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Everything posted by monty57
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The 2017 Brewers... What is Your View?
monty57 replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
We gave 998 PAs this year to players with an OPS .650 or under who are not pitchers and we still had a decent offense. Arcia is one of those, and hopefully he would improve next year. If we can replace most of the rest with PAs from guys like Santana and Perez instead of Flores and Walsh, that could make a big difference. Even without Lucroy, I think out offense will be passable. Obviously the pitching is the big question mark and the reason we will not be a playoff team. We will probably start with basically what we're throwing out there now, and that's not good enough. However, guys like Hader and Ortiz, maybe Lopez if CS didn't destroy him, can hit the MLB rotation and "get their feet wet." Hopefully at this time next year we will be looking at a much more promising rotation going into 2018. Maybe there are growing pains and it takes a little longer, but the foundation is being laid, and we have a lot of talent on the horizon to go along with a boatload of free cash flow to allocate when the time is right. -
The 2017 Brewers... What is Your View?
monty57 replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If you think this team could be in the wild card race you are sipping on some good stuff. The Brewers are on pace for 72 wins this year (halfway between the dreaded 100 loss vs .500 record debate prior to the season). St. Louis currently holds the second wild card spot, on pace for 86 wins. I think that if we hold onto Braun, we should be better next year, probably pushing .500. I think the push to the Wild Card race should target 2018. It would be asking a lot to add 14 wins from this year to next, especially with no real big name we could pick up via free agency to add a lot of wins. Probably best served to let Hader and Ortiz work into the rotation and Brinson into CF in 2017. If they pan out, we could have a fairly strong base going into 2018, and a FA acquisition or two could put us in the playoff picture. Now, if we trade Braun, which very well could happen this offseason, then we'll have to see how things shake out. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers play things this offseason. -
Kind of. Hernan "The Hurricane" Iribarren was a one-time Brewer prospect who was loved on these boards. He fizzled out, and Molitor Fan's post probably explains why. Good to see he got his life in order, and hopefully he can have a couple of good years in the majors.
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This. This is exactly how I feel. All well and good but name a successful major league team that did not have one power hitting lefty bat in the lineup somewhere? It's not so much about position as it is having a lineup that's balanced. Almost all the Brewer hitting prospects above A ball bat right handed Maybe Phillips can turn it around and be that guy and/or they can use an OF surplus to deal for a 1B, otherwise it might take the wave of Clark, Ray and Erceg to get some real pop from the left side. When will that be? 2019? Show me the team that's won anything when their pitching sucked. The Brewers are in rebuild mode and while they have laid a foundation to build upon, they still have multiple holes to fill. Right now, I'd rather stockpile as many talented players as they can in the minors and let the pieces sort themselves. As you mentioned, they have procured multiple LH bats in the minors, which is something they haven't had much success at in the past. Some of those guys will pan out, and once we're closer to competing, we will fill in the holes on the MLB roster through FA and/or trades. All things being equal, I would have preferred a pitcher, or maybe a LH bat, or a power hitting corner IF, but all things aren't going to be equal. We had a list, and Stearns figured this was the best player on that list. I would certainly rather have a player like Cordell, who has a legitimate shot at being an MLB player, than someone who isn't that good but happens to hit LH, or be a pitcher. All in all, we ended up with three top prospects who are succeeding in AA or above and therefore should be able to help the MLB team in the not-too-distant future. That's not too bad.
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I'm surprised that Stearns didn't get at least one teenager from the low minors in the deal. But if the worst piece is Texas' #6 prospect who looks like he has a decent shot of having an MLB career, that's not too bad. This isn't "the straw that broke the camel's back," but I think the writing's on the wall that the Brewers are going to heavily shop Ryan Braun this offseason. Having a whole bunch of guys who could be average-to-good MLB players is a good thing when you are likely trading away your MVP left fielder. It will be fun to see who steps forward and grabs the positions.
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I was sitting by the scouts and Beloit, and asked one of them how someone who gets so many K's can get squared up on like he does (all the hits off of him were rockets). He just laughed and said "he misses his spot a lot."
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The 2017 Brewers... What is Your View?
monty57 replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think our days of making a ton of moves are behind us. Our position players are pretty well set, and I don't see anyone being traded unless we're blown away. What we see now for position players is probably what we'll see on opening day. Meanwhile, Brinson should be up fairly early, so the big question is whether there will be an injury allowing him to step in, or if he just takes someone's spot. Broxton and Santana are both talented, but either one could sit when Brinson's ready. Pitching will be the reason we're not in the playoff picture. Hader should be in the opening day rotation, or at the very least brought up pretty quickly. Ortiz is still young, but could very well see the majors next year. Hopefully Peralta has "found it," and his recent play continues, and hopefully Nelson can take the next step and become a solid #2 starter. I think the foundation's laid, 2017 will be a year when more good prospects hit the MLB roster and we get a better read on some players, and it will lead to us hitting the FA market and being competitive again in 2018. -
Perez has shown the ability to play all over the field without it adversely affecting him offensively or defensively. That's valuable, and that's why I think the best role for him is as a super-sub, playing nearly every day at the position he's needed. If we get a great offer for a Gennett or Villar, then it may make sense to trade them, giving Perez an everyday position, but otherwise just let Perez get his PAs in the "Ben Zobrist role."
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That's fine as long as he's the backup. If he's the starter, it means that offensively he's probably the worst starting catcher in the league. You need to check out what some teams trot out there as there starting catcher sometime. Even some very good teams have had catchers that are having an awful offensive season, Cleveland this year and the Dodgers in years past... There are at least six catchers that have more than 200 ab's this season that are hitting worse than Maldy. I understand that. I was just stating that if he's 33rd, that means there are 32 better than him, and there are only 30 teams in the majors. I understand where we are as a team right now, and that we won't have good players at every position, but that just makes me more interested in seeing what one of the pre-arby guys can do. If we have a position with a question mark, all other things being equal, they should fill that position with a younger, cheaper guy. Pina is only a year younger (Maldonado's 30, Pina 29), but Maldonado is in year one arby making $1.125M, while Pina is still in his fist pre-arby year, and Susac is 26 with one year's service time. I personally think both Susec and Pina could do better than Maldonado, but even if they all project to provide equal value, Maldonado should be the odd-man out unless they decide to keep either Pina or Susec in AAA next year.
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That's fine as long as he's the backup. If he's the starter, it means that offensively he's probably the worst starting catcher in the league. Since he'll make a seven figure salary next year and probably won't be any better than our other options, I'd like to see Pina and Susec as our catchers next year, but I won't be upset if Martin is still around. Having three guys that can play at the MLB level (one at AAA) isn't a bad thing.
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Santana has been awful in the field Not to take this too far off topic, but I watched a couple of T-Rats games in Beloit when Santana was there, and he did not appear to be trying at all. He seemed more interested in laughing and joking around with teammates than in playing baseball. This could have been because he was playing in A-ball and didn't care too much, but as a fan of his I lost some respect for him. Has anyone who has been at games noticed this from him on the MLB level? Watching on TV, it just looks like he takes awful routes and doesn't have a good glove, but is this because he's not that good, or because he doesn't care? I'm all for playing the young guys, but if it's the latter, maybe sitting his butt on the bench to show him that he's not entitled to a starting job is exactly what he needs.
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Brent Suter's contract selected, will start tomorrow in Seattle
monty57 replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't know how much validity there is to this, but Doug Davis used to say that he needed to keep his FB below "hitting speed" which he said was around 88-89 MPH. He felt that his success came from keeping below this level, and when he got into that level, he got hit hard. If he was right, then if you can't throw in the 90's, you're better off in the mid-80's than the upper-80's. BTW, his average FB velocity was 84.8, and Suter so far has been at 84.6. Moyer's last year was at 77.4. Of course, doing a very quick check of a few lefties, I see that Keuchel (HOU) and Garcis (StL) both sit in the 88-89 MPH range, so maybe Davis was just blowing smoke :-) The moniker "soft tossing lefty" is around for a reason, so I'm sure there are other lefties who have gotten by without fastballs in the 90's, probably moreso in the past then in today's game, but it's not unheard of. The odds may be against Suter, but based on what he's done in the minors, I think he should get a shot to see if he can do anything. That's what rebuilding seasons like this are all about. -
I wanted Rogers to do well, but he's 28 and having a tough season, mostly in AAA. Supak is 20 and having a decent season. Trading Rogers for him straight up may have been a fair trade. Getting Broxton and Supak appears to be a pretty lopsided trade. Sure glad Stearns didn't do what everyone (including me) expected and simply stick Rogers in at 1B to see what he could do. Broxton is looking like a potential break-out candidate, Carter is worth more than we're paying him and gives us a viable option at 1B for a couple years, and we have another promising arm in the low minors. Good job Mr. Stearns.
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And then trade him for a haul next offseason. Broxton allows the Brewers to keep Brinson down to start next year. It also allows the team to get a better view of Santana. If Broxton keeps it up, and if Brinson is as good as hoped, and if Santana proves himself to be a good MLB regular, then it allows us to do something with Braun (trade him or move him to 1B). That's a lot of "ifs," so for right now, I'm happy to see Broxton doing well, and to see Santana healthy. Let the rest play itself out, but I'd highly doubt that Broxton will be traded away if he continues to play well.
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Brent Suter's contract selected, will start tomorrow in Seattle
monty57 replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Good for Suter. Let's hope he can pitch well and earn a rotation spot going into 2017. -
He was/is the Brewers #1 prospect. That's why people expect him to be better than MLB average OPS, no matter how good his defense is. I don't have those expectations, just pointing out why many fans expect more. If he was the 18th ranked prospect, it wouldn't be an issue. Agree. I've commented on this before, but there don't appear to be any Bryce Harper/Mike Trout type players in the minors at this time. These are generational talent, and therefore aren't very common, so not all "#1 prospects" are created equally. Fans shouldn't assume that just because someone is "#1" that they will automatically be a superstar... most aren't. Rankings are subjective. Arcia should be a good player, but his stock/ranking rose quickly after his breakout season in Biloxi that gave people a glimpse of what he could be, which is a Gold Glove caliber defender that can hit for average and power. Maybe he'll be that player, or maybe he'll "just" be a Gold Glove caliber defender who is an average hitter. Time will tell, but he should at the very least be a decent MLB player, which isn't always easy to find at SS. Because rankings are subjective, the "list-makers" could just as easily have put guys like Hader and Brinson ahead of Arcia, and given time there are likely others who will break out and surpass Arcia's projections. Would people be less antsy if Arcia was the #3 prospect and a meaningless article was written about him? The bottom line is that we have a lot of talent in the minors. Some will exceed expectations, some will play to expectation, and some will not reach expectations. By having a lot of talented prospects, we have a pretty good shot at having some guys turn into stars and a bunch of guys turn into MLB players. We are getting a chance now to see how Arcia pans out. He's a safe bet to be a good player, so let's give him a chance to show us what he can do before we get too worried about what one writer thinks he will be, especially when plenty of scouts and writers have a higher opinion of him than that one writer.
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True, but a team can't win if they have below-competition players everywhere. We all want to celebrate the farm system and prospects who we've been following through the minors. And the Brewers organization has insisted (and I agree) that they have to have good, young, affordable, home-grown players in order to compete. But don't they have to produce players who are better than the players being produced by other teams, if they want to win? I don't know enough about Arcia to know if he's being rated too high or not. He's probably going to be fine, and it will be fun to see what the pitching staff can do with an elite defender behind them. But when I read the fangraphs post and Alcides Escobar is the comp, I am reminded about how every year there is a prospect who gets hyped, and sometimes they don't live up to expectations. The knock on the system prior to this year's trade deadline was that while there was a lot of talent, it lacked "star" talent. I think the guys we picked up at the trade deadline (and adding Ray in the draft) have the potential to be star players. Adding that talent to the likes of Arcia, Hader and others makes me believe that there is little worry that we will only have "below competition level" talent coming up. Over the next few years, we will graduate a lot of talent from the farm to the majors. Some of them will be really good players, and even the ones who are just role-players will still help the team when they're playing for league minimum. I am very excited to see how our prospects perform as they're called up, and I think we should have a strong core of young players, complemented with inexpensive role-players freeing up cash to extend the core and add free agents. Don't let one article about Arcia bring you down.
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I think this is hilarious, and I wish someone in the media would have the guts to ask Cub management exactly what Fear the Chorizo asked (Why fire the guy who highlighted the fact that you are employing a wife beater? Why not fire the wife beater?)
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It would be nice if the Brewers could just agree to play in a college stadium somewhere until this is worked out, but with all of the contracts the MLB has with everyone, their options are going to be very limited. If the Brewers still had a weak system, they could just stockpile everyone in Biloxi, and field the AAA team with checkout boys from the local grocery store, but with the current farm, they have to put talented players in a position that could hurt their development. Sucks when you have to try to find ways not to utilize your final stage of development.
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Prince Fielder's career ends due to medical issues
monty57 replied to MrTPlush's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
From the article: "The terms of his retirement are unclear, although, as Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets, the Rangers are “believed to have” a significant enough insurance policy on Fielder’s contract to protect them against a career-threatening problem like the one Fielder currently has." If true, that makes it sound like Fielder will still be paid, and the insurance company will cover it. Generally, I believe a player retiring voids the contract. That's why NY fans wanted A-Rod to retire, and Astro fans were pretty much booing Bagwell in his later years when he was a shadow of his former self while playing injured, but making huge money. If Passan is correct, I'd guess that the Rangers and Fielder worked things out legally so he still gets paid, but the Rangers will be covered. -
I agree. Sure it would've been great to trade him for a big haul, but you could say the same about a lot of players. Other teams see the same things we see, and I can't imagine anyone was going to give up too much for a journeyman pitcher having a good season in his early 30's. If he can put together another good season next year, then that could be a different story. Until then, I hope the injury isn't serious, and Guerra comes back and continues to pitch well for the Brewers.
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brewers asking price for lu from mets
monty57 replied to patrickgpe's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
And a good portion of his team control will be getting things back together after TJ. It can take a year or so from when most pitchers are okayed to pitch before they're back to their pre-TJ level of success. Therefore, by the time he'd be ready to help us, we'd be trading him away for prospects. The Mets know they don't want to have him getting back to par in their MLB rotation, so they keep trying to dump him onto the Brewers. I'm glad Melvin was saved from himself when the Mets backed out of the deal, and I'm glad Stearns chose other teams' proposals over the Mets'. -
People are putting too much on Counsell. The coaches job is to do what he can to win this season with what he's given. The owner's job is to set the direction of the franchise. The GM's job is to put together a group of people that will fulfill the owner's goals. If Kirk N. is on the team, the GM put him there, and must have a reason for him being there. Counsell has some input on roster management, but that ultimately comes down to people higher up the totem pole. Counsell's job is to take the 25 men he's given and do his best to win. If Stearns or Attanasio want to either see more of Broxton for the future, or see more of Kirk N. for potential trade, then they can trump Counsell and force him to play someone, but unless that happens, Counsell should try to win. That said, I don't think he's doing a bad job of getting playing time for players. Out of the gate, all of his CF stunk and Santana got hurt. He's been force to play with a bad hand, and he's been okay doing that. Most probably wouldn't have thrown Perez into RF when he's never played there, and if the sole goal is looking at young guys, we would have seen a lot more of Flores. Kirk N. has held his own. He's not young, and is really a backup OF, but without his contributions this year, we would have looked really bad. Around trade deadline, he was not looking good, but then he hit a bit of a hot streak, which hopefully will pad his numbers enough to allow us to get a "lottery ticket" for him. I too would like to see Broxton out there everyday, but I can't fault the manager for trying to keep all of his players fresh, or for doing his best to win games.
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How did this turn into a Davis thread? Davis is a DH forced to play LF because the Brewers are in the NL. He was traded because we have Braun and Santana in the other corners and he was the odd man out. It sucks that Santana has been hurt, but that happens, and could not have been predicted prior to the season. The only one of those three that should even be in a CF discussion is Santana, as he was put there last year, but that was under Melvin who really didn't care about defense. One of the first things Stearns said when he took the job was that Santana would not be playing CF, tipping his hand that to Stearns defense is very important. With Santana and Braun the corners are covered, so back to CF. The real question is when our prospects will be ready, as Brinson is now the odds-on favorite to take over CF long term, and Phillips could cause a move to be made if he's looking like a good option in the future. Until then, we have playing time available to whoever grabs it. I'm hopeful more PAs will go to Broxton, as he could be a decent player, and could at least be a valuable 4th/5th OF for the foreseeable future. As others have suggested, I hope the only reason Kirk N. is seeing playing time at this point is in hopes of an August trade.

