monty57

If Attanasio is not just blowing smoke, and they actually do sign Fielder: C Lucroy 1B Fielder 2B Weeks SS Acquired in trade of Hart 3B Green LF Braun CF Morgan/Gomez RF Gamel Bench: Hairston (utility IF/OF), Kottaras ©, Veteran RH corner OF, McGehee (unless they think he'll get too much in arby, then I'd get a "defensive specialist" utility IF), Morgan/Gomez SP Gallardo SP Greinke SP Marcum SP Wolf SP Narveson Bullpen: Axford, Saito, Hawkins, de la Cruz, Braddock, Kintzler, Estrada If we do not sign Fielder, but still have the money available I would sign Reyes at SS, keep Hart in RF and Gamel at 1B

which I'd settle for if, as DHonks noted, Hart would still lose the extra 20 pounds of bulk he's put on b/c his offensive game has NOT improved since he's done so, but his defense & especially his speed have definitely worsened. Hart OPS 2008: .759 2009: .753 lot of offseason discussion about Hart being done. Hart mentions new training regimen and adding weight, plus something about his father being harder on him than any fan could ever be 2010: .865 2011: .866 Whether it's the extra muscle, or simply his ability to lay off the low-and-away slider, he's certainly increased his offensive production. FWIW, major league equivalents put Mat Gamel's 2011 at ... It's actually .273/.324/.450. Once again, not really close to Ethier, even if it is a decent line with above average defense. Mat Gamel hit for a .310/.372/.540/.912 line last year at Nashville and .309/.387/.511/.898 line as Nashville in 2010. What the heck does a player have to do for an MLE to show that they'd be a good pro hitter?

It will be interesting to see what they're going to do if they indeed are interested in signing Fielder. They could trade another high priced player (SP or Hart), or they could use the extra money from the playoffs this year to increase 2012 payroll, and then the new TV deal will allow for increased payroll in 2013 & beyond. It will also be interesting to see if they aren't able to land Fielder if they will use that money elsewhere. With Sabathia, they said he was a special case, and they wouldn't increase the payroll for anyone else. Will that be the case with Fielder, or would they use the money on someone like Reyes if they can't sign Fielder? It would be nice if we could expand payroll to hold onto Fielder, keep Hart & the starting rotation and improve SS, but that would seem to be a big stretch. Maybe they could sign Fielder, trade Hart for a decent SS, and let Gamel/Gindl/Schafer play RF. If we don't have Fielder, we need Hart's bat in the lineup. With Fielder and a decent SS/3B, and with Gamel's bat in RF, hart could be expendable... especially if he could net a quality SS. If they sign Fielder and don't trade Hart, then there's really nothing they could do with Gamel, so I think a trade of Hart would be more likely than a trade of a SP, but who knows.

It's at this time of the year that I'm glad there are people on this site who fullly understand all the quirky rules of baseball roster management :-)

I agree RockCo. I wouldn't sign Fukudome unless we could get him cheap as our backup corner OF. I doubt we'd be able to do that, so I'd pass. Unless the return was monumental, there's no way I'd trade Hart so that I could sign Fukudome to play RF, as Hart is the better player, and we'll need Hart's bat in the lineup next year. As I mentioned, ideally we could get a high-OBP SS to bat 1 or 2 in the order next year. I don't know if that player exists outside of Reyes, but I hope Melvin can find someone to fill that role.

I wholeheartedly agree that Prince will be missed. He is one of the best hitters in baseball. I'm riding on the ray of hope that because we had such bad overall offense and defense at SS & 3B we will be able to improve on those positions to help ease the step back we will take from moving from Fielder to Gamel (or anyone else who could try to fill Prince's shoes). One other nice thing (if we go with Gamel & Green) is that we will finally have some LH/RH balance in the starting lineup on a regular basis. That may not match the stress Braun/Fielder gave opposing pitchers, but it is something we've missed for quite a while. Plus, if we can get a good leadoff guy to play SS, it would allow Weeks, Braun and Hart to bat 3-4-5, which is a decent middle of the order (all have 30+ HR potential) which could knock in a lot of runs if Morgan and the SS could get on base on a regular basis in front of them.

Yeah, depending on how the SS position plays out this offseason, Maysonet could sneak in as the defensive utility guy, especially if we land a durable everyday SS. If we got a guy like Jamey Carroll, we'd probably want to get a better backup. Either way, Maysonet is much needed depth for an organization that is very thin on talent at the SS position. No surprise on Wilson. I just wonder if the team will give him a share of the playoff money. I feel bad about DiFelice just because he seemed to have promise a few years back. Too bad he couldn't have given us a few good years in the 'pen.

I agree with you that the calls for OBP are probably overdone at times, but guys with both "OBP skills" and power get big contracts and are hard to find. We're losing one of the best OBP/power guys in the league this offseason when someone offers Prince a mammoth contract. Sometime teams without a Yankee-caliber payroll have to settle with lesser players, and if a player only had one skill, OBP would be a decent one to have. Going into next season, we have Weeks, Braun and Hart who would make up a decent 3-4-5 next year, with a good OBP guy in Morgan batting 1 or 2. I'd like to see us add another OBP guy to bat 1 or 2. That said, I certainly wouldn't offer Fukudome 3 years / $24MM. First, that would take a better player (Hart) off the team. Second, he's not worth it. I'd rather the other "OBP guy" be a shortstop. Otherwise, we're going to have to stick with Hart or Weeks at #1, and hope Gamel or Green can hit well enough to man the #5 hole, or I guess we could move Lucroy to #2.

I doubt a team would give us good value for a starting pitcher while good SPs like Oswalt are still out there on the market. If we were going to trade a SP, it would seem like the time to do it would be after the big FAs had signed and supply was off the market. I guess the easy way to say this is... why would a team give up talent for one year of Marcum or Wolf when they could simply sign Oswalt on the FA market? If we were to go after Oswalt, I'd say we'd need to sign him and then trade away Marcum, Wolf or Greinke. If we traded Marcum, we would probably put ourselves in a position that we wouldn't have enough money to afford the SS/bullpen help we need, so we would probably need to trade Greinke or Wolf. If we trade Greinke, then we really haven't done anything to bolster the 2012 team, but we will have taken risk on an older player for extended years, so I think we'd need to look at trading Wolf. If we could sign Oswalt for somewhere around what we're paying Wolf, and then trade Wolf for something of value (MLB SS or some good prospects), then that could work out really well. I doubt it will happen, but it's an interesting thought.

so looking at that, thats why i think the brewers should go reyes way, mainly because the gap between him and the alternative is much bigger than between prince and the alternative. In Economics, we'd call that excess marginal return, and I think that's the best way to look at it. I know there's risk in playing Gamel and Green, but there's risk in everything. I believe they will be able to be productive MLB players. A combo of Gamel/Green/McGehee/Hairston should provide decent production out of the corner IF spots. Fielder will be a big loss, but it should be pretty easy to outperform McGehee's 2011 numbers. Combined numbers of McGehee, Yuni and Fielder average out to a .259 avg / .327 OBP / .433 SLG / .759 OPS with horrible defense. Giving 1,184 PAs to players as bad as Yuni and McGehee essentially negated the MVP-caliber performance Fielder posted. To relate 2012 vs 2011, the questions would be whether a combination of Gamel, Green and a new SS could average out to those numbers, how much added value we would receive by having much better defense, and whether the offense is better with one Hall of Famer and two black holes, or with three good players. I think they could match, and probably beat those numbers. If Green & Gamel can average an .800 OPS (they were at .997 and .912 in AAA this year), then the SS would only need to average a .677 OPS to average out to the combined .759 OPS we got this year. Barmes is a career .703 OPS SS while Reyes is a career .782 OPS SS. I think the defense would be a huge upgrade, and would allow our pitching staff to be even better. Stevo mentioned that we were 6th in ERA, but 3rd in xFIP, so a good (or better) defense should do wonders for our staff. I think total runs may be similar with Fielder and the black holes, but I think we would be more consistant with three good players, as we wouldn't be as dependant on Fielder's hot and cold streaks. With good pitching and improved defense, I'd rather have a more consistant offense. Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team. I don't believe that simply losing Fielder, Yuni and McGehee and replacing them with Gamel, Green and a FA SS (like Barmes) with everything else remaining the same would cost us 14 wins (from 96 wins to a .500 team). Anything can happen over a 162-game season, but on paper I believe that adding two league minimum players in Green and Gamel should allow us to spend money to upgrade SS and do our best to maintain our bullpen, leading us to another playoff-capable team in 2012.

He's never going to be confused with Andrew McCutchen but we don't currently have anyone in the system that profiles as regular all-stars like we did when Fielder, Weeks, and Braun were coming up. The current backbone of the team includes a lot of veterans who are starting to get expensive (Braun, Weeks, Hart, McGehee) and three starting pitchers who will be free agents after next season. Somewhere along the line you're going to develop your own guys so you can save money. And while Schafer may not profile to be a major league all-star, he is currently one of the best positional prospects we have. We're in the "next stage" of our long-term building process. Now we've got some good guys locked up and need to fill in young guys around them, hopefully finding some gems we want to lock up along the way. I think we'll see a different looking Brewers team going forward, which will be built more around pitching, but yes, we will need some position players to come up through the system. Next year, we should see Gamel and Green play significant roles. Then, we'll see Schafer and maybe Gindl or one of our other RF prospects. If we see those four, along with Lucroy and the locked up Weeks and Braun, we will pretty much have a home-grown lineup. We just need to find a SS somewhere.

I guess I'd rather skimp on a 4th starter than 2-3 spots in the starting lineup/bullpen. We already have our 2B, LF, RF, CF, C locked up, and have in-house options for 1B & 3B. If the team is comfortable with some combination of Gamel, Green & McGehee at 1B/3B, then we really only have to look at SS and the bullpen spots being vacated by Saito, K-Rod and Hawkins. While we will certainly make some moves in the bullpen, a healthy SP will pitch as many innings as all three of those RPs. We also should have some in-house help for some of the bullpen openings. I'd guess we'll look at someone like Barmes at SS, and we'll get 1-2 veteran arms for the pen. Without any insider knowledge into the Brewers finances, I would think we could make these moves without having to trade away salary. Now, if we want to go after Reyes, or if we aren't comfortable with Gamel & Green and decide we need to sign a veteran 1B/3B, then we may need to trade away one of our starters (or someone like Hart) to free up cash.

If we don't really think we'll be a playoff team next year, then we should trade any of Wolf, Marcum and Grienke who we cannot extend so that we can get something better than draft picks from them. If we do think we'll be a playoff contender next year, then you only trade Wolf, Marcum or Grienke if you think the return you get in trade plus a FA you could get with the cost savings plus whatever rookie we start in their place will make us better than we would be without the trade. The Brewers have only been in the playoffs three times in their existance. When it looks like we could realistically compete for the playoffs, we can't make moves which will likely make us worse in the short-term. Peralta and Fiers make great AAA insurance next year, and should get plenty of starts as some of our starters suffer injuries. Even if Peralta/Fiers were able to match Wolf/Marcum/Greinke in 2012 (which doesn't seem likely), trading Wolf/Marcum/Greinke would hurt our team by eliminating our AAA depth. Now, if there is some trade we could make which would be such an upgrade that they would be worth the probable downgrade from Greinke/Marcum/Wolf to Peralta/Fiers, then you make the trade. That trade could be out there, and if it is, I hope we make it. However, I don't want to see us trade one of our starters for a AA guy with potential when the cost would be a significant downgrade in our chances at the playoffs in 2012. When we're in "rebuild mode," then I'm happy with those trades, but not when we've got a team with a good shot at the playoffs. Finally, I don't care what the pitchers are making, as long as it fits in the overall budget. Some years, we will pay more for pitchers when we have low-priced talent at other positions. Some years we will pay more for position players when we have low-priced talent in the rotation. In the not-too-distant future, we should have a steady stream of young MLB ready pitchers, at a time when we will be paying a lot of money for guys like Braun and Weeks. That's just the way things cycle, so we can't set limits such as "we can only spend x on starting pitching, y on position players and z on the bullpen." Our starting pitching upgrades last offseason were the main reason we made the NLCS this year. We can have that whole group back again, so it would take a very good offer to make me break them up.

what are the chances Fielder might be open to a contract structured like Sabathia's with the Yankees, allowing him to hit the market again in a few years I hate these clauses. If the player does well, he'll opt out, and if he stinks or gets injured the team is stuck with him. No thanks. The only time I can think of that this helped a team is when A-Rod opted out of his contract, which didn't help the Yankees, but it helped the Rangers, who were no longer on the hook for the contract.

As long as Roenicke continues to use Morgan correctly (never starting against LHP and moving to RF late in games), he should be valueable, as he's always been able to get on base. At some point in the next three years, it will make sense to trade Morgan and start Schafer. A healthy, productive year in AAA for Schafer will go a long ways towards making next offseason that point. This would allow the Brewers to make sure Schafer is is ready, and it will allow Green & Gamel to have a year under their belt, so they're not starting three rookies everyday.

Good point Logan. Chuckie, there was an article linked a while back which said something like "the current TV deal was the worst in the majors at only $10MM per year. The new deal will triple that." Not exact words, but that's the gist of it as I remember it. If the article was correct (the Brewers are a privately held company, so their records are not public), I wouldn't expect the payroll to jump $20MM, but Attanasio has poured a lot of the team's revenues into payroll, so I would expect to see a significant jump, which could put us into the same payroll range as the Cardinals.

We had possibly the best season in Brewers history with 96 wins. We won our first playoff series in 29 years, and nearly made the World Series. We have most of our team returning, along with the GM who put it all together and an owner who has shown he will do everything in his power to put the best team possible on the field. We're losing a great player at 1B, but should be able to upgrade at SS & 3B. I'm looking forward to seeing Melvin's plan unfold this offseason and fully expect a playoff-caliber team to take the field for the Brewers next year. After next year, we should get a $20MM or so annual bump from a new TV deal. It sucks to lose to the Cardinals, but after the smoke clears, I'm pretty happy with the season and optimistic about the future.

Ideally, they'd have 2 of the 5 rotation spots filled by cheap (not necessarily worse) guys. Wolf and Marcum combined figure to make over $16 million (up from around $13 million this year) next season. That's a huge investment for a 3rd and 4th starter for a small market team. A lot of people argued much of the year that Marcum was a number 2. I think his playoff performance was a reality check. At best he's a 3 (all 3's can pitch like 2's at times). I'm also worried that Greinke is more a 3 than a 2 also, and they are paying him nearly ace money.Replacing Marcum & Wolf with Fiers and Peralta would save money. It would also significantly reduce our chances of making the playoffs. Even if Fiers and Peralta could match the numbers, which is highly unlikely, because Marcum and Wolf were good, and Fiers and Peralta are not "can't miss" prospects, we would have no one to replace a starter when an injury occurs. If someone blows us over with an offer for one of our starters, there is a possibility we'd trade one and let either Fiers or Peralta start the year in the rotation. I don't really see us doing that, as I'd assume Melvin/Attanasio are going to make a playoff push again in 2012. I can't imagine we'd trade two of our starters and put both Fiers and Peralta in the MLB rotation. This is a team which wouldn't play hot-hitting Taylor Green because he was a rookie. Trading two good MLB starters so that we can put two rookies into the starting rotation at a time when we will probably start rookies at 1B and 3B would cause Roenicke's head to explode. On Marcum, he was Toronto's opening day starter in 2010, and pitched well for them in a very tough division. He was then a very good pitcher for us up until the last couple weeks of the season and the playoffs. I am not ready to write him off due to a few bad starts. The playoffs were 11 games. Anyone can have a good or bad stretch during an 11 game period. I can remember people saying Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez were "choke artists" because of their playoff play. In my opinion, I wouldn't make a long-term judgement on any player based on what they do in the playoffs.

Melvin is not going to just dump McGehee without getting something for him. Casey will only be gone by a trade and I doubt he gets traded. I like the last line in the rotohardball article: Obviously we'll be keeping an eye on what Milwaukee does to remedy their infield during the Hot Stove League, but expect Doug Melvin and the Brew Crew executives to fix their glaring hole at shortstop through free agency while turning in-house at third base next year by penciling Taylor Green's name into the lineup card in 2012. As far as McGehee goes, a lot will come down to his expected price tag. If he's around a $1MM player, then he would make a good RH bat off the bench / backup 1B/3B. If his price tag is going to be $3MM, we could probably find a vet FA who could do the job better for less money (someone like Hairston). I agree with Nate that Melvin would trade Casey rather than letting him go. I'd expect someone will give us some A/AA prospects or maybe an experienced middle reliever in return. Someone will be enticed by Casey's 2009/2010 numbers and hope for a big rebound year.

Why will Gomez be gone? I said "after next year Gomez will be gone." I may be mistaken, but won't 2012 be his 3rd year of arby? If not, then it's my mistake. Regardless, I think the Gomez vs Morgan debate is a year premature. If we're starting (or giving a lot of playing time to) Green & Gamel (and I think financially that may be a necessity), then I highly doubt we would start/platoon a 3rd rookie in Schafer. At $1.8-1.9MM each, Morgan and Gomez provide good value to the 2012 Brewers, and Schafer provides good AAA depth. This is important, as we should still be making a strong push at the playoffs in 2012. Edit: I do see in Brewerfan's salary page that Gomez will be arby eligible (and therefore Brewers "property") for 2012 and 2013, so I was wrong.

You can't expect to go through only 6 starting pitchers again next year, that simply doesn't happen. Having AAA depth is a GOOD thing, it will allow Fiers or Peralta to get their feet wet when someone does get hurt. Agreed. They're great insurance, and it would probably benefit them to ease them in through injury replacement starts this year before giving them a spot. Many good pitchers have problems when they first come into the league. It would hurt the team much less if Fiers/Peralta were needed for 3-4 starts and faltered, as opposed to trading away Marcum/Narveson, giving Fiers/Peralta a guaranteed rotation spot, and then having them falter. Getting a few starts and then being able to go back to AAA to work on some things to be better prepared when their permanent spot opens seems the best option. If someone offers a ridiculous offer for one of our SP, then we certainly have to think about it, but I wouldn't be the one knocking on doors to trade one of the guys away. Injuries will mean that there will probably be plenty of MLB starts available for one or more of the guys who start the year in AAA.

I saw that too, and thought it was interesting since it came from the guy who almost got into a fight with an umpire over a ball/strike call.

The thing is, there are players across the league that do some sort of demonstrative thing every time they get on base. Pujols is one of many who crosses himself and points to the sky each and every time. That's just one example that comes to mind at the moment. I've brought this up on Twitter and a few other places and no one has ever been able to tell me what separates the two and why one is showing up the pitcher/opposing team and one is not. As I said in my post, "beast mode" doesn't bother me, and it was nice to see fans using it to get more involved in this season. However, I've seen many say that other teams should accept "untuck 'em" because of this and should accept "beast mode" because of that. If our team decides to do something different, we shouldn't judge how others perceive the action. Mike Cameron's dad didn't untuck his shirt while he was at work... he did it at home. The Brewers decided to do their actions on the field, so I can understand why other teams may take some offense at those actions. Personally, if I were playing against them, I would enjoy beating them more than I would if they didn't do their antics. That doesn't mean they shouldn't do them, just that if they are going to perform an action, they need to be ready to accept any repurcussions which stem from those actions, including having other teams and their fans dislike them.

I just don't see major overhauls like some are suggesting and I think he has a track record of a blind spot for over the hill outfielders and relief pitchers (read: gritty veterans), and I think he greatly overvalues Yuni B (and Kotsay, and Loe, and Hawkins) I don't see major overhauls either. I mentioned elsewhere, I'm hoping for Barmes, Saito, Hairston, and a FA veteran bullpen arm to go along with the annual veteran OF. Vegas should put odds on which guy Melvin pulls out of retirement this season to be the #5 OF. I share your concerns that Melvin has "switched gears" from relying on prospects to fill vital roles to filling those roles with vets, but I added up the salaries, and if we don't make any trades dumping a contract, I don't think we have the money to make a lot of big moves. In other words, we may have to start Gamel & Green. However, signing Barmes ($3.95MM this year) would cost us about the same as exercising Yuni's option. Barmes falls in the "veteran" mold, only he's actually good, so I think Melvin (even if he has switched gears) could get behind signing a guy like Barmes. Furcal's another guy who has some "warts" and may be able to be had for a reasonable contract. The $4MM we would spend on the waste of space that is Yuni could go a long ways towards signing someone who can improve the team. Last offseason there weren't options... this year there are.

I wouldn't have a problem trading Hart, but other than a potential need for salary relief, I don't see them trading Hart this offseason. They have Gindl and Schafer, but I don't see them starting another rookie (to go along with Gamel/Green). I guess that if they could net a stud young SS, they could put Gamel in RF and sign a 1B. If there's a RF out there in the FA market, then I'd guess the trading partner would simply sign that RF instead of giving up their SS. Plus, our offense would be decimated losing Prince and Hart. After next year, when Gamel and Green (hopefully) have a season under their belt and we have more certainty with them, I could see Gindl/Schafer getting their opportunity in 2013, making Hart a good trade chip at a time we may need to do a bit of a rebuild, as we'll be losing some pitching (potentially a lot of pitching). But, to the point of the thread, if we decided to trade Hart, I think he would have a good amount of value. After losing his way a couple of years ago, he has had two strong seasons and is under contract for two seasons at a reasonable (especially when compared to the comparable Jason Werth) price.