monty57
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Everything posted by monty57
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This really isn't a good place for this, so I shouldn't have said anything. I'll just end this by saying Dam's statement has an element of truth, and I certainly respect his sentiment, but to dismiss economists as nonsensical due to the level of mathematics used in economics would be a big mistake.Yes it would. I just thought the correlation made sense, and the quote fit. Just like economics changed from more simple ceteris paribus models to econometric models, baseball has moved from more simple analytical tools to more advanced statistical tools. However, complex tools could cause some to overlook (or disregard) a simple answer. House prices can't increase 50%/year indefinitely, and getting behind in the count can cause you to groove fastballs. Maybe it's as simple as that or maybe not. I don't know what Greinke's problem is, or if there even is a problem. But it is possible that he could continue to get shelled while still striking people out.
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I'm sorry, but this is just silly. People predict epic recessions/the end of America all the time, and the bottom line is that they are largely unpredictable by any means. If this is your opinion of economics you have little understanding of the field. That is an extremely ignorant statement.This from Kenneth Dam, Professor Emeritus at University of Chicago, and one of the world's foremost experts on law & economics: "I increasingly have the feeling that the legal people are closer to daily reality than the economists. The mathematization of economics is too often an excuse to write papers and dissertations just to repeat the obvious." There's probably some truth to that statement when applied to baseball analysis as well.
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This is probably jumping the gun, and hopefully Marcum won't miss any time after being pulled from tonight's game with an injury, but this has been my worst fear for a while. Ever since Estrada was put in the bullpen instead of being sent to the AAA rotation, we have been without a valid option if one of our starting pitchers goes down. I certainly hope Marcum is okay and makes his next start. Otherwise, we're probably either going to see someone like Sam Narron make a start or we're going to trot Estrada out for 3-inning bullpen busters until he's stretched out. Am I missing something? Do we have any options if a starting pitcher goes down?
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So Roenicke uses this to name Hawknis his "7th inning guy," because Loe has "been pretty good as the 8th inning guy." Aaargh!
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Maybe Dusty just didn't like him and made him face Pujols 226 times. That's about the only way a .953 OPS against wouldn't be a big sign saying "Don't use against RH hitters." -
So in his first appearance, George has shown his proponents and critics to both be true. He let a ball get by, allowing a run to score, and followed that up with a 2-run HR.
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Why? He'd be the only kid in the neighborhood who could outhit the player named on his bat http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Thanks for the link DieHard. "The Brewers want to retain Fielder, and he wants to stay. However, I’m not sure the Brewers will be willing to match what the free-agent market will offer him. The Brewers are more likely to extend their starting pitchers than they are to re-sign Fielder. The Brewers should enjoy this special time with one of the game's best sluggers. If the fans keep filling the upper deck and the Brewers make it deep into the playoffs, maybe a miracle will happen." It's good to see that national sports writers think we will work on extending Marcum and Greinke, and it's not just a pipe dream from us fans.
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Probably not good to speculate when there is obviously information to which we should never be privy. I hope the best for Braddock and hope he can get the issues under control. When he's on, he's certainly a big boost to our bullpen, so I'm sure the Brewers aren't sending him down for no reason.
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That would probably be our best option, but I doubt it happens. Roenicke has already said that he wants to give some guys days off, so I'll stand by my earlier guess: Prince DH / Kotsay at 1B, Rickie DH / Counsell 2B (Yuni SS), Braun DH / Kotsay LF for the three game set. It's possible Wilson will get the 2B gig while Rickie DH's when we face a lefty.
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I hope the assignment is "catcher looking for a job in a different organization." Nieves brings very little to the table. He could possibly help AAA pitchers learn how MLB pitchers pitch, but we have Rivera in AAA who could do the same thing.
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Hopefully the end of the Nieves experiment is a sign that other things will change as well. Loe should not be the "8th inning guy." If we have to have an "8th inning guy," it should be either Braddock or Hawkins depending on who they will be facing. If our starters continue to pitch 6-7 innings per night, we should be okay if we mainly use Braddock and Hawkins in the 7th/8th with Axford in the 9th when we have the lead. Loe and Dillard can take the games we're not winning, and the occasional inning where Loe or Hawkins need a night off. Estrada should never have been placed in the pen... not because he's no good, but rather because we have no other SP who can fill in when one of our starters goes down. He should be sent down and inserted into the AAA rotation. Bring up someone like McClendon or even newly acquired LOOGY Daniel Ray Herrera, who would be useful to our pen. We have been ravaged by injuries in the pen this season. Braddock is back, and that should help. Hopefully, we can get some others back soon. Adding Kintzler and Saito would make our pen pretty good, but until they're back, we should be okay if the relievers would be used correctly.
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Finally. Did someone wake Melvin up from his coma in time to realize the season's underway? File this under "Most obvious roster upgrade in Brewers' history."
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I understand that 6 games in between are at home and play NL rules, but what's the problem of having a guy like Gamel able to PH late in games? That sums it up pretty well. I don't want to see Gamel rotting on the bench the rest of the year like he was a couple seasons ago, but having him DH / 1B for Boston and then pinch hit for a week and DH / 1B again before getting sent back down wouldn't be a problem. Not necessarily in this order, but I expect we'll see Prince DH / Kotsay at 1B, Rickie DH / Counsell 2B (Yuni SS), Braun DH / Kotsay LF for the three game set. This assures us that we'll get an added dosage of Kotsay / Yuni / Counsell / Wilson instead of someone who can actually hit. We have some in-house solutions to our problems. Why do we fail to utilize them?
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Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 2)
monty57 replied to Oxy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The blog mentioned that "it caused problems" with Yuni in Seattle when the staff tried to get him to lay off the first pitch. That problem would be easily solved by platooning Wilson and Counsell with Yuni on the bench. As long as he keeps getting trotted out there nearly every day, he is not going to listen to anything the coaching staff tells him. -
Brewerfan Poll: Prince Fielder's Defense
monty57 replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I still fully expect a Canseco-like lowlight where Prince will whiff on a routine throw, causing it to hit him in the face. First, that image made me laugh. Second, does this mean that Prince deserves at least a "2," since he must be better than someone like Almonte. I gave him a "3" since he does seem to do a good job on balls hit at him, and he does have better than expected range for someone his size. He's probably hit his limited defensive ceiling, and I don't think he'll age well as a 1B, which is the only reason I won't cry when/if the Cubs sign him to a 7-year deal this offseason. -
I hope Melvin learned his lesson from the Hall deal and stays away from extending McGehee long term He'd better not sign him long-term. Even before this season's poor start, I didn't want him signed long-term. He'll be at the end of his prime years when his arby years are up, so any long-term deal would be paying peak market value for his declining years. Now that Casey's had a terrible start, his numbers this year will be pretty bad even if he does heat up, meaning he'll be cheap in arbitration this offseason. You sign star players like Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Greinke, Yo to extensions if they are willing. You go year-to-year with players like McGehee, especially when their pre-arby and arby years coincide with their "prime" years.
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Not certain, but I would think that if someone wanted to give Mark A a bunch of money, the MLB wouldn't care, as long as it didn't involve transfer of ownership. It wouldn't be a donation, as the Brewers aren't a 501©3, so there may be some gift taxes to work around, as the federal government would want their 55%. The Brewers could sell the guy a permanent front row seat or an ad somewhere... the $3MM would be taxable revenue, but that would be offset if it's used to pay Prince. In other words, if some fan wanted to give the Brewers a bunch of money for no personal gain other than seeing his team win, the Brewers / MLB would find some way to make it happen.
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There is a need to call up Green, as Milwaukee has 3 SS, while Nashville has one bad one, while the Brewers have one slumping 3B (and two SS who can play 3B), while Nashville has two good 3B. Why not swap a SS from Milwaukee for a 3B from Nashville? I don't see them calling up Green to take over for Casey from Day 1, as there would be a lot of pressure on him, and many fans would be in an uproar. However, he would get some starts at 3B to give Casey some days off. If he hit well, while Casey continued to struggle, then I think he could work his way into a platoon, or even a starting role. If he doesn't hit well, or Casey finds his swing, then no harm done... we've upgraded our bench and the days off helped Casey get back on track.
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Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 2)
monty57 replied to Oxy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Cut him today. Just get rid of him. No one will trade for him. Cut him. Let Wilson and Counsel work at SS. That's a bad combo, but not worse than Yuni. Or if you don't want Wilson, make a deal for a AAA guy or back up vet like an Adam Everett or Omar Visquel. The price should be modest. But anything will be better than Yuni. While I'm glad that Roenicke has finally decided to give Yuni a lot of days on the bench, I'm not sure we can just cut him. We are so limited at SS in our system, we may need to hold onto him in case of injury. If we cut Yuni and Wilson gets hurt, we'd be in a situation where Counsell's 41-year-old body would be the only thing keeping us from seeing Edwin Maysonet every day. I know we all want to believe that any warm body is better than Yuni, but I think an extended period of Maysonet at SS may have us wishing we had Yuni back. I'd like to see a better bat on the bench, but I think our best solution would be to find a way to sneak Wilson to AAA. We could then platoon Yuni & Counsell, possibly bring up Green to bolster the bench and get some starts at 3B, and we'd have Wilson close at hand in case of injury. Of course, if we could find this supposed AAA SS that is better than Yuni laying around somewhere, we should grab him, but until he appears, we may need to hold onto our insurance policy. -
The increase in player pay has EXPONENTIALLY outstripped the wages of the rest of us. This goes for all professional sports. Right, and our current payroll is around $86MM. Given an historically normal (for "the rest of us") inflation of 3%, the Brewers payroll would be (in millions): 2012 $88.58 2013 $91.24 2014 $93.97 2015 $96.79 2016 $99.70 2017 $102.69 2018 $105.77 As you mentioned, baseball payrolls generally rise at a faster rate than this, but this could be a good point of reference for discussions. Please, I'm not trying to turn this into a discussion of current economic times, just putting basic numbers out there.
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Sending down Estrada makes sense. He could get stretched back out as a starter, which was my worry when he was moved to the pen. Right now, an injury in the rotation probably means Sam Narron is a Brewers starter. I wouldn't mind Gamel or Boggs brought up, as both make sense. Whoever is brought up could be replaced by Saito when he is healthy, which should be around when the interleague games are over. Or, we could keep Boggs up and dump Kotsay. A guy can dream, right?
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IIRC, Hart was a 1B, but since we had Fielder also rising through the ranks, Hart tried unsuccessfully to man 3B, before being moved to RF. Hit all the way up, but rough in the field, and was still relatively new to the OF when he made it to the Brewers, which makes it more surprising that he seems to be getting worse defensively as he ages.
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mlb discussing reallignment (2 15 team leagues)
monty57 replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I couldn't see the player's union going for no DH, as that would mean high priced vets might retire instead of making millions. If they go all DH or no DH, I think it would be all DH. -
With Prince they have mostly been a sub .500 team. Overall they are 405-405, exactly .500, for his 5 full seasons. 2010 77 85 .475 2009 80 82 .494 2008 90 72 .556 2007 83 79 .512 2006 75 87 .463 Not to get off topic, but it's kind of sad that the "glory days" we dreamed of when we had Prince, JJ, Rickie, etc in the minors and were suffering through 100+ loss seasons has netted us a .500 record and one playoff appearance.
