monty57

It's funny, but as I read this and think about Wells' contract all I can think of is the team that, 4-5 years from now will still be locked into paying Fielder $25MM / year for the next 3-4 seasons. Oh, and the Cubs still having to pay Soriano until he's around 40 years old. I honestly can't understand what the Angels are thinking. Wells even recently admitted that he was seriously overpaid. I guess when you have a ridiculous monetary advantage over most other teams, contracts aren't nearly as much of a worry.

Apparently Fielder wants 8 years, $200 million this offseason. Now that I'm done laughing at that, I really hope the Cubs sign him to an 8 year, $200MM deal. I like Prince, but really? $25MM/year for eight years for a one-dimensional player who has shown signs of being an elite hitter, but only in even# seasons? If he's worth that, then Albert Pujols had better hold out for $35MM/season.

I don't want to turn this into a Greinke thread, but he doesn't seem to want to pitch in a big market, which seriously limits his FA value. I think we could lock him up, but those who have mentioned his desire to pitch for what he perceives to be a winning team have a good point. If he knows we're losing Fielder and Weeks, he may not want to sign an extension. Back to Weeks, I think he'll be a good player going forward, but he only has about 1.5 years of really good baseball at the MLB level. To me, that's not enough to be paid like the best 2B in the history of the game. I like the concept of getting him locked up, and I was one that was arguing for extending him prior to last season, when he probably could have been locked up relatively cheaply. I think it is important for the Brewers to get at least two of Weeks, Marcum and Greinke signed, and it appears that they are making a shot at getting a deal done with Weeks. If they find that they are too far apart to make a deal, then I really hope they quickly turn their attention to extending the two pitchers.

Two quick points: First, Weeks was only paid $2+MM last year in year 2 of arby due to his past injuries & performance. From my limited knowledge of arbitration values, previous years' salaries are pretty important in determining following years' salaries. The Brewers' offer would be somewhere around an 80% raise from year 2 to year 3. Plus, it's the initial offer, and the Brewers generally seem to settle somewhere at the mid-point (around $5-6MM), so it's not like it's an embarassing lowbal offer like some are making it out to be. From McCalvy's article, it sounds like the Brewers' worry of coming to a one-year deal is more with Loe than with Weeks. I'd guess that they'll settle in to a 1-year $5-6MM deal and then attempt to build a longer-term deal off of this first year. Second, if Weeks and Fielder did walk, along with Betancourt and $4MM or so in buyouts (Hoffman, Suppan, etc) being off the books, we'd have plenty of money to find someone else for the offense. I've mentioned it before, but there are a lot of moving parts in baseball, so we certainly can't assume that losing Fielder and Weeks means that they'll be replaced by Gamel and Farris. Maybe we make a trade, or maybe we sign Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes to play SS. If we had one of them leading off, his upgrade over Betancourt would surely negate the loss in value from Weeks to Farris. There are so many variables that making a prediction of how bad our lineup would be without Weeks and Fielder is a bit premature. That said, I would like to see the Brewers come to terms with Weeks, but I'm with the group that would rather sign Greinke and Marcum (if that's possible). If Weeks is indeed trying to become the highest paid 2B in MLB history, than I think it's in the best interest of the Brewers to let him walk. He's had a good season and a half of MLB baseball under his belt, so I think he's asking too much if he thinks he should get that contract.

So are they going to pull a Ken Macha and start him on opening day to keep the pressure off the young kids they have in Lincecum and Cain?

I'm just not confident he could handle all 4 spots Me either, and I worry that if his defense is below average it will be too easy for Roenicke to use Dickerson or Boggs for the backup corner OF and Counsell for the backup 3B. The last thing a manager wants is to have a replacement player boot a ball that costs the team a win.

If they let him hit FA because they were trying to lowball him, I'd be upset. On the flip side, if they sign him to an Uggla-type deal (making him the highest paid 2B in MLB history) and he doesn't stay healthy or just doesn't match his career-best 2010, then it could really hurt the Brewers' future. In general, 2B haven't been highly-paid players. Of course Weeks' agent is going to use Uggla's contract to try to maximize a deal, and of course Ash is going to do what he can to lower the value somewhat. Ash has been doing this a long time, so I don't think he'll pull off a really boneheaded move. I'd guess that Weeks will be signed, and his great, great grandkids will still be living off of his earnings... but he won't (and shouldn't) match Uggla's deal. With the Fielder & Parra arby-avoiding deals getting done, I'm expecting we'll be hearing about Rickie very soon. Completely agree. Now that the Fielder monkey is off the team's back, they're free to get on with more pressing matters like working on extensions for Weeks and hopefully Greinke and/or Marcum.

Remember that it takes two to tango. Melvin knows that Prince isn't going to extend with the Brewers, so he probably wanted to get Fielder's (and Parra's) contract out of the way so that he can focus on trying to extend other players. Rather than nickel & diming Fielder/Boras, he probably just came out really trying to get a deal done. Plus, a happy Fielder may make extending his good buddy Weeks a little easier.

I don't see Pujols on the Cubs as a dream scenario. My dream scenario would have Pujols and Fielder playing in the AL, far far away from the Brewers division rivals.

I agree that some AL teams may offer the most money, knowing that they can move Prince to DH, but Prince really seems to be the type that wants to prove everyone wrong. I think the fact that he knows an AL team may force him to the DH role may be the one reason Prince would take a little less money to go to the NL. If the monitary difference is substantial, he'll almost certainly go with the bigger deal, but if the Orioles offer something like 7 years/$150MM and the Cubs offer 7 years / $145MM, I could see him going to the Cubs so that he'd know he'd never be forced to DH.

For all of Branyan's career, he's put up numbers that seemingly would justify a starting position on a MLB roster, but for some reason he always gets passed over. I'd certiainly be for signing him for a bench spot. I like Gamel, but I'd rather see him getting work in AAA. Unlike Gamel, Branyan has proven that he can play 1B/3B/corner OF in the majors and that he can hit MLB pitching. Plus, with his experience, he's probably a better option for getting sporadic PT as a bench player.

As I read through this, I was giong to post pretty much exactly what honuswagner21 said. The first and most important factor will be the biggest contract thrown out there. If there are two similar contracts, the second factor for Prince will be going to a team that will play him at 1B. Of course, this would be guaranteed by going to an NL team. As much as I dislike the thought, I think the Cubs are a very likely destination. I also wouldn't dismiss the possibility that the Nationals make a big run at him. They certainly seem to think that getting a couple high-priced superstars is more important than having good players at every position.

And... is it better for the Brewers' franchise to have him spend 2011 on the MLB bench with four subsequent years as a starter, or playing full-time in AAA with five subsequent years as a starter. Personally, for 2011 I don't think he'd get enough PAs to add much more to the team then they would get be letting someone like Dickerson get the ABs, and his defense would regress rather than progress by spending his time on the MLB bench rather than getting full-time reps at AAA. Therefore, the Brewers would potentially be slightly better in 2011 with Gamel's bat on the bench, but would be significantly worse in 2012 since Gamel's defense would be one year removed from having played full time (and it wasn't good to begin with).

I've mentioned this before, but I think you have to look at the system as a whole, and not separate the minor leagues and major leagues. The Brewers have a young MLB team, with many players under control for a long time. The reason our minor leagues are less-than-stellar is that we've graduated many players to the majors and traded others for top-line MLB talent. Of course I would like to have a stacked MLB team and a stacked MiLB system, but if I had to choose, I'd certainly take a good MLB team with a lot of players locked up long term, but not many MLB-ready MiLB players than a bad MLB team with more promising MiLB players. Put another way, we shouldn't need a C, 3B/1B, LF, RF or relief pitcher for a long time. Depending on how the contract talks go, we could add 2B and top-of-the-rotation starter to the list as well. We also have young CFs on the MLB roster, they just aren't that good, or maybe that should be said "haven't lived up to potential." We do have some promising CFs in the minors, so really what the Brewers need in the minors that they don't have is a near-ready SS.

TLB, I too remember that Gamel didn't like playing 1B. I don't think he likes fielding the throws from the other players, which is the single most important part of 1B. I think McGehee is our future 1B, so I hope Gamel gets full-time PT at 3B in Nashville. I'm much less worried about his ability to hit at the MLB level than I am at his ability to play 3B, so he will definitely benefit from a full year at Nashville (barring an injury at the MLB level). His additional value to the Brewers in 2011 over some other player is probably pretty minimal, as most of the days off for Braun and Hart will probably go to someone who has some idea how to play corner OF (Dickerson or Boggs), so Mat would be limited to occasional starts at 3B, pinch hitting duties (where he was Macha's 3rd LH option in 2009) and DH duty, for which he could very easily be called up from AAA. In an effort to "go for it" this year, he will probably make the MLB roster for the marginal improvement he'll bring. His couple hundred ABs could go either way. It's such a small sample he could be good, bad or average. He won't get any continuous reps in the field, where he needs to improve in order to help the Brewers in the future. We will also lose Luis Cruz, who isn't a great player, but would be sorely missed if Betancourt or Counsell had any meaningful injury.

ramssuperbowl, I don't want to be too nitpicky, but you first claim that "there isn't a single person in the system who has a good shot at becoming more than a mid-rotation starter," and then, in summing up the 2009 draft mention that Arnett has a "#2/flirting with ace type ceiling," Heckathorn has a "substantial ceiling," and Hall is a "Bonus baby who throws mid-90's gas from a 6'5" frame." And that was only one draft, which of course didn't include guys like Rogers and Rivas, who could be helping out the MLB clubs as early as this season. Now, I don't know what you mean by "good shot," but we definitely still have a lot of arms who should help at the MLB level, a number of which have a high ceiling. I don't follow pre-draft prospects, but I do understand your frustration this past season, as I read posts submitted by the draft-knowledgable people on this site lamenting our passing on some good-but-expensive talent. I do take that with a grain of salt, as Melvin has complained that certain players basically tell some teams not to bother drafting them, as they won't sign with certain teams if drafted. Plus, the whole Covey thing is sad all around, and I can only hope he overcomes his health issues.

I hope the best for Jack, and I have no idea if this rumor is true, but every day people who are really good at something see their business fail because they weren't good at all aspects of running the business. While I agree that two years isn't long enough to turn around a failing franchise, I'd guess that the owners have a great deal of insight into how a GM runs the business. If a GM truly is bad at some aspects of his job, he could run the franchise completely into the dirt if left on the job too long. Look at Sal Bando for the Brewers and Matt Millen with the Lions. I have little doubt that if Jack Z were let go, he would quickly find a job as a scouting director.

C'mon TLB, Greinke only has one Cy Young Award. You know that pitchers need at least 2-3 before they can be considered good :-) Honestly, I wouldn't waste my time in the arguement. The "Melvin won't pick up pitching" arguement has been hashed out on hundreds of threads already over the past couple seasons, so I have to come to the conclusion that anyone who rips the pitchers we picked up this season based on their talent not being good enough will simply not be happy until Melvin is gone. We picked up two good pitchers in the prime of their careers. I mentioned in another thread that it I feel it is impossible to predict where our system (MLB to rookie league) will be in two seasons, as there are far too many variables. Ripping moves that make us very good at the major league level for at least two seasons on the grounds that we will surely be bad 3+ years down the road is like trying to predict the weather three years out. You can speculate, but you're not going to be really accurate.

Does Milledge even play CF? Our offense should be alright, while our defense will be bad, even with Gomez in CF. I sure don't want to put a corner outfielder in CF just to slightly increase our offense. If we did that, and if "Batter Nine You Sucky" is as bad as everyone says, we could potentially be looking at one of the worst defenses ever assembled. That said, if he would come to camp to compete with Dickerson and Boggs for the 4/5 OF spots, then I'd be fine with it. We could use a good RH bat off the bench. However, he has a history of not being a good clubhouse guy, so you'd have to wonder how he'd handle sitting the bench behind Braun and Hart, who won't take too many days off.

Minor League camp is also held in AZ. If someone is sent to minor league camp, it's not uncommon for them to occasionally be called back to play for the MLB team, especially when they have a split squad game, or in past seasons when they had to head to Tucson. (I believe all the former Tucson teams are now in the Phoenix area).

That's pretty much where I was going with that thought. First, we will probably extend some of Weeks, Marcum and Greinke. In addition to the possible moves you mentioned, depending on how players develop, we could end up trading Wolf, Hart or really any player. One of our current minor leaguers may take a big, unexpected step forward, or we may make that rare Braun or Pujols-type draft pick that is MLB superstar ready after only a short stint in the minors. Who knows, maybe someone like Gomez will even step up and live up to his potential, which is something no one would expect and would greatly help our future. That's the thing... there are so many unknowns that could occur, we really can't make a solid determination on where we will be in two seasons. We can see what the trade did to our system today, but we don't know what future actions will occur that will affect our system going forward. It is, however, fun to speculate :-)

Unless they can sign Garza to an extension this is a silly move that depletes depth for their eventual rebuilding. Unfortunately, when you're a big market team, the eventual rebuild doesn't necessarily have to come. This was really supposed to be their down time, and they've now at least given themselves a shot at a division title. Some of their obscene contracts will start coming due over the next few years, and they have the financial resources to rebuild quickly. I still think the Brewers are better this year, but when another team in your division gets better, your chances of making the playoffs get worse.

From my post at the end of page one, if we were to extend all three of Weeks, Marcum & Greinke, and Braun, Yo, Hart and McGehee are all on the team, I'd estimate that they would account for somewhere around $70MM. If Wolf's option were picked up, it would bump the number to around $80MM. I don't know where the salary will be in a couple of years, but I don't know if we could pay seven players $70MM and still field a full team. It's possible with a lot of pre-arby guys, but I don't know if it's likely. Agreed but hindsight is 20/20. If I would've told you in August when we extended Hart that we would not only have Greinke and Marcum by December but have to worry about extending them, I think you would've rightfully laughed at me. I know I would've laughed at myself if I made that statement. Extending Hart to a pretty decent deal for the Brewers (assuming he maintains something close to last season's production) was the smart move at the time. A lot of people (myself included) wanted Hart traded last season, and when he wasn't traded were not happy with the extension based on 1/2 year of good production. Instead of trading high, we bought high. I would've been much, much happier if Melvin had come out and announced a Weeks extension mid-way through last season, as we'd now be discussing what to do with Hart instead of what to do with Weeks.

If the projections use the standard "past three years weighted average" format, here's why I think the -52 runs makes sense: Weeks was limited to 147 games in 2009 and posted a .740 OPS in 2008 Hart had his solid .892 OPS 2007 fall off the 3-year horizon, and had .759 & .753 OPS in 2008 & 2009 before his solid .865 OPS in 2010 Fielder's 1.013 OPS 2007 also falls off the 3-year horizon, leaving him with an .879 OPS in 2008, 1.014 in 2009 and .872 in 2010 (the most heavily weighted year) Braun's devastating rookie campaign (1.004 OPS) is off the horizon. His last three season have been .888 OPS in 2008, .937 OPS in 2009, .866 in 2010. Like Fielder, his heaviest weighting is from his worst season. As the author said, these are just projections which are much more accurate on players as a whole than they are on individual players. We have some tough-to-project players. Weeks has been solid when healthy the past two seasons, but he's not that far from being the guy that about 3/4 of the fans wanted to DFA. Hart seems to be really good or really bad, and it's hard to predict that he will be nearly as good in 2011 as he was in 2010. Fielder is great, but he seems to be elite in odd years and really good in even years. I personally blame a well-placed Braves fastball for Braun's sub-par (for him) season in 2010, and he seems to be the most consistant/projectable Brewers hitter. We also have three players (not including the pitcher's spot) at the end of the lineup who will very likely post sub-.700 OPS for the season. Of course, we had that last year as well, it's just that Hart played like a superstar, Edmonds, Inglett, Zaun and Cain hit better than expected in their 608 combined ABs and our pitchers hit very well. I could see Fielder and Braun "bouncing back" and Hart & Weeks posting .800+ OPS seasons, leading us to a Top 5 offense, or I could see regression in some players, giving us a Top 10-15 offense. As long as we have Fielder and Braun, I don't see us being below average on offense... they're too good.

I agree, and I think this is a point where the PR department outweighs what is smart long-term. The Royals will probably have a hard time selling any Greinke trade to the fans, but it would be really tough if the two pitchers were minor leaguers (many fans don't seem to count minor leaguers as much value). It makes it a little easier a sell to have a starting CF, SS and a 100+MPH fireballer in the setup role. IMHO it's a dumb move, but it sounds sexy. Gettting Greinke is far and away the highlight of this trade, but the second reason I like it is that I don't have to fret over how the Brewers are wasting Jeffress in the bullpen.