monty57

I love deals like this. The player gets security and a small market team gets to hold onto one of its stars. The Pirates have some good, young talent. If they can develop this talent and lock them up, they could turn into a winning franchise.

I didn't include Parra, because I think he recently signed a guaranteed $1MM+ deal (it may have been one of those arby deals they can get out of if they drop him by a certain date), but I did include de la Cruz, Dillard and I added McClendon. I agree that it would probably be one of the pitchers who would be dropped if they decide to keep Conrad. I was just looking at 40-man space, and not options, so you have a point that Dillard or de la Cruz may get dumped regardless. I was half-asleep, but I think de la Cruz looked pretty good last night, and I like that fastball. He looked good at AAA last year, and did alright as a Brewer, so I'm kind of pulling for him to make the team.

Okay, I've gotten over the shock of seeing Weeks, Hart and Marcum out with injuries. I've climbed back from the ledge a little as I watched Weeks play well yesterday and heard Marcum will resume "baseball activities" in 2-3 days. We have a good team, and do have some depth at some positions. I like Aoki and I like Taylor Green. I'm glad our young pitchers are finally getting near-MLB ready, and I'm thrilled at the mere rumor that Greinke and the Brewers are "deep into talks" of an extension. That said, Schafer looked really good in CF, and if he hadn't gotten injured, we probably never would've made the Hardy for Gomez trade, and would've just started Schafer in CF two years ago. Seeing him healthy adds even more fuel to my fire that we should try to find a decent corner OF for Morgan. We're over-covered in CF, but weak in the backup corner OF spot. I like Aoki much more as Gomez' platoon partner in CF than I like him as a RF (his arm and lack of power are supposed to be his biggest weaknesses, and they're pretty much requisite for a RF). Seattle's CF has a torn pectoral muscle, and they have surplus corner OFs (Ichiro's not going to sit for a rookie), so give Jack Z a call and see if a deal can be struck. A good RH backup corner OF will do wonders for this team.

Our 40-man is full, and neither of these guys is on it. In order for one or both to make the roster, we'd need to free up space. Bianchi is on the 40-man, so he probably either makes the team or gets waived, making room for Izturis/Conrad. Wheeler, Maldonado and Kjeldgaard are the other position players on the 40-man who may have some chance of being waived. De La Cruz, Dillard and McClendon are the three pitchers who might have a chance of being waived. Barring injury or a tremendous showing at SS by Bianchi, I think Izturis is a lock to make the team, so I guess the question is: "Is Conrad worth potentially losing one of the above named players?" I'd like to see Green playing everyday at AAA, but my guess is that Green will make the team, along with one of Bianchi / Izturis.

There is no point in giving Axford $3 or $4 million dollars a year more than he makes now. I doubt we'd raise his current salary much. What he'd get out of it is a guarantee. If he gets hurt or flames out, he still gets paid. Therefore, teams can usually get a discount by guaranteeing a contract. It's also a way to get players to "give up" some free agent years, so the team can "control" the player longer. Finally, the team gains cost certainty, so they don't have to wait to see what the player is going to make in arbitration before figuring out how much money they have to spend. All of these are big pluses, and I'm a fan of signing extensions to star players who are still in their pre-arby years. However, in Axford's case, he's old enough that the Brewers already "control" him through his prime, so what the Brewers will likely be buying out are "past the prime" or "decline phase" years. Also, he's in a role which traditionally has a huge flame-out rate. Put these two together, and the Brewers are taking a big risk that they will owe a lot of money to a pitcher to whom they'd rather not be obligated to pay a lot of money. If this deal gets done, we have to hope that Axford is one of those few elite closers who can remain healthy and dominant into their mid-30's.

Please be true. I'd love to have Greinke and Yo both locked up for the next few seasons.

How do you feel about the White Sox? They are all Bears fans too I live in Illinois, and I've always found it funny that Cubs fans hate Sox fans and call them a bunch of criminals and thugs. Sox fans hate Cub fans, saying they're a bunch of drunk frat boys who don't even know there's a game going on. Then football season comes around and Bears fans say they're the best fans in the world. To your question, I grew up with the Brewers in the American League, and the White Sox were my least favorite team. I loved it when Scrap Iron wanted to fight the obnoxious Sox announcers.

I'd really like to see Aoki get a lot of playing time in RF to get accustomed to American baseball, with the Morgan & Gomez platoon staying in place in CF, but today's article on the Brewers' site makes it sound like Gomez will be the CF, and it will be "a team effort" in RF, where Morgan seems to be the primary starter at this point. I don't like that. Here's to hoping Hart heals quickly.

I may be overreacting, but with the potential of losing 3/5 of our starting rotation after the sesaon, this is as close to an "all in" season as we've seen. The massive increase in the payroll makes me think Mark A / Melvin also believe this is an "all in" year. I'd hate to think that an "all in" year, with a $100MM+ payroll, we would have to routinely watch Morgan face lefties or Estrada pitching on a regular basis. On the surface, it's possible that we have more depth than last year, but (A) we got lucky we didn't have many SP injuries last year, (B) we had Fielder, who played everyday and single-handedly made up for holes elsewhere, and © we had money to add some key pieces like K-Rod and Hairston late in the season. I like the team we have, so I hope I'm just overreacting on this. To topic, I also hope Hart doesn't miss much, if any, time, and I hope that Roenicke plays Aoki everyday in RF for any games Hart misses. I do think he has the possibility to be a good everyday player, but I don't think he's going to get the PAs to prove it, as my guess is Roenicke will go with Gomez in CF and Morgan in RF, which is probably where most of my angst is derived.

This decision is in place as a way to help the lower revenue teams. Maybe that's how it's being sold, but I'd bet the Rays knocking the Red Sox & Yankees out of the playoffs a few times in recent years is a big reason we're getting the extra Wild Card team. Now the Yankees and Red Sox are both almost assured of being in the playoffs every year. That is a dream scenario for MLB, as it brings in the most revenue. This move will also keep more teams in the playoff hunt, and therefore keep ratings up, bringing in more revenue. That may make it more fun for some fans, but it is certainly about the extra revenue. I'd guess the "more fun" factor will last for fans until "their team" gets bounced in a one-game playoff. They will then hate it. If the Yankees end up as the top Wild Card and get bounced by the Royals in one game, this may be a short-lived experiment. If we had 30 teams competing for 2 playoff spots that would be terrible. I agree, but it could easily domino in the other direction and become like the NHL or NBA where half the teams make it and the playoffs take longer than the regular season. There was talk of shortening the season in favor of additional playoff teams, which I don't like. I don't mind the Wild Card, as four teams from each league seems right, and for those who don't like the Wild Card, I guess we could add a couple of teams and have four 4-team divisions in each league with the division winners getting the playoffs. I just don't like the one-game playoff, which is the epitomy of a crap shoot. If we played each team in the league the same number of times we would not hate the cubs any more than the padres, which would suck. Any self-respecting Packer fan will always dislike Chicago teams more than others, even if we never played them :-)

This doesn't solve the problem, it just showcases why it is a problem. It also showcases how a serious injury could cripple us this year. We've put together a team which is significantly over budget, and we are still pretty shallow when it comes to depth. We have 3 CF, one good SP at AAA and Green to backup 2b/3b. Other than that, we're very open to injuries, and unlike previous years, we probably won't have the resources to pick up a player to fill in when someone goes down. IMO we have above average depth. we have 2 guys in Gomez and Aoki that I would be fine having to step into a starting role due to injury. You have Green who is the back up at 1st/2nd/ and 3rd. And IMO he could be starting on quite a few teams. SS & C I agree we are thin but thats it in the lineup which is better than most teams. As far as Pitching I consider us to have 8 legit SP's. Peralta, Estrada, & Fiers I would trust to start if an injury occurred I'm probably higher on Aoki then most, but he does carry a big question mark at the moment. Gomez can't hit, and Morgan can't hit lefties. All three are fine CF's, but are probably well below average offensively if they have to put up significant time at corner OF, especially if they are not allowed to play only in favorable match-ups (i.e. Morgan only facing RHP). At this time last year, this board was about to blow up over the thought of Gomez playing everyday, and that was at CF. Nothing has changed with him, the only thing that has changed is that he was only used against LHP last year, and we got reminded (by being forced to watch Kotsay in CF) that he is a really good defender in CF. If he played everyday in CF and Morgan played everyday in RF, we would suffer. Green has never played 1B, so I don't know why people keep putting him there. Same with Ramirez. Our backup 1B is either Hart (putting Aoki or Morgan in RF) or Ishikawa (?-sp). If Green is allowed to play everyday at AAA, then he'll probably do fine as a replacement for 2B/3B if Weeks or Ramirez go down, but I worry that they'll bury him on the bench until someone's hurt, making it very difficult to put up decent numbers when he is needed everyday. Either way, as much as I like him, Green is far from a "sure thing" prospect. If he was, Ramirez wouldn't be on the team. Peralta will probably enjoy a good career as an MLB starter. Fiers & Estrada not so much. In any case, most rookie SP have a hard time in their first go-round. I'm glad we're getting to a point where we have some young insurance at SP, but if we have a situation where we have a couple of SP go down for an extended period, we're probably not making the playoffs. If the Brewers decide to dip to AA to bring some talent up, then we have more quality depth, but they have been very hesitant to do that in the recent past (the last one I remember was Villanueva). Melvin has built this team by signing good players to big contracts and trading away a lot of our young talent to bring in other good players. That's left us a little thin in the "injury insurance" department, and it has probably left us with no funds to bring in replacements (like trading for a good SP mid-season if someone gets hurt). Peralta is the only "Top 100" prospect we have that is likely to see any time at the MLB level anytime soon, so I'd argue that we aren't covered really well this year. Sorry for bringing this off-topic. To topic, whether Hart is hurt or not, I feel that we'd be better if we could move one of our three CF for a comparably talented corner OF. Gomez is our only righty, I don't think it's "legal" to trade Aoki, so to me that would mean moving Morgan for a RH-hitting corner OF of around equal overall value to Morgan. I don't know if this is feasible, but if it is, I'd like to see it done, and Hart's injury makes me more interested in seeing it happen.

Take that scenario and imagine that the Tigers have 95 wins (that's more likely than the Twins) and the Angels have 87. There will be a one-game playoff and the 87-win Angels could knock the 97-win Red Sox out. One game, even though they have the 2nd best record in the league and 10 more wins than the Angels. The one-game playoff part is the joke. In one game, the worst team in baseball will often beat the best team in baseball. If there were a way to make it 3-games, then it would be okay, but adding this one-game playoff is a terrible idea. If you can't make something better, then keep it the way it is.

The initial report I heard was 2-4 weeks. If it's two weeks, he'll still get enough ST to start the season with the Brewers. If it's 3-4 weeks, he'll probably need some "extended ST" to get up to speed. Either way, it doesn't sound like they're expecting him to miss much of the regular season, and I just hope he doesn't rush back and have a poor first month like he did last season. If you limit the scope to 3 years on Nady, you have a point, but he has a much more extensive record than that. ESPN has season-by-season stats and a "3-year" option, which is handy to see how he's done in his latest three-year window. It looks like Nady kind of fell off a cliff a few seasons ago. Whether this was due to age, injury or what, I don't know. Conrad hasn't earned a sure lock on a major league job. Bring in somebody worthy to compete with him. That's my point. And that is a very valid point. I think that if Hart is going to be out for a while, Melvin will see who's out there on the corner OF market. If he's only going to miss a little (or no) time, then I think Conrad is basically competing with Taylor Green for a utility IF position (I think Izturis has backup SS locked).

He'll probably (hopefully) only miss a week or so of the season, during which time we'll likely have a CF playing RF. That's the reason this was a problem from the beginning... we have three CFs on the team and only two corner OF. Missing Hart for a week is no big deal, but I'd still like to have a better (preferably RH hitting) option as backup corner OF. Last year when Hart missed ST, he rushed back and put up terrible stats for a month or so. My guess is that after seeing Morgan facing off against LHP a couple of times, Hart will once again rush back, and play poorly for a month or so. This doesn't solve the problem, it just showcases why it is a problem. It also showcases how a serious injury could cripple us this year. We've put together a team which is significantly over budget, and we are still pretty shallow when it comes to depth. We have 3 CF, one good SP at AAA and Green to backup 2b/3b. Other than that, we're very open to injuries, and unlike previous years, we probably won't have the resources to pick up a player to fill in when someone goes down.

Good call, I didn't look to see how bad Nady has been. His three year splits vs LHP are .247 avg / .292 OBP / .385 SLG / .677 OPS. Unless there's something like an injury to explain this, I don't want to see him as a RH part of a platoon. Unless there is an available corner OF who can hit LHP, I'd rather see what Aoki can do. Of course, this may be moot if Hart only misses limited time with the injury. We're not going to pick someone up for a week.

Brian Kenney, who hosts Clubhouse Confidential (the SABR show on MLB Network) has done a couple of segments on why it's bad to bat a power hitter leadoff. Mainly it's about how often the player leads off the inning and how often he hits with no one on base (something like 70% of the time). He believes it's a bad idea for any team, but especially bad for an NL team with the pitcher batting 9. To me, Morgan is our best option for leadoff vs RHP, as he'll get on base at a .350+ clip and has some speed and baserunning ability. Not sure who I'd like there vs LHP... I might just go Weeks, Hart, Braun, Ramirez, Gamel, Lucroy, Gomez, Gonzalez. Lucroy (.291/.322/.547/.869 vs LHP in 2011) might be a decent leadoff option, but Kottaras will always catch Wolf and no one else, so with that stipulation you can't put a "vs LHP" lineup together with Lucroy at leadoff. Depending on how he pans out, Aoki might be a good everyday leadoff option, but we'll have to see if he gets enough PAs to prove himself one way or the other.

We'll have to see how the knee progresses. It sounds like there are three options: do nothing and play through it like Counsell did last year, scope it and probably miss 2-4 weeks, or do more major surgery where Hart would miss more time. If it's one of the first two (kind of sounds like they're hoping he's out 2-4 weeks, so they're probably planning on option 2), then nothing major needs to be done. If they find out that he'll need more surgery and will miss more than the first week or two of the season, then Melvin will probably look into signing someone like Nady and platoon RF & CF. I believe Conrad would need to be added to the 40-man, and they'd probably only do that if they thought he'd be useful for more than just the first week or two of the season. Therefore, unless Hart goes on the 60-day DL, I don't see this injury as having much effect on Conrad, as his chance depends on whether the Brewers want Taylor Green on the bench or playing everyday in AAA. I'd guess that if Hart has to miss a week or two we'll see Gindl or Schafer riding the Brewers' bench until Hart returns. Like it or not, the decision on whether it will be Morgan or Aoki playing RF everyday will probably depend on who performs better in Spring Training.

If it's at all telling, Roenicke started Gomez in CF and Morgan in RF (against a lefty) for today's game. Aoki subbed in for Braun later in the game.

MLB Network just announced that Axford's contract was renewed. I'd guess this is a formality, since they're discussing an extension.

Sounds to me like a way to ensure that the Rays don't keep one of the Yankees/Red Sox out of the playoffs, and a way to keep TV ratings up a little longer in a couple of markets. I dislike the concept of a one-game playoff. I'd hate to see the Brewers make the "playoffs" and only play one game. I'd much rather keep it the way it is. This is all about more revenue.

I'm neutral on the DH thing, as I see pluses and minuses to both sides. That said, with all the talk of extra interleague games and what to do with the DH, the first thing I thought of when I heard the new big named Pirates pitcher got hurt trying to bunt was that it would be used as an arguement for adding the DH in the NL. I'm sure every AL owner/GM is thinking "That could be our ace when he tries to bunt in the NL." It is too bad about Burnett. It helps the Brewers, but I hate to see anyone get hurt, and I'm kind of looking forward to seeing what Burnett can do in Pittsburgh.

This isn't the issue, as unless they were planning on trading Axford in order to free up salary for Greinke, they are mutually exclusive events. Axford is under Brewers control and will be with the Brewers no matter what, while Greinke is not. The question at hand is whether the potential savings and cost certaity of signing Axford to a guaranteed contract is worth the risk the Brewers will assume of Axford getting hurt of flaming out during the guaranteed contract. A secondary issue is whether buying out free agency years would be a net positive or net negative, as Axford will be in his mid-30's at that point and would be guaranteed an eight figure salary for the FA years. There is a lot of risk in that venture. Some would argue that paying him $10-15MM at his current age would be an overpay, so it would be hard to argue that the potential benefit of gaining a year of service time when he's four or five years older would be worth the added risk.

I like the idea of signing young, pre-arby guys to buy out a couple FA years, but Axford isn't young, and he plays a position with a high flame-out rate. We already have him through his prime, so I hope that if this happens it is only a three-year deal to gain a little cost saving and price certainty through some arby years.

Okay, I'm bored, so here's a shot at some possible trade partners (note that I don't follow prospects outside of the Brewers, so feel free to blast away): 1) Oft-injured Franklin Gutierrez is once again injured in Seattle. Ichiro is in RF and Carp in LF, so that blocks 28-year-old Casper Wells, who has some minor league accolades, but has only been able to gather 308 ABs in the majors. 2) The Mets aren't going anywhere, but they have Andres Torres in CF, so they may like to add some excitement to what is sure to be a lackluster season. I don't really know what they'd have to trade in return. They have Scott Hairston as a backup OF, who would fit the bill as a RH bat off the bench (career .740 OPS), but he alone wouldn't be enough for me to trade Morgan. 3) With Roger Bernadina as a starter, Washington could use a CF... too bad there is no chance Morgan's going there. 4) The Rangers look to be starting Craig Gentry in CF. With huge expectations on the season and Pujols in Los Angeles, they may be interested in an upgrade. I'm sure other options will open up as Spring Training games get rolling.

but I worry about the loss of guys like Hawkins, Kotsay and Counsell That's probably the biggest reason they kept Counsell around. From the "extend Greinke" thread, it sounds like he & Counsell are going scouting together, and I'm sure Counsell will spend a lot of his time around the players. Also, while I disagree with a lot of what Roenicke does, it seems that "clubhouse chemistry" is one of his strong points. This is a good story about Hawkins. I know players only generally show up in the news for bad things they do and the money they make, so it's always nice to hear stories like this. It's why I like heading to Spring Training... sitting in the stands, you get a chance to talk with family members and realize that these guys on the field are real people and most of them are "good guys."