monty57

Yeah, I think that part of the reason there are more games off early in the season is to give SPs a break. So the Brewers' ingenious plan was to start Suppan in A ball with an "injury" while putting Parra and Narveson in the 'pen and giving more starts to the "Top 4." This doesn't account for how bad they've pitched, but it makes sense that Yo and Wolf are at the top of the league in pitches thrown. Now we've got a new "plan" to play matchups and swap starters in and out of the bullpen/starting rotation. I have very little hope that this will be successful.

I'd say the 10-games is about right. If 100% of bad luck went to a team, that would mean that every blown call would go against you and every ball hit down the line by the opposition would be a double, while every ball your team hit down the line went foul (as two quick examples). In that case, it would account for much more than 10 games one way or the other. If your "true" talent level is x, then I think it's pretty reasonable to believe that occurances throughout the year would justify that you'd win x 10. Before the season started, if you used Davis, Hawkins, Hoffman and Wolf's previous years to try to determine how they'd pitch this year (even regressing some for age), you'd have to think they'd have pitched much better than they have. The ungodly regression of some of our pitchers is far and away the reason we're playing so bad. Whether that's luck or not could be up to discussion. The fact that this is the second season in a row that our MLB staff has performed far below expectations would have me trying to find out if there was something more than luck involved.

So having completely new management and even new ownership makes no difference... it's the "Milwaukee Brewers" across the chest that guarantees failure? Under Selig and prior GMs, we had probably the worst franchise top-to-bottom in MLB. Dean Taylor started trying to build the farm, and hired Jack Z, and Melvin has turned us into a respectable franchise. But we started from zero. Sort of like it'd take longer for a kid who started out dirt poor to become a millionaire than it would take someone whose parents left him $1 million, it takes a long time to build a franchise from nothing to World Series contender. Under Taylor, Jack Z started by drafting bats, and continued doing so after Melvin took over. On the few instances where we drafted quality pitching, they generally haven't panned out. About two years ago, we seem to have made a decision as an organization to focus more on pitching. We have a lot of starting pitching at the lower levels. In fact, Appleton started the season with 10 starting pitchers on the roster! Our young SP are piggybacking, and being brought along slowly, but they are being brought along. It is far from unheard of for players to make the jump from AA to the majors, so we could start seeing these pitchers as soon as this year, and should definitely start seeing them flow in over the next few seasons. Remember, we don't need every one of these pitchers to pan out. In fact, we don't need most of them to pan out. If a few of them live up to their potential, we should have a good, homegrown pitching staff for years to come. I can be as cynical as anyone, and this year has me wondering why I spend my time paying attention to the Brewers, but I can't hold Bud Selig's lack of money and the subsequent downfall of the Brewers after the dawn of free agency against Eric Arnett or any of the other young pitchers in Mark Attanasio's Milwaukee Brewers.

As always I take the more pessimistic view. Until the Brewers create an actual pipeline to the majors they are going no where. Coupled with problems like Arnett and another hitch is put in the process. The Brewers are going to have to do a better job actually developing talent, and I'm not sure they are there yet. They seem pretty good at identifying talent, but that isn't gonna help if an organization can't turn that talent into something. Does anyone know Peterson's history with minor leaguers? Could it be that his approach of changing pitchers' mechanics has negative effects at first, but positive long-term effects? I don't know if this is the case, but it's possible that some of our young pitchers' slow starts could be due to the Brewers committment to Peterson's philosophy throughout the organization. ...not to mention the Reds out of nowhere staff. At the risk of sounding too much like TheCrew07, it didn't come out of nowhere, it is because the Reds made a decision several years ago to focus on drafting and developing quality pitching. The Brewers seem to have made that decision two years ago, as the last three drafts (including yesterday) have been very pitching heavy. If we can develop this pitching effectively, we should have a lot of good pitching coming up through the organization for quite a while. We're lucky all sorts of bad contracts are done after this year. I hope Melvin doesn't make a Suppan kind of mistake again. All of the extra money we will have is a big reason why I don't think we will have an extended rebuilding period. To Melvin's credit, while he has been adding "average" veteran arms in Looper and Davis in recent years, he seems to have learned a lesson from the Suppan deal, as he has signed them to one-year-plus-option contracts so we wouldn't be stuck with them if they bomb. The only longer term deal was a three year deal to Wolf, who is much more talented than Suppan, Looper or Davis.

Many of the arguements put forth here are more fuel for my belief that management needs to determine very quickly that we are sellers this year and start focusing on the future rather than gaining an extra few wins this season. -How will the offense perform without Fielder? We honestly don't know, but the more PAs we get without him, the better we'll find out, and if we don't trade him until next offseason, we'll have no idea how it will work until the games really matter. If we trade Fielder this season, we will be able to see how the offense works with Gamel/McGehee at 1B/3B. I know it's small sample, but if it completely bombs, we should make an effort to get a Dunn/Lee type player in the offseason to pick up the slack. -Will we get someone for Fielder who will be in the rotation next season? Again, if we trade him sooner rather than later, we'll get more value for him. 1.6 years of him is greater than 1.0 years of him. As long as we're looking for minor leaguers and not people currently on an MLB roster, by trading him in late June/early July, we should be able to get better return and have them in our system sooner so that we can see if they'll be ready for the 2011 rotation. -The same holds true for RF. If we are going to trade Hart, do it now when his value has gone back up, and give Cain more experience at the MLB level. -What do we have in our pitchers going into next season? In my opinion, this needs to be a major focus of the team. Bush starting vs. Parra starting may or may not be better for this season. However, Bush is gone after this season, while Parra is around for a few more years, and could (if he puts it all together) be a big answer to our starting pitching woes. Give starts to players who may have some impact on future Brewers teams. Right now, that's Yo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson and Capuano. It may also include someone like Loe and later in the season could well mean calling up a prospect like Rivas, Rogers or Jones. If someone like Rivas is going to be in next year's rotation, I'd much rather he get some starts for the Brewers this year when the games don't matter. Plus, from a PR perspective, we might sell some tickets to see "the first of our big wave of good, young starting pitching," much like Weeks, Fielder, etc sold tickets when they were first called up. No one is going to buy a ticket just to see Dave Bush pitch, even if he is currently better than the youngster. -Let the youngsters play. Someone earlier mentioned that we don't know what we really have with some of our young players, so we need them to get as many PAs this year as possible. Escobar is getting a good share of the playing time at SS, but now that Hart is hot, Gomez is splitting time with Edmonds when Edmonds is not a part of the future of this team. Meanwhile, Lucroy is getting about one start a week. I like Kottaras, and he's part of the future as well, but either we need to bring up a scrub backup and let Lucroy play at AAA (which would mean adding someone to our already crowded 40-man), or we need to split the time more evenly at the MLB level between Kottaras and Lucroy. -To some extent, I think they already started a youth movement in the bullpen through their use of Axford and Braddock, but that could just have been done out of necessity due to injury and Hoffman's performance. I think Axford needs to remain the closer unless he proves he doesn't deserve it. I like Hoffman, and wish things had turned out differently so he could get his 600 saves, but the Brewers need to think of the team first, and having Axford continue to gain experience as the closer will help them for a long time, and probably save them millions of dollars they otherwise have been handing to "proven closers."

So basically Hawkins becomes our new Riske. I hope Riske can pitch like we hoped for when he was signed. It's not his fault he got injured, so hopefully he can earn some of his salary during the rest of the year. I really didn't anticipate Hawkins going to the 60-day DL (I thought it would be Zaun). Hawkins' arm problems must be much worse than the "dead arm" he was first diagnosed with. Didn't the trainers say they couldn't find anything wrong with him?

I'm with you chadomac. We have a lot of money coming off the books, a lot of young, cheap talent, and some good trading chips. If we can find one top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Yo & Wolf, all of a sudden we have a decent rotation, especially if Parra gets it together and some of our minor leaguers start to come of age. With our excess money, we could take a shot at Cliff Lee in free agency. Or, if we don't want to go that route, we could trade for a high priced pitcher with some years left, such as Dan Haren (being discussed in Trade Forums). Finally, we have Prince and to a lesser degree Hart who could be traded for young pitching. Prior posts bring up Prince's effect on the rest of the lineup, and that is something which would be missed, but the same thing happens if we could add one more good pitcher, particularly one who can pitch deep into a game on a regular basis. Prince's position could be filled from within by someone like Gamel, or we could go out and sign someone like Adam Dunn or Derrick Lee to a 1-2 year contract, which would be much cheaper than trying to buy a #1 starter on the FA market. The dropoff from Prince to Dunn, Lee or even Gamel is less than the upgrade we'd get by replacing our current mish-mash of #5 starters to a true #1/2 starter. Add on that putting Lo Cain in RF and Lee at 1b would probably decrease our team ERA significantly vs Hart & Fielder, and it would be even more palatable. It's not easy to find a #1/2 starter, but we have multiple ways of going about doing it, so hopefully Melvin will pull the trigger and use some of his free cash flow and take a shot at a difference making type pitcher rather than an innings-eater.

Nelson has to be the guy they're planning on fast-tracking to get to the big leagues. Announcers on MLB.com call Nelson a mid-to-back end of the rotation guy who won't light up the radar but will give you 200 innings. Gets a lot of ground balls.

Funny, Suppan was the first person I thought of when the announcers said "a mid-to-back end of the rotation guy who won't light up the radar but will give you 200 innings."

We're in the perfect storm for signing someone like Allie or Cole. We have a desparate need for SP, we have about $40-50MM coming off the MLB payroll after this season, and we don't have any extra picks to worry about signing. Fingers crossed that some "signability" player falls to the Brewers and they pull the trigger.

To be fair, the fans were pretty ruthless to him this year, so it may be difficult for him to "thank the fans." Even "wishing them his best" is classier than many players would be given the situation. Not saying the boos weren't justified, but the fans weren't entitled to a "thanks."

it's all about needs matching up. Exactly. It's the same any time a transaction is being made. If two sides each have something the other desires, a deal can be made. The Brewers need to find a team in the playoff hunt that has some pitching prospects and wants to increase their offense for a playoff push. If the Brewers decide it's time to move Prince, would a deal involving Haren make sense? No, because the Diamondbacks wouldn't be trading Haren unless they're ready to go on a youth movement. They'll want young players/prospects for Haren. That doesn't mean the Brewers couldn't make a push for him, but that depends on the Brewers' plans and how much it would cost them in prospects. If the Brewers think they can be a competative team over the next few seasons, we could offer up some of our prospects for Haren. Three years / $40MM is probably cheaper than the Brewers would be able to find a top of the rotation starter in FA, and the Brewers will have money after this season. Maybe we trade an advanced bat (Gamel/Salome) and one or two of our A/AA pitchers for Haren and then trade Fielder for a young pitcher and a young hitter. Sign someone like Dunn or Lee to play 1B next year, and we could be a better overall team without a big rebuilding period. Yo, Wolf and Haren would make a pretty good top of a rotation.

Well, Smith can't possibly be worse than Suppan. Plus, it gives us more flexibility to option players to/from AAA as injured players heal up or the bullpen gets taxed. Not to mention, the fans need something to rejoice about with the dismal way the team's playing. Sad that it has to come at the expense of a seemingly "good guy," but it's the fans' money that keeps the team going, and Suppan was the focus of a lot of fan anger.

Well, I called Suppan for Chris Smith... I was just a couple weeks off. I think this was a move that needed to be made, not just from a talent standpoint, but also Suppan being released can help appease the fan base. I agree that Zaun will be moved to the 60-day DL to make room for Riske. At least we'll have a little more 40-man flexibility now. Smith will likely be around until either Cofffey, Davis or Hawkins are ready to come off the DL.

Can anyone tell me how this will help this team either in the short or long term? We will have a bunch of guys who are used to a strict routine now wondering when and if they will pitch again. The bullpen will be ruined, as we will always have 2 or 3 guys who may need to start so they can't be used as needed, not to mention that none of the pitchers will ever get fully stretched out to make 7-9 inning starts. I guess anyone who has been enthralled by Melvin's talk of "piggybacking" pitchers should be happy. We're about to see a version of it in action. Go with Yo, Wolf and then a group of Narveson, Bush, Parra, Capuano, Loe, Estrada, Suppan, and Davis who could all start at any time or come in for 3-5 innings of relief. Sort of like hitting the "shuffle" button on a CD player, only without the chance of occasionally having a good result. I'm for looking to the future. Just set a rotation of Yo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson and Capuano... all pitchers who could be on the team past this season. Bush should be out of the rotation, as he's gone next year and isn't pitching well. Deal with Davis when he's healthy.

The whole compensation thing seems to have backfired. It originally was supposed to help small market teams who lost big named FAs to bigger markets. Instead, the smaller markets trade the FAs to bigger markets and the big market teams get the compensation. I also dislike the fact some picks just come out of thin air. If Team A & B are involved with a player, Team A loses him and Team B gets him, I really don't have a problem with Team B giving up a draft pick to Team A as compensation, but the "sandwich picks" hurt the rest of the teams in the draft, as they get pushed back a draft slot. It would be better if the supplemental picks just went away. Let Pittsburgh get the 2nd pick after round 1 is over, not the second pick after round 1 & supplemental round are over.

Why, so he can sit on the bench with Lucroy? Let him play in AAA.What's sad is that the only position players on the 40-man that are not on the 25-man are Salome, Luis Cruz, Mat Gamel and Lo Cain. I'm with Craigharmann that I don't want to see Gamel or Cain brought up to sit the bench. Salome is not coming to the Brewers anytime soon, so the only option I wouldn't be upset with is Cruz, who is useless with the bat, and unnecessary with Escobar, Counsell and Inglett who can all play SS. Heether might be a nice RH bat to bring up... oh, wait he's not here anymore. Of course, on the pitching side, we have Butler, Rivas, Periard, Rogers and Scarpetta on the 40-man. The only one with a chance of helping at the MLB level this year (at least until we get into sell mode) is Butler, so our only real 40-man flexibility on the pitching side is Stetter. The corresponding move to Riske coming off the DL will probably be Zaun going to the 60-day DL, and Riske will replace Coffey on the 25-man. Sad as it is to say, with Stern and Heether off the 40-man, I think Suppan is here for a while... at least until some of the injuries start to heal and we need 25-man space. Suppan could go away when Davis, Coffey or Hawkins comes off the DL. At that time, I'd hope Melvin would go for more 40-man flexibility, adding someone from AAA (maybe an older prospect like Chris Smith on the pitching side or Drew Anderson/Brendan Katin on the hitting side) to the 40-man.

I was just trying to illustrate that every year teams give up prospects to get high-caliber MLB talent for the pennant race. We aren't going to get someone who's already in a rotation, but we could get some good talent in return for Fielder. The thought that we're only going to get AAAA fodder for someone who's been in the top three in MVP voting twice and still has 1.5 years of control is a little pessimistic.

Well, for a couple of months of Matt Holliday, the Cardinals gave up possibly their top prospect in Brett Wallace (now somehow in Toronto's organization), a near-MLB-ready pitcher who the A's will have for six years in Clayton Mortensen (7-2 4.30 ERA, 49 K, 25 BB in AAA) and former second round pick with a penchant for getting on base CF Shane Peterson. I don't think it's asking too much to think that a team would give up some of their top prospects for a year and a half of Fielder.

From Macha's tidbits, it's about lining up the starting rotation. Probably just determining who of Parra, Narveson, Bush, Loe, Capuano, etc get to fill out the rotation behind Yo & Wolf for the foreseeable future. It would be nice to get some exciting news, but I doubt it.

Or they'll put Zaun on the 60-day, or they'll try to "sneak" Cruz or Stetter through waivers. This season is making me pretty cynical.

I personally don't know that psychology can be measured statistically, otherwise psychiatrists would use more stastics. To me, it doesn't seem like an exact science, but it's out of my area of expertise. I guess if every manager and player would undergo thorough psycological examination and was then correctly (with a defined margin for error) classified into Type A, Type B, etc. Then, those findings were dispersed to a statistician, said statistician could run the numbers to figure out what classifications of players/coaches have generated the most wins and calculate if there is any determinable pattern. First, I don't see this happening. More importantly, psychological exams are far from exact and can't be determined with a defined margin for error, so it will have to be denoted as "unquantifiable," which will either drive a stat-minded person insane or cause them to believe it doesn't exist.

I'm pretty sure everyone knows what the problem is. I'm beginning to believe that should be what the problem "was." The pitching has been bad all season, but the bad play has spread like a virus. During the first 30 games, the Brewers were scoring 5.77 runs/game. During the last 25, they're scoring 3.92. There's probably some selective statistics going on, as I cut it off at the 17-3 win at Arizona, but still, the offense is scoring almost 2 less runs / game over the past month, so it's not just the pitching anymore. In any field, if you have a group of people who have been good at their job, and someone is brought in to oversee them and suddenly they all start performing at a lower level, the blame gets directed at the person managing them. When other people are brought in who have traditionally been good and they perform worse than they ever have, you really have to start thinking that the manager has some culpability. I don't care if it's a sales manager, shop foreman, CEO or baseball manager, when the team is performing below its talent level for an extended period, the manager has to go. edit: for the record, the NL average is 4.38 runs/game

They have the potential to be explosive, but they are not at all consistent. In just over one out of every five games, they either get shut out (6 times) or score 10+ runs (6 times). While they're scoring 4.90 runs/game this season, in their last 25 games (since the 17 run win agasint Arizona) they're scoring 3.92 runs/game. They're 8-17 in that stretch. Their pitching is terrible, but their offense hsan't been stellar lately either. I try to be positive, but this team is making it difficult. So What Now? If we aren't looking to the future now, then we never will be. I've heard Macha several times mention this "pow-wow" with Melvin and Ash to line up the pitchers, and Macha really seems to be out of the loop as to what's going on. I'd like to think there are going to be some major changes, but I'm not sure what. I don't see them cutting any pitchers other than maybe Suppan (whose ERA is now near 8 after tonight's game). Yo & Wolf will be in the rotation, and I'm beginning to think the Parra-for-Bush swap may have occurred after a phone call from Melvin to Macha, which may mean Bush is going to be in the pen and Parra's going to get his chance to sink or swim. Loe's been a breath of fresh air, but I don't see them putting him in the rotation over Capuano or Narveson. I'd guess not much will happen that will make anyone too excited. Maybe in a month or so we'll decide we're sellers and we'll see some trades, but until then, it's probably what-you-see-is-what-you-get.

Plus aren't we going to need to trade a left-handed starter or two, they surely are not going to go with Wolf, Parra, Narveson, Capuano, (or Davis), and Gallardo next year are they? So maybe "showcasing" these lefthanders could also be related to that. Good point. I had hoped Bush would continue his decent start and Davis would start pitching well, allowing us to trade them this season, but that dream is shot. Now I hope we are able to find a good RH starter, either through trade or FA (we'll have around $40MM to spend) to fit in. I think the only sure things next year are Yo and Wolf, and a strong showing by Capuano would throw an unlikely wrinkle in things. I think there's a good possibility a prospect like Rivas is in the rotation to start next year. This is why I think it's important to let Parra and Narveson get a good look this season to see what we have in them. On topic, that's why I said Bush should've been taken out of the rotation instead of Parra in the first place, so I'm not upset that Parra's replacing him now... I just think there's probably a more tactful way Macha could handle things. Really, if we could somehow find a #1/2 starter to fit in with Yo, making Wolf #3, we'd be fine with a combination of Parra/Narveson/Capuano/prospects filling out the 4/5. The monumental problem will be in finding this #1/2. I don't know that Fielder will get us someone who will be ready to step into that role next year, but he is one possible option for acquiring it. Right now, most of our players (major and minor league) should be made available to trade for that very important piece. If we can't do that, we'll probably make a big push at someone like Cliff Lee next offseason (assuming Fielder doesn't sign).