monty57

The fact he'll be 26-27 next season is actually a positive because he should be a more seasoned hitter than your ordinary rookie. And we'll have him really cheap for most of his MLB career. How the Brewers have handled Gamel (and his being "blocked") are bad for his lifetime earnings potential, but will probably be good for the Brewers. I really wish people would stop doubting him and/or get past the 'prospect block' (as in, mental block) that is, "he hasn't hit at MLB yet!" It is kind of a scary trend that we basically are looking like we'll doubt anyone who comes up through the system. I like getting players like Greinke and Marcum, but I don't want our future to be us continually trading all of our good prospects for proven players simply because we don't trust prospects to play in the big leagues. We don't have enough money or prospects/draft picks to keep that up for too long. I equate it to the problem people run into after graduating: Employers want experience before they'll hire you, but you can't get experience until someone hires you. We won't know how Gamel will perform as a starting MLB player until he is allowed to be a starting MLB player. His minor league numbers (the only time he's been allowed to start everyday on a regular basis) seem to suggest that he will put up good offensive numbers. Few will put up numbers like Prince, and that's why he's going to be paid over $20MM per year and probably won't be wearing a Brewers uniform next year. Gamel and Green should be good players for league minimum, allowing us to remain a playoff contender and use our money on a position where we don't have a good option, like Shortstop and possibly the bullpen, and in potentially extending the likes of Greinke and Marcum. Without young, inexpensive players coming out of the minors, we will not be able to continue to extend our star players. Gamel and Green are the two best options to help us out next year. They could help us this year, but I'm beginning to give up on that happening. Then hopefully Peralta will step in to replace Wolf after next year, and the cycle continues. Maybe guys like Thornberg and the other young prospects will allow us extend another star player when guys like Hart are gone. Without (not with) rookies getting a chance, the Brewers will cease to be a playoff contender in the future.

They've got the new TV deal and I just for the life of me do NOT understand why people continue to throw out the 85 million dollar payroll limit. The new TV deal, while not releasing it's public numbers is rumored to be at the absolute minimum 10 million, and please feel free to dismiss this all you'd like, but I have friends who work for both FSN and the Brewers who speculate it could produce an additional 20 million annually. I certainly won't dismiss it. I hope it's true. I just used the $85MM number because it's our current salary (according to BF.net's salary page), and I said Prince & Braun would take up roughly half of this year's salary. Simple 3% inflation would take the salary to roughly $98.5MM by 2016, but the last time I mentioned that the discussion got into the economy, and I didn't want to open that can of worms. If the TV deal would produce even $10MM more annually, 3% inflation would take the team's payroll to around $110MM by 2016 (using $95MM as the 2011 base... current $85MM + $10MM for TV). Of course, these numbers are subject to a lot of variables, and are only there for point of reference. Braun will be paid $19MM. Assume $23MM for Fielder, and you're still looking at 38.18% of your payroll on two players. Currently, our top two players, Fielder and Greinke, take up 34.11% of payroll. So, if inflation and the new TV deal can increase our payroll by around 30% over the next five years, then I think it's possible to sign Fielder. That's an "if" which only the Brewers' can answer. I'd love to see them sign Prince and extend Greinke and Marcum. Only the Brewers' brass knows for certain what their financial situation looks like. At the very least, the Weaver deal gives both the Brewers and Greinke (and his agent) a base to start negotiations. I'd certainly rather use that as a base than the Sabathia deal.

Not that I've researched it, but what I've heard the TV pundits say is that Pujols is likely to get the higest yearly avg, but Prince will likely get the biggest contract because he's younger so someone will give him a long-term deal. If he wins MVP this year, then he'll really be in the driver's seat. Throw in that we've got Gamel as an in-house replacement, and I'd concentrate my energy on Marcum and Greinke.

Let's just say that Prince would sign for $25 per and Greinke would sign for $20 per. We are talking a $15 million annual raise over this year for the two combined. In that case, if Hart and Wolf were moved in the off-season, would the payroll be workable factoring in the raises due to Rickie, Yo, Braun and the other arby guys? The problem is that Prince will probably sign an 8-10 year $200MM+ deal, which could become a huge anchor on the franchise for years. Braun's deal is risky. Prince's deal could be catastrophic. It would be for sure in 2012, but I don't know going forward. That's the key. Even if we no longer had Wolf and Hart in 2013, Braun ($8.5MM), Weeks ($10MM) and Yo ($7.75MM) will account for $26.25MM. If Greinke got $17MM and Prince got $23MM, that would be $66.25MM of our $85-ishMM payroll. Ax and Lucroy would be pre-arby, with guys like Narveson, Gomez and Morgan in arbitration. We'd probably have $10MM or so to cover 2 SP, our bullpen, SS, 3B and the bench. In 2014, Braun, Weeks and Yo get an additional $6MM, Ax & Lucroy go to arby and Morgan and Narveson are in final year of arby. It would really start to get tight. It may be doable, especially if the payroll goes up (inflation or extra from playoffs), but it would certainly be tight. I don't think it would be possible to do Greinke, Marcum and Fielder, so one thing to consider is the marginal difference in the dropoff between Marcum vs. his replacement and Fielder vs. Gamel. In other words, would we be better by extending Marcum and Greinke, starting Gamel at 1B with Hart and Wolf and an additional $10-15MM to spend, or would we be better by trading Hart and Wolf (and might as well trade Gamel if we have Fielder) and letting Marcum walk in order to keep Fielder? Assuming Greinke would be extended in either case, and given my scenario above, I would probably prefer to extend Marcum at 4/$44 rather than extending Fielder at 8-10/$200MM+. Of course, there are a lot of variables, such as what we'd get in trade for Hart & Wolf, how much payroll will rise in the future, how much insurance would cost on Fielder's contract and how certain we are that we'll have rookie pitchers ready to step into the MLB rotation over the next couple seasons. Then there's the scenario of "what if Greinke asks for $20MM/year?" Then, the possibility of extending Marcum & re-signing Fielder would be on the table. If Greinke/Fielder is remotely possible, then Marcum/Fielder should be feasible. Edit: On second thought... In 2016, Braun starts making $19MM. If Fielder were signed for $20-25MM, those two players would combine for roughly half of our current salary. We will likely have a higher payroll five years from now than we do today, but I doubt it will be that much higher. That would be the biggest reason Fielder will not be a Milwaukee Brewer beyond 2011. A 5-year deal for Greinke (2012-2016) may even be pushing it, as there's a chance we'd have to trade him before the final year. A lot can happen in five years, so we don't know who else we will have and tieing up even $36MM that far out is risky. Five years is really as far as I would like to go, and four years would be much more comfortable and give us a lot more flexibility in the future.

I would be fine extending both Grienke and Marcum 5/80 of Grienke 4/44 for Marcum I would be fine with that as well. It would set us up to be a playoff contender for years, and even if he falls off some, I don't think Marcum would get so bad that $11MM would be an outrageous sum for him to be in the rotation. there are a lot of positions to fill next year. You probably need 3 new relievers, a SS, a 1B, and a 3B. You can't rely on rookies everywhere. I don't now how excited I would be to bring back Hawkins or Saito next year Hopefully Kintzler, Braddock and de la Cruz can play a bigger role in the pen next season. Saito's pretty cheap, and I wouldn't mind bringing him back if we could once again get him on a 1 year/$1.5MM contract. Hawkins may look for a multi-year deal, and I'd steer clear of that. I'd probably be happy if he'd come back on a 1-year deal. We are seeing how nice a luxury it is to have some solid bullpen arms this year, and how much Loe hurt us in that role, so I agree we will look to at least have a solid "8th inning guy." Whether that's Hawkins, Saito or someone else, we'll probably spend some money there. Gamel, Green and McGehee should be able to cover 1B/3B. I just worry that Roenicke would start McGehee everyday. Hopefully Hairston will return, as he's a great utility guy. Our big hole to fill is SS, and that's probably where Melvin will try to spend a chunk of the money he's saving with Prince, Yuni, Hawkins, Counsell and Saito going away. Boras client was just a year away from becoming a free agent. That's the big surprise. Has Boras suddenly realized that his clients' interests are more important than his own? I wonder if Adenhart played into this, with Weaver realizing that you can't take anything for granted, and getting a guaranteed $85MM is better than taking significant risk to potentially get a little more.

I'd be shocked if the organization went with Gamel at 1st. They've never shown any confidence in Gamel, and Mat hasn't been very reliable either. Although I get what you're saying, I'd be shocked if they didn't go with Gamel at 1B. They've started him all season at 1B in AAA to get him prepped to take over, and it's a really obvious move. I'd say he has been very reliable, just not in the brief "cups of coffee" he's had in the majors. His minor league numbers make him look like a good hitter. I get the sense that Reyes wants to stay in New York, which is why the Mets did not trade him. I really do not think Reyes signing with Milwaukee is realistic, as great as that would be. I know many will hate to hear this, but I could easily see Betancourt being our starting SS again next year. That may be the case, but the Brewers making a big run into the playoffs, while the Mets give away talent because the owners lost all their money to Bernie Madoff may make the Brewers an appealing destination. The Brewers could probably offer him as much as the Mets, and he'd be on a much better team. It would really come down to his desire to live in New York City over Milwaukee. If that's the case, there's not much the Brewers could do. If they don't replace Yuni, they will not be as good ("on paper") next year as they are this year, because Gamel will not be as good as Prince, and the only real areas to upgrade are SS & 3B. I think he would have value to the Brewers, as a right-handed batting option backing up Green/Gamel at 3B and 1B. He's only going to be 29-years-old, and I'd prefer to keep him rather than sell low. That's probably the best option, and I don't hate the prospect of McGehee getting a good number of starts next year at 3B/1B, but if they're choosing McGehee over Gamel and Green this year, I don't know if they'd change their mind for next year. It will be interesting to see what they do with the 1B/3B positions next year, and if they keep Casey, it'll be interesting to see how the contract/arbitration process goes. To the point of the thread, I will once again state that Green should be on the MLB roster now, and I really hope they bring him up prior to Sept 1. If I had to guess, they'll probably bring up Gamel to replace Dillard and Green will be called up after the minor league season is over.

Article on the Brewers site says that Gomez hopes to be practicing with the team this week and starting a minor league rehab as early as August 28 for a few games. They could probably have him back before Sept 1, but it might make sense to bring him back on Sept 1 to get another option for the playoffs. The article says Weeks is behind him, so he'll likely be out until after Sept 1. It would make sense to bring up Gamel/Green as a good bat off the bench/DH for the post-season. However, I've said it would make sense for Green to come up for months, so I don't expect it to happen now. Good point on de la Cruz. I'd hate to lose him after the season he's had. In addition to adding a live arm for the rest of this season, he could be a part of the 2012 bullpen when we lose Hawkins, Saito and K-Rod.

I was in Chicago for a conference and took in a couple of rooftop games. Multiple people noted how empty the bleachers were, and they're always sold out. They're definitely going to try to "make a splash" to keep fans in the seats. My guess is that they will give Pujols or Fielder $25MM / year. Even for a $130-150MM payroll, that's a lot of money on one player, but that signing would be enough for Cub fans to renew their season tickets. They'll probably exercise Dempster's option, but they may have to pay someone to take Zambrano off their hands. They should still be bad next year, and then the "splash" signings they'll continue to make will hamper them just like the Soriano signing is hampering them now. They should probably "go Orioles" and try to stock up on prospects to be good in a few years, but with the empty seats this season, I don't see that happening.

It would be a great story if the Brewers played the Phillies in the NLCS, but if the Brewers end up with the #2 seed, I will certainly be pulling for whichever team wins the West to pull off the upset and beat the Phillies. It is nice to finally be in the playoff picture, and have other teams looking at us saying "we don't want to play those guys in the playoffs."

I'd just stick with what got us here. There could be injuries, people could get thrown off schedule and so on. Narveson's better than Estrada, so why mess with what's working?

Betancourt heating up timed well with Rickie going down. It allowed our offense to be good enough, when complemented with outstanding pitching, to win a lot of games. Somehow, Betancourt's "hot streak" allowed many to believe that McGehee was also hitting well... I don't get that one. After sitting the bench too much for the first week or so, it seems Hairston has "proved himself" to Roenicke, so I'd guess going forward that he will play CF vs. lefties and 2B vs righties until Gomez and Weeks return. Hairston will then split time at SS/3B. I just hope that Yuni's hot streak won't keep him starting everyday over Hairston for the remainder of the season. A negative of a hot streak is if the manager comes to believe that he should expect that hitting to be the norm, and that the player will "snap out of the cold streak," when really the "cold streak" is the player's norm.

Didn't Narveson stink in the bullpen last year and pitch much better as a starter? As TheCrew said, no reason to rush him back, but I'd definitely keep him starting when he returns. Estrada has pitched well, but so has Narvy, and he can go more than five innings.

Should I throw another wrench in here... If we were to make the World Series, who would be our DH? If you don't like the thought of Kotsay getting a couple of starts in the most important games the Brewers will play in 30 years, then you may want to hope Doug brings up a better bat by Aug 31.

Braun asked for his last day off, and just a guess, but he'll probably get a day off every ten games or so. Hart will need some days off here and there. For some unknown reason, Kotsay will get at least one more start in CF. I'd say, Kotsay will get around 8-10 more starts over the remainder of the season - this is assuming no one gets injured, and doesn't take into consideration that we may be playing bench players more if we clinch early.

I'm not a "stathead" or "SABR zealot," so I'll put this the way my simple brain understands it: I think everyone should be able to agree that some players are better than others, so let's assume that's a fact. Everyone will probably also agree that Ryan Braun is a better player than a random A ball player, so let's also assume that's a fact. However, in one PA, the random A-baller could have a better outcome than Ryan Braun. In fact, he probably has a decent shot in one PA of matching or beating Braun (Russ and others here could probably give you rough odds of that happening). Over 20 PA, that random A-baller could still have a better outcome than Ryan Braun, but the odds would be less of that happening. Over 200 PA, the odds get less. Over 600 (roughly a full season), the odds are even less. Over a career, the odds are almost non-existant. The moral of the story is that we should try to put the best players on the roster, and to utilize the talent to maximize our efficiencies. If an inferior hitter is only going to get a handful of PA's (or an inferior defender only gets limited PT in the field), it's not as big a concern, as there is a chance a less talented player will outperform the more talented player. However, that doesn't mean we should just put lesser players on the team and say "it doesn't matter because they don't play much and can occasionally do well." The "sun shines on a dog's rear end" theory is not a good basis for roster management. Of course, there are concerns over service time, player development, etc, but for the most part, we should still try to put the best players on the roster. The question then becomes: "Is Kotsay the best available player for his role?" I'd argue that Kotsay is better than Counsell/Wilson/Lopez, so he wouldn't be my first choice to jettison. I'd bring up a more talented player from AAA and drop one of Counsell/Wilson/Lopez. Then it would be up to Roenicke to determine how to allocate the PT to maximize talent. When Hart was out earlier in the year (meaning more starts for the backup) I would have liked us to have our most talented player for that role. There are pretty good arguements that Kotsay wasn't the most talented player, but he filled the role. So yes, I'm happy when any player does something to help us win. I also think Kotsay is okay as long as he only gets a couple PA's per week. If he (and Counsell/Wilson/Lopez) are not the best options for Sept and the potential playoff games, I hope we get the best options onto the 25-man roster by Aug 31.

So he's the new Bill Hall. Put him against the Reds and he'll have a big hit in the 9th. Is there some enjoyment you get in mocking the guy for what he's done? Would you rather he not come through in those games to back your opinion of him as a player? He's 8 for 28 as a PH, the toughest job in baseball. The team is 27-18 in games he's started, many of those coming in place of an MVP candidate. What more do you naysayers want out of a bench player? Funny, I thought they played the Dodgers last night. Boy, this is serious. I can't even tell a joke. I haven't had too much of a problem with Kotsay this season, and less so since Hart came back and Kotsay is in the role he was hired for. I thought we should've kept Boggs instead of him at the start of the season, but not a really big deal. I was upset when Roenicke started Kotsay over Hart because in his opinion "Hart isn't a player you want to see out there everyday," based on some PAs in 2009 Spring Training, and I didn't like seeing Kotsay start in CF two days in a row when Morgan and Gomez were both healthy, but it seems he's being utilized correctly now.

What are these big spots? July 8th, bottom of the 9th, Brewers trail 7-6, 2 outs, bases loaded facing Cordero, Kotsay lines a 2 run single to RF, Brewers win 8-7. Two days later: bottom of the 9th, 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, Brewers trail 3-2, Kotsay pinch hits and lines a hit off of Cordero into short CF driving in the tying run. So he's the new Bill Hall. Put him against the Reds and he'll have a big hit in the 9th.

Are you honestly suggesting he might have aquired some clutch skill between 2010 and 2011 I think he learned that skill while kicking back having a few brews with Counsell this spring. Unfortunately, Counsell lost that ability by kicking back and having a few brews with Kotsay. It's like osmosis.

Doug Melvin told me the sprained thumb that forced Nashville's Taylor Green out of game Sunday is not considered serious. At least it's nice to see that Melvin can acknowledge Taylor Green's existance.

I've learned to never underestimate the memory of Brewerfan.net posters.

What's the state of the Cards' farm? They have some notable FA's after this season, led by Pujols and Carpenter, and they've traded away some good prospects over the past few seasons. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing them have to take a couple of steps back and re-build next year, when we still have most of our team returning.

Yeah, I forgot about K-Rod, he would certainly fit. Morgan was a hockey player, and they're just a different breed, fighting's in their veins, it's not an anger thing :-)

Does Prince Fielder count?I don't think so. Prince's early incidents all occurred where he was sure he wouldn't actually get into a fight. He's never even charged a mound, and has always been "held back," even when the person "holding him back" couldn't hold him back if Prince was really upset and wanted to get into a fight. The LA / Mota incident was odd, but if he wanted a fight he would've charged the mound, not bounced around outside the locker room for the cameras. The Parra incident seemed to be him asserting leadership by telling a seemingly mentally-weak teammate that he needed to watch the game and not hit the showers. He pushed him when Parra didn't listen to try to get Parra to sit down. I wouldn't recommend anyone attend Prince's leadership school, but to me these events didn't look like Prince was flying off into a rage. They were more calculated events that could look like he was ready to fight for his team, when a fight wasn't going to happen. I've unfortunately been around too much of this in my life. If I were on another team, I'd fear Rickie much more than Prince. In my opinion, Prince would yell at you, while Rickie would just smack you. Not that Rickie's close to being a hothead... I just wouldn't upset him. That said, no one on our team is going around throwing bats at umpires, spitting on umpires, throwing bags of bats & balls all over the field, throwing at batters and then saying he quits, or any other goofy thing going on with the people who seem to need anger management. There's a big difference between a calculated outburst and losing your head.

Maybe this is too big a generalization, but with the Meltdown Bradley and Carlos Zambrano circus acts, I'm certainly glad that Melvin seems to steer clear of guys with anger problems, even if they can hit. It doesn't really seem like guys who have "anger issues" early in their career ever seem to get them completely in check.

The Brewers, Braves, and either the Giants or the D-Backs would all have to struggle down the stretch for it to happen. Or the Brewers play decent, but the Cards go on a Rockies-esque finish to the season to take the Central. Other than head-to-head with the Brewers, the Cards have played very well lately. Thankfully, the Brewers have taken 4-of-6 of the head-to-head games and pulled out to a five game lead. These games are fun to watch, but I won't be comfortable until the Magic Number thread shows a picture of Robert Parrish.