monty57

I gotta think that DM and MA have talked about this and have a reserve of money set up to spend on improving our infield. I think it was bucksman who mentioned Melvin's earlier quote where he said he hadn't really thought of the possibility that K-Rod would accept arby. I saw this quote as well, and I think this really took the Brewers by surprise. Now they have to shift gears. I think this move costs us Ramirez, who looked like he was going to sign with Milwaukee, and we'll now go with rookies at 1B & 3B. Rollins' agent had already cancelled an appointment with Melvin, so he was probably out regardless. Furcal is probably now out (if he was ever a possibility), so we're probably going to see either Yuni or Alex Gonzalez at SS for around $2-3MM. Again, this is based on this rumor being true and on the Brewers not cutting K-Rod next spring. If we cut him, we could probably still sign Ramirez, and the $2.3MM would either mean we would have a little less for the bullpen, or we may not be able to make a mid-season salary acquisition. I guess we won't have to pay a signing bonus for that extra 1st rounder and Supplemental pick, so maybe that's where the $2.3MM would be deducted out of the budget :-)

Would anyone trade for him when they could have just signed him? Probably not likely, unless the Brewers ate salary or if a playoff hopeful team with money loses their closer early in Spring Training. Maybe we can send Greinke's friends to play basketball with Mariano Rivera. What we probably now have less than $10 million to spend on SS, 3B, and the remaining relievers? If you work backwards, we were probably looking at $10-12MM for Ramirez, $2-3MM for Yuni and around $5MM for Hawkins/Saito, or around $19MM or so (which is quite a bit more than MLBtraderumors estimated). If K-Rod eats up $14MM, we'll probably have around $5MM to get a SS and possibly some bullpen arms and will likely have to forget about Aramis Ramirez and go with Green at 3B and Yuni at SS. This move really just went a long way towards screwing our 2012 season. On a hopeful note, Alex Gonzalez only made $2.5MM in 2011, so there's a chance we could get him on a 1-year deal instead of Yuni, and we do have some young bullpen arms. With K-Rod and Axford along with starters who generally go 6+ innings, putting young, league minimum guys in the middle relief is a possibility. And then there's that little rule of cutting K-Rod and paying him around $2.33MM. I'm sure Melvin has had a long conversation with Attanasio about this option.

I would guess that he is trying to get as many offers as possible to see if he can get a good deal rather than accepting arby. I'm sure his agent's calling every team in need of a closer and saying "give us a good deal or we're playing in Milwaukee next year." If he is going to accept, there's no reason for him not to wait to the last minute. I just hope some team bites and offers him a multi-year deal as a closer soon.

I promise you Maysonet will not see Milwaukee next season, barring multiple injuries. The Brewers will bring in a starting SS & utility IF guy that can back up at SS via free agency or trade. Right, but the starting SS will probably be Yuni (at least that's what seems to be the going opinion for our "fallback") and the backup will be a league-minimum guy. It seems like we have the money for one $10MM or so salary this offseason, and Melvin seems focused on that being Rollins or Ramirez. If $14MM or so goes to K-Rod, we won't have money for anything decent at SS - starting or backup - and we'll probably have to go with Gamel & Green at 1B/3B. K-Rod accepting arbitration could end up being a blessing in disguise if Aramis & Jimmy Rollins & Furcal all prove to be over the hill in a few years. Another way to look at it is that if we keep K-Rod and make no improvements at SS & 3B and go with Gamel at 1B, we could be in a position to get several great players at the deadline in July by trading K-Rod, Greinke, Marcum, etc So we sort of win by losing. K-Rod accepting arby will hurt our chances of making the playoffs, so we can start working on our rebuilding efforts this year as opposed to next offseason. I'm sure the Brewers would try to spin it in a more positive light, but I think you're probably onto something. If K-Rod accepts arby, I can't see how we'd be more talented next year than we were this year. However, if the Cards lose Pujols we could still be in the playoff race come trade deadline, so it's not a given that we'd be able to trade off our looming free agents. Missing the playoffs and then losing Greinke, Marcum and Wolf for whatever the new CBA gives us in draft picks would really be a kick in the teeth.

Probably Gamel at 1B, Green at 3B and Yuni at SS with unknown league-minimum reclamation project RH to back-up 1B/3B and Maysonet as backup SS. I doubt we'd pay $3MM for Casey or more than league minimum for a utility guy when we're paying $14MM for our setup man. Other than that, yes. K-Rod could really bind us up financially by accepting arby. Maybe karma is catching up with us for laughing at the Mets when we gave up nothing to get K-Rod.

Money has to come from somewhere. If K-Rod accepts arby and we keep him, then we probably don't have money for Rollins or Ramirez, which means we'll probably have Gamel at 1B, Green at 3B and Yuni at SS. K-Rod is a good player, but in my opinion (and seemingly that of the Brewers and every other team in baseball), $13MM+ would be better spent elsewhere. As far as Loe, I think he has value, but $2.5MM for a team with a tight budget is questionable. It's not a sure thing he's gone, but Melvin will have to think about releasing him. If Parra is guaranteed 100% healthy, then the Brewers may hang onto him for $1.2MM. However, he's coming off a serious injury and was always a question mark even before being injured. There's a lot of risk in shelling out $1.2MM for him. Back to K-Rod, I worry that he could be a problem in the clubhouse next season. He griped a bit this season about his lack of save opportunities, but the Brewers were in a playoff race and he wanted to look like a good guy so he could get an offer this off-season. If he's back as a setup guy, he could be a real cancer next year when he sits and watches Axford rack up saves. After all, this is the guy who beat up his own father-in-law.

From a milwaukeebrewers.com article: Melvin dismissed the notion of a "primary target," but the Brewers' plan might hinge on whether talks progress with free-agent shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who would nicely fill a wide-open vacancy at shortstop if Melvin can talk agent Dan Lozano down from a reported five-year asking price. If Rollins does not make sense, the Brewers could shift their focus to a bat like third baseman Aramis Ramirez, whose agent, Paul Kinzer, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Tuesday he considers the Brewers a front-runner for Ramirez. Melvin declined to comment on Kinzer's assertion. "I'd like to not say too much when we're getting to the level we're at right now," Melvin said. If the Brewers land a bat like Ramirez, they would probably fill short with Yuniesky Betancourt, whose own agent, Jaime Torres, confirmed Tuesday that his client remains interested in Milwaukee. The "when we're getting to the level we're at right now" quote makes it sound like they've had some serious discussions, but the Brewers are waiting on the K-Rod arby decision and the Rollins situation before making an offer to Ramirez. The last sentence I referenced is the scary one... if we get Ramirez, we'll probably re-sign Yuni.

We're moving from a position where we had a lot of young, inexpensive starters to a position where we have more experienced, expensive starters. We now won't be able to spend as much on the bench, but shouldn't need "veteran presence" from the bench, so some of our prospects could fill a role for league minimum. I would've liked to have gotten Hariston back, but his late-season play in the national spotlight got him a 2-year deal. From Melvin & Roenicke's comments, it sounds like they wanted him back and had an offer on the table, but he took LA's offer without countering the Brewers. Can't be too disappointed with the team about this. As for McGehee, I don't think he'll be back if the reports are true that he'd get around $3MM. Our primary needs are SS & bullpen. We also need a backup SS and someone RH who can backup 1B/3B (if McGehee's gone), but I'd give up some talent in the backup roles if it means we can spend more (i.e. get a better player) for the more important roles. If the extra $5MM we'd spend on Hairston/McGehee over league minimum guys would give us enough cash to sign Rollins, then let's go with the league minimum bench - I'd rather have Rollins and players like Maysonet/Farris on the bench then Yuni, McGehee and Hairston.

Jon Broxton got $4M and no one knows if he'll be able to pitch next year. $6M for Thornton is not too much at all. Solid relief guys get paid well. I don't doubt that he's worth the 2/$12MM. I just have a hard time justifying trading away talent for a middle reliever who will make 2/$12MM, when we wouldn't pull the trigger on one of the few available good, everyday SS for 2/$10MM when we wouldn't have had to trade away talent. It seems that we have a very limited amount of money to dole out this offseason. The two areas of greatest need are SS and the bullpen. Personally I feel the starting SS is more important than a LH reliever, but I fear we'll "go cheap" on SS, and spend our limited money on relievers.

I would think Bell could have gotten more than $9MM/year. Just my opinion, but Bell seems to be a guy who would rather play in a certain area than go for the most money. Miami, like San Diego, is nice & warm, and is probably a "lower pressure" environment. Maybe that's more important than getting additional money to play for someone else (like a big spending team that plays in the cold northeast and is covered by a ruthless media). K-Rod wants to be a closer. He holds the all-time single season saves record, and probably feels that he could someday end up in the Hall of Fame. That won't happen if he spends too much time as a setup guy. The desire to close is probably more important to him than getting additional money, which is why he is unlikely to accept arbitration.

Nicely summed up reilly!

Does this make it more likely that KRod turns down arbitration? K-Rod wants to close and knows he won't close for the Brewers. The chance of him accepting arbitration is very small. Wow. These contracts doled to relievers affirm the fact that Ax is probably the best value in baseball The contracts given to proven closers could be a big reason why Melvin is rumored to be discussing an extension for Axford. If contracts continue to escalate, Axford could get huge paydays in arbitration, so Melvin may be looking for some price certainty. It's a lot of risk to take, but it's somewhat understandable.

Even if you believe they should trade one or both I don't see the urgency to do it during the off-season. I'm not advocating trading one of them, but the "urgency" to trade them this off-season would be that we may not be out of it mid-season, and if we don't extend them and don't trade them, we will lose 3/5 of our starting rotation next offseason with nothing but some comp picks in return. If this happens, it's hard to believe that we would be a contending team going into 2013. That would lead me to advocate trading some of our players and doing a quick rebuild. Thankfully, it sounds like the Brewers are talking with both Greinke and Marcum about extensions, so I don't think the scenario above will happen. I could see us trading one of our starters this offseason, but only if we get a really good return, and as RockCo said, they'd probably need to be MLB ready.

Prince and Boras will use the Brewers as leverege to get the biggest possible deal out of some other team, and we will put all of our possible alternatives on hold while Boras plays us. Prince won't sign until Pujols "sets the market," and meanwhile the available middle infielders are coming off the market. I guess we'll see what AAAA SS are left in a month or two when Prince finally signs with someone else. I don't even think that signing Prince would be a good idea unless the Brewers have suddenly come upon some significant annual revenue increases. Tell Prince it was nice knowing him, and get on with putting the roster together.

That would be the ideal situation, but Melvin seems to be hinting that we don't have much money to spend. I hope we can get someone like Furcal on a 1-2 year deal, but I don't know that <$4MM/year will land anything special at SS. I worry that putting a lot of money into the "8th inning guy" is going to mean we won't have an upgrade at SS. Therefore, we'll have no Fielder, a worse bullpen, a sideways move at SS and rookies starting at 1B & 3B. I like Green and Gamel, but my hopes in us taking the division again this year rested on us doing exactly what brewmann04 outlines in the above quote. If we don't do that, then we will probably go into this season with a less talented team than last year.

The problem with Loe is not so much his splits but his inconsistency. When he's on his sinker is one nasty pitch and good enough to get hitters out from either side. In fact he can look so dominant it can make a manager feel very good about using him late. But when he's off, well he's usually way off and you can't get him out of there quickly enough and no lead is safe. It's that inconsistency that ended up costing him his late inning role. This makes me wonder about the competency of our bullpen coach and bullpen catcher. They should have been able to see if Loe was on or not and let Roenicke know. The hitters could sure tell when Loe's sinker wasn't working. Loe is a valueable tool when used correctly. When not used correctly, he really hurt our team last year. Tabbing him as the "no questions asked 8th inning guy" is using him incorrectly. The Truth hit it on the head that we either need to cut Loe or bring in someone who can no doubt be a better option for Roenicke to use as the "8th inning guy." Plus, if Loe is due $2.8MM in arby, as MLBTR has suggested, then I don't think he's worth that to this year's Brewers (who can't pony up $5MM for a starting SS).

Looking at the remaining FA options at SS, I'm encouraged that both Reyes & Rollins are still out there. Certain bullpen holes are still there, but I'm really thinking it's worth the investment to get one of those two top SS's. Their "pedigree" in terms of track record for solid all-around production wastes anything the Brewers have in the system at SS above rookie ball. I would also love to have one of these guys. However, in the milwaukeebrewers.com article discussing the Brewers SS pursuit, it said that Melvin has spoken with Reyes, but admits he's probably out of the Brewers' price range, and he was going to speak with Rollins. He was then quoted saying something like, "you never know if he might be open to signing a one-year deal and testing the market again next year." Kind of sounded to me like Melvin is letting these guys know that the Brewers can be a fallback if the market isn't there for them this year.

Everything I've read had Barmes going for around $5MM per year, and that's right around what he allegedly got. If we're not willing/able to match 2 years / $11MM for the best available option at SS from the "B" class, then I'm starting to get a little worried about our 2012 SS situation. It's possible Barmes wanted to go to Pitt to be with his old coach, and I hope that's the case, otherwise I don't know what our solution will be for under $5MM... Maysonet anyone? I will now be pretty upset if Melvin goes out and signs an "8th inning guy" for $4-5MM and we get stuck with a worthless SS.

From some recent Melvin comments, I don't think we have too much money to throw around. I don't know what Attanasio's Fielder talk was about. I think it's pretty much a given Gamel's our 1B and Green should be our 3B, maybe with someone like Hairston getting some starts. We'll sign someone like Barmes or Furcal and focus the rest of our cash on the bullpen.

I'd probably prefer two years, but could understand if they went three. Any possible in-house replacements at SS are in the low minors, so we may need someone for three years. However, Barmes will be 33 in March, so he's likely to continue to decline over the contract. Two years with a team option for a third year would probably be best. I can't agree that he's worse offensively than Yuni. He's got a career line of .252/.302/.401/.703. In 2011 he hit .244/.312/.386/.698. Yuni's career line is .268/.292/.391/.683 for his career and .252/.271/..381/.652 in 2011. Yuni gets a few more hits, but Barmes walks more. Other than that, they're similar offensively, but Barmes plays better defense. Barmes is far from perfect, but he should be a significant upgrade from last year and would be a good fix for our biggest hole this offseason. Get this done quick and then Melvin can focus on the bullpen.

Both are the last two ranked Type B free agents on the list I saw. Good. I think they're the most likely candidates to fill SS for us. Nice to know we wouldn't have to give up a pick.

I'd say offering Prince arby is 100% certain. Offering K-Rod is 80%+ certain, as he's going to leave so that he can close. Offering Yuni is <20% likely, as he would end up with more money than he would have made if they just excercised his option. Offering Saito is 100% not going to happen due to contractual obligations. Therefore, I see best case as two first rounders and 2 supplemental to go along with the Brewers' own draft picks. I'd add best case would also include the Brewers re-signing Saito. I think there's a good shot one of those two picks could end up being a 2nd rounder. I also think the Brewers could sign a FA where they lose a first rounder. What are Barmes and Furcal ranked, as I think they're both possibilities for the Brewers next year?

I suspect it will still matter at least on a regional level, for local matchups. Twins/Brewers, Yankees/Mets, Orioles/Nats, White sox/Cubs, those sorts of games will still bring the interleague angle to media coverage.You'll have local coverage of Cubs/White Sox, Yankees/Mets, etc, but I doubt you'll see much fanfare when the Brewers play the Twins or in most of the non-intercity rivalries. Plus, you won't see the national coverage of "...it's that time again," which inevitably leads to "I hate interleague because..." Interleague baseball is much more accepted than it was a decade ago, so they can now take this step. If MLB can get interleague to be the norm, than it will be able to take further steps. Making people forget that they have any problem with it helps. You can spur on getting people to forget about it if you can halt the National Griping Week which has annually begun shortly prior to interleague play each year. You'll see some stories the first year about what a travesty it is that there is an interleague game on Opening Day, but after the first year, Opening Day will be a far bigger story than who is playing who on Opening Day. I say all of this as a positive for interleague play. MLB wants it, and I think overall it makes baseball better for the teams and fans, so they are marketing it in a long-term way so that they can get more interleague play without outraging fans.

There is no need to lock up a reliever unless it is for WELL below market value. I pretty much agree. The Brewers have Axford under team control for his prime years. The benefits of signing him to a long term deal are cost certainty and getting an extra couple of years of service. Since he'll be 29 on April 1, and plays a position known for rapid decline, I don't know that locking up some years in his mid-30's is very important. Therefore, I see is as weighing the value of cost certainty + some potential savings vs the negative of the risk added to the team in locking themselves into a guaranteed long-term contract. In this case, I think the risks probably outweigh the rewards for the Brewers. I really like that they're looking into extending both Greinke and Marcum. Both are players who seem to fit well in Milwaukee - Marcum is from the Midwest and Greinke may be better suited to a small market media and fanbase. Greinke is a top-of-the-rotation guy, and Marcum could come cheaper due to his fall off at the end of the season. If we could somehow extend both of these guys, we could have a solid core team (offense and pitching) for years, and let our prospects work there way into the rotation when they're ready and should give us a position of strength to trade from in the coming years.

But there would rarely be more than one series going on at once. This will eventually lead to interleague play being kind of forgotten about by the media/fans (it's just something that goes on throughout the year as opposed to being a big story when it happens all at once every year), which can lead to expanded interleague play in the future if that is what the MLB bosses want.