monty57

Good article. I like the line: Corey Hart’s impending return will push Kotsay to the bench, where he’ll do less damage to his own team but no more to opposing pitchers;

That's funny & that's about how I feel as well. He definitely doesn't have any range, but if the ball is hit to him he's fine. I have noticed the Brewers doing a lot of exaggerated shifts. Is this just Roenicke's managing style, or are they trying to compensate for Yuni's range?

We had one of the top offenses in the league last season and have roughly the same group coming back. As bad as Yuni may be, he is better offensively than Escobar was for us last season. Barring injuries, our offense should be fine. I find it exciting that I get to watch good pitching on a regular basis. In the past, it was pretty much a fluke when one of our pitchers was having a good night. Now, it's kind of a fluke when one of our pitchers has a bad night.

Chadomac, that's a whole different line of thought. While I'm certainly happy with our current roster, and that we have our pitchers locked up next season as well, we did give up a lot of young talent. There is definitely reason to believe that had we traded Fielder for a top of the rotation starter who we'd have for multiple seasons, we still could've brought in Marcum, and used the money we're paying Greinke to bring in someone like Adam Dunn for multiple seasons. That way, we'd still have Cain, Esocbar, Jeffress and Odorizzi, have a good rotation and have Dunn for more than this season. In other words, there is a possibility that we'd still be a playoff team, and possibly be better for more years into the future. Nothing is done in a vacuum, and the hardest thing about not trading Fielder is that we will lose him for draft picks that may or may not ever see a MLB playing field. A World Series in 2011 will make it all worth it :-)

As a note to those who are passionate on the other side of this topic, thanks. I truly want to know how the team could possibly improve by losing Prince. I still don't buy it, but I do like to know that there are glimmers of hope out there I can latch on to. I agree that losing Prince will definitely hurt, and will not be easy to replace. My "glimmer of hope" is that the loss of production from Fielder to Gamel will be made up by an increase in production at one of our weak spots, SS and/or CF. If there is a way to sign one of the premiere FA SS's (Furcal, Rollins, Reyes), than I think the upgrade at SS, both offensively and defensively, will at least make up for some of the lost production from "downgrading" from Fielder to Gamel. There is also a possibility of trading Wolf or Hart for an upgrade if the management feels that one of our pitchers (Rogers, Rivas, etc) would be a better option than Wolf or that someone like Gindl would be a better option than Hart. Maybe this isn't a likely scenario, but it's possible. It could help the team talent-wise and open up more funds for the signing of one of the aforementioned SS's. Will losing Fielder hurt us? Absolutely Is there a chance that Melvin can make some moves that will make us better in 2012 than 2011? Probably, but it won't be easy.

Ndog, my big problem with bringing Gamel up is that the difference between him getting 3 or 4 PAs per week vs. Kotsay or Morgan getting 3 or 4 PAs per week is not going to be that big. With that limited amount of PAs, any of the players could get hot or cold, so it's entirely possible that Kotsay/Morgan would outperform Gamel as a LH pinch hitter. Why waste an entire year of Gamel as a starter for a minimal difference this season? If he pinch hits for us this year, he will be a FA in four seasons. If he sits in AAA most of the season, we get him for his age 31 season, when he should still be very productive. Throw in that he's not a naturally great defender, so his learning curve at a new position is probably steeper than that for a naturally good defender, and I think it would be a crime to bring him up to be one of three LH bats off the bench. It wouldn't make much difference this season (may be a slight positive or may be a slight negative value vs. what we have), it would hurt us next year, as he would learn 1B on the fly at the MLB level, and it would mean losing him a season early. If we are going to replace Kotsay, I'd prefer adding Boggs back to the 40 man and bringing him up. The only reason I want Gamel up is if he's going to get regular playing time. He'll be up as a DH when needed, and would probably be called up if Fielder or McGehee were to get injured.

In addition to needing to work on 1B defense, keeping him in AAA for most of the year allows us to have him for five seasons as a starter. We've already wasted one of his pre-arby years for little return, so I don't want to waste another one for some pinch hit ABs. Once Hart's back, Kotsay will not get much PT. The difference between a good player and a bad player over this limited PT will be negligible. In other words, I doubt having Gamel get the PHs instead of Kotsay will make a meaningful difference for this year's team. At least the difference won't be worth losing him a year earlier to FA. Gamel was a top prospect. He's had a few injuries, but when healthy has shown that he should be a good hitter. I want him to be a Brewers starter from 2012-2016. I don't like that we signed Kotsay and gave him a job over seemingly better players, but with Morgan, Counsell and Kottaras as other LH options on the bench, I don't think Kotsay will do much to hurt us going forward. Of course, future injuries can change things, but for now I want Gamel in AAA.

You're probably right. As I mentioned, I think the Brewers originally set his rehab schedule to have him go on the 29th or 30th, but last night's rainout threw off the schedule. Now they're in the predicament of having a healthy Greinke throwing in the minor leagues vs. throwing off the MLB rotation to get Greinke back ASAP.

Makes sense. If I'm calculating right (I'm not very good at this), the rainout may make Yo pitch twice in a row on 5-days rest. He pitched Sunday the 10th, and if Marcum, Wolf, Narveson take today, tomorrow and Friday, Yo will pitch again on Saturday the 16th. Then we have Estrada, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson and an off day, making Yo's next start on Friday the 22nd. I hope that doesn't throw him off his game. I'm hoping he can start on the 26th or 27th, since those are home games and I want to go. It's highly unlikely, because the earliest he will make a rehab start is probably Monday. He needs to throw another simulated game on Friday, then a couple days off. So that gives him starts on April 18 and 23. Since there is an off day on April 28, I'd say April 29 is the day they are targeting. It would be nice if Greinke could start on April 26. If not, we have two more Estrada starts (17th & 26th). More importantly, if he starts the 29th, that would have Marcum, Wolf & Narveson going a full week between starts. I want to see him ASAP, but it could cause problems if 3/5 of your rotation has six off days between starts. I'm certainly not an expert on this, but I think teams like to keep players on as routine a schedule as possible, and a full week between starts could be a stretch. I guess it would be possible to start Yo & Marcum on three days rest on the 26th & 27th, and then throw Grienke in on the 29th. Would that be a better option, or even something the Brewers would consider doing this early in the season? The rainout yesterday did seem to screw up the rotation. Without it, Greinke could've fit into the 29th without a hitch. That's probably what they were planning on when they started his rehab. There are rainouts all the time and teams deal with it, so I'm sure I've made more of a deal out of it than it deserves. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Question for someone who's better at determining future starters than I am: Does yesterday's rainout have any bearing on the staff going forward... i.e. does this mean that Estrada will not be needed?

"Paying dues" is the phrase I was using to indicate that a player learns at the major league level, at the cost to the team of high-end production. When Gamel steps in, 1B is downgraded, and even if he becomes a "great" player, I suspect it will be near the end of his arbitration years, so that all folds into my feeling that losing Prince is not going to provide an improvement on what I hope is a good 2011 team. If anyone has been "paying his dues" in the minor leagues, it's Gamel. He was expected to be with the Brewers years ago, but McGehee took over 3B, so Gamel has been stuck "paying his dues" in the minors. While it stinks for Gamel, long-term this will probably be beneficial to the Brewers, as he ought to be major league ready next year, as opposed to many of their prospects who were brought up when they were very young. We'll have Gamel at a relatively cheap salary until he's around 32 years old... in other words for most of his productive career.

If there was a clear favorite, the other person would've been let go today. Good point. I favor Kottaras, but admittedly don't know much about judging a catcher's defensive impact on the game. Melvin/Roenicke obviously have some affinity for keeping a veteran, good-defense guy as a backup. At least we're finally starting to get some players healthy, so we can get some of the junk off the roster. When fully healthy, this is a pretty darn good team.

I'd certainly prefer a bench player who is a RH hitting IF who has some talent with the bat and the glove. However, we don't have that player, and since we're stocked with RH starters and LH bench players, we are benefitted by having a decent RH bat on the bench. I would have preferred keeping Boggs over Kotsay, and Cruz over Almonte. That would've given us two RH options - one with the ability to play decent defense in the OF and one capable of playing good defense all over the IF. Once we decided to keep Kotsay, we kind of needed to keep Almonte. First, he can play 2B/3B (he was there this spring), even if it's only for the end of the game in which someone is injured... Boggs couldn't do that. Second, Cruz doesn't hit well enough to be considered a decent RH bat off the bench.

Almonte would almost guaranteed be only a PH then. When and where will he play if Kotsay is truly the backup corner OF and 1B and Gomez/Morgan are splitting time at CF? While I agree with you completely on Nieves being the only RH bat off the bench, I think I'd rather be assured of keeping Kottaras and getting rid of Nieves only if a viable backup IF is available to be had via FA or trade. Almonte seems like an unnecessary spare part because of Kotsay. How many teams keep SIX OF? The more I think about it, the more I expect to see Kottaras dealt for a backup IF, even though I disagree with the move. I'd guess that once Hart is back: -Almonte will be primarily the RH bat off the bench, which is an important role for a NL team. He will also be the RH OF who plays when/if Hart or Braun suffers a minor injury throughout the season. Also, Almonte came up as a SS, and this spring played 1B, 2B, 3B, RF & LF. I don't want him playing the field long-term, but if necessary, he could get plugged into one of those positions to finish out a game in case of injury. -Morgan should be on pretty much a straight platoon with Gomez in CF -Kotsay will be a LH bat off the bench, with a few spot starts to give Hart & Braun some rest. -Nieves will be off the 25 man roster. He is virtually useless if we already have two more talented catchers on the roster, one LH & one RH. His only value comes as insurance in case we pinch hit Lucroy or Kottaras and then the catcher in the game gets injured. This is awfully rare, and the fact that both can hit negates the need to pinch hit for them, so it is even less likely to be a factor.

but even if he will ever develop to the level of journeyman respectability, it won't be soon. Another ABSOLUTELY ridiculous statement. It won't be anytime soon? Because you say so? He's ready right now to be a very good big league offensive player, but he's not going to supplant Prince or McGehee, so he's in AAA. What HASN'T he done offensively in the minors to make you think this? Since you already admit that it's a small sample size. As much as it sucks for Gamel, the best course for the Brewers is to keep him in the minors this year, where he will likely post an OPS over 1.00 and work on his defense at 1B. While Gamel probably won't be as good offensively as Prince (few are), he should be able to post respectable numbers for league minimum, so that we don't have to go out and pick up an expensive FA 1B. To those who say that we get better by intelligently using his raise: news flash, the Brewers payroll isn't going up by $15M next year. The reason Prince isn't staying is because the Milwaukee payroll is maxed out. There is no raise that will be better used on your moneyball gems. What he doesn't make in 2012 will be used to retain McGehee, or Greinke, or Marcum. Well...this is just flat out wrong. Not sure where you're getting this. Marcum and Greinke are signed through next year and Greinke is being paid the exact same. And the raises to the other two are hardly prohibitive. But the Brewers also signed a TV deal that's due to kick in next year, and they've spent the same amount of money and according to Forbes have made 11-12 million with fewer people attending. We shouldn't see any huge jumps in salary next year, as most of our key players (other than Fielder) are locked up. We will also be done paying for Hawkins and Betancourt. Any extensions to Grienke/Marcum would take effect starting in 2013, when Wolf will also be off the books, probably replaced by someone from within the system. I think it's reasonable to speculate that we could look into extensions for Grienke/Marcum and still add one good player (Furcal/Reyes/Rollins?) at SS or two players who would be upgrades at SS & CF. I also think it's possible, depending on minor league player development, that someone like Wolf or Hart could get traded next offseason, bringing in talent and freeing up cash.

Just my eyes talking here, but Kottaras seems to have gotten a lot better defensively. Last year he looked kind of lost behind the plate, but he seems much more capable in the games he's played so far. He hit just .203/.305/.396 last year. That .701 OPS is pretty good for a catcher, especially when compared to Nieves' career .573 OPS, which pretty much makes him one of the worst hitters baseball has ever seen. Kottaras is a young player with good plate discipline and power, and apparently vastly improved defense. It has been nice that Nieves has hit better than anticipated in his few PAs this season, but don't expect it to continue. I remember Roenicke making a statement just after he was hired that he liked having a veteran backup, and the next day Nieves was picked up. I really hope that after seeing Kottaras and Nieves play, Roenicke/Melvin don't use "veteran status" as the determining factor in who to keep. Kottaras is pretty obviously the better player, plus he's young with a lot of "control years" remaining.

From McCalvy's recent article: Greinke still faces weeks of rehabilitation. He will have to throw a series of bullpen sessions and perhaps simulated games before he's cleared for a Minor League rehab assignment. That process could take 10 days to two weeks. Then he will have to build his pitch count in Minor League games over the course of another three or four weeks. So, if I'm reading that correctly, he will be out another 5-6 weeks, putting him back in the rotation late May. I think the Brewers have the right to tell his teammates that if they ever see him pick up a basketball, they can kick him in the butt.

Plush is fond of Prince’s regal name. He asked Coach Roenicke to start calling him “Count Plush.” Coach said, “Tone, just hit triples.” ~From the Tony Plush Twitter feed

Here's the link to the Brewerfan response to last season's Nats/Marlins brawl

We'll already have Grienke and Marcum next year, so the extensions for them wouldn't start until 2013. Also, I believe KC sent us $2MM to cover Betancourt's buyout. For next year, we should have all five starters, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, C, most of our bullpen and Gamel, Morgan, Gomez, Gindl, Schafer for CF/1B/backup OF plus other cheapr spare parts. With all of this, we should have $15-20MM to spend. The next year, Wolf comes off the books (we'll have an option, which right now doesn't look likely to be exercised), and he should be able to be replaced internally with a good league-minimum guy from the minors. There is also a distinct possibility that Hart gets traded before his contract is up if some of our minor league OFs progress. Because so much of our roster is already locked in for the next several seasons, I think it's doable to extend Grienke and Marcum and still go after a big upgrade at SS. It's very early to be looking at this, but it is always kind of fun to be "long term GM."

Furcal, Reyes and Rollins will all be FA at the end of the season. All three would be tremendous boosts to this team. If they aren't available at trade deadline this season, then I hope we use some of "Prince's money" to go after one of them in the offseason.

well, alot of that was Derek Lowe, who also pitched great, just not as great as Yo. We won a pitcher's duel. How often did that happen last year? With Greinke coming next month and as long as Marcum pitches like he's capable of, we have the potential to win a lot of pitchers duels this year. This year's Crew is capable of winning games when we only score 2 to 4 runs, last year's Crew rarely did that I guess what I was saying is that we're only scoring 2.6 runs per game in the small number of games we've played. Our offense is much better than it has shown, even with some of the dead weight we have. Fielder & McGehee will heat up, and we'll get even better as players get healthy. Agreed on the pitching front. No offense is good enough to score a lot of runs every game, and it is good to have multiple pitchers who can keep us in the games where our offense fails to show up.

Really glad that we got our first win, and really glad that Morgan is making the most of his PT, forcing Roenicke's hand in giving him PT. Hopefully it will come at Kotsay's expense now and at Gomez's expense once Hart's back. All this scrub-bashing aside, it still required a 2-hit shutout to get our 1-0 win. We really need Fielder and McGehee to wake up before we'll start scoring more runs. Putting Morgan between Weeks and Braun on a regular basiswill help, but some hits out of the 4-5 spots in the order will really get us rolling.

To trade Fielder now you would have to deal him to a team who will go after him in the offseason. Not necessarily. Any team looking to make the playoffs that could use an upgrade at 1B/DH would be a trade target. I agree with rluzinski that it's tough to speculate at this point. First, it's far too early for us to believe we're out of the playoffs, and second it's far too early to determine what other teams will be in the playoff hunt and what the market will look like. As to the original question, I agree with most posters that we will not get better simply by Prince leaving, but there are scenarios in which we could be better next year than we are this year. If we're out of the playoff hunt in July, then a trade makes all kinds of sense to shore up holes on the MLB team and re-supply the farm. If we hold him the entire season, then we'd have to use the money wisely. I'd be all for making a big push for Reyes, Rollins or Furcal. Their improvement over Betancourt should negate much of the decline from Prince to Gamel. If Schafer gets (and stays) healthy this year, he would likely be an improvement in CF in 2012.

McCalvy has an article on this: Hart can't go 100% and there are rumors of "mental hurdles" as well as physical ones. Better news on Lucroy, who as PEM mentioned is playing in the minors, and Grienke, who will throw off a mound soon. They'll have better timetable on Grienke once they've seen him throw off the mound.