten the deal up by making it a deal centered on Greinke for Profar with us giving up more additional "other pieces." That said, I'd focus on Olt and maybe some pitching, as Profar is probably not going to happen.

and Delgado is arguably a top 20 prospect, fyi. If people admit that players like Delgado and Turner are good, young pitchers, then they would have to admit that good, young pitchers are actually traded. This would then poke holes in the arguement that Melvin could not possibly have traded for good, young pitchers over the past decade because good, young pitchers are never traded. This then dominoes into "the only way we could make the playoffs was to trade our farm system for veterans," and "since you can't prove other trade possibilities existed, then they didn't exist." Melvin chose to always trade prospects for vets and not the other way around. Now we're in the situation where we are pretty much forced to trade at least one sought-after vet in Greinke and I hope Melvin is able to do a god job. I'll be upset (but not completely surprised) if he ends up with a couple of "low ceiling" guys who already have a few years of MLB experience and we hear the justification as "we think with guys like Braun, Hart and Ramirez that we can really compete for the playoffs next year, and the guys we got can step right in and help right away."

Why would any GM give up the top 1 or 2 prospect in all of baseball for a non-all-star pitcher who has been really struggling for the past 3 weeks? That's probably being a little harsh on Greinke, a guy to whom we just offered one of the biggest contracts in the history of the game. I highly doubt Profar is going to get traded for anything, much less a rental, but the Texas situation is that they have lost the last two World Series and are going to lose their best player after this season, so their chances of going back to a World Series after this one is greatly diminished. They have a great young SS at the MLB level who they could easily extend, but their starting rotation needs big help if they want to win now. Again, I doubt Profar is traded, but if there was ever a situation where an elite prospect would be traded, Texas is in that situation.

Honestly, why would the Marlins do that deal though? Yeah, if Melvin pulled that off, we should build him a shrine. Regarding the trades going through, teams are seemingly putting a rest to the "young pitching prospects are never traded" and "no one is going to give up anything for a rental" arguements.

That would be perfect for the Brewers, and it makes sense for Marcum. He's a midwesterner, so he likes it here, and he's probably got one chance left to get a big payday, so he's willing to take some risk in order to get a lot more after an injury-free season. This would make me pretty happy, because (A) I like Marcum, (B) We could really use him next year, and © I was pretty bummed when he got injured, because I figured we'd get a good return for him in trade and the injury nixed that. Now we can get him one more season and trade him next year if we're not in playoff contention.

1) I doubt Greinke is the only player traded before next season, and I'd bet we'll pick up at least one SP in trade who will be in the 2013 rotation. 2) Teams could be leery of offering Marcum a long-term deal, and assuming he's healthy I'd be happy if the Brewers were able to re-sign him to a 2-3 year deal. I'd be really happy if he accepted the one-year $12MM deal. 3) I don't know what we have in Fiers and Estrada, but if they continue pitching the way they have, they would solve a lot of our rotation problems. 4) We have a lot of SP in the minors who are getting closer and closer to MLB ready. I don't know if Thornburg, Peralta, etc will start 2013 in the MLB rotation, but they should at least get a shot. 5) If we don't re-sign Greinke, and if we were to trade away any other vets like Hart and/or Ramirez, we will have a lot of money. When you have financial flexibility, you could look at FA's, but you could also do something like taking on salary in a trade. When you do this during the offseason, you can sometimes pick up a decent vet with a year or so left on his contract without giving up much in return. If we really need a fifth starting pitcher (options 1-4 above don't fill all the spots), I could see Melvin looking at teams with extra SP who are looking to get rid of one of the veterans to save some money. I'd rather fill it other ways, but it's an option. A lot will depend on whether or not we're "going for it" next year. If so, I doubt we'd start the year with Fiers, Estrada and a rookie or two in the rotation. If we're using 2013 to break in some of our prospects (the ones we currently have and the ones we'll hopefully trade for), then we should have no problem filling the rotation.

Rickie Weeks will be fine. He's hurting the team this year, but I've heard people calling for his head on a platter before. He'll come back and be a good player again. I certainly don't want to "sell low" on him and trade him for salary relief. Barring what would likely be a bad trade for the Brewers, he will be the Brewers' opening day 2B in 2013, and I'm comfortable with him being there. However, when he's playing well again, I think the Brewers will be wise to look into shopping him. Come this time next year, he could be a big trading chip if he "rights the ship."

I think most MLB GM's understand how erratic stats can be over 30-40 IP. Very few relievers are good year-in and year-out. Those that are end up making eight figure salaries closing games. Loe, Parra and Veras have careers to go off of which would be better indicators than just looking at what they've done this year. Loe historically has been decent against righties, Veras is coming off two pretty good seasons in 2010 and 2011, and Parra has been alright since moving to the bullpen from the starting rotation. None of these guys are stars, but they have some talent. There are certainly worse options out there than these guys, and any of them could help a playoff-hopeful team that has one of these worse options in their bullpen (or has suffered some injuries). The reason I wouldn't be upset to see them go is that they will all be in their final year of arby next season, and will make a decent amount of money. I think that money could be better spent by the Brewers next year. Edit: To the "wouldn't bring us anything of value" part, you may be right, but we would get salary relief and I could see us getting a AAA middle reliever who could be useful in coming years playing for league minimum. A GM might rather put a "proven vet" into a playoff race than a rookie. Again, not a stud prospect, but someone who could come in and give us league-average stats for league-minimum salary.

do you know that for a fact? Exactly. We have NO idea what went down. We have NO idea what would have been offered for Greinke. We have NO idea if Melvin asked for Teheran. And we have NO idea if Atlanta was even interested in Greinke. Which is what I was saying when told that the Braves would not give up Teheran. I just argued that we don't know whether or not they would give him up unless you make the offer. It goes both ways. However, it was noted earlier on in the thread somewhere that the Braves weren't going to wait any longer to see what Milwaukee decided to do with Greinke. If true, that leads me to believe that they called asking and were told to hold on until the Brewers decided if they were extending or trading / buying or selling. I want to add that the argument you make "We have NO idea..." is the arguement everyone makes when defending the state of the Brewers. We know the Braves were willing to part with young pitching, we know the Dodgers are willing to part with young pitching, we know the Rangers and Angels are willing to part with good young prospects. This isn't unusual, it happens every year. However, many argue that the Brewers' inability to ever trade for any of this young talent is because it's never available. I don't buy it. Young talent is available if you're willing to go get it. I just hope we decide to go get it this season.

He likely will reject it but I don't think thats the case yet. Why doesn't Melvin put a drop-dead date on offers? Why hamstring the franchise while waiting for a player to make up his mind? With the Cub rumors flying around, I'd tell Greinke we need to know what he's going to do right now, and then I'd start making calls to other teams. If he's traded before he gives you an answer, too bad.

I do not see why the Braves would have given up Teheran for Greinke when they could just give up Delgado for Dempster. You could be absolutely correct. We'll never know because Melvin didn't force them to make that decision.

I know it's been mentioned over & over, but if the Brewers trade him, and then put this exact same offer out there this offseason, I have to think there is a very good chance that they re-sign him. Someone might blow everyone out of the water with an offer, but this is a pretty fair offer.

The Braves were not going to give up Teheran in a deal for Greinke And you know this how? Trades are not made on a spreadsheet. They are made when an offer is made and accepted. If the Braves wanted Greinke more than Dempster, they would have to decide if they wanted him enough to give up Teheran. Maybe they'd rather have Dempster for Delgado than Greinke for Teheran, but maybe not. Unfortunately, Melvin did not force them to make that decision, because he's waiting for Greinke to decide whether or not to accept a contract while the Cubs are starting to make moves. There's no reason Greinke should get several weeks to decide what he's going to do, when that time should be used by Melvin to work the best trade. Force him to either accept the deal or reject it so that the Brewers can get on with planning their future.

Also, it would probably be hard to move Marcum. He may struggle in free agency. So we may be able to retain him on a 1-2 yr deal. Maybe off-topic, but I hope we can find a way to keep Marcum on a short-term deal. I much prefer him at 2 years/$22MM or so vs Greinke at 5 year/$115MM. I like the idea of trading bullpen guys if we can get something useful back, but I have one note of caution. If you completely gut the bullpen, you still have to finish the season. You don't want to rush guys to the majors, and somebody has to pitch the innings. You just need to have a coherent plan if you're going to go that route. But I doubt we could get a worthwhile return for all four of Rodriguez, Parra, Loe, and Veras anyway. I agree, but it would probably be a good opportunity to give some of our prospects some MLB innings. Stetter, Sanchez, McClendon and Henderson have been mentioned, and I'll throw Rogers' name in there as well. Plus, as I mentioned earlier, we could probably find some teams who have young guys with good arms that would rather have someone with MLB experience for the playoff run. I'd gladly trade some of our bullpen arms for "unproven" young AAA relievers who could get some experience with the 2012 Brewers and help us out for quite a few years.

Which means that if Melvin wants to get the Dodgers' top prospect back in return for Ramirez, he had better be on the phone with the Dodgers right now. I know the Dodgers are inquiring about pitching, but they need offensive help more than they need pitching help. It would be a tough decision for them between trading Lee for Garza or Ramirez. If we can't land Lee, then we'd better get at least two of their top remaining guys - maybe Eovaldi and Allen Webster? They don't have that strong of a system, so if Lee goes to the Cubs, Melvin may have missed out on a good opportunity to get out of the $30MM owed Ramirez while picking up someone who is projected to be a really good young pitcher.

He's the main piece I'd want back if we traded Ramirez, so if we want to get out of the Ramirez contract and get a good return, Melvin had better move quickly. Conventional baseball wisdom seems to be "sit back and wait until the last minute to get the best deal." Meanwhile, the Cubs are picking off all the nice peices being dangled out there by the "buyers." Everyone knew the Braves were willing to trade one of their top pitching prospects and the Dodgers were willing to trade Lee, so it was really a race to see who got them. I just hope this is a kick in Melvin's pants to get him on the phone now. First to Greinke to tell him he has about 5 minutes to make up his mind, then to Texas about Greinke for Olt and the Dodgers about Ramirez for Lee.

Good move by the Cubs. The Braves were one team that had MLB-ready prospects to give up. Since we're looking for someone who could step in and play right away, I was hoping we could land one of their pitchers. If Dempster brought Delgado, Greinke may have brought Teheran or Delgado+a lesser prospect. Probably not going to happen now. I really hope we move Greinke before Hamels is traded to Texas for Olt. My guess is we miss some opportunity while we wait for Greinke to "make up his mind" about the offer. There aren't that many suitors out there, and many (like the Braves) may get tired of waiting for Melvin/Greinke to make up their minds.

Our team next year is going to have a lot of holes to fill. We can either use all of our free cash to sign Greinke and hope that Ransom, Bianchi, Schafer, Estrada, Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta and whatever we can find for the bullpen will play well enough to not sink the ship. Or, we can trade our "chips" for young, talented pre-arby guys to fill some of the holes and use the loads of freed up cash to fill in some of the other holes. Either way has risks. If Fiers and Estrada continue to pitch the way they have, we could be decent in either of the above scenarios. If they put up 5+ ERAs next year, we won't be good in either of the above scenarios. That being the case, I prefer to go the route that brings in young, inexpensive talent we'll hold for six seasons, and gives us a lot of financial flexibility over the path that relies on a few high-priced players and puts us in somewhat risky financial territory.

Each of them will probably earn around $3MM next year in arby, so there's a good chance that any or all of them would be non-tendered this offseason. If we can find teams looking for a veteran bullpen presence for the playoff run who would be willing to trade us a young guy in AAA who projects as a middle reliever, I'd be all over it. Future teams would certainly benefit from having decent middle relievers making league minimum.