monty57

Just to note: I'm not proposing that we should start trading prospects to go "all in." I was one of the guys screaming the loudest against how we went about things in the last go-round. I guess "close" and "good" are both relative terms. We are not close to being a 100-win team. We are getting closer to being in the Wild Card discussion. It would still take a whole lot of things to go right for us to be in it this year, and the odds of that are very slim. I fully expect us to trade away some guys at the deadline. Feliz seems to be a no-brainer, and Peralta is probably a good bet to go as well if he continues to pitch well. Both of those guys could bring back some good young talent. I do expect Brinson and at least one SP to come up from the farm this year, and I expect that we will continue to have good talent coming up from the farm every year for the foreseeable future. This will allow us to trade guys who start to get expensive, and whose "team control" is waning. We also have a lot of free cash flow, which we will hopefully be smart about using, and which could land us more talent if used wisely. I do not expect to have to wait until our entire starting rotation is gone and hope that the SP prospects can take us to the promised land. We have talent in the rotation, and I hope/think that some of our current rotation will prove that they belong in the majors. Supplement these guys with talented prospects like Hader/Woodson/Ortiz/others, and possibly someone we pick up using our free cash (free agency or taking on a salary in trade), and we could have a decent rotation to go along with what is seemingly a good offense. That could be enough to get us a Wild Card, maybe as soon as next year, but there are a lot of cards that need to be played before that so we'll have to see where we are at the end of this season before I want to get too crazy talking about playoffs. To topic, I think trading Thames this trade deadline or next offseason would probably hurt us. It always depends on return, and if someone were willing to give us a young MLB ready SP who looks like he's going to be the next Syndergaard, then we'd have to look long and hard at that deal. But realistically we're probably best off holding on to Thames at his low cost for two or three years, and then looking to trade him when he has a year or two left. As I mentioned above, I like to get most of the good play out of a contract, and trade the player when "team control" is waning, and hopefully we'll have a replacement who is ready to take his spot. Someone is always there to give you good prospects for the final year of a good player on a below-market contract.

Yeah, it's nice to have this decent start to the season, but the playoffs are still a long, long shot this year. However, if we see some good signs, like shoring up 1B & 3B with above average players and seeing some of our SP break out, then it is possible we will look at 2018 as a potential playoff year. If that's the case (not saying it is, but if) then the Brewers will try to use some of their free cash flow to land themselves a good starting pitcher, either in free agency or by taking on a lot of salary in trade. I'd love to bring in a good SP if we're using mostly cash instead of top prospects to land him. To this year's rotation, it was nice to see Milone pitch well yesterday. I said above that Milone would basically need a no hitter to save his spot. He didn't do that, but he pitched well against a very good offense. , Both he and Garza are placeholders until Guerra's back and one of them will get some starts until then. I wonder if his outing yesterday is enough for the Brewers to dump Garza, who hasn't shown anything. I guess it's really whether the Brewers like holding onto Garza more then Marinez at this point, as Milone will probably at least be in the pen.

Yeah, there are a lot of question marks in the pen. At this point, one of the goals of the pen is to gain value for trade, as closers are at a premium right now. Feliz is an obvious flip candidate, and when he goes someone like Knebel will step into the closer role. If he can pitch well there, then he will have trade value like Thornberg did this past offseason if they choose to trade him at that time. The bullpen is the last thing we need to address once the other pieces are in place, so once management feels we're ready to compete long-term, then they will look to stabilize the pen. Most of this will probably come from the load of talented pitchers on the farm. Some will make it as starters, but many of them will likely be our future bullpen. Until then, bring in undervalued guys and hope they have a good year and raise their value. Most relievers' numbers are so erratic this is actually a place you can do this, and naming someone "closer" is the easiest way to instantly build value in baseball.

If Thames is for real, you have years of team control on two legitimate .900+ OPS guys in him and Braun, along with several guys who could be .800+ OPS guys in Santana, Shaw and Brinson. Villar has shown the ability to be a 20 HR / 60 SB threat, and both of our catchers (maybe all three) are capable MLB hitters. That could be a strong offense for years. Meanwhile, Peralta and Nelson have the talent to be good pitchers, and they're finally showing some improvement. Anderson has a history as a guy who deserves to be in an MLB rotation, and Davies should be a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter. Plus, our most talented pitchers are still in the minors and will be emerging onto the scene starting this year. All of this, and we have around $50-60M of free cash to spend to fill in any holes we may have. Picking up Thames looks to be a really good move that could have single-handedly moved the "competitive time horizon" up. The Gomez and Lucroy trades were other moves that already did that. We are getting close to being good, and we have to be really careful not to make a move that could harm that. I wouldn't trade Thames for at least a few years unless I got a couple of guys back who look to be sure-thing superstars. We're not getting that in trade, so I'd just hold onto him and enjoy watching him play.

I remember Bosio as a Brewer, when he was so out of shape that he couldn't pitch once the weather heated up, as he turned into a big ball of sweat. I can understand how he can't comprehend how someone who is committed to working out could get into great shape, but for a team filled with guys who hit the ball a long ways, and coming from a hot-headed pitcher who is about five years past the point where most guys can no longer pitch at the MLB level, I wouldn't start throwing around unfounded allegations. If we do want to start tossing around unfounded accusations, I would question how Arrieta became a rock-solid physical specimen who suddenly "learned to pitch" once he became a Cub, and why Rizzo (who was traded away by two teams before suddenly becoming a superstar) occasionally goes into "Roid rage" tantrums on the field. Schwarber is every bit as questionable as Thames when it comes to hitting (did he get tested after his World Series HR?), and ancient Ross was somehow able to play like a 25-year-old star after a grueling season at catcher. And why is it that they were able to go through an entire season with everyone playing at the top of their ability with basically no one other than Schwarber needing any time off for injury? Sounds like something that could happen if they were all on HGH. I think there's a "glass houses" saying when it comes to accusing someone of something with no cause when there are a lot of things for which people could question you. They're probably best served just shutting their mouths and playing. They have nothing to gain from accusing the Brewers of something, when the Brewers are not likely to be very competitive this year. This just seems like something to get the friendly Cub media to divert the attention of the Cub fans to keep them from discussing the fact that the Cubs are not playing good baseball right now. But to me, accusing someone of a fairly serious rules violation in order to justify your own faults is a very classless act, and I wish the media would call them out on it.

Franklin has more positional flexibility. They tried Gennett at other positions, but apparently weren't impressed with what they saw. When we had both Weeks and Gennett on the team, we saw that having a bench player who can only play 2B can hamstring the team. Due to his inability to play other positions, Gennett's days with the Brewers were numbered once they got Shaw and announced Villar would be the everyday 2B. I'm not sold on Villar, but he definitely has a higher ceiling than Gennett, while also having more team control. Although I'm happy we are improving, at this point we are still in rebuild mode, meaning we're looking for guys who could be stars, and guys who could be around for a long time. While Gennett is a capable MLB player, what you see is probably as good as you'll ever get. Villar may bomb, but his higher ceiling is the main reason the Brewers decided on him over Gennett. Personally, I'd have been fine if they had decided to keep Gennett at 2B, move Villar back to SS, and let Arcia start the season in AAA to work on things for a couple of months, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over the decision they made. I manage investments for a living. When you make a trade, you feel you are doing the right thing for your franchise/portfolio. You should do your homework and have valid reasons of making the trade. But once the trade is made, you can't dwell on how the piece you traded off did, or whether you "won" the trade. You just hope the assets you traded for do well. If you continue to look at how well the assets you traded away are doing, you will go insane. In the long run, it's only the really bad mistakes that could derail you if you start off with a valid plan. Trading away a future superstar for one year of a so-so player or letting an extremely valuable trade chip walk away for nothing when you could have traded him would fall in this category. Losing Gennett does not. While no one is perfect and not everything Stearns does will work out, so far it seems he is making moves that are shortening the length of the rebuild and making the future look a whole lot better. I prefer to focus on that.

I don't want to see Milone get another start. Seeing his picture in the "upcoming pitchers" slot virtually eliminates any potential we have of sweeping the Cubs. But, we need a warm body for one more day. Having two starting pitchers on the DL from day 1 sucks. Hopefully Guerra is back soon and we'll stay relatively healthy from here on out. That said, barring him throwing a no-hitter tomorrow, I doubt there's any way he keeps his spot. They need one more outing before Garza will be ready, since he just pitched on Monday. Then Milone will be out of the rotation. I don't have a lot of faith in Garza either, but he will get at least a couple starts until Guerra's ready. As to Milone's future, my guess is that he will remain in the pen since the Brewers don't have any other LHP in the pen. Marinez has not been pitching well, so he seems to me to be the odd man out. Milone is far from secure, but let's see if he can come in and get LH hitters out in a reliever role. That could really help the team, but if he stinks at that he's gone. The silver lining is that we have some good prospects who are not too far off. We're still seeing what we have in some of the MLB guys, but soon we will be dumping some of the guys who don't have it, and replacing them with younger guys with more talent. The way Anderson, Peralta and Nelson are pitching is why it is important to use this year to see what we have in some people. This offseason, we were discussing sending Nelson to AAA, putting Peralta in the 'pen, and dumping Anderson. By giving them a chance, some will sink, some will swim and hopefully in the near future we'll be better off for giving these guys a chance and letting the prospects get some more "seasoning" in the minors. So far, Anderson, Peralta and Nelson have risen, while Milone and Suter have sunk. Given the way he's pitched lately, Garza will probably not do well, but he'll get a chance to see what he can do. Then, the days of "seeing what aging vets have left" will hopefully be over. The MLB rotation will constantly be pitching for their jobs as young, talented guys are doing everything they can to force their way into the MLB rotation. That's a day I've been waiting for for a long time, and it looks like it's nearly here.

I'd guess Milone starts tomorrow and then becomes our LHP out of the 'pen. Garza will take his spot in the rotation and Marinez will get sent to AAA. Garza hasn't done anything to impress anyone so far this spring, including giving up 4 ER in 5.2 IP against Class A Iowa on Monday. He'll get a couple of starts before Guerra comes back to see if he has anything left in the tank. If everyone else is healthy when Guerra returns, that could be the end for Garza as a Brewer. By that time, if another SP goes to the DL we'll just call up a prospect rather than messing around with a washed-up vet.

Yeah, dude's hitting like Albert Pujols. It's a long season and we're only a couple of weeks in, but if he has an All Star season this year and Braun isn't traded, then we should have an above average offense with a strong farm and a lot of free cash to spend. In that scenario, there's no reason to think about trading him away. Maybe when he's got a year left on his contract, but not after year one.

Not sure about the player vs team option (I sure hope it's a team option), but I read the part about "releasing at contract's end" to mean that they cannot offer arbitration once the contract is up, giving up any remaining "team control" and making him a free agent at that time.

Not positive on this, but I think I remember hearing that like Aoki's deal, the Brewer's deal with Thames was worded so that they would eliminate his arby years and he would be a free agent after the three-year deal was done. Edit: From Cot's Eric Thames 1b 3 years/$16M (2017-19), plus 2020 option 3 years/$16M (2017-19), plus 2020 club option signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 11/29/16 17:$4M, 18:$5M, 19:$6M, 20:$7.5M club option ($1M buyout) may earn additional $0.5M annually in performance bonuses assignment bonus if traded may not be optioned or assigned to minors without permission Milwaukee may not tender a contract to Thames and must release him at contract’s end

I think CC went with the order he did in order to sandwich Braun between two LH bats. Braun destroys LHP, and this gives him a pretty good chance of facing LH relievers late in games. I could get on board with batting Arcia 9th, with the pitcher batting 8. No way I'd move him to #2 at this point.

Glad he's off to a hot start. I never understood all skepticism he received after the signing. He put up video game numbers in Korea and Stearns liked him so much he signed him to a three-year deal. I hope he makes that contract look like a steal. As to nicknames, I've been calling him "E.T.," and Aguilar is "Big Jesus."

I'm sure someone in management is aware of the .220 avg / .272 OBP / .352 SLG / .624 OPS line he's posted since being called up. I don't get why Arcia would be immune to potentially being sent down. It happens to prospects (and even vets) all the time. No one would suggest giving up on him, as he is a potentially elite talent, but it is possible that he could benefit from some more time in the minors. I personally would rather have him for another year in his prime, when he is hopefully one of the premiere SS in the game rather than wasting service time watching him struggle in the majors as a 21/22 year old. Hindsight is 20/20, but we probably could have got just as good of play out of Rivera if we had made him our starting SS instead of Arcia last year. Meanwhile, Arcia would likely be better prepared this year to come up as the "shortstop of the future," and we would have one more year of his prime under team control. That obviously didn't happen, but right now we have to look at what is best for Arcia as a player and the Brewers as a franchise over the long term. If he continues to hit the way he has, then there is a possibility that sending him down for a while is in the best interest of both him and the team long-term.

Cheap middle reliever who knows how to miss bats. Looks like a guy who could be worth taking a shot on.

Only because they will be used to it by then ;-)

If Barnes and Knebel continue to perform like they have the first week, they'll easily top 70 wins. Villar may make 30 errors and fan 200 times and that will be hard to overcome though. Why is it that its too early to tell on everyone, 8 games into the season, small sample size, nothing to worry about with guys like Perez and his .154 OBP, but for Villar all the small samples matter? With Villar, we're looking at whether he can be a good starting player for us, while for Perez we're looking at whether he can be a decent super-utility guy. Perez has shown an inability to walk his whole career, so he probably won't start now. He can still be a decent super-utility guy. Villar played bad defense last year, and is continuing to play bad defense this year. That seriously negates his potential to be a valuable starter for us for a few years and a valuable trade chip in a few years. We were never told that the Brewers were hoping Perez would suddenly take walks this season. We were told that the Brewers felt a move to 2B would be more natural for Villar, and they expected him to be a better defender there, and so far (in a small sample of games) he has not been a good defender there. I'm not calling for his head, but there is reason to have some worry, and the potential negative from Villar not being able to hold down a position is far greater than the potential negative from Perez not improving his walk rate. Conversely, the potential positive if Villar stops making the mental errors is tremendous. He could be a valuable player, even an All-Star, if he can put things together. That potential is why I'm far more concerned over what's going on with Villar than anything that can happen with Perez.

There are options, though. Villar could go back to shortstop if need be (indeed, I feel his presence mitigated AGAINST calling up Arcia given his struggles at Colorado Springs). Hernan Perez could play there, too. In AAA, there is Ryan Cordell, who saw stints at SS in 2015 in the minors, Nate Orf, and Yadiel Rivera. Clancy brings up a solid point in the second line. The Brewers called up Arcia last year at a point when they didn't have to, and Arcia wasn't forcing the issue with his play. He had a great year at AA, but struggled (as many do) when he moved up to AAA. There was no reason to call him up, as he probably needed more "seasoning" in the minors. Taking a struggling young player and advancing him to the majors didn't seem to me to be the best decision at the time. I understand that he bears the title "top prospect," but that means they should do what they can to put him in situations where he is most likely to succeed. We're only a few games into the season, but if he doesn't show some improvement soon, for his own good and for the long-term good of the franchise it seems that he should be sent down for a while. There, he can take what he's learned at the MLB level, work on some things, and hopefully come back much better.

1) Overreaction. We've played two very good teams and we lost Guerra three innings into the season. Things will get better 2) Slight overreaction. He may have had his best year last year, but he can still be a valuable super-utility guy. 3) Overreaction. He may not put up the MVP-caliber numbers he had in the 2nd half of last year over an entire year (few can), but I think he can be a good player. 4) Barring injury, I doubt it. Aguilar is hot, but there's a reason we got him on the waiver wire. Unless he's the second coming of David Ortiz, we're likely to see him cool off and turn into a useful power bat off the bench who occasionally spells Thames at first base. I think Thames has a much better chance of being sustainably good than Aguilar. 5) A year ago, we thought Nelson was our ace-in-the-making, and Peralta was our #1. I hope both of them regain that lost luster, as both of them have the talent to be better than Davies, even if Davies is on. Anderson and Davies should be somewhere in the 3-5 slots of a decent rotation. 6) Quite possibly, but I hope not. 7) I would say Villar will never play well at an IF position. Technically, everyone who has ever played has been "passable" in someone's eyes.

His .167 BA is still higher than Santana (.111), Perez (.095), Broxton (.091), and Nieuwenhuis (.077). It happens. They'll all improve.

I'd guess they kept Milone as a LHP in the pen who could serve as protection in case a starter got hurt until the point in the season hit where they were ready to start the clock on a promising prospect. We've had a pretty bad start, with our #1 getting hurt early in his first start, and our #2 guy getting shelled. Milone and Suter have both looked pretty bad, and our rotation needs help, so I think it's time to call Lopez back up to see how he does. Much of this also comes down to the schedule. People talk about spring training being too long, but pitchers still aren't 100% ready when the season opens. That's why teams usually get extra days off early in the season. For some reason, the schedule-makers decided to stick it to the Brewers a bit this year and not give them much rest for the first month while facing the best offenses in the league. That mixed with some injuries and under-performance could end up costing us Magnifico.

While we were a bit sloppy in the first series, there are some positives: 1) After Guerra's injury and Davies' short start, Peralta and Anderson both stepped up and pitched well. Both of these guys could be solid contributors to the Brewers for a few years, or could be traded if the prospects force them out. Peralta has the tools to be at the top of the rotation, while Anderson can be a solid middle-of-the rotation arm. If they can pitch well this season, then we could stick around .500 this year. 2) Our new "corners" looked good. Shaw and Thames both come into the season with question marks attached to them, and hit the ground running. Both of these guys have the potential to be good MLB players at positions where the Brewers have had need for a while. 3) Braun is still Braun. It may have been in the best long-term interest of the franchise to have been able to trade him for a good haul, but if we're going to be "stuck" with someone, Braun's not a bad guy to be "stuck" with. 4) Our catchers look capable. After trading away a star in Lucroy, we could have been sitting with a black hole at catcher for years. Thankfully, it looks like we have some guys who can at least hold their own at the position at the MLB level. 5) To me, Arcia looks more confident at the plate. The Brewers brought him up early, stating that they thought that would be the best thing for his continued growth. Hopefully with some experience under his belt he can take the next step in his development. 6) The bullpen was worked hard, but some guys showed that while young, there is talent in the 'pen. It's only a few games in and a lot can change. These are just a few things that I thought were bright spots in a disappointing series.

Good. We have a window here with Guerra and Garza on the DL to give a final test to Jungmann to see if there's any reason to believe he can still be a starter. Pretty soon, we'll start calling up the more talented SP prospects, so it's now or never for Taylor. If he doesn't cut it, then stick him in the bullpen in AAA to get him used to being a reliever so hopefully he can find a way to help the MLB club.

My least favorite is that the Brewers have only won one game, while losing three :-(

Neither am I but with our starting rotation I wonder if it isn't going to be necessary. Like others, I like the versatility and another lefty off the bench. I get the logic of that, but with the short outings in the first two games, we've blown through the bench, limiting Counsell's options, while we still have a couple of relievers who haven't pitched. I guess either way can blow up on you, depending on the situation. One important thing this year will be having bullpen arms who we can option to/from Colorado when we have a few short starts in a row. DFA'ing Blazek to pick up Franklin may hurt our ability to do this, but we don't have a lot of 40-man position player who deserve to be called up right now, so this move probably makes sense.