monty57

True, but the "blockbuster" mentioned would include 1.5 years of Lucroy, 5.5 years of Guerra, and around 3 years of a reliever. None of the pieces are rentals, and any could be flipped for prospects at a later date if needed.

I understand the trepidation on trading for Gallo, but if he clicks he could sure fill an area of need and be a cornerstone for years. We could have a fun offense next year assuming Braun and Carter would still be around. Of course, you could say the same thing with Zimmer/Frazier in CF. I'm getting anxious for this trade to happen :-)

If the rumor that they have the other teams' offers and are just reviewing them was true, then it's crazy to start him. As I type this, Cervelli gets drilled and is being carried off the field. Catching is tough work.

I don't think their value diminishes too much in the offseason As long as reliever value remains at an all-time high and prospect value remains at an all-time low. Their value relative to other relievers won't change, but their value relative to prospects may. Probably best to strike when we know the market is in our favor.

Absolutely. If anything, it's drastically effected the trade deadline. More teams believe they have a shot and, as shown by the KC Royals two years ago, any team can get hot once they get in. With this market, we need to have everyone available and we need to listen intently. If Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea are going for Josh Naylor and Luis Castillo, I don't even wanna begin to think about what Jimmy Nelson would go for. The second WC is certainly a factor. I also think bubbles burst, and when they do, the "bubble commodity" falls far below its true value before coming back up (think housing after the 2007-08 crash). Markets just always work that way, and MLB trading is a market. For a while prospects were severely over-valued. Remember the "Mike Trout wouldn't bring back Profar" rhetoric a couple of years ago? The bubble burst, and many GMs are now under-valuing prospects. It will correct over time, and prospects will regain their luster, but the timing couldn't be better for the Brewers to be in rebuild mode.

Will there be any left by the time Stearns wants to pull the trigger? Yeah, it'd be nice if the Lucroy trade could get completed so Stearns can focus on trading his relievers before the teams willing to give up Top 100 guys for relievers dries up.

Relievers and utility players bringing back top 100 talent. I'd say it's a seller's market.

The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago. Pitching is in high demand. Not position players.. There is a limited market for catchers especially. Relief pitching is probably at an all-time high, but what appears to have lost it's luster over this season and last are prospects, which is happening right at the perfect time for the Brewers. Lucroy is worth more than a closer... any closer, even in this market. He has a .300/.361/.486/.848 stat line, which would play at any position, and he plays the most demanding position in baseball, and plays it very well. That doesn't mean he will match up with every team, but for the teams he matches up with, he will demand a king's ransom. A few years ago, trading a top 10 prospect was seemingly taboo, as they were the hottest commodity around. That's not the case today, and someone will part with a very good player. Maybe it won't be someone in the "top 10" lists, but I wouldn't absolutely discard anyone in today's market. I like prospects as much as anyone, and hope the Brewers can stockpile a lot of them, but someone in the majors who has always played at an All Star level and is currently playing near an MVP level, with one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball, who has shown willingness to sign an extension is worth more than someone who may someday be a good MLB player. If a "top 10" guy is in the mix, the Brewers will also receive another prospect or two. If a "top 10" guy is not in the mix, there will be 3-4 guys in the "top 100" range, with the best being in the top 50. Note that there is a difference between a normal "top 10 guy" and "the next Trout/Harper/Strasburg." Those guys are generational phenoms, and are not the normal case for "top 10" prospects. I don't think there are any generational phenoms in the minors right now. Maybe I'm wrong, and if I am, I hope the Brewers get him :-)

The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago.

I don't understand what this means? Are they saying that Lucroy is the "significant piece" and teams better pony up, or are they saying that another team has made them a "significant offer" and you better put your best offer on the table right now or else you'll get left out? I read this as Stearns saying that the headline name coming back needs to be a very good. It probably means that a team has offered a package containing a strong headline name, so this is the last call for other teams to step up and try to beat that offer. "Quantity over quality" deals need not apply. If MLB Radio has a solid source, then this probably means that we have seen the last of Lucroy playing for the Brewers. He will probably suit up today and step out to take a curtain call at some time before he leaves the dugout to give the fans a last chance to cheer what he has done for the Brewers.

I thought the same thing. Frazier is two years younger and probably the better player, so Zimmer becomes a very valuable trade chip at a "surplus" position. Meanwhile, he could step right in as the starting CF for Milwaukee, and could slide over to a corner position when Phillips is ready. I think the reason so many people are looking at Cleveland as the most likely landing spot is how well the needs fit. They desperately need a stud catcher, they have enough prospects that they could trade some and still have a strong farm, and their prospects fit into our areas of need.

There are lots of people on this board who are better at this then me, but I'll give it a shot. Cleveland has two stud OF prospects at AAA in 21-year old Clint Frazier and 23-year old Bradley Zimmer. Both have speed and power and can play CF. I would guess that Stearns is holding out for one of these guys to headline the deal. They have two young LHP in former #1 overall pick, 19-year old Brady Aiken (Rookie ball) and 20-year old Justus Sheffield (High A). Both are at the lower end of the top 100 but are obviously huge upside. I'd guess Stearns would want one of these guys (he'd want both, but not gonna happen). They have a 1B prospect with huge power in 20-year old Bobby Bradley (High A), and a catching prospect in 20-year old Francisco Mejia (High-A). One of these guys would make sense to fill out the trade. So: One of Frazier/Bradley, one of Aiken/Sheffield, and one of Bradley/Mejia. My guess is that Cleveland is trying to get a deal done with more players, but not the quality, and Stearns is holding out for something like this.

I don't know who will end up with Lucroy, but there will be a blue chip prospect plus a couple other good prospects in the deal, or no deal will be done. If Stearns was willing to settle for less than this, Lucroy would have been traded before the season started. I'd guess the deal will be for the "blue chipper" headlining the deal to be in AA/AAA, plus a 2-3 other top 100 guys from any level, and an 18-year old wildcard from Rookie ball. Add this to 2-3 more Top 100 guys coming back when we trade some relievers, and our farm will be in really good shape even after Arcia, Hader, and the "blue chipper" from the above trade are in the majors next year.

Why would they give up on a guy who was pretty awesome just a season ago? Makes no sense really. Yeah, most relievers are pretty up and down, and there is no better time than now to give him playing time. It's very likely that we trade some of Jefferss/Thornburg/Smith, so we can use the rest of this season to see what we have. Hopefully some guys like Blazek can step forward and take a setup role next year, increasing their value to the team.

BP had a study at GM trades a few years ago and there definitely appeared to be diminishing returns on trades for the most active GMs. Couldn't that be because when they are making a lot of trades, some of the players they're trading aren't all that good? Trading a so-so veteran who will be a FA is probably more about letting the player get a chance on a playoff team and saving a few bucks than it is on getting someone back who will ever make a MLB team.

I agree, but it probably has to do with getting as much info as possible. It would suck to give up your farm for a guy in early July, and then have some devastating injuries at the end of July giving yourself almost no chance at the playoffs. Or maybe another team decides to "sell" and a cheaper option comes on the market, etc. The extra couple of weeks makes sense, but it's often good to get as much information as possible before making a major decision. Sometimes time is what can give you that information.

It just depends on what you can get for Braun. I, too, would like to trade Braun for good prospects, but I don't want to trade him for junk just to save money. I really don't want to trade him for junk and then go out and spend more money on someone like Bruce. That to me would be counter-productive, so in that case, it's better just holding onto Braun. If Stearns is able to bring back a boatload of prospects for Lucroy, and a boatload of prospects for Braun, plus getting some top 100 guys for our relievers, then you set your sights a couple of years out and trade guys like Carter with two years of control. That would lead to a big down year the next year or two, followed by an extended period where we would continually have good pre-arby players coming from the farm to the MLB team. Once we get to this point, it would then make sense to sign some veteran FAs to fill in the holes where we don't have good pre-arby/arby guys. If we can't get a good deal for Braun, it may make sense to hold onto guys like Carter, and some of Smith/Thornburg/Jeffress for another year and see how things play out, as we can always trade these guys next season. So again, it all depends on what we could get for Braun. Someone posted a link the other day (maybe it was Splitter's "inside stuff"), which said other GMs know Braun is worth a lot, but they may not be willing to pay what he's worth. I think that "if" will be a big determinant as to how deep we cut. If we don't trade Braun, I think there's a greater likelihood that we hold onto Carter and one or two of our late inning relievers. While I have my preferences, reality doesn't always match up with my preferences, so I'm fine with either of these "rebuilds," as long as the end goal remains to build a sustainably good MLB team by keeping a lot of young talent at all levels of the organization and maintaining flexibility. There is not one cut-and-dried path to reach this goal, so we'll see what Stearns can pull out of his hat over the next week.

Also a good point, and probably worthy of it's own thread. I think the depth of the Brewer rebuild depends on what happens with Braun. If they are offered multiple top prospects for him (even if they eat a lot of salary to do so), then they will be bad next year but will have a ridiculous amount of talent (what they currently have plus what they get from Braun, Lucroy, and other trades) coming up through the minors. That would be more of a "tear down" approach, and would probably mean more guys traded this year, but the next wave could be really good. It would just be a few years out. If he is not traded, then I think we also hold onto Carter, only trading Lucroy and 1-2 of Smith/Thornburg/Jeffress. Hopefully from these trades, we can get another SP who could be in the rotation in the not-too-distant future, along with someone to fill one of our holes (CF). If so, then we could have a team missing Lucroy, but with Hader and the new pitcher helping out the rotation, Villar moving to 3B with Arcia at SS, and hopefully a healthy Santana. That team could be better than this year's team, while still allowing for us to play "youngsters" at many positions (i.e. rebuild). Either method is a viable approach, and I could get behind either one. My favorite scenario would have us getting a huge return for Braun. However, I do not want to trade Braun just to save salary, so if the offer isn't there, I'm fine with holding onto him and never being the worst team in the league, while still getting younger and maintaining flexibility.

Good point. Lucroy makes a lot of sense to trade because (A) He would bring back a huge return, (B) He is only under contract for one more year, and we will probably not be good next year, and © He approached the team for a contract extension, but the sides must not have been close on numbers, so it doesn't appear that he will be extended. The only pending FAs are replaceable guys like Boyer, who should be traded, but won't make much difference one way or the other. That leaves a lot of flexibility, and flexibility is a good thing. Right now, we have three good relievers with team control. Normally, we wouldn't think of trading them, but with the Royals' recent success, the market for relievers is higher than it probably has ever been. The thought that three good-but-not-great relief pitchers could potentially net us three top 100 prospects is mind-boggling, but it's a possibility. And if we can't get that, we can hold onto any or all of them. We also have Ryan Braun, one of the best hitters in the game. If we get an offer we can't refuse, then we trade him. That offer would include multiple top prospects, which would help our future a lot. But, if we don't get that offer, then we retain control of Braun and he continues on as our #3 hitters for years, or at least until someone is willing to pay up to get him. On a lesser note, there's Carter. Same situation. If we get a good offer, meaning prospect(s) who have a good chance of making a difference on the MLB level, then we trade him. Otherwise, we retain our cleanup hitter into next year. While I think that Lucroy and some of our relievers will be traded within the next week, there is no desperation, and as you said, that's a good thing.

I could now see a Top 100-type guy coming back for Jeffress/Smith/Thornburg. I was indifferent to trading these guys, but if we could land a potential impact player, then let the bidding begin. As to Torres, since we wouldn't get anything meaningful in return, I'd probably keep him and make him the next closer/set-up guy (depending on how many of Jeffress, Smith, Thornburg are traded). He may fall on his face, but if he can put up decent numbers in "high-leverage" situations, he could really raise his value. Boyer's a FA after the season, so get whatever you can for him.

But Chapman is now gone, and teams know that the Yankees want a Schwarber-type return for Miller. Any team looking for relief help but unwilling to ship out a young MLB All Star will have to talk to Stearns who can use Chapman's price tag as further leverage. In other words, even if 3.5 years of Jeffress is only worth 75% of 0.5 years of Chapman, that's still a lot. This makes if reasonable to think that we could get some Top 100 prospects back for our relievers, which is more than I would have expected a few months ago.

Santana (Before he got hurt) had a *not terrible* .737 OPS, and some of that was compiled while he was playing hurt. That's unfortunate, as just about everyone was looking forward to seeing what he could do with 500-600 PA's this year. The Brewers have had some luck with Villar, Carter, Guerra, etc., but they have not had any luck with the group of fringe OFs they threw together, which was compounded with the injuries to Santana (and Liriano). They hoped they could either find a youngster who could become part of the future, or at least get a journeyman vet that could be flipped at the deadline, but that hasn't worked out. It's a rebuild year, and overall I think Stearns did a pretty good job adding value from the "scrapheap" last offseason. Hopefully Santana will be healthy in the second half, which (barring a Braun trade) will leave us with only one gaping hole in the OF. We'll see what comes back in trade, and decide how best to fill that hole. We still have a lot of bodies that can fill CF. The question is whether any of them will step forward and claim the spot for next year or whether Stearns will have to work on that problem in the offseason.

Maybe theoretically, but not practically. There has to be a player equal to Braun in order for that to happen. If it were that easy, the Brewers have enough money that they should be able to sign four or five guys of Braun's caliber this offseason and be right back in the playoff race in 2017. This looks to be a pretty weak offseason for FA bats, so any notable players (Bautista and Bruce look to be about it) should get a lot of money. Anyone looking for OF help for a few seasons should look at the FA list, throw it in the trash and make a call to the Brewers. But, as I said earlier, if the Brewers are going to trade Braun, they will very likely eat a lot of salary in order to get some top prospects back, as it wouldn't make sense for them to trade him if they don't get a lot of prospect talent back. They can just front-load the money they're sending, as their payroll will be miniscule next year, freeing up cash in a couple years when they may want to start extending players and/or adding free agents.

I guess now is potentially the time to let guys like Wren and/or Reed get some regular time in Milwaukee. The options - Kirk N. and Flores - are uninspiring. If they fail, then so be it. At least you find out. I'd rather experiment now than in 2 or 3 years. That sums the current situation up nicely. It was fine trotting Kirk out daily when he was hitting okay in hopes that he could keep it up and make himself somewhat valuable in trade. Now that that ship has seemingly passed, they're shuffling the deck chairs until trade deadline, when they'll have some more answers as to the 40-man situation, and will be able to make better decisions as to what is best for the long-term good of the team. Kirk won't bring anything back in trade, but I'd guess that if the Brewers cut him some team looking for a defensive replacement 4/5 OF will pick him up. He just isn't the guy the Brewers should be giving time to when they have a bunch of younger players who could use the reps to see if they can stick.

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