monty57

At some point someone will have to replace Rickie and Corey - but why push those dates up when the options for filling their shoes aren't good? Because if you hold them through their contracts you get nothing in return, but if you trade them you get something in return. There's no guarantee that we will be willing to pay either player whatever the new CBA says we'd have to pay in order to receive draft pick compensation (I believe the current contract is around $12MM which escalates every year). This is certainly not absolute, but basically you trade them if the marginal difference between the player and his replacement + the return from trade +/- the cost difference > having the player for the remainder of the contract.* Naturally, the return you will receive will decline as the "remainder of the contract" portion approaches zero, so a GM has to put together a lot of variables and make a determination on when (or if) the time is right to cash in on the remaining equity of a good player. It's much more complicated than simply saying "they're good, so hold them until their contracts run out." I like both of the players as well, and would like to keep them. I'd like to still have Fielder and Sabathia too. However, at some point, it makes sense to get some value in return for losing your stars. *None of these (other than cost) are tangible numbers, so it's not a cut and dried decision. That's why teams pay so much for scouts and "stat guys."

I don't know that putting Gamel 8 would set him up for failure, but it would cause the team to score fewer runs, as it would mean their far-and-away worst hitter (Gonzalez) would get more PAs (and more PAs with runners on), and it would cause Gamel to have less runners on in front of him (batting behind Lucroy & Gonzalez rather than Braun, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez), so Gamel would have less chance of knocking in runners. I do agree that it would be unwise to bat anyone but Gonzalez in the #8 spot. If I had to guess, I'd put it 50/50 in the #8 hitter being Gonzalez or Lucroy. Roenicke kept Lucroy there last year when he shouldn't have, so I wouldn't doubt Lucroy will be there again. It probably should be Gamel, Lucroy, Gonzalez, and I could stomach Gamel, Gonzalez, Lucroy or maybe even Lucroy, Gamel, Gonzalez, so really I'll only be upset if Gonzalez is #6 or Gamel is #8.

Wouldn't it be nice if the Cubs could send the Cardinals' best pitcher to the Red Sox :-)

Weeks is signed through 2015, and Gennett spent last season in high-A. Weeks may get traded in the future, but I would guess it wouldn't be at least until after the 2013 season unless something unforeseen happens. In 2014 Weeks is due $11MM, and it is also when we will have to pay Ramirez $16MM, Yo $11.25MM, Braun $10MM and Axford & Lucroy hit arby, so how the rest of the team is made up may be a deciding factor. If we extend Greinke or have to pay veteran FAs to come in to make up our rotation, we may need salary relief. Plus, you never know what offer may be out there... in a couple of years it may be worth it to trade a mid-30's Weeks to whom we owe $22.5MM if we can get the right package in return. The Hart situation is just closer to reality right now, as Hart is a FA after 2013, Gindl and Schafer are in AAA and we have Morgan, Gomez and Aoki in the majors. If we want to get something in return for Hart rather than just letting him walk, we will have to trade him at some time. The question would be whether that time would be mid-season 2012 (if we're out of it), next offseason, or mid-season 2013. I hope we're not out of it at trade deadline this year, so I think Melvin will have to look long & hard at trading Hart next offseason.

I don't really like either choice, as Izturis is probably a low .600 OPS guy with good/great defense, while Renteria is probably a mid-to-high .600 OPS guy who probably isn't very good at defense at this point (at least not at SS). Maybe it's just the recent memories of our defense costing us a chance at the World Series, but I'd take the good fielding, light hitting utility IF over the poor fielding, slightly-less-light-hitting utility IF. If we were talking the pre-2007 Renteria, then it's a no-brainer, but I don't think he's that player anymore, so let's go with the guy who can play the field.

I think the division switch is overrated. The Cardinals are defending champions and while they did lose Albert, they added Beltran and they have guys coming into their own too. The Brewers, even without Prince, aren't chopped liver either. And the Reds still have Votto, who with Fielder and Albert gone, is the premier 1B in the NL. He's also certainly not going to have the support offensively he had in NY. Besides Burnett is 35. How much of a rebound can you expect from a guy that age? This isn't the roid era where Clemens got better at that age. Agreed, but the big change in moving from the AL to the NL is the ability to face a SP instead of a DH. This really comes down to relativity. How does AJ Burnett stack up vs Correia, McDonald, Karstens, Morton and Bedard? If he is better than any of them, then the Pirates have upgraded their team. IIRC, they'll only owe him around $6.5MM per year, so it should be a decent move for them without a whole lot of risk.

It's funny. If you look at the AMA site, it states that a breach of confidentiality is ethical, but not binding by law, and goes on to state that with technological gains, "access to confidential patient information has become more prevalent." However, if you go to a law firm's site, you're more likely to find that it is legally binding and a patient can sue over a breach of confidentiality. The point about the databases containing information is intriguing (and scary). It is possible that someone outside of the "select few" would have access to the information if it were added to the medical databases. I don't know how these test are classified, but they are "health care," and I believe it is now generally required by law for most health care cases to be added to the databases. Basically, once it's added, anyone with access can find the information and if so willing, can do whatever they'd like with that information, such as selling it to a national media outlet.

True, but next offseason the equation will have to be whether Gindl + the return from trading Hart is equal or greater than holding Hart.

I believe someone mentioned this earlier, but there's "trade value" and then there's "value to the team." It's entirly possible that McGehee has more "trade value" as he's a 3B and Veras is a middle reliever. If both play to their peak ability, we'll probably look like the losers of the trade. However, after signing Ramirez, McGehee had little value to the Brewers while Veras should have a lot of value to the Brewers, so really for the Brewers we should be more concerned with how Veras does going forward rather than what McGehee ends up doing. If Veras pans out, we could have the best bullpen in the majors, which could greatly help our chance of winning the division. I guess the real test is that Melvin probably called every team in the league before calling another NL Central team, and the best offer he got was for Veras, which means that at the time of the trade, they had equal "trade value," while Veras is more valueable to the Brewers. Like most trades, this one could benefit both teams, or one of the players could completely flop going forward, making it a one-sided trade.

You mean like wind speed, noise level, etc? Not trying to be a wise guy, and maybe I don't understand the complete dynamics of the tests, but I just don't understand what conditions could be variable from test to test. Maybe the tester was a Cardinals fan, and the unfathomably high test results stemmed from someone "spiking" the sample. Maybe the person who was supposed to clean the sample jars forgot and Braun's sample was in a jar was recently used by someone from the WWE. Maybe someone had a lot of money on the series, and paid someone to tamper. At some point, a human has to be involved in the testing, so therefore there could be human error (or malice) involved. Maybe not likely, but possible.

Why should we have to make the bullpen manager proof? Because I don't trust our current manager to make a good in-game decision, and I really don't trust him to make a good out-of-game decision unless it's blatently obvious (i.e. keeping Loe in the 8th inning over Saito/Hawkins until K-Rod was acquired, keeping McGehee & Yuni starting all year because we didn't pick up an All Star at SS or 3B, signing Ramirez because otherwise Roenicke didn't know who to use as his cleanup hitter). Maybe a designated spot for a reliever isn't "statistically optimal," but it sure beats having the manager's gut tell him Loe's a good choice with three lefties coming up.

I really don't think there is only one person in the universe that knows which way this story is leaning. From the bits and pieces I've heard, the panel is made up of one guy who's a union stooge who always votes for the player, one guy who's a MLB yes man who always votes against the player, and an "independent arbitor." If this is the case, then only the "independent" arbitor would know which way he is leaning, so unless that person is the source or has discussed his leanings with the source, then there really could be no source. Now, the arbitor could have texted Bud Selig and the source could be hacking Bud's iPhone account, so it is possible there could be a source. We'll never know for sure.

Reporters make all kinds of predictions. No, reporters report facts and let the viewers make a determination about those facts. Unfortunately, we have very few reporters left in this country. It is kind of funny that one of the biggest "news" stories everyday in sports is that there is no news on Braun. Kind of like the old skit, "In further news... the sky is still blue."

Generally speaking, I agree. However, since I figure Roenicke is going to do it, I'd rather it be someone who can pitch against RHB & LHB. I don't know if Veras will do well in the role, but if his aquisition means that Loe will not be put in a role where he will regularly face LHB, then it's a good thing. Of course, our best case scenario may be for Parra and Braddock to be healthy and productive. One of them could be matched with Veras in the 7th inning to play the matchup, and one could be matched with Loe prior to the 7th inning to play the matchup. That might almost be a Roenicke-proof bullpen.

Good post Gregmag. Gindl seems to have a good knack for getting on base, which is not a bad thing. The negatives I've read about him - those claiming his ceiling is as a 4th OF - stem from the belief that he doesn't have the prototypical body type of a corner OF. I hope the Brewers don't keep him down solely due to that stereotype. If he doesn't pan out, he doesn't pan out, but it should be due to his ability and not his height. If we had not signed Aoki, I thought a good approach would have been to sign Johnny Gomes and platoon him in LF with Gindl for the first 50 games. Gomes destroys LHP and Gindl could have "gotten his feet wet" with pretty regular playing time in a platoon, and then gone back to AAA to play everyday when Braun returned, while Gomes could have been the RH power bat off the bench we're missing. If Gindl played adequately in the majors and continued to mature in AAA, the Brewers could think of trading Hart next offseason and supplanting him with Gindl. As it played out, we did sign Aoki, so the above scenario will not transpire. However, we are still going to need a 5th OF if Braun is indeed suspended. I don't like the thought of wasting Gindl or Schafer on the bench for 50 games, but we really don't have much of a choice unless we think Conrad or Green can fill in LF or if we decide to go with four OF, three of which are probably best categorized as CF's.

I think it's good that the Brewers stuck to their guns and took this to arbitration, even though there wasn't a big gap in the bid/ask. Nothing against Veras, but the Brewers gave him a fair offer, and from the article on milwaukeebrewers.com, it doesn't sound like Veras' group was going to budge on their asking price. That said, Veras could be a big part of the bullpen this year. You know Roenicke is going to want a "7th inning guy" spot, and I hope Veras is going to be able to fill this role and give us a lockdown 'pen when we get quality starts from the rotation. If he can do this, he will certainly be worth much more to the 2012 Brewers than McGehee would have been as a backup 1B/3B.

Looks like Veras and the Brewers are going to an arbitration hearing. Brewers offering $2MM and he's asking $2.375.

Rosenthal should hope that if he is ever wrongly convicted of something that the people deciding his fate do not share his convictions.

Is it so terrible to pay a reliable middle of the order 3B/1B $12M per year with a 3 year commitment? Also all that matters is that he's making $12M per, not $16M in 2014. It's actually $6M, $10M, $16M, $4M and it's cheaper for us to pay him that big number in 2014 and defer $4M all the way until 2015. Although, I don't like his 'first pitch' mentality, but if he produces with it I won't complain. Not necessarily. My guess is that they structured the contract the way they did because they couldn't afford any more payroll this year. By backloading it the way they did, they basically made him untradeable, as few if any teams are going to be willing to pay the 2014 version of Ramirez $16MM + a $4MM buyout unless the Brewers pick up a good share of the contract. In my opinion, they would have been better off paying him $12MM / year, but again, they probably couldn't afford the extra money this year. The Ramirez signing was definitely a "go for it" move for 2012, and I just hope he holds up (both physically and production-wise) for the next few years. I also hope his signing doesn't keep us from extending Greinke, who is far more important for the continued success of the Brewers beyond 2012.

I think Ramirez will be fine this year, and we'll have a pretty good offense, especially when Braun's in the middle of it. I like Green, and I think he'll get his opportunities this season when Ramirez and/or Weeks get injured. The worry comes in year two, and especially year three of the contract when an old Ramirez will make around $16MM. I doubt that contract will be tradeable, and I don't think it will go over too well with the fans or ownership if $450k Green ends up starting while $16MM Ramirez is a RH bat off the bench. The contract's signed, so we'll have to hope he stays healthy and productive for a few years.

Note that I said Gindl or Schafer would probably be up as the 5th OF if Braun's suspended, and would only get 10-20 PAs before being shipped back to AAA. I also said that the better option would be for the Brewers to pick up a RH vet corner OF to platoon with Aoki in LF while/if Braun's out. I'd keep the vet RH corner OF on when Braun's back and trade Morgan at that point if Aoki has looked capable in the 50 games he gets everyday play. The key in all of this would be to find a veteran RH corner OF, and I really don't know who that would be at this point, which is why my "probable" scenario was: I expect that if Braun is suspended we will see Aoki in LF, Gomez/Morgan in CF and Hart in RF with one of Gindl or Schafer as the 5th OF, who will probably see 10-20 PAs over the 50 games. When Braun returns (or if he is not suspended), Gindl/Schafer will go back to AAA, and Aoki and Morgan will fight it out for playing time as the LH CF platoon mate to Gomez, with Hart getting a start a week or so against LHP at 1B, when we will play an OF of Braun in LF, Gomez in CF and either Morgan or Aoki in RF. If there is a better option for 5th OF if Braun is out, I will agree that Gindl & Schafer should play everyday at AAA. That "better option" is not Patterson (not issued an NRI), so my guess is that if Braun is suspended we will see Gindl or Schafer on the opening day roster unless Melvin/Roenicke think Conrad can play LF.

the Brewers can pretty comfortably go 7 deep now (Estrada, Peralta) rather than 6 deep like last year. Going into last season we were really four deep with Greinke injured. Luckily, Estrada exceeded everyone's expectations and pitched pretty well as a starter. I hope we stay healthy at SP, but I am much more comfortable this year with Peralta waiting in the wings than I was last year with all of our good minor leaguers still a year or two away. Loe was very good once they had 3/4 better relievers than him They probably had that all year, but Roenicke insisted he was the "8th inning guy" until K-Rod was brought on board. Hopefully Roenicke sees the error of his ways and only uses Loe vs RHB and he will be fine. Who cares about HR's, we lost Prince and possibly playing without Braun for 50 games, there is no way we get close to the HR output we did last year. That being said not having to rely on the HR to score runs might actually help us become more consistent. I agree. The offense will be different, but I think could be more consistant. I think Aoki should be a decent OBP guy, so to start the season, we could have two guys (Aoki & Morgan) who can get on base in front of Weeks, Ramirez & Hart, who are all good hitters. Once Braun's back, our middle of the order will be pretty good. Gamel will be a downgrade from Fielder (as would most any hitter in baseball), but he should hit better than McGehee/Yuni did in the 5/6 spots in the order for us last year.

I expect that if Braun is suspended we will see Aoki in LF, Gomez/Morgan in CF and Hart in RF with one of Gindl or Schafer as the 5th OF, who will probably see 10-20 PAs over the 50 games. When Braun returns (or if he is not suspended), Gindl/Schafer will go back to AAA, and Aoki and Morgan will fight it out for playing time as the LH CF platoon mate to Gomez, with Hart getting a start a week or so against LHP at 1B, when we will play an OF of Braun in LF, Gomez in CF and either Morgan or Aoki in RF. It would make more sense to me, whether Braun is suspended or not, to pick up a RH corner OF bat and then trade Morgan when Braun comes back (if he's suspended) or right now if Braun is not suspended. Then we would have a potential platoon partner for Aoki while Braun's out, and someone RH to play RF when Hart plays 1B against LHP. Melvin has been pretty good at picking up over the hill veteran OFs for around $800k, so I'm kind of surprised we haven't seen one on an NRI. If the latter case played out, I would think we could get something of value for Morgan, who is coming off a pretty good season. I'd look for either a good relief pitcher, which we need at the MLB level, or some good prospects to build up the farm. It could be argued that either of these would be more valueable than having both Morgan and Aoki on the MLB roster, as they're probably redundant.

I never said Gamel needs to be replaced so I hope that isn't directed at me. No, it's directed at all the media and fans who say we're going to stink because we lost Fielder and haven't replaced him with {insert veteran name here} I want him to start every day against RHP but at the same time I want an insurance policy in case he doesn't get the job done. First, Gamel has hit LHP as well as RHP for his long tenure in the minors, so I don't know why people say he needs a platoon partner other than the fact that he's young (MLB experience-wise) and left handed. Second, he can't "start every day" and be replaced by the "insurance policy." He's either your starting 1B or not. Are you saying that you would give him "x" number of days to "prove himself," and if he doesn't perform to a certain standard, the "insurance policy" would take over? If so, what is a reasonable number of PAs in which to determine if Gamel has "proven himself" worthy or unworthy of a starting spot? Ryan Braun posted an OPS of .708 in June of 2010, followed by a July .615 OPS. That was 215 PAs, so even Hall of Fame caliber players can have bad periods. Should we ignore all Gamel's done in his minor league career, and replace him with an "insurance policy" if he has a bad 200 PAs. Or is that too many PAs, or too few? Also, which good, starting caliber veteran is going to sit idly by as an "insurance policy," waiting to see if Gamel succeeds or fails in his trial by fire? Then we throw in the Roenicke factor. In my opinion, Roenicke likes veteran players more than he likes rookies (just an opinion, may not be true). I believe that if someone like Derrick Lee is on the roster, Gamel would not get much "rope" before Lee would be the everyday 1B, and Gamel would be another LH bat on the bench. This isn't a normal year for the Brewers with 3/5 of our rotation possibly leaving so our window to win is pretty much this year unless we bring back Greinke and our young arms pan out. Agreed, because we've traded away much of our young talent for high priced veterans. So the answer shouldn't be to block the only young talent we have. How do we have a chance of signing Greinke (who along with Braun, Weeks, Gallardo and Ramirez will make a boatload of money) if we don't have a good number of pre-arby guys playing significant roles? How are we going to have pre-arby guys playing significant roles if we continually trade them or sign veterans to block them? I get the whole point of adding cost controlled players but lets not pretend that the $3M it would take to sign Derrek Lee for one season would bankrupt this organization. Our front office has said that they had a budget of around $85-90MM for the year, and we're over $100MM. How far over budget can we go? I don't know, but it's not like $3MM is chicken feed. $3MM is 3.5% of our projected budget. It's 600% of what Gamel will make. It's a lot of money! I could certainly envision a scenario where the owners would say "I dug into my own pocket in 2012 for a playoff push, so now we have to lower payroll so I can pocket some money this year." Would people be so cavalier about spending another $3MM for a slight upgrade if it meant going to a $70-75MM payroll in 2013? How about that payroll with Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, Hart and Ramirez taking up most of the payroll, so the rest of the team would be made up of $800k veterans and rookies? I don't see that happening, but if we go too far over budget it might... especially if we don't make the playoffs this year. If everyone wants to give Mat Gamel the shot without having any competition then why not just start the rebuilding phase right now? I think that's a bit of overkill. If we had an unlimited budget, then I'd guess that the only time we'd ever see a rookie in a Brewer uniform is if they were an uber-elite prospect, and even then they would have to fight to get playing time. We don't so occasionally we need to allow prospects to play. Gamel has hit at every level at which he has been given consistent playing time. Sure he could fail, but so could almost anyone. Really, how much of an upgrade is Lee? He's old and declining, so he could very well be a low-to-mid .700 OPS guy. Lets sell off Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, K-Rod and go back to the days when we dreamed about having a .500 team. Well, by going well over budget this year, and not gettting anything in return for Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, K-Rod, etc. we could be back to those days as early as next year. I hope it's not the case, but signing Ramirez to a back-loaded deal may be enough to not allow us to extend Greinke. That move blocked Green, and brought in a veteran (which is what you're calling for at 1B) and may be an anchor on our franchise over the next two seasons, all so we could have a better shot this year. We can't do that very often and still hope to have winning baseball in Milwaukee beyond 2012. We are mid-market, we have a budget and we cannot sign a veterean to play every position, or to "be a $3MM insurance policy."

Fans just don't understand whats at stake this season and it frustrates the heck out of me. I understand what's at stake. We are a mid-market team which needs to constantly have some key positions filled with league minimum guys in order for us to be able to afford some high-priced talent on the team. We have recently traded away much of our minor league talent to bring on high priced veteran players, and we have blocked some of our promising AAA talent with the addition of more high priced veterans on the MLB roster. We are now well over our projected budget for the season and everyone from fans to media analysts say that we should jettison our one talented rookie in favor of yet another high-priced veteran who may be worse than our current league minimum guy. So to me, what's at stake is whether we bankrupt ourselves for a potential small upgrade on a team which is already straining at the purse strings or whether we allow some young talent to play in an attempt to have some kind of cost control so that future teams can also be good. If we continue to try to "be like the big markets," so that we don't frustrate the short-term-minded fans, at some point the house of cards will collapse. I don't want to get to the point where we have to trade away someone like Weeks, Braun or Gallardo so that we can continue to pay Ramirez $16MM. That's how I perceive what's at stake, and hearing people say that Gamel needs to be replaced simply because he's "unproven" frustrates the heck out of me. We're not banking on Erick Almonte here, Gamel's a good player and we need to give him a chance.