monty57

I agree with that, Invader3k, depending on what he means be "dismantled." We could still have most of our meaningful players back even if we're sellers this year. The only big parts of the team that have been discussed in trade talks are Fielder and Hart, and trading either of them should bring back some talent that could help us next year, not to mention opening up more salary that could be used on a FA 1B/RF so we wouldn't have a huge downgrade (i.e. trade Feilder for young pitching and sign Konerko, D. Lee or Dunn to a 1-2 year deal play 1B). Even if we traded Fielder, Bush, Hoffman, Davis, Counsell and Inglett by the deadline, we would still have C, 3B, SS, 2B, LF, CF, RF, at least 4/5 of our rotation and most of our bullpen back next year. That's hardly dismantling the team, although it may mean that Mark A may still have his sights set on extending Fielder.

I guess you can get away with being a jerk as long as you dominate. Not so much when you're pretty average. Just ask Barry Bonds.

There is no doubt theat the eight game deficit is not insurmountable. The question is what are the odds and at what point do you decide that the odds are small enough that you start playing/planning for the future. I've expected a run that would push the Brewers near .500 for quite a while now, as we have at least as much talent on the roster this season as we did last season. However, this leads us to a similar situation to last season, where we decide "we've still got a chance," and end up being minor buyers instead of sellers. We still miss the playoffs and we go into next season with less talent and more questions than we'd have if we decided to sell. I know this feels like giving up, and it goes against everything we're always taught in athletics, but it's probably going to be the best thing for the franchise. I've figured early-to-mid July would be the earliest you'd think of selling, and that would only be for someone like Fielder or Hart. I'm sure nothing will happen until at least the St. Louis series is over, but if your scenario palys out, and we're six games out at All Star break, I think we'll see last season all over again... we'll miss the playoffs by a wide margin, and we'll get nothing (not even draft picks) for all of the talent that leaves at the end of the season. We'll have numerous debates over what we should do with players like Narveson, Parra and Gomez, as their playing time will be limited, and we're going to put way too many pitches on the arms of Yo & Axford trying to eke out a few extra wins. Plus, we can probably start taking bets on which of our AA/AAA guys will get traded for a patchwork upgrade like Lopez last year who will leave after the season's over. My money is on Katin, as Melvin has a habit of getting rid of minor leaguers I like. But you're right, we still have a chance, even if it is only 2.7%. I'll continue to cheer for them every day.

I think Narveson's definitely going to be a Brewer for a while. The question is just whether it's going to be as a starter or a reliever. Since we've had such a poor start to this season, it just seems to me like this would be a good time to give him a bunch of starts to see how he pans out. With Yo, Wolf, Davis, Bush and Parra all on the roster with Narveson, someone is going to have to be odd man out, and it's probably going to be either Parra or Narveson.

Macha needs wins now, so he has no interest in whether or not his actions lead to injuries in the future. Yo has thrown more pitches than just about any pitcher in baseball, and we have some relievers who are used almost nightly while others never see the field. I'd guess that keeping Capuano on the shelf for two weeks and then probably throwing him out there for multiple innings won't be the best thing on his war-torn arm. Please note that I'm not insinuating that Macha wants his pitchers injured, just that his job is on the line, so every win this year is very important to him. The potential that Yo could be watching games with Mark Prior in a couple years isn't as much of a worry for him as he probably won't be the team's manager by then.

I guess I like Narveson's 7.29 k/9. The .954 OPS against vs. righties is pretty awful. I'd guess your scenario of Narveson to the bullpen is what's going to happen, or Macha will flip/flop Narveson, Bush and Parra based on match-ups. I had hoped that Davis would bring us something in trade, but with his terrible start followed by an injury that's kept him out for quite a while, I don't see him getting moved this season. A few of our potential trading chips got taken away from us due to injury or poor performance (Davis, Hoffman, Zaun, Coffey, Hawkins, Edmonds has had injuries, Gerut's been out forever, Inglett's sore foot makes him hard to trade and makes it hard to trade Counsell, as it would leave us without a backup SS unless we bring Cruz to the majors). Oh well, I guess that happens when you've got numerous guys in their mid-to-late 30's on the roster.

But often what you are getting more of is potential worth, not actual worth. So if you want to win, at some point you need to stick with a player. Otherwise you are constantly rebuilding; fielding teams that are "almost" good, but never "actually" good.To paraphrase Benjamin Graham, everything has a price and a value. If you can determine the value, and you can either buy at a price below the value or sell at a price higher than the value, you will end up with a better team (more value). Russ didn't say "continually trade MLB guys for AA guys," he said "trade him for more than you think he's worth." If the Rays said they would trade their MLB team for the Brewers' MLB team, wouldn't that be getting more value for our players than they are worth, while instantly becoming a much better team? That's a far-fetched example, but it if you get more in return than what you give up, you will go from "almost good" to "actually good," not the reverse. The problem is determining the value, which is what teams pay a legion of scouts and statisticians to determine. If you can buy a player for less than he's worth or sell a player for more than he's worth, then yes, it would be wise to do so.

Well, we're a week away from July and we're 9 games out of the division and 10 games out of the wild card with the 8th worst record in all of baseball. I think it's time we start to realize that even if we get hot, we aren't making the playoffs this season. When Melvin was on with Brian & Bill yesterday, he said that Davis was likely to be back in the rotation after his next AAA rehab start. That means either Narveson or Parra are likely to be demoted to bullpen duty. I think a big move for us would be to try to trade Dave Bush ASAP. He's been pitching well, so I'd think someone in need of a 4/5 starter would give us a prospect for him, freeing up some cash, a roster spot and a needed spot in the starting rotation. If the Cardinals are throwing Suppan out there every five days, someone would give us something for Bush. This move is more to make sure that Narveson and Parra stay in the rotation than it is a knock on Bush. We need to see what we have in Parra and Narveson, and throwing them in the bullpen won't help. Edmonds has an .810 OPS now, so I'm sure we could get something for him. In addition to whatever prospect we get, this would allow Gomez to play every day, which he needs to do so we can see if he should be our starting CF next season. It will also allow us to bring up someone like Katin to see how he looks against MLB pitching. As long as Edmonds is on the roster, he is going to start everyday against RH pitchers (around 80% of the total starts), and he is definitely not part of the future. Hoffman has looked better lately, so I'd probably see if anyone would give us anything for him, to allow us to keep all of our good, young bullpen arms around. As players get healthy, there's a chance we could lose some players who are out of options. I'd definitely let the world know that Fielder and Hart could be had for the right price, but that we aren't going to give them away. For a team in need of a bat, either of these two could bring back some decent prospects. If we don't get offered enough, we can move Fielder and possibly Hart in the offseason. Unless any of these moves would cost us a year of a prospect's service time, I'd start the selling process sooner rather than later. We may get more return by giving the buyer more time with the player, and we could get to the market before other sellers. If guys like Adrian Gonzalez end up on the market later, it will diminish the potential return for Fielder.

I wasn't sure if Cliff Lee would be on the market, but with Seattle at 29-41 and 13 games back, I'd be pretty surprised if he isn't traded. If rumors are correct (as they often aren't), Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren could be on the market as well. On the position player side, you've really got Dunn, Konerko and possibly Derrick Lee as the other "big bats" that could get traded. I heard rumor that the Nationals are trying to extend Dunn, which would be a good move on their part, and the Cubs' fan base would revolt if Lee was traded, so other than Konerko, there doesn't seem to be a lot of other supply on the market. The Wild Card has definitely helped anyone who wants to sell at the deadline, as there are very few sellers and a lot of buyers. You've got Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Houston, Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland and Seattle that are more than 10 games out of the Wild Card race. There will be trades of players like Akinori Iwamura, but if a team really wants to upgrade, there isn't much out there. If I had to guess, the Angels will make a run at Konerko, as they will have Morales back next year, so Prince's extra year wouldn't help them as much. I hope they go after him quickly, as they are in need, and that would take the only other big bat off the market. If there is anyone else out there looking to upgrade the offense, their first call should be to Doug Melvin. You may be right that the best offer will come this offseason, but maybe not. This offseason, teams might find it easier to sign Dunn, Lee, Konerko, Pena, Overbay or Berkman as free agents rather than trading for Fielder. All I want is for the Brewers / Melvin to get the best return. As I mentioned earlier, I just hope Melvin doesn't play through this season without even considering trading Fielder, as he may miss out on a good offer from a team desperate for a big bat for the playoff push.

I think the important point is that, regardless of position, if you are an "elite" player, you are extremely valuable and will get paid a boatload of money. I believe that if teams would be willing to pay $20+MM/year for your talent, they're willing to give up something in trade for your services, especially when they'd still have you for 1.5 years at a price below that $20MM/year level. Prince probably qualifies as an "elite" player, even though his numbers are a little down for the first 1/3 of this season. You are correct that the price goes up if demand exceeds supply and goes down if supply exceeds demand. I hope San Diego can keep it up to keep Gonzalez off the market, limiting supply. Pujols isn't going anywhere and Howard just re-signed, so Prince is the only really "elite" talent on the market right now, but guys like Konerko will muddle things up, with a team potentially settling for less of an upgrade for less cost. Really, Prince is probably the only elite / difference-making type talent that would be on the market at any position. Last year, in addition to Holliday, there was also Halladay and Lee. Off the top of my head, I can't think of too many other top-caliber players on the market. All it really takes is for one team to decide that Prince is the guy they want, and make a good offer for him. If that doesn't happen this season, wait until the offseason. All I hope for is that Melvin at least tests the water this season to see what offers are there. He can then decide if it's worth it.

Elite pitchers cost more than position players. That goes even more for position players who play easy defensive positions. I am not concerned with what CC actually did for us and you should know that by now. CC performed way beyond any reasonable expectations. Bringing in a pitcher allows you to replace your worst guy amongst a much larger group. If trading for Fielder would allow a team to replace even a poor hitting guy amongst several positions then he would have much more value. As it is, he has to play a position where you generally already have a pretty good hitter. I am shocked you value pitching so little. I think this is just another case of overvaluing our own players. Per Cot's list of the 28 highest value contract in the history of baseball, 6 went to pitchers, 22 went to position players. Six first basemen were on the list... as many 1B as pitchers. There are five LF on the list. It looks to me like the big bat is historically the most expensive commodity in baseball, regardless of position. Again, money is the only common denominator in baseball. Whether you get paid to throw the ball or hit the ball, you get paid in dollars. If a team is willing to give more money to a position player, why wouldn't they be more willing to pay more in terms of trade?

I'm not necessarily gun shy. It's just that a few months ago, I thought he wouldn't be worth the $7-8MM he'll probably get next year so I figured he'd be allowed to walk after the season and we wouldn't get any returns for him. Now, I wouldn't give him away, but I would trade him if someone will give something of value for him. The potential for him to be a Type A (or maybe B) FA if he stays hot this year and is decent next year adds to his value, as we could get draft picks for him as he leaves for FA. The fact that Hart could bring back as much return in draft picks as Fielder seems silly, but that's the way the system works. I'd gladly take the picks for Hart, while I would be upset if the Brewers settle for the draft picks for Fielder.

Whatever the eventual outcome, I think it's really important to play Gomez everyday from here on out. He either plays well, allowing us to cement him in as next year's CF or get more in trade for him, or he plays poorly, prompting us to supplant him with Cain next season. Giving Edmonds 4/5 of the starts in CF doesn't help make this decision. If Gomez plays to his potential, I don't hate the thought of playing Cain in RF for a season until some of our young corner OFs are MLB-ready. We could then flip Gomez for something of value and move Cain to CF. Sorry for going off topic

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle. I think we have to trade Fielder, as he's too good to let walk for draft picks. However, we could make a trade for someone like Dan Haren and sign someone like Adam Dunn or D. Lee to play 1B and probably be better than we are this year. We'll have a lot of money, so what we do over the next 8 months will be very important. With Hart, if we get a good offer, I'd take it. If not, and if we make some moves to have a decent team next year, I wouldn't mind holding him for the draft picks. My worry is that he has either been great or terrible, so there would be a good chance of paying him $7-8MM next year to be a .750 OPS bad fielding RF. If he continues his hot hitting, he's worth the $7-8MM he'll cost, and he'd potentially net us a 1st rounder, as two seasons of .900 OPS baseball would make him a Type A free agent. Also, Cain will be MLB-ready next year, so it becomes a decision between Hart and Gomez. If Gomez can't learn a better approach at the plate, it may be better to put Cain in CF next year and hold Hart to FA. If Gomez improves his approach, and we get a good offer for Hart, it may make sense to trade Hart and play Cain in RF next year. It's nice that Hart has played well enough that this becomes an issue. Prior to the season, I figured he'd be a platoon player this year and be let go for nothing after the season.

They also take three steps in the wrong direction due to misreading the ball off the bat, making it awful difficult to make the play. While corner OF is easier than SS, it's moving from the infield to the OF isn't as easy as a "defensive spectrum" chart may make it look. The Brewers as a team seem to take the Nintendo approach to moving players around, assuming that they can keep them at a difficult defensive position for their tenure in the minors and then move them where they want them without any growing pains. Addressing Hart's quote, I'd guess the "lazy" part comes in the offseason more than during the season. This past offseason, there was a story of Hart losing something like 30 pounds due to his rigorous offseason training routine. That could potentially be paying dividends, as could his decision to start wearing contact lenses so he can actually see the ball when he's at the plate, which could definitely make a difference in determining whether a pitch is a slider or a fastball. I certainly hope there is a permanent reason for his good offensive play this year, and it is not simply the pendulum swinging from "bad Hart" to "good Hart" before swinging back again.

I understand what you're saying. You're looking at the opportunity cost, which is important, but let's break it down to the one true common denominator, money. There are likely to be several teams lining up to pay Fielder over $20MM/year, so 1.5 years of his time is worth around $30-35MM on the open market. NY paid Sabathia somewhere around $23MM/year (which was much more than any other team was even considering), so .5 years of Sabathia was worth around $11.5MM on the open market. Since in the only true common denominator between a pitcher and a 1B, 1.5 years of Fielder is worth close to three times what 0.5 years of Sabathia is worth, I'd say that 1.5 years of Fielder is worth more than 0.5 years of Sabathia. Of course, it's not that simple. It is about needs matching up, and for some teams Fielder will be worth more than others. Also, for a team in the playoff hunt, wins this year become much more valuable than potential wins in the future. Finally, teams with bigger budgets can fill roster spots through free agency, making unproven prospects somewhat less valuable than proven MLB players. This is not to say that prospects aren't valuable, but I can't understand the sentiment around here that Fielder is basically worthless in trade, and suddenly unproven AA guys are the most valuable commodity in all of baseball. If Melvin decides to trade Fielder, he will get valuable pieces in return. Not as much as some are hoping for, but much more than others seem to believe. The big question is whether Melvin / Mark A will pull the trigger and trade their most marketable player. There's a lot to consider and it's not an easy decision to make. It is the type of decision that could cost the team dearly (and cost the GM his job) if the return in trade doesn't pan out. For instance, Melvin could trade him for two high upside guys and have neither of them ever reach the majors, having the trade go down on the "worst trades in history" list. That's probably the biggest reason I think they'll wait until the offseason even though their best return could come by trading him now. In the offseason, he will be able to get someone with MLB experience, reducing the risk of bust. As a fan, I don't have to worry about losing my job over this, so I can easily say that I think Fielder should be traded now, and if the Tampa rumor listed earlier is on the table, I'd make the deal in a heartbeat. I'd rather get high upside guys who are not yet in the majors than take a "safer" player who has "proven" himself on a MLB roster. If I actually had skin in the game, I may choose some element of safety, which would be more doable by waiting for the offseason.

This is pretty much the scenario I envisioned when Edmonds was signed. He's a toy Macha cannot help but play, so it seemed obvious he'd play nearly everyday. The good thing is that he has played well enough (.774 OPS) to garner interest from a contending team as veteran a LH bat off the bench / 4th OF. As long as his current injury isn't too serious, he should be pretty easy to trade, and I'd guess if he's healthy he'll be gone a month from now. Since they need a RH bat, I'd hope they add Katin to the roster and keep Cain getting everyday PT in the minors until September. Let Gomez play everyday to see what he can do in order to give us more clarity for our OF situation going into next season. Next year, Edmonds and Gerut are gone and Hart may or may not be traded. We need to know what we have in Gomez to determine if Cain will be our RF or CF. Gerut's foot has to heal eventually, so he can be the backup CF with Katin as 5th OF / RH bat off the bench. The other wrinkle is if that while everyone is talking about trading Hart this offseason, if we decide to hold onto Hart for next season, we may want to trade Gomez to make room for Cain. No team will give us much for him if he only plays 1-2 days a week for the remainder of the season. Either way, the sooner we realize we're not playing for this season anymore, the better for the team next year and beyond.

I understand the concept that Melvin preaches where "you get more for a pitcher during the season and more for a position player during the offseason." It's usually a bad idea to use an absolute (always, never, etc.) and I would be disappointed in Melvin if he didn't at least talk to other teams about Fielder. I am fully aware that there is a possibility that they will get more for Fielder during the offseason. However, no one knows what will be offered this season unless that opportunity is explored. If the offer isn't what you want, you wait until the offseason. I do know that 1.6 years of Fielder is greater than 1.0 years of Fielder, and playing on a team's desparation during a playoff push can have some value. I've said for a long time now that Tampa would be a good trading partner this season, as they can turn around and trade him to someone else this offseason if they don't feel he'll fit in next year's payroll. They've lost ground and are now trailing the Yankees by a half game and only a half game up on Boston. For all Tampa knows, Boston and New York will go on shopping sprees this offseason, and they may not be in this good of a situation next year. There's blood in the water and I hope Melvin smells it.

I'd love it if we could get a good young arm who could be in the rotation immediately and a potential ace currently in A ball. We know Melvin is high on Davis, so if Tampa is indeed willing to talk, it's at least feasible a trade between the Brewers and Tampa could happen. My worry is that Melvin will want to wait for the offseason to see what the market looks like, which will take Tampa off the list of potential suitors. I like Fielder as much as anyone, but the timing of Boras' $200 million dollar contract comment (right after Melvin/Attanasio said they wanted to discuss an extension) told me they are going to test free agency. At that point, it became 100% about getting the best possible return for Fielder.

It would be interesting to see if the percentages were different years back, "when strikeouts mattered." It would seem that HR% may actually go down with runners in scoring position when players shorten their swing to make contact and get the runner in as opposed to always swinging for the fences, no matter the situation. That theory would lead to a higher percentage of HR being multi-run shots, but an overall lower BA w/ RISP. Of course, when you have a flawed pool of data due to the steroids era, it's hard to figure what's true. The period where people stopped worrying so much about shortening their swing could likely correlate to free agency (hit more HR, get paid more), which unfortunately is probably around when steroids were making their way into the game.

I'll never listen to Bill & Brian again :-)

You're probably right about Smith, but that's just another cheap player that could help for a number of years that we're going to give away. He may not be a top talent, but in AAA this year he had 29 k and only 6 BB in 21 innings (I know, small sample) with 16 saves and a 1.71 ERA. He could definitely fit in as a middle reliever next year for $400k instead of going out and spending a couple of million dollars on a veteran player with similar talents. We're really stuck this season on 40-man space in part due to injuries, but also due to the fact that all of our "role players" are vets who can't be sent to the minors. Honestly, if there is any chance that Smith would be in our bullpen next year, I would much rather release Hoffman or give Bush away in trade (otherwise he'd stay in the rotation and Parra would be relegated to mop up duty) than simply DFA'ing Smith. But, I'm sure you are correct and that is the route we will go.

I feel bad for Katin. If he was around 20-30 years ago, he'd be a major leaguer in the Rob Deer mode. Never a superstar, but someone the fans love to watch. In today's game, if you don't take walks, you don't play in the majors unless you're from the Dominican Republic.

If Doug really wants to tick off the fanbase, he will trade Parra or Narveson to make room for Davis in the rotation. That would definitely tick me off. I think the more likely route would be to trade Dave Bush, who has pitched okay since his 1/3 inning, 7 run blow up. He is gone after this season and some team in need of a 4/5 starter may take him. I can't imagine we'd get much more than salary relief and a low-level minor leaguer, but that's more than we'll get when he walks after the season. I'd rather lose him than someone who may be able to help the team for the next few seasons. What I believe will happen (barring injury) is Braddock getting sent down and Parra getting moved back to the pen. That's not what I want to see, just what I think we'll see. Of course, I never would have guessed Heether would be thrown away, so I wouldn't be surprised by much of anything that happens.

I agree, but apparently Ken "Iron Fist" Macha won't do it. I really don't get Macha. He tramples on some players and bends over for others. Last year, he sat Braun a number of times late in the season when he was trying for 200 hits and to move up the "youngest player HR" list (not to mention his treatment of Gamel), but he wouldn't sit Kendall and won't sit Fielder. I promised myself I wouldn't go on anit-Macha rants, so I'll stop :-)