monty57

One of the accountants on here can correct me if I'm wrong in any of this, but here's my understanding of things: The Brewers are set up as a limited partnership, so the General (or Managing) Partner - Attanasio - makes the decisions, but all partners split the profits (or losses) according to their ownership percentage. In other words, if the Brewers make a profit or loss, the owners claim their share of that profit or loss on their taxes. Most of the partners are likely high income earners, so they actually like the team to show a loss every now and then which they can write off of their income, as long as they are reasonably certain they will eventually garner either increased future income, or a larger long-term capital gain, which is taxed at a lower rate. For the first years of the new ownership, they put a lot of money into ballpark improvements which would allow for increased future revenues (the extra seats on field level in RF, the advertising "ribbons" LaRussa likes so much, the NYCE club, etc). The bottom line is that the organization is a private company, so unless they tell us, we won't know what their books look like. However, I think Attanasio & his group know how to run a business and make money, and (importantly for the fans) realize that putting a good product on the field is one of the best ways to increase (now maintain) their revenues. Finally, the new TV deal will help boost annual revenues, and therefore will likely mean a bump in payroll (if past history means anything). The playoff money will be a one-time thing, so I'd be pretty cautious about counting on that to boost future payrolls (at least beyond 2012).

Finally, I don't think Roenicke's use of Kotsay was because he thought Morgan/Gomez/Hart would break down if they played all the time. I think it was because he genuinely thought Kotsay was good and a better option than Morgan, until Morgan started out lights out and forced his hand. He did make a comment to the effect of "I don't think Hart's the type of guy you want playing every day," and said he felt this way because he saw him during a Spring Training game a few years ago. Thankfully, Hart started out on a tear, forcing Roenicke to play him. I have little doubt that if Hart had struggled out of the gate, he would have been platooned with Kotsay.

The issue is how do you shore up 1B irrespective of other positions. No, because you have to keep the entire roster under a budget, so what you do at 1B has an effect on what you do with other positions. Since we have good hitting prospects who will be paid league minimum, I'd prefer to use Green/Gamel/McGehee at 1B/3B and use any available money on positions where we do not have a ready-made answer, notably SS and possibly the bullpen, where we will lose K-Rod, Hawkins and Saito. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in a good veteran bat who would mainly pinch hit, but could pick up some starts at 1B, but I wouldn't want to spend too much money there.

I didn't like Roenicke playing Kotsay over Morgan when Hart was hurt, and I didn't like him playing Kotsay back-to-back days in CF when Gomez & Morgan were healthy. Since then, Roenicke seems to be using Kotsay a little better. I thought Boggs should've beaten him out from the beginning, but the team kept Kotsay and Reed over Boggs, and didn't play him when he was called up, so who knows if we'd have been better off with Boggs over Kotsay. I never wanted Gamel up as a pinch hitter, wasting a year's service time to get 200 PAs as a pinch hitter. I would like Gamel up now to add another good bat to a lineup struggling to score runs, but there are already threads talking about this. My feeling is that Roenicke likes guys he's seen and is comfortable with. That has probably hurt us by not bringing up Green earlier, and not playing Hairston more at SS once we acquired him (although part of that is keeping Counsell/Wilson over Carroll and Weeks getting hurt). It may or may not have hurt us with Kotsay, as I don't know how Boggs would've played if given Kotsay's 240 or so PAs. I do think it could come to hurt us in the future if he indeed refuses to play young guys over vets, as with out payroll, we need to get rookies into the starting lineup. I'll get my answer on that when we see what they do at 1B/3B in the offseason.

Important point. We've increased payroll to become a mid-market team, but we're not a big market team, and can't be run like one. If we had a $100-something million payroll, then Berkman would be in the middle of the crosshairs of who I would target. Since we don't have a big market payroll, we absolutely need to have league minimum guys playing big roles on the team. Over the past few seasons, we've traded away many of our prospects with the potential to be MLB players, so the prospects we do have become that much more valueable. If we pay expensive veterans to play positions that guys like Gamel and Green could fill, we will crash & burn. Think Mets-style fire sales where we will have to give players away to anyone who will take the salary. I doubt this will happen, as we are owned by a money manager, and Melvin has been doing this a long time (and was let go by the Rangers because he didn't want to give A-Rod the $250MM contract). We are losing a lot of salary off the books in Fielder, Hawkins, Saito, Counsell, Betancourt, K-Rod, etc. If Gamel and Green can play significant roles, and our bullpen can be bolstered by pre-arby guys, we should have some money next year, but if we do have money to pay for a veteran FA, I would look to fill a position where we do not have an in-house option ready to step in. That would be shortstop.

If the Brewers offered him something like 8 years and $180,000 million he might sign without going to free agency. If the Brewers were to offer him a $180 billion contract, I agree that he should forego free agency and sign with the Brewers :-) Seriously, I believe that the interview was supposed to air during TBS' playoff coverage, so Fielder answered the question which he had previously "ducked." Brian Anderson or someone else with TBS decided to "leak" this prior to the airing of the interview. That said, this is about as much news as Fielder saying that he put a cup of water in the freezer and took a cup of ice out. After he declined the Brewers' 5/$100 offer, they extended Braun, Yo, Hart and Weeks, so they obviously went in a different direction. Melvin is going to have to be very careful over the next few years as to what contracts he doles out, expecially after trading away so many prospects. This is part of why I'm so gung-ho on guys like Green and Gamel playing a big part in our future... financially we need them.

Yes, McGehee actually has had some success in his history, as opposed to Yuni who has been bad, is bad, and forever will be bad.

I can think of two reasons he'd be upset. First, it will effect his next contract, as the number of saves a relief pitcher has is a huge negotiating factor (like wins for a starter or RBI for a batter). He will still get a big deal based on his history, but probably not as big as it could be. The other reason is for posterity. Imagine if Hoffman had to spend half a season in his prime as a set-up man... he never would've reached 600. As a matter of pride and as a matter of where he will eventually end up in the "best closers" list, I'm sure he'd like to add to his tally. Plus, I believe there have been time when Axford has closed three games in a row, so I can understand where K-Rod would feel slighted that he didn't get one just to give Axford a day off. Finally, who knows what the conversation was when he agreed to waive the vesting option. He may have been told he would get save opportunities, and now he feels he was lied to. That said, I'm with most other posters on this. He'll only be here a short time, and we're better off giving Axford saves on any occasion where he's rested. Axford's part of the future, K-Rod's not, and Axford appears to be the better pitcher.

That's an interesting take on the subject, and I feel pretty much the same. It seems some of the sports marketing geniuses decided that "core" fans would never leave, and the only way to get new fans was to change the rules to increase scoring. It wasn't too difficult for me to stop watching basketball, even though I used to follow the Bucks. Like you, I almost stopped watching football but they seemed to ease up on the pass-interference-on-every-play mentality, as they probably realized they were losing fans. Baseball could probably do something similar by switching to aluminum bats or making the pitchers throw off flat ground. If they made some rules changes which caused every game to be a 20-18 slugfest, I'd probably just walk to the nearest softball park where the beer's cheaper.

To be completely honest with myself, whatever happens I will probably watch nearly every Brewers game until the day I die. The team moving may be the one exception. If the Brewers decide to go with another "all in" year next year, trading away the remainder of their prospects for a year or two of a 1B & SS, and then losing Marcum, Greinke and Wolf after 2012 and assuring us of an extended period of bad baseball, I will probably spend more of my time away from FSN Wisconsin, but I would still be a Brewers fan.

Your viewpoint sounds much like the kid in school whose job it is to study well and earn A's, but who chooses to screw around and not to work because he doesn't like the teacher, then blames the teacher for the crappy grades which to everyone else on the planet he clearly & deservedly earned because he didn't do what he actually had to do. Or, he's the student who doesn't have to show up to class (or doesn't seem to listen while in class), but still gets good grades. A lot of teachers despise those students. I don't know about Gamel's personality, but regardless of his "antics," he's always put up very good numbers in the minors, and seems to be our best bet for an inexpensive, talented young 1B for the 2012 Brewers.

Thanks for mentioning this first. Now I won't feel responsible for jinx-by-thought. My thought exactly. I didn't want to say anything in the "Cowboy picture" thread.

I agree with Nate, and this was one of the first things I thought of when I saw the ESPN crawl saying they're "asking" the new owners to move the Astros to the AL. If there are more interleague games, and they are not bunched together like they are now, then NL teams will want to have a big bat on the bench, which would be kind of wasted money for the non-interleague games. I think it will either go all DH or all "pitcher hits," and the union wouldn't want to lose the DH, so I'd bet on all DH.

I think the GM is the most important and most underrated position in sports. A bad GM like Bando or Matt Millen can destroy a franchise for a decade plus, while a good one like Ron Wolf or Ted Thompson can create a dynasty. That's the fun part about a board like this... we'll never be professional athletes, be we can all be "Monday morning GM's."

If we aren't able to sign Marcum and Greinke to extensions, we may want to exercise Wolf's option. A year ago, we were willing to trade any of our prospects for a decent SP, so I don't want to go the other direction unless we're absolutely certain we could fill Wolf's role. Plus, as jericho said, the Mets won't want to add salary. If Tejada is indeed a B-/C+ SS, I would think we'd be able to come up with comperable talent from our minor league system. I would think it would be in the Mets' best interest to let Reyes go and take the draft picks, but I'm not subject to the NYC media. If they are willing to trade a good glove/high OBP 21-year-old SS to us, I'd certainly try to make a deal. If they're worried about 2B, maybe we offer a comperable prospect (B-/C+ rating) and "sweeten" the deal with Farris and play up his good defense and 70 SB season.

I mean what is everyone's brilliant idea for the 5-8 spots in the lineup? Hairston has played SS, and I really don't think there's much doubt he would have more range than Yuni. As long as his arm strength is okay, he should be a significant defensive upgrade at SS. This season, he's getting on base at a .340 clip, and for his career .326. In contrast, Yuni's getting on base at a .271 clip, with a career .293 OBP. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that Hairston would be an upgrade offensively and defensively over Yuni. He can hit #2 vs lefties and 6-8 vs righties. I mentioned this earlier, but I think Lucroy is being overplayed. It's hard for any catcher to play as much as he is. He's starting 80% of the games, and as soon as Wolf comes out of the game, Roenicke subs Lucroy in for Kottaras. Give the kid a few days off. Kottaras is prefectly capable of getting a few more starts and finishing off the games he starts. My guess is that Lucroy would be better if better rested, and Kottaras would be better if he gets more reps. Obviously the biggest jolt will come when Weeks is back. Until then, I'd put Hairston at SS with Green at 2B and McGehee at 3B. Once Weeks is back, I'd have Green & McGehee share time at 3B. We've got some really talented players, so getting rid of the offensive black hole that is Yuni B will do wonders. He's never been good, and probably never will be. McGehee at least has some hope of rebounding, so I wouldn't bench him unless Green continues to outhit him. For now, I'd do a soft platoon. We have a good team, and are playing well, so I hate to nitpick, but anything we do to make ourselves a little better should be done. When the only arguement to defend Yuni is that maybe he's a key to the team chemistry, then I think it's time to go with Plan B. We didn't have a plan B until Melvin traded for Hairston, but now that we have him and Green on the roster, lets get Yuni out of there. Once Weeks is back, let's limit Casey's reps as well.

Okay, now that we've started losing some games and have looked somewhat overmatched by some good teams, let's reassess the situation. Why have we started playing worse recently? 1) Our Miracle on Ice, Dream team, once-in-a-lifetime team chemistry was destroyed because Roenicke finally caved and started Taylor Green a couple of times 2) We are winning this season because of really good pitching, with an offense that is centered around two future Hall-of-Famers and a couple above average bats. However, we are hamstrung by the fact that when Braun & Fielder get in a bit of a slump (especially when we have an injury to someone like Weeks), we struggle to score runs because of major holes in the lineup. If it is (1) above, then I say ship all rookies out as soon as possible, so the Roenicke team magic can once again return. If it is (2) above, the offense will continue to be touch-and-go as long as we continue to believe that Yuni & McGehee need to play everyday and bat 5-6, Lucroy has to start 80% of the time and replace Kottaras as soon as Wolf's out, and someone like Gamel can't come up because Counsell and Kotsay need to get PAs. This could be alleviated by starting Hairston at SS with Green at 2B, and once Weeks returns split time at 3B between Green & McGehee. Lucroy is good, but he seems to be wearing down. It's okay to give him a day off now & then. Gamel should have been brought up already, but why not admit that our offense could use more punch and bring him up (I assume we could still do that?). Nothing revolutionary, but maybe it's a good time to try maximizing team talent for a while.

Gamel is 26. Best case scenario is Darwin Barney, most likely is Justin Sellers. Best comp for Gamel at this point is Ross Gload or Dan Johnson. You are correct to state that Gamel wouldn't net a palatable return (thus he shouldn't be traded) but don't confuse actual value with perceived. Other teams would probably view him as just another overage possibly 4A player, but I'd hope you know differently as a die hard Brewers' fan. I would hope other GMs would look beyond age to value prospects. They should realize that good prospects can be blocked, and that doesn't diminish them as players. The thing that would make him less valueable (in my mind) would be the big question of why they would trade him when a spot has finally opened up on the Brewers' roster. That is the same question I have, as I think he should be the Brewers' starting 1B next year.

if Prince is extended, where do you move Gamel To another team, hopefully for a good young SS prospect.

Looks like Taylor Green will be starting at 2B tonight. Even though this is due to a couple of injuries, it certainly makes Green even more valueable if the Brewers feel he can handle 2B as well as 3B. Plus, it opens up the possibility of Hairston getting some starts at SS even before Weeks returns.

It's funny how folks think that somehow the players being human beings shouldn't make any difference at all as to how they perform. Psychology matters in every form of human endeavor. Why WOULDN'T it matter here? Then why didn't the team implode when Weeks & Gomez got injured and we brought in new players (Lopez & Hairston) to start in front of Counsell & Wilson, or when we traded for K-Rod which bumped Loe, Saito, Hawkins, etc down a peg in the 'pen, or when Gamel came up to DH, or most lately when Taylor Green actually was called up and has played well enough to take some starts away from McGehee and apparently leap-frog in front of Kotsay as the #1 pinch hitter? I understand that teams are made up of humans, but MLB teams aren't made up of 10-year-old girls. They understand that this is a business and that it's a game. When McGhee was plodding through a really, really bad few months, I highly doubt anyone would have been so upset with a Taylor Green call up that they would have let it affect their game. Seeing how he's hit and the reception he (and other new players) have received in the dugout, I'd guess we simply would have had one more good player on the 25-man roster for an additional few months this year at the cost of someone like Wilson who isn't doing anything for this team anyways. For every arguement that bringing someone up could upset the fragile psyches of our players, one could argue that not bringing someone up will lead to resentment by the rest of the team that the front office isn't doing anything to try to improve. All in all, it appears that we have a pretty accepting group of players on the team. They cheer for their teammates, whether they be a struggling Counsell or a Taylor Green getting his first hit (it was veteran pitcher Marcum scuffing up the "fake" ball). We have brought in both veteran and young players this season with no apparent change in the team's overall demeanor, so I don't think the "team chemistry" thing Roenicke likes to talk about is really "team chemistry" as much as it's a fear of playing rookies (or maybe more accurately, people Roenicke hasn't seen play).

I think it would be better to say "he has no business playing if there is a better-than-normal chance that he will re-injure the ankle." As long as he's back in time to "shake the rust off" for the playoffs, I'm fine. Things may be different if we didn't have as big a lead in the division, but the worst thing that could happen would be to rush him back when he's not needed only to see him twist the ankle again and miss the playoffs.

but that's just me No it's not

bigredrobbo posted the Bill James clinch formula (games ahead squared divided by 4 is greater than games left) awhile back and the Brewers are ahead of that (27+ v 20) although if they lose today behind it (18 v 19) That's kind of funny. We clinched quite a while ago, but if we lose today we haven't clinched. I'll go out on a limb and guess that formula isn't 100% accurate :-)

I wonder if they're souring on Gamel, or if they're just keeping him in AAA 'til their season ends today because he hasn't done so great in limited-PT opportunities in the bigs, and playing everyday 'til the end of the AAA season might be better for him in the long run. Is there any chance that bringing Gamel up for September would cost the Brewers a year of service or get him to arbitration a year early? I know he's burned quite a bit of service time between his period sitting the bench under Macha, his time on the DL to start last season and the period he was up to DH this season. Maybe one of the "rules gurus" on the site could see how much service time Gamel has and determine if another 30 days would push him over the limit.