monty57

I am not sure Greinke or Marcum will garner much interest Greinke (if not extended) would Garner plenty of interest, as any team would be willing to offer him a 1-year / $12MM deal which would garner them draft picks. Marcum is more of a question mark, depending on how he pitches up to trade deadline... was the end of last season something to worry about?. That said, point taken that Hart would be a big trade possibility if the Brewers are out of it at the deadline, and should definitely be shopped next offseason. If you were to trade Morgan I am not sure you would get much of anything in return for him. You would be lucky to get anything better than what was given up for him last year. We would almost certainly get more than we gave up, as we got him from a team that was dumping him for nothing because he didn't get along with management. In Milwaukee, he was the centerpiece of a team that seemed to get along very well, and more importantly he played well. Now, I don't expect a tremendous return, but as I mentioned earlier, I think the Brewers would be better off this season if we could just get a RH-hitting backup corner OF and a decent prospect. I am not worried about Aoki getting playing time as Braun and Hart have been injured or hurt themselves at one point in a season for the last two years I believe. I believe Aoki is going to get plenty of playing time spelling Hart on occasion and whenever Braun needs a day off. Depending on Aoki's defense he could also be a late game replacement. I guess it depends on your definition of "plenty of playing time." Aoki is a superstar in Japan. That doesn't mean he'll be a superstar over here, but late inning defensive replacement with 2-3 starts a month isn't "plenty of playing time" for a good player, it's only "plenty of playing time" for a 5th OF. I hope Aoki is better than that. He would also almost certainly be the #1 LH bat off the bench, which means Green will be buried if he is on the bench. Also, as I mentioned earlier, I don't want Hart (and certainly not Braun) getting replaced on a regular basis for a "defensive specialist." Hart is a good hitter and Braun is elite. I'm not a big fan of continuously taking your best bats out of the lineup for 1/3 of a game. That strategy could take 100+ PAs from Hart & Braun and give them to Gomez, and put us in situations where Morgan has to face LHP because Gomez is already playing for Hart (that happened a few times at the end of last year when Roenicke employed this strategy).

I'm with Ennder. Whoever they put at closer should be able to post 20+ saves. An average middle reliever will get nothing in trade, but the same guy with the "proven closer" tag added to his name will net a decent return in trade. I don't know their personnel very well, but at least Myers has a name and "veteran status," so even if they don't trade him now, someone will want him mid-season as a starter. Unless they know something about him injury-wise, or unless they have some very promising young SP who need to be in the rotation, I think they'd be better off leaving him as a starter and giving the closer role to one of their middle relievers.

An extra .350+ OBP CF? Who's the other .350 OBP+ CF? It's not Gomez, that's for sure. It may be hard to believe but last year may have been Gomez worst year offensively. Yes, he had his highest OPS of his career, but he also had the lowest AVG and OBP of his career (neither of which have ever been any good anyway). Gomez is great on defense but he is no where near the player you would trade Morgan to get him on the field more. Even if he was to platoon with Morgan or Aoki in CF, his splits are not all that much more favorable against lefties. Morgan may have trade value but unless Aoki can replace his production trading him would be a negative. No, certainly not Gomez. He's allergic to getting on base. I mentioned above that I think Aoki is very similar to Morgan (good defense but a weak arm, good contact, good OBP, little power), only Aoki seems to be able to hit LHP, which Morgan can't do. With Braun winning his appeal, we now essentially have three CF's and no backup corner OF. If I were Melvin, I'd at least test the market to see what Morgan would bring in, and if a deal can be struck, then I'd place Aoki into the role Morgan played in 2011, while picking up a veteran RH bat. I'm not overly worried if we go into the season with Morgan, Gomez and Aoki on the roster, as they can all help the team. The worries I do have are: - That we don't have a good RH bat on the bench, which could be solved if our 5th OF were a RH corner OF. - If we have two good defensive OF on the bench, I could see Roenicke replacing Hart late in games (as he did at the end of last season) far too often. Hart's one of our better hitters, and giving those PAs to Morgan/Aoki/Gomez could bite us as the # of PAs adds up. - If Aoki or Morgan is on the bench, they will be the #1 LH bat, regardless of situation, so if Green is on the roster, he will not see the light of day - If Hart is indeed going to get starts at 1B, it would be against LHP (Gamel is a lefty). Replacing him with Aoki or even worse Morgan doesn't seem ideal. - Aoki may get buried. He has the potential to be a really good player, and he may only get a handful of starts all season.

A lot can change in a year. What would we have received for McGehee after 2010 vs what we got after 2011? We picked up Axford for nothing, and he's almost untouchable now. A year ago, when people thought of Morgan, they probably thought of him charging a mound or yelling at a fan. Now they probably think of his hit propelling the Brewers to the NLCS, and all of the T-Plush craze amongst the fans. Also, once Roenicke realized Morgan was on the team, he used him well last year, so his numbers look good because they're not weighed down with a bunch of PAs vs LHP. When used correctly, Morgan has always been a valueable player. I wouldn't expect a huge return, but we'd get a lot more than we paid. A lot of teams would like a .350+ OBP good defense CF. We just happen to have an extra one of those, so it might make sense to trade one of them.

Okay, buddy. He wasn't in position to be marketed as a closer after half a season as a setup guy? He CHOSE to accept arbitration. He wasn't in position to be marketed as a closer, because nobody wanted to give him a big multi-year deal with a guarantee to close. That has nothing to do with the fact that he set up one of the league's best closers last year, that has to do with the fact that he's not nearly as good as he used to be. I agree in theory, but if two pitchers have exactly the same season stats-wise, but one was used as a closer and racked up a bunch of saves, while one was used in middle relief, the one who got the saves will get a bigger contract. I'd guess that teams were using his 2011 circumstances against him in negotiations, trying to get him to sign a lower-dollar-value deal, and that's why he's suing his former agent. I don't like that we're paying him so much money, but it's a done deal, so I hope it works out for the best for the Brewers.

I'm not a Roenicke fan, but I think most managers are extended rather than letting them play out their contract. As someone stated, I'd expect the option to be exercised so he's not a "lame duck," and maybe have another option year added. I'm sure Attanasio isn't thinking about giving him a five year deal or anything like that.

I understand the arguement for trading Hart for a SP for 2013 & beyond, but I think that there is absolutely no chance we are trading Hart right now. It could have devastating effects on our lineup, which will already be adjusting to playing without Fielder. I could see him traded next offseason, or even mid-season if we're out of it, but not now. If an OF gets traded now, I think it should be Morgan, as I view Aoki as a Nyjer Morgan who can hit LHP. If we could trade Morgan for a backup RH corner OF plus a decent prospect I'd take it. We would then have Braun, Gomez/Aoki, Hart, with a backup who could be our primary RH bat off the bench, and could play RF against tough lefties when Hart gets his occasional starts at 1B. We'd save $1.5MM or so from our bloated payroll, which may help us pick up a players of need mid-season (another Hairston or bullpen help), and we'd slightly upgrade our weak farm system. If we could get more than that, I'd be thrilled.

Mike Greenberg (on Mike & Mike) actually seemed to put a lot of thought into it and had a decent segment. He compared Braun to Clemens. Clemens went everywhere shouting he was innocent, while Braun went back to the MLB office and said he wanted to submit a DNA sample which would prove the sample wasn't his - the MLB office told him no - and then he submitted another sample. He said he couldn't decide what to think of Braun's innocence/guilt, but that Braun seemed to take actions an innocent person would take. He also said a trusted independent arbitor had enough information to side with Braun after disseminating the information, and that should bear some weight. It's funny that I haven't seen any of the sports shows actually bring in someone who knows something about the testing process. Listening to reporters and former athletes blather on (whether they're "pro" or "anti" Braun) gets tiresome after I've read through pebadger and others' posts so I have some insight into the process. Eric Byrnes kept saying that his biggest fear in his last few years was that he would get a "false positive," so he stopped taking any supplements. If the supplements increased the "T", it would be a real positive, not a false positive. A false positive means you don't have elevated "T" but the test says you did. Reynolds kept saying "Just drink water and lift weights, don't take supplements." Again, that may be good advice, but it's not pertinant to this case, as Braun seemed to argue that the sample either wasn't his or that it was tampered with. Some type of editing / fact checking would be nice on national programs.

Yeah, as nice as the Braun decision is, it opens up a question here. If the Brewers believe in Aoki, they should start shopping Morgan. Aoki could make a good pinch hitter, but you may be wasting his talents there, and it would mean that Taylor Green (if he's on the bench) would get absolutely no PA's this season. I'd rather get something for Morgan, platoon Aoki & Gomez in CF and pick up a RH corner OF who would be our #1 RH bat off the bench, and the guy who plays RF on the days Corey is at 1B. It will be interesting to see if Melvin goes with what he has, or if he decides to make a move.

I'm heading home to put on my Braun jersey and turn on MLBtv

From ESPN.com: "National League MVP Ryan Braun has won the appeal of his 50-game suspension by a 2-1 vote by an arbitration panel, Major League Baseball announced Thursday." Boy, that's quite a story after dragging him through the mud for months and going on record as saying he should give back his MVP.

RockCo, I agree that there is no way we're trading Hart or Weeks now. Whether one agrees with how the team has been built or not, we have a roster that should contend for the division, so we're not getting rid of any major pieces. However, if we tank this season, Hart could be moved mid-season, and I think Melvin should really explore the option of trading Hart next offseason when he only has one more year on his contract and we'll probably need pitching. Barring something unforeseen, I think Weeks should be a Brewer until at least after the 2013 season.

To be fair, Pujols just said that out of respect for Stan Musial the baseball player and Stan Musial the person, he doesn't want to be known as "El Hombre," which is Spanish for "The Man." It doesn't sound like he's mad, just that no one notified him of the ads, and he would rather they not be continued.

Does the team really need 3 guys for defensive purposes in CF? No, which is why I think we may use Braun's potential 50 game hiatus as a testing ground for Aoki. If he doesn't look overmatched, then I think we could trade Morgan away when Braun returns and move Aoki into Morgan's role. Then we'd have room to bring up a decent bat who could also back up corner OF/1B. The whole drawn-out Braun things has kept us from picking up the $800k vet I expected, so I don't know who this "decent bat who could also back up corner OF/1B" may be at this point. In regards to the bench, I think a person's opinion will depend on their opinion of Green and Aoki. An optimist will see a good prospect in Green who could be at least an average MLB 2B/3B, and a Japanese batting champ who should be a good MLB leadoff hitter with Gold Glove-caliber defense. A pessimist will see a so-so prospect who could easily flame out and some foreign guy who has never faced a decent pitcher. I lean more towards the former, so I think our bench will be okay, although I would prefer a better RH bat, and I don't want to see Green wasting away on the bench as he probably will. In that regard, I would probably like to see Conrad replace Green on the bench, but I don't know that we have the 40-man space at the moment. I am starting to get over my absolute starvation for anyone who could play defense which I had after last season's playoffs. Therefore, I can now see how bad Izturis is with a bat, and I will once again wish that we could have someone in the minors who could step in if our starting SS gets hurt. Izturis is fine as a bench player who will get a rare start. If Gonzalez gets a serious injury, our offense will have a gaping hole in it named Izturis. It's a bad thing when I have to worry about the offense dropping off if Gonzalez gets hurt :-)

My guess is they either know they're going to end up with egg on their faces, or MLB told them to keep quiet. Like most "news" networks, they're all about ratings. I'd guess they found out that spending 23 hours a day discussing Jeremy Lin gets better ratings than saying there is no news on Braun. coupled with MLB network sending their people to Maryvale Matt Vasgersian (?-sp) did a piece on the Brewers regarding Braun last night on MLB Network. Nothing big in the piece other than players saying there was no distraction because everyone is 100% behind Braun. However, at the end, Matt said they expect a decision within 24-to-48 hours. Note that this was taped and played yesterday, so if he is correct, we should hear something today or tomorrow.

There were a lot of valid points in the post. Whether you agree or disagree with the statement you quoted, do you use that one small tidbit of the post to completely disregard everything else in the post? All-in-all, I think it was a good post, and covered a lot of concerns I share. I've enjoyed watching the Brewers rise from being the worst franchise in baseball to becoming a perennial playoff contender, but I have some big worries. Most notably, Melvin has developed a problem with ever being a seller and as a team we seem to be getting awful gun-shy about trusting rookies. This is leading us to seemingly unsustainable payroll levels, and could very well lead us to a point where a few beyond-their-prime players are eating up most of our payroll and we have no talented league minimum players to fill in around them. The allusion to the current Cub roster is something I've feared as well. We have to at least entertain all the options out there. To simply disregard the mere thought of trading Hart or Weeks (or anyone else) seems short-sighted. Sure they're good players, but there are other good players out there, and maybe we could find a team looking for an All Star RF who would give us good, young talent in return. We could get younger, better and cheaper. It's at least an option worth exploring.

Yes, the Brewers lost Fielder which will most certainly hurt. However, it is not like they signed Sean Berry to replace him. Regardless of the fact that he plays 3B and Fielder plays 1B, Ramirez was signed to replace Fielder. Gamel essentially replaces McGehee. I think it is very likely the Brewers can get 90% of what Fielder and McGehee gave the 2011 Brewers (51 HRs, 187 RBI) from Ramirez and Gamel. Well put WTP. Concise and easy to understand. I think the Ramirez contract could look bad in a couple of years, but he should help make this year's lineup pretty good, especially if Braun is around all year. To the title of the thread, it's kind of surprising that the Wall Street Journal would utilize a system which disregards cost and only takes into account production. Probably not the best valuation matrix.

I guess my point was that if he gets the same deal as Weaver, he probably makes $5-6MM more than Weaver because he isn't giving that money to his agent. Even if he got the highest-priced contract attorney in the land to read over and amend the contract where needed, he'd probably pay a few thousand instead of a few million. I certainly wouldn't advise most players to work without an agent, but if the player is reasonably competent and has some faith in his organization, he could easily do it. That said, good post Oldcity. That adds to my desire to see an extension done. The odds of the Brewers replacing Greinke with similar talent seem pretty slim.

I'm really not on either side of this issue. I liked watching the Brewers when they had a DH in the AL, I like watching the Brewers with no DH in the NL, and I like watching the Brewers when they play with a DH in interleague play. The record of the AL vs the NL in interleague play really seems to be getting lopsided enough (and have a large enough sample size) to show that they have a decided advantage over the NL, so it does make sense to go either all DH or no DH, and that is compounded now that interleague will be spread out over the full season, so NL teams will have a harder time calling up a batter from AAA for a couple of weeks to cover the interleague schedule. If I had to guess, it looks to me like MLB is moving towards more interleague and a DH on every team, but that's just a guess. As to how this will affect the Brewers, at least in the short term, they'll have a place to put Ramirez while Green moves into 3B in 2013 & 2014. Ramirez would probably be one of the better DH's in the league, so it would probably have a positive short-term effect if it were installed right away (which it won't be). Long term is anyone's call, as it's really more on the GM doing a good job of filling the roster. Melvin seems to be good at finding players who can hit and not field, so I'd think we'd be okay.

I'm right there with you, and it can be kind of fun reading what other people's feelings are on the matter, but I don't want anyone to get too high or low based on someone else's speculation. No one will know anything until the arbitor makes the decision and we are informed what it is. If and until I hear otherwise, I'll hold out hope that he'll be cleared.

That's entirely possible, but really all Greinke has to do is say "I want the same deal Weaver got," have a good attorney read over the paperwork, and he will get what Weaver got without having the agent's commission taken out. Note: Feel free to insert "I want {year/value}" in place of "I want the same deal Weaver got" if you don't feel Weaver's deal is a reasonable barometer for Greinke. The point is that Greinke could easily work the deal himself if he is reasonably competent.

I highly doubt the MLB will try to get additional "shock value" out of this. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a really bland, monotonous person in a brown suit reading a prepared statement and not taking any questions. As to what any of this "means," I wouldn't try reading into anything. I know it's hard to wait, but there are equally valid reasons on either side as to whether something "means" something, so until we actually hear a statement, everything is pure speculation.

Just for reference, here's ESPN.com's projected DH's: Team: Name, age, salary (2011 line for avg/OBP/SLG/OPS): Baltimore: Wilson Betemit, 30, $1MM (.285/.343/.452/.795) Boston: David Ortiz, 36, $12.5MM (.309/.398/.554/.953) White Sox: Adam Dunn, 32, $12MM (.159/.292/.277/.569) Cleveland: Travis Hafner, 34, $13MM (.280/.361/.449/.811) Detroit: Delmon Young, 26, $5.375MM (.268/.302/.393/.695) Kansas City: Billy Butler, 25, $3.5MM (.291/.361/.461/.822) LA Angels: Bobby Abreau, 37, $9MM (.253/.353/.365/.717) Minnesota: Ryan Doumit, 30, $5.2MM (.303/.353/.477/.830) NY Yankees: Andruw Jones, 34, $1.5MM (.247/.356/.495/.851) Oakland: Jonny Gomes, 31, $1.75MM (.209/.325/.389/.714) Seattle: Jesus Montero, 22, league min (.328/.406/.590/.996) Tampa Bay: Luke Scott, 33, $6.4MM (.220/.301/.402/.703) Texas: Mike Napoli, 30, $5.8MM (.320/.414/.631/1.046) Toronto: Edwin Encarnacion, 29, $2.5MM (.272/.334/.453/.787) Avg age: 30.64 Avg Salary: $5.716MM

Then Kendall could play 162 games a year until he's 65.

The Pujols and Fielder signings highlight another advantage for the AL teams due in large part to the DH. While both contracts may prove bad, it's far easier for an AL team to sign a superstar to a long-term deal, because even if they start to break down, they can still play DH. There is no way an NL team, no matter how big a market, would sign both Cabrera and Fielder to long-term deals like the Tigers have. Not trying to justify the Pujols or Fielder deals, just pointing out another advantage AL teams currently have over NL teams.