monty57

Of course, what's forgotten is that the comp picks have to be figured into the trade. Anyone trading for Fielder would get 1.5 years of a very good bat along with two comp picks, so the offer would (at a minimum) have to be better than two comp picks. As far as "excess value," that's probably more of a worry in offseason trades than mid-season trades. If you are shooting for the playoffs, and you have a 1B with "x" value, and you have the opportunity to acquire a 1B with "2x" value without giving up anyone currently on your MLB roster (aka MiLB pitcher), you will increase your team's overall talent and therefore your chances of the playoffs. If you have the money to make the deal, you don't care about "excess value" in terms of his contract, you care about increasing your team's overall talent and chance for the playoffs. I think there is one school that's too high on the return for Fielder, and one school that is far too low on his value. He will very likely net more than a potential 3/4 AAA starter. If we were in the playoff hunt, would you think Kameron Loe (or some other average talent) would net someone like Prince Fielder? To get 1/2 season of Sabathia, we had to give up a former Top 10 overall pick, a near-MLB ready OF and Cleveland's choice of three of our better prospects. Lyle Overbay netted us two "potential 3/4 AAA starters" in Bush and Jackson and Fielder is much better than Overbay. If we trade Fielder soon, we will get a pretty good return for him.

"I've seen a lot of things I've never seen before," added Bush. Just another sign that the players on this team love Macha. I recently said in another post that Bush should be the one taken out of the rotation because he isn't pitching well and won't be around next season, and Parra should be put into the rotation without the stigma of "pitch well this outing or get demoted." However, there are much better ways of going about things than this. If Macha was going to put Bush in the pen, then he should have done it when Capuano was put on the roster and told him it's permanent. Don't put Parra in the pen, and then change your mind after Bush throws a quality start, and then tell the JS "Bush'll probably be back in the rotation against the Cubs." Now Parra's going to go into his start feeling he has to be perfect, and with his weak mental make-up that'll spell disaster, which will give Macha everything he needs to put the one pitcher on our team with "true #1 stuff" in the long man role permanently. This team is just a mess, and I think that probably has a lot to do with why everyone other than Hart are playing so far below their talent level. Macha's acknowledgement that he finally sat down for 15 minutes with his players "to get to know them" earlier this season (not last year), and seemed genuinely surprised to learn what kind of person Braun was, should have been a clue that he really doesn't know what's going on with "his" team. The sooner this clown is gone, the better. ...and this comes after he makes a move I was condoning a few days ago :-)

I figured Heether was in someone's doghouse last year when he hit .902 at Nashville and wasn't called up when we had injuries at 2B/3B. Then Inglett was signed this offseason (and Counsell re-signed) to fill the role that would've been Heether's. I would've liked to have seen him given a shot, especially if it would've meant us holding on to Cole Gillespie. I don't know if this was more Melvin wanting to hold onto Suppan or his dislike of Heether, but I'd say he shouldn't have been the one waived.

It must be Melvin's long-known strategy of favoring defense over offense.

There's a good chance that he'll fall off a cliff and hit for a .650 OPS the rest of the season. I don't think there's a good chance that happens. I think it's a possibility, but a pretty extreme one. Especially if Macha uses Hart well when he inevitably cools off, there is almost no chance that will happen. I was being extreme, and shouldn't have said good chance, but in 2008: Pre-All Star .831 OPS Post-All Star .659 OPS 2009 month-by-month April .873 May .626 June .785 July .831 August .250 Sept .660 Hopefully he'd be more like 2007: Pre-All Star .876 Post-All Star .906 He's always been hot & cold. Our risk of trading him is that he's finally "found it," and has become the player many thought he would be, as we will not get equivalent return for him if we trade him now. Our risk of keeping him is that he'll have another cold second half and we won't get any offers for him in the offseason, forcing Melvin to not offer arby and we get nothing for him. An extremely high upside/lowdownside player is tough to plan for, so I'd say selling high would be a good option.

That pretty much makes me sick. At least with another team Heether will actually be given a shot at the major league level, which the Brewers never seemed willing to give him.

Actually, I don't remember them trading many vets for prospects in the recent past, and I wish they'd start doing it in years where they aren't in the playoff hunt. They blew their chance last year, so I hope they realize this season they're not a playoff team. I'm for locking up young "core" players like we did with Braun and Yo, and hopefully will continue to do in the future with our best young players (Lucroy, Escobar, Lawrie, whatever pitchers prove their worth, etc). As we found with Hall and almost with Hart, you shouldn't offer these contracts to fringe players. Hart is way too much of an all-or-nothing guy for me, which is an upgrade to what I thought of him before the season. There's a good chance that he'll fall off a cliff and hit for a .650 OPS the rest of the season. Since we're not in the playoff hunt, I think that if his recent power surge has upped his trade value, we should take advantage of that and bring Cain up to "get acclimated" this season so he's ready next year when the games will once again matter. So, I'm happy Hart is doing well. He seems like a good guy and I'm glad for him that he's playing better. But, at the heart of it all (no pun intended), I want what's best for the Brewers' franchise, so I'm mostly happy that this hot start may mean a better future return for the Brewers.

It's wonderful that Corey's doing far better than I expected. As far as whether he'll fall from glory, it's impossible to say. However, remember that he was an All Star due to his hot start in 2008, before falling into the worst slump I've ever seen leading into the playoff push. He even had some decent stretches last season peppered into a bad overall season. As for a trade, I hope Doug can get it done. The fact that he still has one more year of arbitration could help get a little more in return, but I still don't want the Brewers to take the risk on having to pay $8MM to the 2009 version of Hart. Let the Lo Cain era begin.

One of the main reasons I think a mid-season deal would bring more in return is the crunch teams will feel. If Prince is on, he will make any team's offense better. If a team is in the playoff hunt, Prince could very well be the piece that pushes them over the edge. Melvin needs to get a bidding war going, such as Boston vs Tampa. If Tampa gets Prince early on this season, they could greatly increase their chance of pushing Boston out of the playoffs, and then they could flip Prince next offseason. Boston doesn't want to watch Tampa and the Yankees in the playoffs, so they may be willing to up the ante to at the very least make Tampa overpay for Fielder. Throw in that Gonzalez will be out of the picture if San Diego continues to play well, Howard signed long-term and Pujols isn't going anywhere, and the supply of big bats on the market (the kind that can make a difference a la Holliday last season) gets pretty thin. I hope Melvin targets a couple of really good AA arms in a trade rather than someone already on a MLB roster. During the season, a playoff hopeful team may be more willing to trade a pitcher who is not going to help them in their playoff hunt for a piece (Fielder) who will help them to the playoffs. I don't know what Fielder will eventually bring in trade, but it makes sense to me that trading him late June / early July should bring back the best return. I know Melvin's credo is "you get more for a pitcher during the season and a position player during the offseason," but that can't be an absolute. As far as the Brewers waiting and taking the draft picks, ask Washington how that worked for Soriano. The team (and their GM) were lambasted by fans and media alike for that move. Unless Fielder is an integral part of our making the playoffs next year, Brewers fans would boycott the team if Fielder walks without being traded. Endaround, I agree that Hart should be shopped as well. He has greatly increased his trade value, and I hope the Brewers can capitalize on that.

Which also means that the Brewers would likely get a lot less by waiting for the offseason to trade him rather than trading him now. Barring major injury, Boras will not lower his expectations from what he'd want from the Brewers for an extension. The only thing that would make him accept less would be going on the open market and not getting the bids he'd like. To me, Prince's season is showing that the Brewers' offense will be fine with someone else at 1B. In 2009, 19 of the 22 (86.36%) qualified 1B (min 500 PA) had an OPS of .842 or higher. We should be able to find someone who can put up decent numbers. The greatest value Prince can provide to this team is by bringing us pitching back in a trade.

I'm just worried that Gomez, Inglett, Gerut and Edmonds have already been injured or are currently injured and Braun is always a risk with his ribs/back. I just don't want to see the Brewers bring Cain up to have him sit the bench. If he's brought up to start full time, I'm fine with it, but not to waste away on the bench. I'm sick of that happening to our top positional prospects. As far as Stern goes, I'm more upset that Suppan wasn't the one cut. Even though he could be a MLB 5th OF, when Stern was called up I figured he'd be DFA'd at some point to clear space. Personally, I would rather have made sure Inglett, Gerut and Edmonds were healthy before cutting Stern and that could easily have been done by cutting Suppan now and waiting until Riske is ready to DFA Stern. As it stands right now (with Inglett and Gerut injured), if one of our OFs gets banged up, Cain will have to be called up.

Stern had a 1.094 OPS this spring and nearly made the 25-man out of ST. He then OPS'd .806 in Nashville. He's not a world-beater, but he's not a complete no-talent bum, and he did provide something as OF insurance. I said when he got called up that he was probably a guy the Brewers wouldn't mind losing if they had to DFA him, but as TheCrew07 mentioned, this now leaves us one Edmonds muscle pull away from seeing Cain get called up to ride the pine. We cannot continue to waste our top prospects like that. The worst thing abouth this is that it is all done to save Suppan, who is one of the biggest sources of fan frustration. Fans get angry every time he is called upon to pitch. If Melvin wants to do something to make it at least appear that he's trying to help the team and that this isn't "the same old Brewers," he'd cut Suppan. The cheer from Milwaukee when/if that day finally comes will be deafening. It may not do much to help the team this season (nothing will), but we need to do something to enliven the fans, or we're going to see a mutiny.

I agree with this. I would move Narveson back to the pen and have Parra start in his spot.Since we have control of Narveson and Parra beyond this season, I'd move Bush to the 'pen. Yo, Wolf, Capuano, Narveson, Parra and I don't care if it's four lefties. The biggest reason I wanted to keep Bush in the rotation was for the pipe dream that his numbers would be good enough that a playoff hopeful team in need of a 4/5 starter would trade for him. With his last few outings, I doubt that will be the case now. I'm all for using the rest of this season to prepare for the future. Prince should be traded when we will get the most value for him, even if it means we trade him late June/early July rather than waiting for the deadline. Most of our other possible trading chips are now worthless (Zaun, Davis, Bush, Hoffman), but I would capitalize on Hart's hot start and trade him away this season as well. Many on this board have been lamenting not trading him when his value was high, well, it's high again. Let's see if we can turn this hot start into some young talent. If Edmonds can get hot again, we could possibly trade him for something, as I'd guess Macha will have him starting most days in CF and since I want this year used to build for the future, Gomez needs as much PT as he can get. My worry is that what I want and what Macha needs to do are two separate paths. I want everything this season to be focusing on the future, while Macha needs wins this season if he wants any chance of saving his job. I hope Gomez plays full-time, but I'd bet Edmonds will start at least half the games in CF now that he's off the DL. I want Bush in the pen, but Parra is going there instead. I want Axford to continue to close unless he falls apart, but we'll see Hoffman closing again soon. If Hart gets traded, I'd want to see Cain up and playing every day, but I'd guess Edmonds would play everyday. I like Kottaras, but now that Zaun is out for a long period, I hope Lucroy starts 2/5 of the games and eventually gets to 50/50, as he could get "Gamelized" if he continues to sit 80% of the time.

From the previously linked Tom H. article: Melvin did say he has some upcoming decisions on pitchers. Reliever David Riske has just over a week remaining on his 30-day minor-league rehab assignment. In four outings since moving up to Nashville, Riske has allowed no runs in five innings, with two hits, no walks and four strikeouts. At some point, left-hander Doug Davis is expected to return after being sidelined with inflammation of the heart lining. And Melvin said Manny Parra could get more starts at some point. “We’ll see who steps up and who doesn’t,” said Melvin. “When guys get opportunities, we’ll see who takes charge.” Not to start another "Fire Macha" or "Fire Melvin" thread, but who is setting the rotation, Melvin or Macha? That said, we do have a lot of changes ahead due to limited 40-man space. I really hope the Brewers decide to look to the future with this season. We really don't have a good shot at the playoffs, so we should do as much this year to rid ourselves of players who aren't going to be part of the future while showcasing young players who may play roles on future Brewers teams. Dropping Suppan and Vargas for Loe and Capuano would slightly signify they are heading down that road. Keeping Axford closing is another good sign. It will be interesting to see where things go from here.

Bringing Loe up is the right call, as he's probably better than Suppan. Since we're going to lose someone, it might as well be the less talented pitcher. I'm with TheCrew07 regarding Parra. Next year, Bush will be gone and we will once again be questioning what we have in Manny Parra and whether or not he should be in the rotation. What better time than now to tell Parra that barring injury he is going to be the starter for an extended period. If his problems are confidence related, then having him worry about getting yanked if he doesn't perform is the worst possible situation. As for stuff, at what point do results trump stuff? I agree results are the bottom line, but when you have two pitchers of similar age who have both put up less-than-stellar numbers in limited opportunities, I would back the guy who has the stuff to potentially dominate if he puts it together rather than the guy who has the potential to be less-than-stellar. If we were talking about a significant difference in results, I'd be with you, but when the difference is miniscule, I'll definitely go with the guy with the dominant "stuff." Apparently, the point is moot, as both will be in the bullpen. In my opinion, Bush should be the one going to the pen, as he's not pitching well and he has no future with the team. Other than being right-handed, he really doesn't have any reason to be in the rotation ahead of Parra. But then again, Macha has no reason to look beyond this year. He has to feel that he's gone unless the team really turns things around, so he will do anything to eke out more wins this season, and Bush is probably less risky (with less potential reward) than Parra.

I don't have a great knowledge of the farm system, but isn't there a right handed hitting outfielder in AAA the Brewers could call up instead so the bench isn't so left handed dominant? I've always liked RF Brendan Katin, but I believe he's hurt (or at least has been hurt this season - only 27 ABs so far), and his lack of plate discipline has kept him from being called up in the past. Norris Hopper is a lead-off type guy who I believe we brought over from the Reds. He's got a .273 avg / .320 OBP /.304 SLG / .624 OPS line right now, so he's probably not the best option. Everyone else in AAA (Drew Anderson, Trent Oeltjen, Adam Stern and Josh Anderson) is left handed. In my opinion, right-haded Lorenzo Cain is going to be playing for the Brewers either this season or next, and he's at AA. If not for injuries, Cain would probably be our starting CF this season, and the Gomez acquisition probably wouldn't have happened. He's currently hitting for a line of .348 avg / .443 OBP / .482 SLG / .925 OPS but I'd guess the Brewers' brass wants to keep him playing everyday, as he's a much bigger part of the future than Adam Stern.

While I'm sure he'd like the stays to be longer, I'd bet Stern is happy to spend any time in the bigs he can get. I wondered how long the Brewers would go with basically Counsell and the backup catcher as their bench.

And Jack Z won while with the Brewers, making him the only non-GM to win that award. Of course, in this thread Melvin has been chided for not firing Jack Z due to his inability to draft pitchers. Look, being a GM is an inexact science. Sometimes you make the "right" move and it fails, and sometimes you make the "wrong" move and it pays off. Most here were laughing at the Cubs for trading Bradley for Silva (even though Bradley was kicked off the team last year). Now Jack Z looks foolish for the move. I am happy for Tampa, as they are the ray of light (no pun intended) that can keep one of the Yankees/Red Sox combo out of the playoffs. It is good that they really haven't failed on any of their "high ceiling" pitching prospects. That's basically what made Billy Beane a household name. He had three really good pitchers that all pitched to their vast potential and avoided injury and they carried him to a number of division titles. Melvin has swung and missed on almost all of his "high ceiling" pitching prospects. Maybe that is enough to fire him, but I don't think it's correct to say he's never tried bringing any in. Other than Sexson, the chips he's traded away really haven't been "blue chip," and if any one of a long list of pitchers that Melvin has brought in had reached their potential, we wouldn't be having this conversation. I'll be brushed aside as whining about Melvin's bad luck, but it really seems to be a large part of what's happened. He's had tremendous "luck" in having a good share of his hitters pan out and he's had horrendous "luck" with his pitchers. Again, I see the addition of Peterson as a step in addressing that "bad luck," and hopefully he pays dividends. As far as learning a lesson, it appears Melvin has decided that since so few of his young SPs pan out, he's going to amass a horde of "high ceiling" arms and a few of them will have to make it.

Of course, if that happens we'd probably trade Brett Lawrie and Jon Lucroy for Cliff Lee. Sorry, I'll stay optimistic :-) MJLiveRock, thanks for the link. It makes me feel better about Davis's health, and you're probably right that it shouldn't have had much effect on his performance year-to-date, although I have no idea. Anything causing sharp pains in the heart seems scary to me. JohnBriggs, we're already in a numbers crunch, and dumping Suppan/Vargas would simply buy us a few more weeks, while upgrading the talent level of our major league team. We'd simply be divesting ourselves of the worse talent while keeping the better, as we're probably losing two pitchers either way. If he continues to struggle, Bush could be another candidate for a DFA. Agreed. Really, I've been hoping he'd pitch better simply so that we could trade him to a team in need of pitching. After the 1/3-inning start, I don't see that happening.

In looking at the players on this team, I find it hard to believe that we are really a 64-98 team, which is the level we've been playing at so far this year. As we've seen the past few seasons, a baseball season is a long one with lots of high and lows. We've had a big "low" to start the season, and I have a feeling we're ready to start an upswing. I don't have a lot to base this on, but off the top of my head here are a few positives I see: -Wolf had a good outing last night, hitting 91-92 on the radar gun when necessary and pitching seven shutout innings. He said in an interview after his "I Stink" comment, that he was getting his mechanics back on track and was nearly ready to put it all together. If we can get a starter that can (on a semi-regular basis) put together 7-8 inning outings, it will really help by (A) winning games and (B) saving our bullpen -Davis has been diagnosed. His pitching so far this season has likely been adversely affected by his weakened heart. For the short term, we have Parra/Estrada who are pitching better than the injured Davis had been pitching. Hopefully later in the season Davis will be back pitching like he has been the past few seasons. Due to the diagnosis, I can't hold anything against Davis, but we should have a better starting rotation now. -Our bullpen has been strengthened by the additions of the AAA guys. We also have flexibility to call people up/send people down when the bullpen has been overworked. We should also get the "upper-90's fastball" version of Hawkins back after 15 days of resting of his arm. -We lose Loe and Capuano if they are not on the MLB roster soon. I could see us finally cutting ties with Suppan and possibly Vargas in order to hold on to Capuano and Loe, which could upgrade two pitching spots. Both have pitched well in the minors, with Capuano really impressing. One of these two could possibly even push Bush out of the rotation. -Our offense has been strong in large part without Fielder ever getting "hot." He's due to break out soon. Really, McGehee, Hart and possibly Gomez are the only ones who are really outperforming pre-season expectations, so as good as the offense has been, it really could be even better. -Hoffman is done with his pow-wow with Peterson, and in his first outing threw a 1-2-3 inning in 9 pitches. If he's "fixed" it will close a bleeding hole that cost us around five wins this season so far. We've dug ourselves into a big hole this year, and I'm not espousing that we are going to pull a Colorado Rockies and win the division, but I'm predicting that we'll start playing a lot better, and things will be a lot more positive on this board in 2-3 weeks then they are right now.

I think the ballot is based off of the opening day starters, and Edmonds started in RF opening day. I agree Braun and McGehee should go. However, if the Brewers are still in the bottom of the standings when it comes time to pick subs, I could see them only getting one representative.

For those that continue to rip Doug Davis, please remember that he's having heart problems. Without the heart working properly, muscles don't get oxygen and therefore won't work as well and will fatigure much more quickly. For me, the numbers he's put up this season should be swept off his record in judging him as a player. Condemning Davis for this season's work or condemning Melvin for signing him based on the numbers he's put up this season is pretty low. I hope he's able to get himself healthy. Whether or not he "lives up to his contract" is secondary.

Well, many of the responses are focusing on the fact that we are playing well below our talent level this year, so people say we have a terrible team. Kind of the opposite of when we started out 24-10 and people were ready to print World Series tickets. That would be making a decision based on fear or emotion. I believe we still have a very talented system top to bottom, when Melvin started out with basically nothing. Some prospect pitchers didn't pan out, so we had to fill in with veteran FA pitchers. We got good really quickly, so Melvin took a shot at the World Series in the Sabathia trade. We still have a lot of talent, both at the MLB level and in the minors, so it's not nearly as bad as some seem to make it out to be.

I think Friedman is generally accepted as one of (if not the) best GMs in the game. Melvin is seen as a very good GM. If we were to drop Melvin, what would the odds be that we go from "very good" to "excellent" with our next GM? More likely, we'd either go with the "proven old school" GM who raids the minor leagues for an extra couple of wins for a few seasons before we're bereft of prospects, or a "up and coming new school" GM and end up with a JP Riccardi clone who has no idea how to negotiate contracts. Maybe it's boring, but I'd stick with one of the better GMs in the game rather than roll the dice trying to defy the odds and find someone better.

TheCrew07, "unlucky" is probably a bad choice of words, as I am a believer that while things do happen that are out of your control, for a large part you make your own luck. We have had a high percentage of failures at the minor league level and MLB pitchers getting worse after becoming Brewers. At the MLB level, I think much of the poor pitching has to do with the pathetic defense we throw out there. I agree with your post about the mental aspect of the game, and how disheartening is it for our pitchers to go out knowing that they are going to make good pitches and the defense is going to screw up, putting the pitcher in a tough position? As a pitcher (especially a "soft-tossing, pitch to contact" type), it would probably make me nibble the corners more, leading to more walks, higher pitch counts, more big innings, etc. In other words, I think our bad defense has had a big effect on our MLB staff failing to live up to expectations over the past few years. If you have this bad of defense, you need strikeout pitchers, more than you would if you had a good defense. You are probably right that we really don't seem to put much into emphasizing defense at any level of our system. To the credit of many on this board, I remember a lot of discussion on this when Suppan was signed. A lot of informed posters here said that Suppan would be significantly worse with the Brewers' poor defense than he was with the Cardinals' good defense. If it's a given that pitching is extremely important, and good defense can make your pitching significantly better, than why don't we emphasize defense more? We could very easily tell prospects that they won't progress through the system until they shore up their defense. Rather, we move players to other positions simply to get their bat to the next level. Now, it appears Melvin made one "defense-minded" move this offseason by acquiring Gomez, but Macha has sat him fairly often in favor of Edmonds' bigger bat. I won't go any further down this road other than to say that we need a coach that believes in the same philosophy as the organization. At the minor league level I don't know why every pitcher in our system had seemed to fail for a depressingly long time. I think Peterson was brought in to address this. I have some (admittedly uninformed) concerns about his insistance on modifying everyone's pitching style, whether they've been successful or not. However, I really hope his methodology, when instituted early on in a pitcher's development, will lead to more of our draftees making through to major league success.