monty57
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Everything posted by monty57
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The Cardinals are an example that you don't have to be "boom or bust." That gives me hope that the Brewers, under the correct management, can become a franchise that can expect to win regularly. The Cardinals never firesale their MLB team, but they always have a strong farm. They never gut the farm, but they always have a good MLB team. There is a mix somewhere between the "window strategy" and the "continual rebuild strategy" that can lead to prolonged success for a smaller market team. Hopefully the Stearns/Attanasio group can find that successful strategy, and if they do I hope Attanasio signs Stearns to a lifetime contract. I know that wasn't to the topic of "Cardinal pessimism." It's easy to dislike them, but it's hard to be too pessimistic about a team that rarely has a losing season, much less a prolonged stretch of ineptitude like those so prevalent in Milwaukee and Chicago. This is probably what it feels like to be a Bears fan. They hate the Packers because their team can't be like the Packers.
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I know the playoff push is the most important thing right now, but it's nice that we'll get to see how he handles himself in a big situation as he'll be an option for next year's rotation. Let's hope for a strong five+ innings out of him.
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The Cardinals seem to exist to give us misery. Beat us in the World Series, beat us in the NLCS, when we win and have fun they tell us we don't have fun in the correct way, and when they finally have a chance to help us out in a small way they get swept by the Cubs.
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Cubs are playing the Cards this weekend, so it's a good chance for us to make up some games if we can beat the Marlins. Cards sweep and Brewers sweep and we have a three-way tie for first place. The four-game series vs Chicago and the final series of the season against the Cards will also be very big. Bottom line: The Brewers can make the playoffs if they play good baseball. We just need to keep winning. -
Villar getting benched the last 4 games...
monty57 replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Thames 2017 vs RHP .251/.239/.530/.899 Even with his down times, Thames is still sporting a .853 OPS, nearly 200 points higher than Villar. It doesn't seem painfully obvious to me why you would regularly take his bat out of the lineup. -
Reds claim Scooter Gennett on waivers
monty57 replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think they would have if Scooter could play anything other than second base. That is what this all comes down to. I would love to have kept Scooter over a guy like Perez. Man would I have loved that. But when you can only put Scooter in a second base, you are just too limited. He has played some outfield for the Reds hasn't he? I imagine he could play 1st as well. Which would put him one up on Aguilar. But then the choice is about the same as Villar in that they went with the guy with more control. Perez is simply more valuable as a utility player to take Gennett over him. That leaves Nieuwenhuis. Can't really see where his value was higher than Gennett even in spring. To me the mistake was not in keeping Villar over Gennett but keeping Nieuwenhuis over him. Lesson learned. Never keep a player with more vowels than consonants in his name. Aaron :-) -
Reds claim Scooter Gennett on waivers
monty57 replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The writing was on the wall that Gennett's days in Milwaukee were limited, but I was surprised when Gennett was let go for nothing. I thought he was a low-level starting-caliber player who could be an upgrade on several teams. Unfortunately for the Brewers, he was in a low value point of his career after a lackluster season in which he started out hot but never regrouped after he was injured. Stearns tried to trade him but found no suitors, so he cut him. Looking back, this has turned into a bad decision. That happens. Stearns has turned a rebuild team into a playoff contender pretty quickly, so I won't lose any sleep over the mistakes he's made. -
3-3 against the Dodgers this season, and held them to 3 or fewer runs in five out of six. I like the team's chances. I think the Dodgers are cocky enough to think the Crew is a pushover... and the Crew could take them, especially if a Suter or Davies is red hot and the offense shows up. It is very unlikely that Suter would face a single batter in the post season if we make it. I agree that Suter is far from the most important player to get hot, but with a lineup consisting of LH batters Bellinger, Gonzalez, Seager, Utley, and Granderson, I'd guess that Suter would get some time on the mound if the Brewers faced the Dodgers in the post season.
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Unless I'm misreading that, doesn't it mean that there are only 41 qualified batters who hit at a league average or above level while striking out at a greater than league average rate, making that an even rarer commodity? In other words, it's hard to be a league average or above hitter, but even harder if you carry a high strikeout rate. Too small a sample from which to make any kind of judgement, but if it held true, then that would mean that strikeouts do matter, at least to some degree.
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We have a pretty good foundation for our offense going forward, but we have some holes to fill (or hope for improvement). As TPlush mentioned, we have power on the roster. We just need the other guys to get on base around them. There have been a lot of PAs that have gone to guys who have had bad seasons (Villar) are still getting their feet wet (Brinson, Phillips, Arcia), are extremely streaky (Broxton) aren't guys who can get on base (Perez) or just aren't that good (Franklin, Kirk N.). There will always be some of that going on in a MLB roster, but if we can limit the "black holes" to a greater degree, we could be a more consistent offense. Brinson playing well next year and finding a 2B who can get on base could help out.
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The Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Cubs for the division, and 3 games back of the Rockies (5 of the Diamondbacks) for the Wild Card. It's probably just as likely that we catch one of the Wild Card teams as it is that we catch the Cubs. We are winning the division. Gotcha. I like the optimism.
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The Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Cubs for the division, and 3 games back of the Rockies (5 of the Diamondbacks) for the Wild Card. It's probably just as likely that we catch one of the Wild Card teams as it is that we catch the Cubs.
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Agree. It's nice that we can debate about which of our pitchers is the best of a group that is performing well. Better that we can debate this in the context of a realistic playoff possibility. Also better that we are in this situation early in a rebuild process and not only did we not "sell the farm" to get here, but we added to the farm while building this roster, leaving us with a possible playoff roster and one of the best farms in the league. As to the playoffs, the best scenario for a Wild Card (in my opinion) would be that Nelson would get that game on normal rest, leaving Anderson and Davies to open the playoff when we win the Wild Card play-in. Worst case scenario would be that we would need Nelson and Anderson to pitch the final two games in the season and we would get Davies in the WC and probably Garza opening the playoff series.
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Players on the 60 day DL are paid as major leaguers and accrue MLB service time. As to the Ramirez idea, when the season is over, impending free agents will drop off the 40-man, freeing up space. Right now, we would need to dfa someone in order to add someone else. Also, we would use up an option if we add him now instead of after the season. Not saying we couldn't do it, but there may be reasons to wait until after the season.
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Taking the potential negatives from the previous posts into consideration, it then becomes a case of marginal utility. Will he provide enough excess return to justify the potential downside? I would say that over the 10-15 innings he'd get in September, the answer to that would be "no." The expanded rosters are generally for bringing up guys who are already on the 40-man roster and can give the team a boost. If Burns was already on the 40 man, then it might make sense to bring him up, but adding a potentially good future starter to the 40-man and starting his clock before he's probably ready for it may not be good roster management or good for Burns' long-term future with the Brewers.
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KeithStone, I am also a "Hader defender." I think it would be crazy not to give the guy a shot at the rotation. The nay-sayers may be right, and he may be forced back into the pen, but at least give him a shot. This is a guy who has made hitters like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto look foolish. Very few pitchers can do that. He could be special, so let's give him that shot.
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I'm no expert on this, but I believe that once you reach a plateau, that is your plateau even if you don't reach it the next year. He could have maxed around 150 IP this year, so I think he could max at around 150 IP next year. Pitchers don't pitch deep into games as much as they used to, so many starters are hitting 150 IP around this part of the season (Nelson 156.2, Davies 149.2). If he were to start next year in the rotation and pitch normal innings, he would need to be shut down around this time next year. If they make him the #5 and skip him now and then, he could make it further into the season.
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Of course you can trade them later. That wasn't the point though. If you feel someone like Anderson is going to regress from what they're doing this year, why wouldn't you sell high on him and get back more now than have him for a couple of years pitching worse and then trade him for less than you could've gotten? If our guys are that good at predicting the future, then we should always be able to grab guys off the scrap heap who will perform like stars. However, it's really difficult to predict that sort of thing. Anderson probably isn't an ace, but everyone knows that, and we aren't going to be able to convince a MLB GM that he is, so the thought that he has immense value now that will go away after next season probably isn't realistic. If it is, and someone offers us an unbelievable deal, then go ahead and trade him. In the likely scenario that we wouldn't get that "king's ransom," then he is probably most valuable to us as a member of our rotation in 2018, looking to trade him when some of the next prospects are ready to step in. I was looking at Nelson, Anderson and Davies as the three "vets," with Woodruff and Hader as the guys who are ready to step in next year to fill out the rotation. We then have a lot of prospects who could be ready in the coming years, and as they push there way onto the MLB roster, they can allow us to trade guys like Nelson, Anderson and Davies as their "team control" starts to run out.
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Guerra was so far off that he obviously had something going on in his head. Hopefully the lower stress atmosphere of the minors allows him to correct that and he can come back strong. Unfortunately, no one will know until he's back in the majors if he's completely over it.
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I agree with tmwiese55. We have a lot of pitching talent on the farm, but not all of them are ready. The guys who are ready are replacing the holes we had in the rotation to start this year. We should hold onto our productive guys with team control until the replacements are ready for them, and we're not quite there yet. This should help us remain playoff hopefuls at the MLB level, and when the prospects push their way into the MLB rotation, we should still be able to trade guys like Nelson, Anderson and Davies for a good haul. That way we can continue to stock the system while being competitive at the MLB level
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I'd go with: Nelson Anderson Davies Woodruff Hader (make him #5 so he can be skipped now and then to keep his innings down) Trade Garza this offseason to a team looking for a relatively inexpensive veteran #4/5 starter.
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Nelson was pretty dominant in the upper minors, so I've been hoping he could "turn the corner" at the MLB level for a while. Hopefully he's finally done that, and we can expect more years like this. For a one-game play-in, I'd lean toward Nelson, but really would just go with who would be on the right rest (i.e. I wouldn't pitch Nelson on limited rest if Anderson was fresher). As to extensions, either of these guys could fall back. Since we already have both of them through their prime years, I don't see a reason to extend them. We would be taking a big risk in order to get some of the decline years. Because they're both in arby next year (Anderson year 2 of 4, Nelson year 1 of 3) we probably wouldn't get a significant enough discount to justify the risk. Plus, we'd be paying them based on their breakout year, which may be the best year we see out of them.
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There are currently six CF with at least 350 PA who have an OPS of .800 or greater. If Broxton finishes the season as the opening post suggests, he will be in high demand. Even if he finishes in the upper .700's, which seems easily doable, he should bring back some good value in trade. With so many OF and Braun basically untradeable, it seems like a good idea to trade Broxton this offseason and start next year with Braun, Brinson, Santana as the OF with Phillips as either the 4th OF or the first call-up from AAA.
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Manfred says no to machines calling balls and strikes
monty57 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's not "an always part of the game" reason for me, I just think it takes too much nuance out of the game. You're taking away from that pitcher who keeps hitting his spots, moving the ball around in the zone and then gets that strike call just outside the zone. I get some people don't like that, but I think that's a part of the game, the matchup between the pitcher and hitter I want to see preserved. That's like saying if a hitter puts four balls to the wall that are caught for outs, the fourth one should be considered a home run because he's been hitting the ball hard all game. If it's not a strike, it's not a strike. Giving the pitcher a wider zone because he's been throwing strikes breaks the stated rules to benefit him and penalizes the hitter. Just give them an even playing field and see who wins. I think having automated ball/strikes called makes a lot more sense than using super slo-mo to see if a baserunner's foot left the base for 1/10 of a second. That takes time and seems like an overreach, while calling the strike zone accurately is just something that makes sense. The automated strike zone is instant and accurate, so it takes nothing away from the game other than the visual of seeing a guy dressed in black standing behind the plate. As to the curveball thing mentioned earlier, that's a good thing. The 12-6 curveball has largely been taken out of the game because umpires have a hard time calling it correctly. That's a bad thing. If automation allows for pitchers to throw their best pitch and have it called correctly, that's a good thing. -
Villar was named the starter during the offseason because of what he did last year. That was understandable. With the way he played, he got benched for Sogard and the Brewers then traded for Walker to start at 2B. I don't see how the Brewers are mid-using him or giving him any special favors. We shouldn't read too much into one start in CF in order to get a LH bat in the lineup vs a guy who has troubles against lefties. If it does open up the possibility that he can play OF, and that adds more value whether we use him in the "super sub" role or trade him away.
