monty57

If the only offers Walker is getting are minor league deals with an invitation to camp, I agree that making a one-year, low value deal seems to be a no-brainer.

My sources tell me that he will sign in the next few weeks, but if he doesn't, then he will wait until after the season starts before signing. He is looking at the Brewers, but if he doesn't sign there, then he will sign with one of 29 other teams. P.S. I don't have any sources. I would love for Cobb to sign with the Brewers, but I trust in Stearns to know what's best for the team.

The bolded phrase (if this team was serious) is being thrown around by a number of posters and I don't get it. The Brewers added tens of millions to payroll, including two of the best players in baseball in Yelich and Cain. I think for some, the team won't ever be "serious" enough for them. As soon as one move is made, they won't be "serious" unless they make another. There are free agents available, and there are guys available in trade. Everyone knows this, so if the Brewers do not sign one of them it is because they do not believe that they are worth the price that is being demanded, or because the price is more than the team can afford. It's not because they have decided that they don't want to be "serious" this year. Per Cots, the Brewers are around $91M in projected payroll. Adding someone in the $10-15M range should be affordable for 2018, but what will it do in the future? Sogard and Gallardo are the only free agents at the end of the year, and there are 12 guys that will get paid more through arby. That could put the team deep into the red, and it could be the big holdup on adding another salary. It is possible that the inability to make some other trades to shed some future salary could be making the Brewers hesitant about adding another big contract. I would like to see them add Cobb if the price is right, as I think the team would be a lot better with him replacing Suter/Gallardo/Guerra. I am glad that they are likely going to let Woodruff start, as they need to have some rookies on the roster every year so that they will always have pre-arby guys offsetting the bigger salaries on the team. Woodruff has proven himself in the minors and is ready to get his shot. Hopefully he does well. We can't compete for any period of time if we don't let our good prospects get their shot when they're ready.

I think that's exactly why Bethancourt was signed to a minor league deal. He certainly isn't going to set the world on fire offensively, but he is a solid all-around defender who is still young enough to theoretically be in his prime. Otherwise, there are always Susac-types out there that are either available via waivers or minor trades. This is more of a long shot, but if the coverage is true and Nottingham has improved defensively, and starts swinging the bat better, he'd be another possibility. At least he has age on his side. I really doubt and hope they don't have Nottingham on the 25 only to have him play 2 games a week. I think he was saying that he could be an option to be called up sometime this season if one of our MLB guys gets hurt, not that he's an option to make the MLB club's opening day roster.

That would be a very "uber-Brewers" move. And I would say something like that is very likely. I think Vogt is on a major league contract so I believe the whole opening day deadline when his contract becomes guaranteed would remain. The way I read the 10 day DL requirements was that the player first had to be on the 25 man roster. I'm not positive how that all works with spring training but I have to believe he would be protected as being on a major league deal. That's not saying they couldn't do as you suggest, just it would be a more difficult decision to cut him after opening day since they'd be on the hook for his entire salary. I wasn't sure of his contract, but the MLBtraderumors article confirms that the Brewers could cut him and only be on the hook for 30-45 days of termination pay (saving them close to $3M). I personally think this money would be better spent on Cobb than on Vogt, so I'd go with Pina/Bandy and save money by letting Vogt go. Vogt had a pathetically bad throwing arm last year for the Brewers, and shoulder injuries don't make me believe that's going to get better. They should be able to pick up another veteran sometime this spring that they can sign to a minor league deal and stash in AAA in case they need someone due to injury throughout the season.

Can they use this as an excuse to start him out on the DL for an "extended spring training" session, extending the amount of time they get to decide on what to do with their three catchers?

I hope you're right HH. I'd love to see them sign Cobb, hold onto Santana and be able to get something, even if it's Lind-style "trade for teenagers" deals for Aguilar and Broxton. I think Cobb is a great "bounceback" candidate in his second year back from TJ. If he signs, we would have a solid rotation which should be bolstered mid-season with Nelson returning, and we would have a very good lineup with Cain, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Santana as our top five. When one of our biggest problems is "how do we get PAs for all of the talented guys on the roster," I'm not going to complain too much.

If Santana is not traded, then I think Braun should be moved to first base and we should look to trade Aguilar/Thames for whatever we can get. Yelich, Cain, Santana, and Braun are all guys you keep in the lineup every day and Phillips is a solid #4 OF who will need PAs. Braun isn't a good enough defender to bounce around the field. Give him a position and let him play. We won't get a huge return for Aguilar or Thames, but we should be able to restock the farm with some talent, and trading Thames will free up some cash we could use to help sign someone like Cobb or a second base upgrade.

Since he signed, I started a topic in Major Leagues forum and locked this.

Per MLBtraderumors. Also includes 2019 option: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/blue-jays-sign-jaime-garcia.html

That's probably something that gets overlooked. Everyone knows that pitchers who move from the bullpen to the rotation need to be stretched out, so it would seem logical that their "third time through the order" numbers would not be pretty. Being "long man"/spot starter is tough duty. You don't know when you're going in, and when you go in you get thrown to the dogs. I expect the Brewers will sign someone, and I'm guessing Cobb. However, if they decide $91M is enough payroll for the year, and they go into the season with the pitchers they have, I wouldn't be in an uproar if they gave Suter a shot in the rotation. He has gotten guys out at every level he's ever played, including the MLB.

That's baseball, and these guys are professionals that get that. I doubt Stearns is worried about what Gallardo or Miley thinks if they sign Cobb. That'd be a pretty poopy way to go about your business. You need filler FA's to sign for depth and none will if you make it a standard practice to lie to them about their opportunities. I highly doubt that doesn't factor in at some level. I'd put the chances of a significant pitching acquisition at about 40% right now. I highly doubt that anyone was lied to. Telling the media that they're comfortable with what they have is standard practice for teams looking to make a move. When a veteran signs a non-guaranteed deal with an invitation to camp, no one is telling them that they're a shoo-in for a spot. They know they're running out of chances to prove themselves. They only signed with the Brewers because they knew the Brewers were trying to improve their final rotation spot, so it would make sense that if in trying to improve that spot they would trade for or sign a more talented player if possible.

That's baseball, and these guys are professionals that get that. I doubt Stearns is worried about what Gallardo or Miley thinks if they sign Cobb. One thing Stearns has shown as GM is that he isn't afraid to sign and release guys, so if an opportunity arises to add someone he thinks is better than what he's got, he's going to sign him. Whenever a team makes a roster move, someone gets bumped. Players know this, and that's incentive for anyone not on a guaranteed contract to do everything they can to impress. Gallardo and Miley signed knowing they were in a competition for a roster spot. If they play well in spring training they will give themselves a chance to make a roster, whether that's the Brewers or another team. The only ones with any kind of a gripe would be the prospects, but history has shown that teams don't make decisions based on the feelings of their minor leaguers.

Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones. 110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now. I'd say a lot more went wrong with the Brewers. They had significant injuries to their pitching staff. I may be forgetting something, but the worst thing that happened to the Cubs was Hendricks going down for a month. Rather than saying things "went wrong" with the Cubs, I think they simply showed that they are human. Some of the big names we've heard so much like Baez, Russell, and Schwarber might not be as special as they were hyped to be, and everyone goes through periods of ups-and-downs. They're a good team, but they're not superhuman, and they are certainly not deep. Every team goes through injuries, and that could cost the Cubs a lot of wins this year. Signing Darvish allows them some insurance with Montgomery, but behind him on the depth chart is some guy named Eddie Butler. Might be a bit of a drop off going from Lester/Darvish to Montgomery/Butler for any significant period of time. Next on the depth chart is Drew Smyly who won't even play this season as he recovers from TJ surgery. They really, really have to hope they don't have any significant injuries this year. But, Stearns can't make his decisions based on what they Cubs are doing. The Brewers have added a lot of talent this offseason, and their offense should be much more consistent. If we add someone like Cobb, we should have a solid roster that will be bolstered mid-season when Nelson returns. Plus, we still have a fairly strong farm system that will hopefully add more talent to the MLB roster in the near future. I agree with you that if the first half doesn't go our way we shouldn't hesitate to sell off some guys, but that's not something we should hope for or expect. I expect to have a team that can compete this year. But, once the games start anything can happen.

In negotiations, sometimes you have to dig in your heels. Teams have hired young, Ivy League GMs who all subscribe to the same mentality as to how to value players. This methodology shows that some guys have been way overpaid, so those GMs aren't paying what some players (and their agents) thought they were worth. Meanwhile, players and their agents are used to seeing massive inflation to salaries every year, regardless of what's going on in the "real world," and they want/expect those salaries to continue to rise without a hitch. For the teams to have any leverage, they have to be willing to pass on players who could give them a better chance of winning unless they come down to their price. For the players, they have to be willing to sit out a season (or partial season) and give up a year of playing and getting paid unless teams come up to their price. At some point, individual teams and individual players will find common ground and sign deals. That may or may not happen before the season starts. I think we will see some players sign, while some players will start the season unemployed.

You have to consider Duffy's 15mil per salary for 4 years. Merrifield has a .736 OPS career for minors, that bat is light and he's 29. Kansas City would be lucky to rid that contract with Merrifield for Santana alone. Woodruff inclusion is over the top. If you are paying 4/60mil for Duffy then just sign Cobb keep Santana and Woodruff. Merrifield at 2b is questionable of an upgrade over Sogard/Villar/Perez trio usage there. If it is it is miniscule and not worth including Woodruff to get him if Santana alone isn't enough to make this happen. Send them Villar since you are removing his playing time completely but never Woodruff. I agree. Duffy's 29 and signed for 4 years at roughly $15M per year so he'd be a nice guy to get, but if we trade away Woodruff then we're still stuck with a rotation spot that needs to be filled. I'm not sure that we could/should get both Duffy and Cobb at around $15M each, so if we make a trade centering around Santana-for-Duffy, I wouldn't include one of our MLB pitchers in the deal. I'd rather have Duffy than Cobb, but Cobb "only" costs money, while Duffy costs money and whatever we give up in trade. Tough call as to which is the better option. If it's pretty much Santana for Duffy straight up, I'd probably go that route as Duffy is a safer bet than Cobb, who might not regain what he once was. That and we can't play six outfielders at a time, so Santana is expendable. If I'm wrong and we have enough payroll room going forward to get both Duffy and Cobb, then make the deals. I'd rather pay $30M/year to the combination of Duffy (29 years old) and Cobb (30) for the next four years than $20M+/year to Arrieta (32) for the next five or six years. But that $30M in addition to the other contracts we have on the books would give us 10 players making around $100M in 2019. Throw in Nelson and Knebel in their second year of arby, and I think it would be tough for the Brewers to pay for a full 25-man roster.

I'm with you. For Yelich, we mainly gave up high-minors outfielders, which was a big price but were guys we shouldn't need considering our MLB roster. Most importantly, we held onto our top pitching prospects. I'd hate to see us give up the prospects it would take to land someone like Archer. From the Fangraphs article posted earlier, Cobb's price may be coming down from the 4/$60 he originally wanted, so he's probably the guy I'd most like us to sign to shore up our rotation. I'd then hold onto Santana and look to make minor trades with guys like Broxton and Aguilar (for someone like Cotton) so Braun could spend a good share of time at 1B and Phillips would still get some PAs. I think that could be a pretty good team, with lots of team control, and we'd still have a fairly strong farm.

I don't know about 3.6 ERA being his floor, but I am warming up to the notion of adding Cobb, especially if his price is moving down from his initial 4/$60 demands. I made the mistake of just doing a quick check on him, and seeing his projections which look like they may be a little light. As a guy in his second year back from TJ, he could be back to form and if we can get him for something like 4/$50, that could be a good signing. But, this is the "What if we don't add a starter?" thread, so I'll stop there.

To the first sentence, we missed the playoffs by one game last year and have made moves to make us better this year. We added two of the best all-around players in baseball in Yelich and Cain, and I expect we'll still add a quality starter to shore up our rotation. Why would you not be at least somewhat optimistic, especially considering that at this time last year most people didn't think we'd be close to a playoff team for at least a few seasons. To the second part, the Cubs built themselves up from the farm. By next year, Happ will be the only pre-arby guy left on the roster, and they have traded away every useful prospect they had. With the stricter luxury tax, as the arby salaries rise they will be limited in how much they can spend to improve and they don't have any more players on the farm to trade for MLB help. They are built around Bryant and Rizzo, and they both have four years of control remaining. The Cubs still have a few years left where they should be the team to beat in the central, but they have absolutely went "all in." With that, they are paper-thin depth wise, and that will cost them as the inevitable injuries pop up. "On paper," we're still behind them but we're catching up. We still have some moves to make before the season starts, and once the games begin anything can happen. We have a good shot at being a playoff team this year, so I am very excited for this season to start.

Agree. If he wants to stick it to the Cubs so badly that he takes a big discount to come to the Brewers, that's a different story. But since that's not happening, I would steer clear of the contract he's demanding.

I like Woodruff to be the #5 and you can use Suter as a long reliver. His "craftiness" would be tough for hitters to adjust to after facing the other starters (as we saw last year during the first time through the order) I agree, and that's what I expect to happen. For sake of the "What if we don't add a starter?" thread, I was just stating that Suter probably wouldn't be too bad as a #5 if we stand pat. Anyone added needs to be a step up from Suter, and I don't think we should pay too much unless it is a significant step up.

JosephC did a good write-up of how there is really no way the Marlins could get anywhere near the excess surplus value Yelich provides, so while we gave up a lot, we probably didn't give up what he is actually worth. He was a unique situation because of the circumstances surrounding Miami this offseason, so Stearns made the deal. I agree with you in that I don't generally like signing guys past 30 to multi-year deals, but Cain has steadily been one of the best OF in baseball over the past four seasons. Stearns thinks he will age well, and while I am skeptical as to whether you can predict how a player will age, if Stearns thinks he will be able to provide 3-4 WAR/season for the next few years, then he would presumably see $16M/year to be "on sale." He wasn't making deals to go "all in." Rather, he thought he got good deals for guys who could make the team better, so he jumped. As I stated, I think the Brewers will still add a starter, but probably not on a bad deal. Since we have excess OFs, finding a pitcher in trade using our MLB surplus (Santana, Broxton, Thames, Aguilar) makes a lot more sense then signing a free agent to a big money deal or trading away our prospects. I think trading Santana was "Plan A" all along, otherwise I agree with you that it didn't make sense to add two outfielders. However, if (for instance) Stearns sees something he likes in Cotton and can get him for Broxton, then he might be a way to hold onto Santana and move Braun to 1st, giving us a really good offense to go along with a pitching staff that did pretty well a year ago. We as fans need to get out of the "window" mindset and realize that Stearns isn't sacrificing the future to win this year, but is continually looking for ways to improve the team. If you continually look for any and all ways to add talent to the franchise, you will end up with a talented franchise that will produce winning baseball teams.

I hope we aren't looking at a "window" at all, but rather just saw some guys who looked to be "on sale" in Cain and Yelich, so we picked them up to improve the team. As to potentially not adding a starter, I'll first say that I think we will add someone, but if we don't, then I'd expect Suter to be our #5 going into the season. In 22 games last year (14 starts), he posted a 3.42 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 7.05 k/9, 2.42 BB/9 for a 1.6 WAR. He's one of those guys like Davies who has consistently put up good numbers without good "stuff," so he's never been highly regarded even though he gets guys out. I think we'd be okay with Suter, but I think we will make a move. I just think that the way to look at whatever move we make has to be relative to Suter. i.e. if we do something, it has to be significantly better than a 1.6 or so WAR or we'd better not pay too much for it. In that light, Fangraphs projects Cobb to post 1.5-1.6 WAR (he was at 2.4 in 2017). Is it worth signing Cobb to a 4 yr / $60M deal if he's only slightly better than Suter? I don't think so. Arrieta is projected to post around a 3 WAR, which would be an upgrade, but the decision comes down to whether that upgrade is worth $20-25M a year for 4-6 years, when he's already in his early 30's. Again, I think Stearns will do something, but marginal return is important. Are 1.5 additional wins worth paying $20-25M/year to a declining player? I personally hope he finds something more reasonable. If not, he was willing to give Davies a shot and that paid off, so he may be willing to give another guy who puts up numbers without great "stuff" a shot, and we might open the season with Suter as our #5 until Nelson returns. It's not sexy, and the "win now" crowd would not like it, but it could be the sensible move.

Well said. I get worried about "all in" as well, but until he proves different, I believe that Stearns will always have a long-term outlook for the team. A move like Broxton-for-Cotton makes a lot of sense for the Brewers. Broxton is better than a 5th OF, and that's the best he'd be for the Brewers. Meanwhile, Cotton is a high-upside starter whose stock is probably down after a lackluster rookie season. With Nelson set to return mid-season and a bunch of other young arms getting near MLB ready, I'd be fine if the Brewers decided to start the season with Cotton in the #5 slot. Even if they weren't trading for him to give him a rotation spot right away, he still makes sense as a young pitcher with a lot of potential who could really help them down the road. This would be the type of trade that both teams could "win" on, or either team could "lose" on, but for the Brewers I'd like to see another high-upside, MLB ready arm with a lot of team control in the system.

Sure, key injuries here or there can be a huge blow to any team. However, it's not a fun place to be to have to almost hope your opposition has injuries so you even stand a chance. Plus, odds are the Cubs would win the division even if they lost a starter for a good portion of the year. Brewers have a good shot at the wildcard race again. Unless the Cubs have a below average first half again, like last year, the division will not be competitive. PS.... honestly the cubs only added Yu to help out in their chances of advancing in the playoff. They did not sign him in hopes of actually making the playoffs which were already a guarantee. The Brewers weren't supposed to be a playoff contender this quickly. They should still be in their rebuilding years. Meanwhile the Cubs are in the middle of their "window" that was opened after a long, painful rebuild and during which they have traded away most of their future to win another ring before everything comes crashing down. I think where we are is a very fun place to be. We didn't have to suffer a long, painful rebuild. We didn't have to lose 100 games multiple years in a row to get top draft picks. Yet here we are, right in the middle of the conversation of how we can position ourselves for a good shot at the playoffs. We have a playoff capable roster that is pretty much locked in place for several years, and we have flexibility to make moves that hopefully will make us even better. I'm very excited to see how the season plays out, and I'm certainly not going to write off the season just because "on paper" the Cubs are expected to be the best team in the division.