monty57

This is what we need to remember every time we hear someone say "I can't believe that player signed an extension for that little." The teams take on a lot of risk, and the player "pays for" that risk by taking less than he'd get on the open market. Interesting that they have come to terms with Villar and Perez after signing Sogard. If they are looking at adding someone else for second base, they'll now either have to trade someone or eat a couple of million dollars.

As for you will never be convinced, it sounds like you understand the concept, so you are just being old man Shawshank obtuse. First of all, it isn't always a payroll budgeting technique. Sometimes the agent/player wants the money deferred (assuming they get more of it - time value of money). Sometimes the reason to defer contracts may be cash flow reasons for another part of the team business. Just a made-up example, say the team knows they are going to pay for a concourse upgrade three years out, so instead of taking a bank loan (keeping it simple) to cash flow, they just defer some player contracts (assuming the inflation rate used on time value of money is less than the interest cost on the bank loan). The increased revenue from the concourses will then be put back in to assist in player salary in future years. It is very easy to budget your roster, it isn't like these numbers are a surprise - they are known years in advance. The Brewers knew they had to pay A. Ram $3M, KRod $2M, Lohse $2.33M, Garza $2M this year. Even an incompetent accountant can make sure these are accounted for when the front office was putting together their 2018 baseball budget. That's not a time value of money argument, that's a return on investment argument. Yes, if they took the money they deferred (essentially taking out a loan) and used it to purchase a permanent income stream that would increase payroll for the future, that's a good idea. Businesses do that all the time. When the Brewers deferred these contracts, they were right at budget on the MLB roster, and deferred the money so they could afford to add more players at that time trying to "win now." The argument of the day by those that thought this was a good idea was that money in the future was worth less than money today, so they should do more deferrals and they would save money. That theory only holds water if they are investing those funds into something that will return greater than or equal to the inflation rate you are using when computing the future value of the money. The Brewers weren't doing that, they were deferring the money so they could spend more in the present with no additional future gains. As you stated, there will be no surprise. Future payrolls will now be less than they could be because of these deferrals. In order to afford to have an extra player on the roster several years ago, our payrolls will be less (and therefore our teams may not be as good) when we are paying Braun when he is not playing for the Brewers. I have no problem being called obtuse when I'm arguing against bad business practices.

Yep. My hope is that enough teams overspent to get relievers that the ripple effect will cause other markets (like 2B) to soften. The more time passes, the more likely it is that players will have to bring their asking price down. I don't know how likely it is that we could get Walker on a 2-year deal, but I'd jump on it if we could. If not, then we have to decide if we're comfortable giving the position to three guys who are probably better served as utility guys, or if we should sign or trade for someone else.

Castro seems like a relatively safe bet to give you 1-2 WAR. Villar could "find it" and do better than that, or he could give you negative value as he has in three of his five MLB seasons. We say Villar is young, but he turns 27 in May and is actually only one year younger than Castro. I know there's talent in Villar, but with his poor defense he needs to hit well to provide positive value, so I think at this point he should start as a utility guy and fight to earn a starting spot back. He can do too much damage to the team if he's simply given the job and it turns out 2016 was a fluke. I'm not sold on Castro, but the Brewers should at least "kick the tires." If they can get him for close to nothing if they pick up the salary, it'd be tempting. With two years and an option on his contract, he could bridge the gap nicely to the talented guys currently in the low minors. I guess my take on things is that Villar could "find it" and be the better player over the next couple of seasons, but Castro is less likely to sink the ship than Villar. I really wish we could send Villar to AAA to work out the kinks, but if he had those options we probably never would have got him from the Astros.

But when you throw in the contract that will be needed to sign Walker, and the years of commitment that would likely overlap the readiness of Dubon, Diaz and Huera, it becomes a question of value. Also, if they sign Walker, they are pretty much giving up all hope for Villar, and bottoming-out his value. I'm only pushing for Walker if they can get him to agree to a 2-year deal. Part of that is his age, and part of it is the fact that we have some talented players in the low minors who should be pushing for MLB playing time in a couple of years. I would pass if he insists on a 3-4 year deal. If not Walker, then there is a good chance we'd look elsewhere to upgrade second base, such as a trade for Castro, which the panel on last night's MLB Network programming were thinking should happen. He has two years plus a club option remaining and reportedly wants out of Miami so he might not cost much in terms of prospects if we take on his salary. I think a 2-year talented "stopgap" would fit nicely to bridge the gap to the talented youngsters. Villar's value right now is pretty much bottomed out. I think that as things currently stand (if we don't bring someone else in), there will be a fight for 2B among Villar, Sogard and Perez. Since Sogard was re-signed, and since he's the only one who doesn't strike out a lot (I agree with WTP's post above) I think he has the inside track for the majority of playing time. That would make Perez his platoon partner with Villar still fighting for playing time. If Walker or someone else is brought in, I still think Sogard is safe as a utility guy, leaving Villar and Perez fighting for a spot on the roster. Since Perez would probably garner more in trade at this point, I'd look to trade him and keep Villar as the 2nd utility guy. Either way, I think Villar is going to have to fight for playing time, and is going to have to show that he can play multiple positions to get more PAs. They relied on him last year and that bombed. They probably aren't just going to hand him the spot again. He will have to earn it back.

What makes you think "standing pat" means Villar gets his job back? He was behind both Sogard and Perez at the end of 2017 and both those guys are still on the roster. Add in Walker and he was 4th string. In this case, "standing pat" means that Villar is given the opportunity to prove that he is the 2016 version and not the 2017 version. Because the 2016 version of Villar is infinitely better than anything Sogard or Perez, or Walker really, is going to provide. And I have a feeling you know that. The 2016 version of Villar produced 3.1 WAR (per Fangraphs). I'll agree that's better than you could expect from Sogard or Perez, but Walker has done better than that twice in his career, and is expected to produce around 2.6 WAR next year. So, realistically the upside of Villar (which may or may not happen) is probably around what you would expect Walker to bring to the table. I also don't think there's any reason to put the "I have a feeling you know that" jibe in.

If he was brought in as insurance, then he would only get called up to cover for injury or under-performance. If he pitches poorly enough in that call-up that they want to send him back down, then they'd probably be pretty happy if he voids the contract to become a free agent.

Sorry if this is off track, but including deferred money, I believe the Brewers owe Braun $86M if his '21 option is exercised, and $75M if it is not. I think this Bruce contract shows around what Braun would get on the open market today. A lot of people, myself included, were really hoping Braun would get traded over the past couple of offseasons and this is why. I like Braun, and expect to see his number retired by the Brewers shortly after he retires, but even without the 10/5 no trade clause, he's virtually untradable at this point. btw, this is also why I hate deferring money in contracts. In order to spend more money on the roster a few years ago, we will have less payroll room all the way through 2031 because we will still be paying a retired Ryan Braun. No time value of money argument will convince me that it's worth it.

I've heard a few people say this. That draft included these guys who have accumulated at least 10 WAR so far (the draft was only six years ago): Gerritt Cole, Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Geroge Springer (drafted before our picks), and Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, and Jackie Bradley selected after our picks. Then there were guys like Trevor Story, Kolton Wong, Joe Panik, Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Javier Baez, Joe Ross and others who are solid MLB players. Some guys may not have lived up to the hype, but there are a lot of good MLB players from that draft. I'm certainly no draft expert, and get most of my info on the draft from the gurus on this site. During that period, the Brewers were competitive at the MLB level and seemed to use a lot of picks on college arms that people thought could be rushed through the minors to help out in some way on the MLB roster pretty quickly. I may be off, but I kind of use the Medeiros/Gateway/Harrison draft as the "sea change" draft where they started looking at high upside rather than looking for guys they could rush to the majors. Again, I'm no expert, but as I was following along on the board that year it just seemed that posters were shocked at how we were doing things.

This was at a "win now" time for the Brewers where they were more interested in "low ceiling / high floor" guys who could make it to the majors quickly than in picking the best talent. I'm happy that we're running things differently today than we did back then.

Just for sake of a reference point, I used 1970 as a starting date, and in compiling the 326 qualified second basemen since then, Walker is #45 in aggregate WAR for his career at 21.1 (per Fangraphs). Being the 45th highest WAR at a position in a 47 year time-frame won't put him in the Hall of Fame, but it puts him far ahead of guys like Villar and Sogard. My only concern with signing Walker, assuming we get a fair price, is that he's 32 years old. He should be fine for a 2-year deal, but once a player gets into his mid-30s he could hit a cliff at any time. Hence my concern over a three or four year deal. Additionally, I think that the Brewers are hurt by the number of high strikeout guys they have on their roster, and believe that is why they have been prone to "streakiness" in the recent past. We need to start getting some different approaches into the lineup. Guys like Perez and Villar do not help in that regard. I think that's why Sogard was re-signed, but Walker is just a lot better (and more consistent) than Sogard.

I had some hope that he could give us some value as a multi-inning reliever for a few seasons, but I guess he's far enough behind guys like Gallardo, Guerra, Suter, etc. that it's better just to "do the good thing" and let him see if he can put things together in Japan.

If this does happen, it makes a lot of sense for both teams. The Astros will strengthen their bid for another title, and the Pirates will get a ton back in terms of prospects. I like that Stearns came from the Astros and helped build that franchise. I want to get to the point that the Brewers are one of the better MLB teams while still having such a strong, deep farm that they can deal prospects for stars and still have a top system.

From MLBtraderumors: 12:04pm: A source tells Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) that the rumored deal is simply a “false rumor.” It seems, then, there’s no reason at this time to believe a deal between these organizations is particularly likely to occur.

Yeah, this could be a guy they stick in AAA in case of need. If they can fix something and he shows signs of life, then they got a good deal. If not, then he gets mop-up innings in AAA or gets cut.

If the Brewers are using a method that allows them to do something to help the team, why is anyone upset about this? If they were breaking any rules, I'm sure the league or other teams would have said something about it. I like that Stearns structured the deal so that it is not overly expensive this year in case he can't come back from the injury, and gives us an extra year if he is healthy and pitches well. At the current price level for relievers, two years at $1.9M and $4.1M would be a steal if he's healthy and pitching well, and one year $2.5M won't hurt us if he can't come back strong from the injury. Again, I'm glad Stearns hasn't panicked and "paid up" as the reliever market has escalated. This looks like a much more prudent use of funds.

Sogard was re-signed to a MLB contract, so he's not getting cut. We need a backup catcher (Vogt), and we will have a real OF as our 4th OF this season whether that be Phillips, Brinson, or Broxton. If we sign Walker and choose to go with a 4-man bench, that will leave one spot open for Villar, Perez, or Aguilar. Even if we don't sign Walker, at least one of Villar, Perez, or Aguilar would not be on the Brewers' opening day roster if we go with a 4-man bench. I've always liked the idea of Walker on a 2-year deal. I've just never liked adding the third year. I'll take an All Star talent at 2nd base regardless of it's effect on the bench, as we are a much better team with Walker than without him.

No harm in signing this guy to a minor league deal. At the very least, he gives them another catcher to help handle the load early in ST. If he shows any kind of life, he'll be good insurance to stash in the minors. As to the glut of catcher we have, there has to be a trade coming at some point. We have extra catchers and extra outfielders, so something is going to happen before too long.

Closing this thread, as Logan signed for $2.5M. New thread opened in Major League forum

Walks too many, but he strikes out over 1/3 of the guys he faces and half the balls that get hit are on the ground. Looks like a solid pickup for the pen for $2.5M.

Since this is discussing the MLB lead-off hitter for 2018, and people are discussing options from our current roster, I moved this from the Transactions forum to the Major Leauge forum.

I don't think that's absolute proof, but I do think that the reason the Brewers aren't committing to Hader one way or the other is they want to see how the market plays out. If they can get a steal on another starter, then they may keep Hader in the pen. If they find some guys they're confident in to fill out the pen then Hader may be in the rotation. Also, the reason those of us who would like to see Hader get a chance in the rotation is that we believe Hader >>>>> 3-5 starter.

The Brewers aren't done. While everyone else was signing 2nd tier relievers for around $8M/year, Stearns got Chacin for $8M/year. It's not that I think the Brewers should be unwilling to pay money for players, but when one area of the market is overpriced, there will generally be areas where you can find bargains. If two players are worth "x," why pay "x + 1" for one of them when you can pay "x-1" for the other? It appears that starting pitching is an area where you may be able to find bargains, which was certainly not the case in the recent past. I'm glad that Stearns retained his composure and didn't get into the bidding war for today's hot item, and instead found a valuable player for what seems to be less than what he's worth. Stearns may have also found an overlooked area with multi-inning relievers, which is where I think he's going to use Gallardo. Generally speaking, chasing after the hot commodity will get you burned, while the ability to find value will allow for a team like the Brewers to have a few higher priced guys on the roster and remain competitive over the long haul. Rarely should a team spend money just because they have it. That can lead to lots of problems.

Machado won't sign an extension. If he would, then Baltimore wouldn't be trading him. But based on some posters' premise that the Brewers could afford to sign him to an extension (which is highly doubtful), then just let the Cardinals empty their farm for him and sign him after the season when he's a free agent and won't cost us the prospects. In no way should the Brewers trade what it would take to get Machado for one season. I'd hate that move even if we were further along in our rebuild, but it makes absolutely no sense this offseason.

As I hear people lamenting that we aren't chasing the market to sign a 2nd tier reliever this offseason, I've thought of the Riske signing and that has calmed me down and made me glad that Stearns has discipline. But the Hammonds signing pretty much single-handedly cost Taylor his job, so that has to go to the top of the list.