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monty57

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Everything posted by monty57

  1. monty57
    I'm far less qualified than many on this board about projecting prospects or putting together potential trades, but the Texas system seems to have a pretty good group of pitchers who could be targeted without looking at the top guys in the system. Brett Martin (Age 21, LHP in High A, Texas' #5 prospect per MLB.com) and Joe Palumbo (Age 22, LHP in A, Texas' #6 prospect) were already mentioned as possible targets. They also have Cole Ragans (age 19 LHP, Drafted #30 overall last year, Rookie Ball, Texas' #9 prospect) and Alex Speas (Age 19 RHP, Texas' 2nd round pick last year, Texas' #10 prospect). They also have Conner Sadzeck (RHP), who is 25 and can hit triple digits with his fastball. He could be part of the 2017 roster and is possibly a future closer, if we were looking for more immediate help. I think getting one of the first two and one of the last three would be a pretty good return for Peralta. If we could land three of them, I'd be really happy. Ragans and Speas look like guys Stearns would target, but Texas just spent a combined $3M on them in last years' draft, so they probably like them as well :-)
  2. monty57
    The Rangers are trying to compete, so I'd say that if they are after him it's because they think he can help them win now. If they think he can help them win now, then they would give up something of value for him, and his team control is also very meaningful. I don't expect a top prospect for Peralta, but we should be able to get meaningful talent for him. If we can't, then we just hold onto him. It makes some sense to trade one of our starters now, but if we can't find a good deal, I'd rather dump Garza and eat his salary than give away Peralta for little return.
  3. monty57
    When we get in a position where we have so many talented prospects that we are going to start losing MLB-quality prospects to things like Rule 5 is when I will have less of a problem with the team trading some prospects for MLB help. If the stars align, that will be about the time we're realistically looking at being a strong competitor at the MLB level. A MLB relief pitcher right now has far less value than simply holding onto Peralta and hoping he's finally "found it" and can become a top of the rotation starter. Heck, if he hasn't "found it," then he could just be moved to the bullpen if we're in need of relief help.
  4. monty57
    We could still see a trade made, but at this point, I'd go with: Pina as backup catcher Kirk N as primary CF backup, also backing up corner OF Gennett as backup 2B/3B/corner OF Perez as backup at every position except pitcher or catcher. Aguilar as backup 1B / "power bat off bench" When Arcia needs a day off, I'd try to sit him vs a RHP, when I'd put Villar at SS and Gennett at 2B. If an OF is injured for an extended period, I'd call up Brinson.
  5. monty57
    Even if the catcher isn't called up later, I like having a solid catcher at AAA working with the young, talented pitching prospects.
  6. monty57
    Peralta is a big question mark, but there is no reason for the Brewers to trade him away unless they get something decent back in return. If we were talking about Garza, then yeah, dump him for salary relief, but Peralta is 27 with team control and has a chance of pitching well. Since they gain no benefit from dumping him, they might as well keep him to see if they can benefit from his upside unless someone offers something you like. A team would probably not give up a good high-minors prospect for Peralta right now, but Stearns is a low-minors nugget miner who spent a lot of time last season studying the Rangers' system. I could see him netting a few teenagers who have a chance of ending up on the Top 100 lists in a year or two. Otherwise, hold onto him until trade deadline. If he continues to pitch like he did in the second half of last season, you will get a whole lot more for him than you'll get right now.
  7. monty57
    Kirk has been red hot over the last couple weeks so he appears secure but Perez handled CF pretty well when he was out there. "Pretty well" as in he probably won't trip over himself and will catch balls hit at him, or "pretty well" as in he can run like a gazelle and make amazing plays like most MLB center fielders? At the MLB level, "pretty well" is not acceptable in most cases. Melvin accepted bad defense as long as the player could hit for power. I think Stearns values defense a lot more than Melvin, so we will probably see a lot better defense going forward than we have in the past. It's why Santana was told last year that he wasn't going to play any more CF when Melvin had him starting there, it's probably a big part of the reason Carter was let go, and it's why he's acquiring the type of players he is acquiring in the moves he's making, particularly at the minor league level. To topic, the Brewers are testing Gennett at multiple positions, and hopefully he'll show enough aptitude at 3B and corner OF that he can play a few games there. He's close to useless to the Brewers if he can only play 2B, so getting some positional flexibility gives the team more options. With the players they're acquiring, I doubt he'll be good enough at any position that he will ever be a full-time starter for the Brewers again, but at least if he can play four positions, he'll log some PAs and give some guys a break now and then.
  8. monty57
    Arcia is not riding the bench. He may get sent down, but he won't be relegated to bench duty. Sending him down would likely open up a starting spot at 2B for Gennett, but I don't think it's likely. To a lesser extent, the same holds true with Santana. If he hits as poorly as he can possibly hit, he'll still be a better bat than Gennett, so they might sit him to bring Brinson up, but not to allow Gennett to play RF. I agree with you that Gennett is being groomed this spring to back up 2B, 3B, and corner OF, but he will not be a regular (or even a platoon) in RF while Santana is healthy. As to Kirk N., he will likely make the opening day roster just to be the backup CF. Perez and Gennett will likely get most of the backup time at the corners, but Kirk needs to be around to back up CF.
  9. monty57
    No reason to trade Broxton now, just let things play out through this season. It appears Braun is going to be a Brewer for the rest of his contract, so the best case scenario is for Braun, Brinson, Broxton and Santana to all play well. If that happens, we will probably have to look at trading one of Broxton, Brinson or Santana next offseason. In this scenario, Broxton or Santana should be able to bring back far more than they would net right now, we would have three excellent OFs, and we'd have a lot more young talent from the trade. If someone doesn't pan out, or someone gets injured, then we should still have three very good OF.
  10. monty57
    Might be true if we were competing, but not really true in a rebuild. We likely traded Maldonado for Bandy in order to gain a younger guy with higher upside and more team control. Whether he starts in the MLB this year or next year was probably a secondary focus at the time of the trade.
  11. monty57
    If we have any faith in the Brewer scouting department, then we have to be, or at least we have to give him some benefit of the doubt. Thames was signed to a three-year deal to be a starter, so his spring bats are pretty much meaningless. Aguilar was picked up from the proverbial scrap heap to try to compete for the final bench spot. His spring PAs are meaningful for him to try to secure that spot. However, if he makes the team and falls flat over the first month or two, there will be no hesitation to dump him and bring up someone else. Hopefully, if Aguilar makes the opening day roster, he will provide a nice bat off the bench, and give Thames some time off against some LHP. It will be a big setback to the rebuild if Aguilar becomes our regular starting first baseman for a reason other than a short-term Thames injury.
  12. monty57
    I hope that the split leans heavily in favor of the "27 year old in hopes of breakout," with Pina getting a start or two a week. Meanwhile the "27 year old in hope of breakout" who goes to AAA gets to play nearly everyday there so he's ready when he gets the call. Pina has shown some promise, so there's reason to believe that he can put up adequate numbers as a backup. I like the depth of having three catchers who are capable of playing in the majors. No reason to jettison one of them when you have the option of stashing someone at AAA.
  13. monty57
    I like having three MLB caliber catchers on the 40-man so you can call someone up if one of your MLB guys goes on the DL. Since Pina has no options, that means he stays, likely as the backup. That puts the real battle between which of Susac/Bandy will start at the MLB level, and which will start at AAA. I agree with the consensus of the board that to this point Bandy has easily won that battle.
  14. monty57
    He's only started 5 games at SS in his MLB career, plus 7 games where he played SS without starting there for a total of 56.2 IP. He can play there in a pinch, but I wouldn't want him to be the guy getting every start when Arcia needs a day off, and going in defensively in close games if Arcia is pinch hit for. I'd much rather see Villar move to SS with Perez or Gennett coming in to play 2B. But, as I mentioned earlier, if they don't want Villar moving from 2B this year, I'd rather see Rivera or deJesus retained as the backup SS even if it means we have a relatively weak-hitting bench.
  15. monty57
    Barring a trade, I think the decision is basically whether they want to keep Rivera or DeJesus on the roster to back up SS, or if they will use Villar at SS when Arcia needs a day off. If they're willing to do the latter, then there is no need to keep DeJesus or Rivera on the 25-man, freeing up a spot for Aguilar. If they don't want to move Villar, then I don't really trust Perez to be the backup SS, so they may need to keep DeJesus or Rivera. With a lot of positional flexibility on the roster, I have no problem keeping a guy like Aguilar as the "big bat off the bench." This is much better than a few years ago when we had Overbay and Reynolds who should have only played 1B (although Reynolds was forced to 3B), and Weeks and Gennett who would only play 2B.
  16. monty57
    He wouldn't have been as highly touted if he was simply a guy who could play excellent defense but couldn't hit. That's what Rivera is, and there are guys like that all over the minors. He has the potential to be a good player. I just wonder if right now he and the Brewers are better off with him in the MLB lineup every day or if he could use more time in AAA. I hope he's up because the Brewers truly believe that playing in the majors is the best thing for his development, and not because they want to show the fans one of their well-known prospects to keep them interested. It seems to me like we're trading in a year of his prime (when hopefully we'll be a good team) for a year when he's still not quite ready as a hitter (and we're not competing for the playoffs).
  17. monty57
    They'd better hope Thornburg's muscles "get used to it" quickly. Spring training is half over. I agree with Thurston that they seem to be pretty bad at communicating the program. For a team that can easily spend $200M in payroll, you'd think they could have afforded to send a trainer to Thornburg's home town for a few days after the trade to get him started on the program early.
  18. monty57
    I agree. It wouldn't be a bad idea to start him in AAA, but I don't think there's any chance it happens. Personnel-wise, all we would need to do is move Villar back to SS, and platoon Gennett/Perez at 2B, and we'd probably keep Rivera or DeJesus as backup SS. If there was any chance of this happening, they would have Villar spending some time at SS, with Genentt playing more 2B. This isn't happening, so there seems to be no chance they'll start Arcia at AAA. That said, if he isn't ready, then he shouldn't be up. I hope that the new regime cares more for the long-term benefit to the team and the player than the short-term cares of the "casual fan." I have faith in Stearns, and it seems that Attanasio has learned from past mistakes, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they believe that Arcia is ready, and playing in the majors is better for him and the team for the long-term than having him take the experience he got last year to Colorado to hone his skills so he will come back to the Brewers better ready to help them win.
  19. monty57
    I'm no Kirk fan but getting worked up about a 1-16 start in spring training is the most absurd thing i've read all day. I sure wish they mattered, as the Brewers currently have 11 players with an OPS of 1.000 of greater, and another three over .900.
  20. monty57
    1. Counsell doesn't have the final say on roster decisions. 2. Nieuwenhuis has a split contract this year which pays much less if he's in the minors, so they must have at least considered that he might not make the team. The question is who you'd want to be our 5th OF instead. 3. They need a backup center fielder. Gennett and Perez can't do that on a regular basis, and the team stated last year that they do not want Santana playing there. I agree that he's virtually a lock to make the opening day roster, but barring injury I don't think he will have a big role this year. I think Perez will be the primary backup at corner OF, and Kirk will be the primary backup at CF. Should an OF go on the DL, Brinson is a phone call away. With Gennett and Perez able to back up the corners (and Thames if it comes to that), I doubt they keep a true "5th OF" on the roster. The final spot will likely be determined by whether they'd like to keep Aguilar's bat, a slick-fielding defensive IF, or an extra bullpen arm. Not that I have any say in the matter, but right now I'd like to see them keep the power bat off the bench in Aguilar.
  21. monty57
    The 6 years younger is a decent enough reason, but there is a difference between whether they "can hit" and the 44 wRC+ Yadiel is projected for. A dozen pitchers will likely outhit that number. If we are going to keep a 3rd middle infield type, I wish they would have just kept Andrianza, but oh well. I'd prefer they just use Perez for back-up shortstop, I saw that too. If he's really that bad, I would hope the Brewers would have dumped him long ago, or at least wouldn't waste spring PAs on him. I'd guess that projection might be slightly off :-)
  22. monty57
    If they go with a five-man bench, Kirk N is probably a shoo in, as they need someone who can play center field. Perez and Gennett are in as utility guys, and Pina will likely be the backup catcher. So really, it depends on whether they want to use Villar as the backup SS or if they only want him manning 2B. If he's the backup, then they will probably go with Aguilar as the power bat off the bench. If they want to carry a "defense-first" utility guy who can play SS, then I'd rather keep Rivera than de Jesus. Neither of them can hit, so we might as well keep the guy who is homegrown and six years younger. With Perez and Gennett able to cover every position except catcher, center field and SS, and Villar able to back-up SS, it's possible we go with a four-man bench to start the season in order to get an extra arm in the 'pen.
  23. monty57
    That sums it up pretty well. We'd have the option of trading away a good OF prospect to help make the team better, as we have a pending logjam there, but otherwise I wouldn't want to trade away much in order to increase the odds for 2017. Brinson for a similarly talented young SP with lots of team control might be okay, but Brinson for a veteran SP at the end of his contract would not be okay. That said, I wouldn't fire sale MLB assets. If they're playing well, we could always trade guys like Nelson and Peralta in the offseason, as they have plenty of team control.
  24. monty57
    It would make trading him a lot more difficult. It's possible he would tell Stearns that he's fine with a trade to the Dodgers or some other team, but unless he expressly gives Stearns the go-ahead, there is no reason Stearns should pursue a trade of a player with full no trade rights. Additionally, any team trading for Braun would be most interested in this year. Every year older he gets makes him a little less valuable, and the final years of the contract are likely to be his worst years. Therefore, the longer you wait, the less you'll get in return, and I don't think the return would be huge right now without us eating a bunch of money. There are plenty of formerly great players who are a shadow of their former selves by the time their contract runs out. I hope Braun will still be decent by the time his contract is over, but he very likely won't be nearly as good as he is right now. Finally, if we are looking at potentially trading him in the future vs today, every day he plays there is a chance of injury. There is no reason to take that risk if the goal is to trade him. Basically, if you are looking to trade him, you do it before opening day. Otherwise, I'll assume he's going to be a Brewer for life.
  25. monty57
    Of the four highest OPS teams in baseball last year only Boston had fewer than 1,100 ABs by sub .700 hitters (BOS with 577 ABs, COL with 1,247 ABS, CHC with 1,106 ABs, and DET with 1,874 ABs). So it's possible, I just think it's very unlikely. Maybe this shows that a .700 OPS threshold isn't low enough to draw many conclusions from. Each team has about 5,500 ABs in a season, so we're only talking about 20% of a teams ABs, how the other 80% breaks down is probably more informative of a team's total offense. Anyways, not trying to be combative, just curious and found it interesting to dig into a little As long as the sub-.700 guy is a whiz defensively, I'm fine with that. Last year's Brewers had a lot of those bad PAs going to guys who couldn't field very well and just had all-around bad years. Hopefully that's not going to happen as much this year. Arcia could be sub-.700, but still be a plus to the team due to his hopefully elite-level defense. Shaw could be sub-.700, and is supposed to be a good defender, so he could still at least have some value even if the bat doesn't come around. The catchers... well, we have three of them so hopefully at least one of them steps up and has a good season. Other than that, barring injuries I don't see any other potential sub-.700 positions. To topic of the thread, I'm very excited to see what Broxton brings this season. The Brewers could be in an interesting position if everyone stays healthy and productive, as all three of their MLB OFs have All-Star potential, and possibly their best OF going forward is sitting in AAA and looks to be MLB ready.
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