monty57

He's always been someone who can get on base, and realizes that he's best used in a platoon role. I think we're going to be in the running for the playoffs next year, and trading Nyjer would likely be a step backwards. We could very well already have two rookies starting next season, and after next year, Gomez will be gone and Schafer will probably be ready to step in to an everyday role, so I'd wait until then to consider trading Morgan.

Given the whirldwind we saw last offseason, it's entirely possible that anyone gets traded this offseason. However, given the fact that it was starting pitching woes which cost us two lost seasons in 2009 & 2010, I don't think Melvin will trade a SP unless he is pretty certain that several of the minor leaguers are ready to play at the MLB level. As several other posters have mentioned, we got lucky that we didn't miss many starts due to injury. I like having some MLB-ready arms at AAA in 2012, ready to fill in for injuries and step into a full-time role in 2013. As in most cases, if the right deal is there, do it. But I wouldn't actively shop any of our SP this offseason.

Come on people this is Doug Melvin we're talking about. He probably doesn't see Yuni B as a problem. I think he realized all along that Yuni was a problem, but he got stuck with him in the Greinke trade and didn't have money or options to do anything about it last offseason. Then he probably inquired about trades at the deadline, to be told that Reyes and Barmes weren't going anywhere, and the Dodgers were only trading one of Furcal and Carroll, and we were outbid for Furcal's services. Melvin snagged Hairston, only to have Weeks go down. By the time Weeks was back, McGehee was at least as bad as Yuni (I would've went with Green, but there was no way Roenicke was going to do that), so Hairston took over 3B instead of SS. Melvin did put together the best Brewers team in three decades, and maybe the best ever. I don't expect huge moves this offseason, as most of the team is in place, but I also don't expect him to overlook the few holes we have which can't be easily filled in-house.

I was going off the article. Using brewerfan's salary page, we've got: 1B: Gamel $414k 2B: Weeks $10MM SS: ? 3B: Green $414k C: Lucroy $424k LF: Braun $6MM CF: Morgan $1.9MM (using MLBTR's guess) CF: Gomez $1.8MM (using MLBTR's guess) RF: Hart $9MM #5OF: Kotsay-type $800k Utility: Hairston $1.4MM (Counsell's salary) McGehee: $2MM (if he gets more than this, cut him) Kottaras: $800k SP: Gallardo $5.5MM SP: Greinke $13.5MM SP: Marcum $6.8MM (using MLBTR's guess) SP: Wolf $9.5MM SP: Narveson $441k LR: Estrada (or other in-house option) $414k MR: Kintzler (or other in-house option) $414k MR: Braddock (or other in-house option) $414k MR: de La Cruz (or other in-house option) $414k SU: veteran signee $4MM (Hawkins contract) SU: Saito ? $1.75MM CL: Axford $442k That gets us to about $78.5 without including K-Rod and Yuni's buyouts, which I think are $6MM, so around $85MM without a SS. I don't know how Braun's pro-rated signing bonus works, and while the team certainly keeps a "fund" for injuries/callups, I don't know what of that is considered on the starting payroll figures. Of course, this also assumes we'll start Gamel & Green and go with some in-house bullpen options, and as this shows, we may not be able to afford not to starts these two next year. Barmes made $3.925MM this year, so I think he's probably a possibility for the Brewers to pursue, and he actually might not cost any more than it would cost us to exercise Yuni's option. I'm sure Melvin will do something that will throw all of us for a loop, but I'd be happy if he signed Barmes, Saito, Hairston and another bullpen arm to go along with his annual veteran OF signing. Other than that, we should be good to go.

I was all for McGehee staying on as part of a Gamel/Green/McGehee 1B/3B troika until I read the MLBTradeRumors article linked in another thread, where the author assumed McGehee would make $3.1MM in year 1 arby. As bad as he was this season, if the author was close to correct, I'd set Casey free. At $1MM or so, hold onto him and hope for a rebound. At $3.1MM, there are better ways to spend money. Hairston could probably be had for that, and I'd sure rather have JHJ than McGehee.

Spend less money on a guy like Barmes, don't panic, & have money left to float at Greinke. He's the guy you want for a big-money extension. Greinke could be the biggest beneficiary of the new TV deal :-)

Since the Brewers players weren't showing up the other team, I guess that would be up for debate. Opposing pitchers may feel that the other team making a big deal out of every hit would be "showing up the other team." The Diamondbacks started doing a move of their own, making the "snake move" directly at the Brewers, so they probably felt the Brewers were "showing them up." If I were on a team facing the Brewers, I'd probably feel some extra joy from beating them simply because of these antics. While these things don't really bother me, when I see the Brewers antics, I always am reminded of Barry Sanders' quote from his father regarding dancing in the endzone: "Act like you've been there before."

In brief, it says the Brewers have $58.58MM locked into contracts, and estimates McGehee ($3.1MM - 1st year arby), Morgan ($1.9MM - 1st year arby), Gomez ($1.8MM - 3rd year arby), Marcum ($6.8MM - 3rd year arby), Loe ($2.8MM - 2nd year arby) for a total of $16.4MM, and a total team payroll of $75MM, leaving them at roughly $9MM to spend. Personally, there is no way I'd pay McGehee $3.1MM, and don't think he'll get it in arby after this season. The article does say they'd guess the Brewers will trade him. Loe is also not worth that, so assuming they're correct with Morgan, Gomez and Marcum, that would put us around $69MM if we don't keep McGehee, Loe, Parra, Stetter, or Wilson. Around $70MM if we keep Kottaras. If we use Green at 3B and Gamel at 1B, we're around $71MM with 1B, 2B, 3B, C, LF, RF, CF, all 5 SP and some bullpen arms signed. If we assumed an $85MM payroll, we would have $14MM to cover SS and the bullpen. We had a bump from the playoffs this year, and apparently will be gaining around $20MM/year from the new TV deal in 2013, so I think $85MM could be low, especially since Attanasio said the Brewers payroll this year (after Hairston and K-Rod) was around $95MM. Melvin will certainly sign a veteran or two for the bullpen, but I would be very surprised if we don't go after a big upgrade at SS. Reyes may be priced out of our range (and may not be worth what he'll get), but I could see us looking in the $10MM range if necessary to fill SS. We should definitely be able to get into the bidding for a Barmes or Furcal as a FA, or we could make a trade with a team trying to shed some salary this offseason.

•The big question is do you 'trust' rookies at 3B and 1B. I say, what the hell. They have nothing left to prove at AAA. You either need to give them a chance or get rid of them. Give 'em the job now and know they'll have some struggles, but also that they will have a chance to thrive. And if they don't? You have a guy like Hairston who can play some at 3B. As well as McGehee (if you keep him) or whomever you sign to platoon with Gamel. But more importantly, your payroll isn't that high - around $80 million. You have the financial flexibility to add a player like K-Rod if needed. So if Gamel is flopping after two months, and we decide he'll never figure it out, you can snag a decent player for cheap (like with K-Rod) to replace him. There's a huge upside to Gamel and/or Green succeeding. Cheap talent putting up decent numbers is gold for a team like Milwaukee. In my opinion, this is really the key to Milwaukee's mid-to-long-term future. Next year, they'd be fine with picking up a veteran RF/1B, and allowing Hairston to play 3B. However, a team like the Brewers absolutely needs to have pre-arby guys playing a significant role on the team if they want any kind of sustainable success. Having some guys making $450k (or whatever minimum is these days) is what allows us to sign guys like Braun, Yo, etc to long-term deals. If we don't let Green, Gamel, and other youngsters get their shot, we will need to trade guys like Weeks, Yo and Braun when we get in the "money glut" in a few years. If Green and Gamel start for us next year, then maybe Peralta/Fiers, Gindl/Schafer start for us in 2013, and that trend continues of 1-2 rookies working there way in each year, we can continue to be successful for a long time. We don't need these rookies to be "the next Braun," as we have Braun locked up. We just need them to be Major League players. Some will succeed, and some will not, but with a limited payroll, we need to allow some rookies to play.

RE Betancourt: SS is one of the few areas we can hope to upgrade next year to make up for the pain we'll feel in losing Fielder. We have in-house options in Green & Gamel (along with McGehee) to cover 1B/3B. We'll have our LF, 2B, CF, RF, C & all SP back. We probably aren't going to upgrade our bullpen from 2011 to 2012 (at best we can hope for a lateral move). Therefore, we need to upgrade SS. I'm hoping for a major upgrade, but at the very least, we need someone who plays great defense (which will make our already good pitching staff even better), and I'd like someone who can get on base as a leadoff hitter so that Hart, Braun Weeks can man the 3-4-5 holes.

Just to be absolutely clear Russ, I was not pointing at "Beast Mode" as to why the Brewers lost this series. It just got plain tired after a while.I understand you aren't trying to blame this series loss on Sully. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gifObviously the reason we lost was that no one came up with some type of Mike Wisowski eyeball move. Maybe they could've rolled instead of sliding, or they could've implemented Mike's patented front-flip-land-on-crotch move that got all the kids laughing. Actually, if Yuni did that move a few times, it may have had a positive effect on the team.

No it doesn't. Maybe one team a year has that kind of luck with their starters. Usually no team uses less than 7-8 pitchers to start games.However, Greinke was out for a month and a half, and the shuffling of our rotation to make sure Estrada got as few starts as possible probably had something to due with some underperformance in the first half and Marcum running into a brick wall with innings come playoff time. Also, we didn't have anyone as AAA insurance this season, so we were very lucky we weren't hit with more injuries. Next year, we should have some Major-League-ready arms in AAA, allowing for us to have some injuries without imploding. There's certainly a lot of negativity in this thread, which is probably understandable after this hearbreaking series. We will still be a good team next year with most of our NL Central Champs returning. The Cards will probably lose Pujols, knocking them down a peg. The Cubs will probably sign one of Fielder or Pujols, but they aren't good eonough to contend even with the added bat. Who knows what Reds and Pirates teams will show up, and the Astros will either be in the AL or in the basement of the NL Central. I'm bummed about losing this series, but as time heals the wounds, we'll look back on this year as a good memory, and hopefully we'll be able to add to those good memories in the near future.

Agree with Monty and Ennder, didn't see your guys post while I was writing my last one. However I'd look at Rollins over Reyes due to the fact that we mid as well sign Fielder for the money we'd have to give Jose. I have heard 7 years 140 to 150 million for him. Rollins is has enouhg in the tank to last a 3-4 year deal and provide great value at a much better cost. Not going to lie though, our line-up with Reyes would look VERY nice. Yeah, Reyes will probably get a big payday based on his huge contract year play. He might be a pipe-dream, but I'd like to see us shoot for a good SS, whether through FA or trade. Furcal, Reyes and Rollins are the top three FA candidates, and I'd be happy to have any of them, as they'd greatly imporve our defense and allow us to have a true leadoff hitter, with Hart and Weeks in the middle of the lineup with Braun. If we settle for Betancourt, we will have taken a huge step backwards from 2011 to 2012.

I don't think you'll see a major shake-up. We're coming off a NLCS run, and have most of the starters, including the entire starting rotation, returning. Weeks, Hart and Braun are the nucleus to build the lineup around. Hart playing 1B is an interesting twist, and gets some support in Jordan Schelling's article on the Brewers' site. If Hart is in RF, I think Gamel's at 1B. If Hart moves to 1B, it would be interesting to see if they'd go with Gamel, Schafer or Gindl. I think they'll stick with the Morgan/Gomez platoon one more year. I hope Taylor Green is handed 3B from the get-go, but I'm fine with keeping Casey around. He can play corner IF and be a RH bat off the bench for not too much money (1st year arby). I would also like to keep Hairston, but his play in the playoff (at least at the plate) will probably increase his value around the league. I don't know that he'd come back in a utility role, and I don't want to hand him a starting job when we've got Weeks at 2B and Green playing for league minimum at 3B. If Hairston signs for a reasonable price and is willing to be the RH part of a 3B platoon / utility player, then I'd be happy seeing him signed. It's possible that we shop one of our starting pitchers, but only if Melvin feels one of the prospects is ready to take over a starting role for a playoff caliber team, and he feels we have enough depth at AAA to cover any injuries. I can't see any way they'd go into the season with Narveson/Estrada as their 4/5 combo. Marcum is still a good pitcher... he just hit a wall or had some injury we weren't told about. I'd be thrilled if they could use this bad stretch to sign him to a 2-3 year deal at a discount. I'd guess we'll see the same rotation with guys like Peralta waiting in the wings as AAA insurance when someone gets hurt. Our bullpen will need a facelift, but I expect Melvin to try to retain at least one of Hawkins/Saito. If not, he will certainly sign a FA setup guy. Then, we hope Kintzler (and Parra?) can get healthy and Braddock gets his issues under control. The big move, the one which can keep us as good as this year's team, is going to be what we do at SS. I'd like to see us take a shot at a top-tier SS. Pulling Furcal from St Louis would be great, or making a run at Reyes would be nice. Getting a SS who can play defense is priority #1. Getting one who can also get on base is an added bonus. If we could get a Furcal/Reyes type who could be our leadoff batter, then Hart, Braun, Weeks (in some order) as 3-4-5 looks pretty good with. I kind of like the following: SS - Reyes or Furcal (SH) CF - Morgan / Gomez (platoon) 2B - Weeks (RH) LF - Braun (RH) RF - Hart (RH) 1B - Gamel (LH) C - Lucroy (RH) 3B - Green (LH) Bench - Hairston (RH utility), McGehee (RH 1B/3B), Morgan/Gomez, veteran LH OF, backup C Prince will be missed, but the lineup above would certainly have more balance than we had this year. Mixed with the same starting pitching with better defense behind them and more depth at AAA, we could be better in 2012 than in 2011.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me seven times and I might finally wake up and realize I'm being a fool.

The Red Sox have also traded a ton of their farm system away to get veteran players over the years. So throw in Hanley Ramirez, etc on the Sox side of the equation. Until this year the Brewers haven't done that as trading cost controlled players isn't generally something a small market team does. Meanwhile, the Sox make a trade for an elite player with considerable frequency. The fact that teams operate on an uneven "playing field" is certainly a factor in rating a GM. Epstein's performance history as a GM for a big market team and the fact that he is going to another big market team should bode in his favor if trying to predict whether he will be able to succeed in Chicago. If he were going to a small market, you'd have to consider the variable of whether or not he'd be able to adapt to managing within a limited budget.

The playoffs might not be "magic," but they're certainly different. During the season, you will be able to get a large sample set, so individual game performance fluctuations will average out, and the better player will have better numbers at the end of the year most of the time. In a win-or-go-home short series, that's not necessarily the case. In any one game, any one player can outperform any other player. Of course, you should always start with the premise of putting the most talent on the field, so in general sticking with what got you there (as Flood Pants noted) would be the best starting point. However, that's based on the premise that we've "optimized our roster" this season, which isn't necessarily the case (see Hairston vs McGehee). Also, there can be other variables in effect. For instance, a somewhat minor issue which wouldn't effect decisions during the season may elicit more concern in the playoffs. Maybe Weeks is still hurt enough that it's effecting his game. Maybe nerves are effecting some players. Maybe Marcum has "hit a wall" with innings pitched. These could be things the managerial staff has access to which we will never know. Also, all other factors staying the same, it may make some sense in a win-or-die situation to go with the variable with the least fluctuation, which is probably defense. In that case, it was a terrible decision to put Kotsay in CF, when the offensive difference among Kotsay, Gomez and Morgan was a toss-up, but the defensive side was a no-brianer that Kotsay was the worst option. In valuing starting Gomez/Morgan vs. Morgan/Hart or Gomez/Hart, you'd have to weigh the probability of each player helping the team offensivly and the probability of each player hurting the team defensively in one game... not an easy task. Over a season, it's no doubt that Hart should play nearly every day. Without any knowledge of the players' physical and mental states, it's very hard for an outside observer to make an informed decision. Personally, it wouldn't bother me if Roenicke posted the roster PEM listed in post #1. At least I could understand the reasoning, which I can't say about last night's "go by the gut" roster.

When it comes to baseball drafts, i always wonder how much credit should go to the GM be it Theo, Melvin, or whoever? They obviously don't have the time to go scouting hundreds and hundreds of kids scattered across the country. I guess i can see GM's having some input on first round picks, but even that is questionable that a GM would over-rule a scouting director who has spent vastly more time evaluating the available talent. I can't fathom a baseball GM deciding which kids to pick in the 4th-5th-8th-12th-17th-25th rounds etc. They simply don't have the time. So should we just mainly credit or downgrade a GM for the structure/people they have in place for drafting players? Or actually credit/bash them for individual selections which turned out great or bad even though they very likely just let their scouting director make the picks? Part of a GM's job is hiring the people who make the decisions, so being able to evalutate the evaluators is a necessary skill-set of a good GM. To put it as mathematically as I can, let's look at it this way: There are multiple goals of a baseball team, but for simplicity, we'll say the ultimate goal is "x." There are a lot of variables a GM has to juggle. Does it really matter if the GM reaches "x" by going 2y+3z+t, vs going 3q?w? I'm reading a lot of worry over the individual aspects of GMing, and individual examples of trades, drafts, etc. Really, the broad picture is far more important than any individual examples. In other words, someone could be the best in the business at one aspect (hiring personnel, making trades, scouting, development, etc), but still be a poor GM. A good GM (like any good business owner/CEO) has to be adept at handling all aspects of the job, and if they are weak in an area, they have to recognize that and bring in personnel who complement them well. If the ultimate goal is "reaching x," then I'd say Epstein did a good job, as the Red Sox during his tenure came very close to "x." They won two titles, were perennial contenders, have a tremendous record of selling out the stadium, have a rabid fan base, seem to have a great revenue stream/be very profitable, and for all the hullabaloo about how poor the 2011 team was, if they don't make one roster move this offseason, they would probably go into next year as one of the favorites to win the World Series.

It should be noted that the epic failure season the Boston Globe, ESPN, etc are talking about ended with 90-wins and missing out on the playoffs because of an extra-inning HR by Evan Longoria. He certainly did better than other $100MM+ teams like the Angels (86-76), White Sox (79-83), Cubs (71-91), Mets (77-85), Giants (86-76), Twins (63-99), and Dodgers (82-79). If a GM's "bad year" is 90 wins, then I'd say he's had a pretty good tenure. I think Boston's season is only a story because ESPN thinks baseball consists of two teams (Sawx and Yankees), so if one of them doesn't make the playoffs the world is coming to an end. The Cubs offered Theo 5 years / $20MM (good money for a GM), so he took it. He will probably be worth it for the Cubs, as he is a good GM, and I think the GM is the most important and most overlooked person in sports. I don't like the Red Sox (or the Yankees), but I have to give Epstein credit for what he's done. Any GM's individual moves can be picked apart (see all the attacks on Melvin on this board), but in the end you look at the net result. Epstein netted two WS Championships for a team who was considered "cursed" before his arrival.

The Cubs' payroll in 2012 could wind up being roughly $40-50M less than 2011. What they choose to do right away will be very important long-term, imo. Sure, they can afford to go out & bid on Fielder, Pujols, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, etc. But I think they'd be better served to build around Castro & just start over. As of today, there are some interesting targets in the FA class for 2013, as well... and of course there always seem to be high-priced 'proven' players available in whatever FA season. Plus, if the Cubs focus on rebuilding their farm system, they're also in the position the Red Sox were/are -- able to trade prospects to take on big-money players, like Adrian Gonzalez, whose original or current clubs can no longer afford. Money allows the big market teams to rebuild differently than a small market team. The Cubs could sign a young, proven player like Prince to a longer-term deal without giving up any prospects. Prince would put up his normal, MVP-caliber numbers, giving the fans something to cheer about while the team "rebuilds." This helps keep fans in the seats and viewers watching on TV, helping revenue streams remain high. Meanwhile, they can build the system through the draft and trades, and over the years they will have money to pick up some "salary dumps" without giving up many prospects. Sure, they have some bad contracts, but they'll probably lose Ramierez this off-season, Zambrano next year, and Soriano in a few seasons. If they play their cards right, they could be good in a few years, and at least be an entertaining team to watch as they put the pieces together. That in itself has historically been enough for fans to take a day off work to spend the afternoon in the sunny ballpark drinking a beer. Theo is better than most at "playing the cards right," so I think the future NL Central titles just got a little tougher to win.

Apparently, Epstein just signed a 5 year deal with the Cubs - saw on CNBC

Yes. I believe he grounded out to 2nd in Game 4. Unequivical proof that all young players will freak out in any high pressure situation :-)

Roenicke certainly has some habits I disagree with, but second-guessing the manager is always part of baseball. I'm happy where we are, and am going to enjoy the playoffs without worrying too much about managerial decisions. My biggest concern going forward should be answered prior to next season. I think Roenicke doesn't like young players. I don't have any hard-and-fast proof, but it's my impression. If that is truly the case, then he's not a good choice as a long-term manager for a mid-market team like the Brewers who have to be built around home-grown talent. What we do with Gamel & Green should either ease my concerns or increase my worries for the future. I'm going to do my best to put off any more worries over Roenicke until after the World Series.

Thanks for the post RockCo. I listened to WTMJ on the ride home from last night's game, and all the callers seemed to think the world was ending. We're tied 1-1 in the series. We won 96 games this season. We have a pretty good team. St Louis is also a pretty good team, or else they wouldn't be here. Either team could win the series, but I'm certainly not ready to give up because of one blowout loss. Pujols is a great player, and he's the one who beat us last night. That could just as easily be Fielder or Braun going 4-for-5 tomorrow against Carpenter.

Because Epstein's the smartest man in the world, so he couldn't possibly do anything wrong. Over-reaction is common in sports, and the same manager will be seen as wonderful when the team wins and terrible when the team loses. Heck, Roenicke is in line to get Manager of the Year, because somehow he was responsible for his pitching staff remaining relatively injury-free and throwing a 2-something ERA in the second half of the year. Francona probably doesn't deserve to be fired, but the fans want a head on the chopping block, and ultimately the fans pay the bills. If the Sawx were to miss the playoffs next year, even uber-mind Epstein should probably start worrying about his job.