monty57

I figured Carlos' problem could be that he's just swinging wildly at pitches off the plate, but that's not the case. He's actually swinging at less pitches out of the zone (36% this year vs 37.6% career) and more pitches in the zone (81.6% this year vs 73.8% career). He just isn't making contact (51% O-contact vs 60% career, 78.2% Z-contact vs 85.1% career), and his K% has jumped to 27.3% vs a career 22.6%. All numbers courtesy of Fangraphs. This is only a tiny sample of 20 games and 77 PA, but it's hard to hit well when you can't make contact. As to this being speed/injury related, Fangraphs still has him at 1.9 def WAR. Hard to believe that a CF could add that much defensive value if he had slowed to the point that it affects his offense. My uneducated guess would be that he's trying to hit the ball 500 ft with every swing.

Agree. He's not a free agent until 2019, and we don't have a focus on winning this year. There is no reason we should trade him for little return just to "get rid of the bum." If anyone can wait to see if he becomes "good Peralta," it's the Brewers, and if he does, he should be worth a lot in trade. Now, if another team wants to give the Brewers "good Peralta" value, then by all means trade him. That would be the value of a #2 starter in his prime with 2.5 years of control, which would be huge.

Hence the "+" If you want to argue semantics, then feel free to read the aforementioned post as "if the new regime decides to target a higher profile free agent, it would likely be a starting pitcher." I do not know how inflation will affect player salaries over a two year period. It is a very small time frame, but it seems that the recent surge (which seems to have had a much larger effect on front line guys than it has on mid-tier guys) have occurred largely due to a few big market teams getting huge TV deals. If there are more big market TV deals hitting in the next two years, then the trend could continue. If there are not more huge deals on the horizon, then I would expect the rate of inflation to flatten somewhat. Teams get more money, they use it to outbid the other guys for players. In an auction environment with a fixed number of teams and a fixed number of roster spots, naturally a huge one-time increase in expected revenue will result in a huge one-time increase in salary, but as the revenue stream flattens, so will salary (until the next bump up in revenue). This will continue as long as teams are able to negotiate their own TV deals, as long as the TV deals continue to increase substantially, and as long as the number of MLB players remains constant. As to the Brewers, in 2018 the only contract they are obligated to is Braun's $20M, $5M of which is deferred. Everyone else will either be arby or pre-arby. They could realistically have a payroll under $40M, and if they trade guys like Braun and Peralta, they could have a payroll under $30M! If we assume even a small inflation increase for the team, they should be able to handle a payroll in the $110-$120M range, so put whatever number you want on the price of a good free agent, they should be able to handle it. I fully expect that once the foundation is set, Attanasio will have no problem writing big checks to a couple of front-end guys, and as long as Stearns is allowed to continually add talent to the farm, we should have plenty of money to pay them.

We need to find/draft our Arrieta, Kershaw, or Bumgarner. I don't think Nelson is that guy. You don't necessarily need a Cy Young talent at the top of the rotation, but I get your point. I know prospects flame out, and pitching prospects probably even more than position prospects, but we do have a pretty good stable of pitchers in the minors, so hopefully we will have a good homegrown rotation in a few years. Additionally, as I mentioned earlier, I hope that the eventual Lucroy trade brings back a stud SP, and I wouldn't be surprised if, when we are on the other side of this rebuild, we make a big play for a top-of-the-rotation SP. We will have a lot of money, and if things pan out, we shouldn't need to spend a ton to upgrade the offense. Therefore, if the new regime decides to pick up a $20M+ player, it would likely be a starting pitcher. Nottingham has looked very good so far. Yeah, I'm very high on him, and I'm very hopeful that he will fill the catcher position for the Brewers for a long time. I just mentioned Phillips and Arcia because they are our current "can't miss" guys. The most positive thing I can think of about this team is that we have a number of guys (Nottingham included) who could step into that "can't miss" status soon. If a few of these guys take the next step, the future could look really good.

Other than Hill, who's hit in incredible bad luck and still gives them a professional AB consistently, Maldonado, who's playing time is sporadic, and whoever's been in CF, the rest of the everyday lineup has exceeded expectations. Fortunately, our two top prospects can fill those holes before too long. By next year, Phillips should man CF, and if Villar keeps playing well, he can move to 3B with Arcia taking over at SS. If that plays out, we have every defensive position other than catcher filled with someone who is under team control for years. Then we just need to get a stud pitching prospect in the Lucroy package to fit in with the rest of our young pitching, and we have a solid foundation with boatloads of cap room to add to payroll.

We don't know how the trade was put together, so we can't just assume that we could just take the Wagner/Anderson part out and still have a trade. Both sides were trying to maximize what they received, and what we got is what we got. Anderson is good controlled depth for the Brewers while our prospects make their way to the majors and guys like Peralta move on. Wagner could be better than Anderson, or he could be a reliever. Anderson is at least proven that he can start at the MLB level for a full season, and there's some security in that. Even in early stages of a rebuild, you need to have a starting pitcher on the mound every day. I'm happy for Segura that he's doing well, but it will have to continue for me to believe it's real. Regardless of what any of the other players involved in the trade do, what I'm really interested in is seeing how Diaz develops. If he continues to progress, he could be special.

Rogers was called up today.

Do you think the CFer's performance or the team's better than expected start played a role in this at all? Of course they do. If Broxton had gotten a few hits, he would be the Brewers' regular CF right now. His 0-for-16 start is the reason a move was made. Meanwhile, Kirk and Flores are cold, so they brought up another LH CF to see if any of them can play adequately. As to the "decent start," as much as I love this rebuild (I've been calling for a youth movement for years), they do still need to appease fans at the MLB level. When the team is in most of the games, and they keep trotting out a CF batting .000 a month into the season, the fans are going to wonder what they heck the team is thinking. They're smartly not going to start the clock on their better prospects, but they're going to do what they can to try to patch the biggest hole they have.

I agree with the overall premise, but there's not much of a logjam- not yet at least. As I type this, Coulter is hitting .184. He's not pressing for a promotion. And no OFs in Appleton are pressing for a promotion. Helena hasn't started the season yet, so Clark or anyone else won't be pushing anytime soon. So, if there's any logjam at all it's AA to AAA. Roache and Phillips are fine playing half a season in AA no matter how ell they hit. If one or both "need" a promotion then, well it's easy to find room for them in the Colorado OF. It's really the only reaon guys like Young are around, and they know it too. Just buying time until Phillips comes up. Yeah, the way I wrote it made it sound like I expect this immediately, but that's not what I meant. I don't expect any major prospects to move after a couple of weeks, but at some point something had to be done with Young and Presley. Unless something really bad happens, some of the guys in the AA OF will need those AAA OF spots, and Coulter (and probably others) will need to be in AA. Now that Presley is on the Brewers, the path is clear whenever they decide to make the moves. I'd guess that the Brewers hoped they could wait a while before "clearing the logjam," but the under-performance of the MLB CFs, mixed with the decent performance of the majority of the MLB club, caused them to act quickly to see if they can find some kind of a solution.

No, I don't think most would like to see Taylor up this year no matter what. If he does start hitting, he could be called up to AAA later this year. No reason whatsoever to promote him to MLB from AA if he has a couple hot months hitting the baseball. It just doesn't make any sense for the Brewers or Tyrone Taylor. In fact, I think we'll see Roache in AAA before Taylor. I was thinking more of a September call up if he was mashing in AA. I don't think that is too far out there thinking. We have five OF on the MLB roster now, with set-in-stone starters Braun and Santana, veteran stopgaps Presley and Kirk N, and prospect Flores (no options). Liriano (also no options) will likely be back by then, and in the minors we have Broxton, Reed, Roache, Phillips and Wren who are likely higher on the depth chart then Taylor. There's also Young, who isn't a prospect, but who would be called up ahead of Taylor, and there are so many names I'm probably forgetting someone. Taylor has a lot of potential, so let's just let him get his PAs in at AA, where he will hopefully take a step forward. He needs the work there, and we have plenty of OF depth, so there is no need to rush Taylor in any way. I just hope that with all of the OF talent they have accumulated, they are able to get him enough PAs in AA.

I would have brought up Reed as the RH bat already on the 40-man, but Presley and Kirk N. were brought in as guys who might bring something, but could be cut without remorse if they fail, so I'm not upset with this move. Give him some time to see what he can do, and let him go if he doesn't perform (same as Kirk). This frees up the minor league OF logjam, and I'd rather see the real prospects getting everyday play in the minors than veteran "insurance" like Young and Presley. I'd love for Flores to heat up, as he's the only prospect of the three guys now on the MLB roster, but I really just hope someone plays well enough to "keep the spot warm" for the year until Phillips takes over next season. With Presley out of the way, Phillips or Roache should be able to move up to AAA and get everyday PT there, and Coulter can make the move to AA.

Wasn't Heyward only out a month or so when he got hit in the face? Marlon Byrd I thought wasn't out very long either. Every case is going to be different. Liriano had fractures, so I can't imagine they would allow him to face live pitching until those have completely healed. I have not been impressed at all with Broxton/Flores/Nieuwenhius and I am wondering what other options we have in CF. My guess is Reed will be called up to be the RH side of a platoon, with Nieuwenhius/Flores sharing the LH duty. I also look forward to seeing what Liriano can do, but he'll have to get healthy, and then probably spend a few weeks on a minor league rehab assignment before he'll be back on the MLB roster.

Peralta 2 runs in 5 IP, in line for the win if the Brewers hold on. Still had a lot of runners on, but I'll take the "baby steps" in the right direction. Him turning things around would be a huge positive for the Brewers.

Not to drive this off topic, but the one game I was at, he was warming up playing catch before the game. He saw a couple of young kids about halfway up in the stands and waved them to come down. He grabbed a couple of baseballs, ran to the fence and spent some time talking to the kids and giving them the baseballs, and waited around while their dad grabbed his phone to take some pictures, talking/jokinng with the kids while he waited. When a couple of other kids came down, he ran back to the field to grab some more balls to give to them. He went out of his way to give these kids a moment they'll probably remember the rest of their lives. I grew up in Beloit, so I've seen a lot of minor league games, and that was the most genuine, fan-friendly thing I've ever seen a player do. I know in today's world of baseball, it's probably better to not grow too attached to players, but at the same time I think it's good to acknowledge that there are good people in the game. We sure get enough news when someone does something bad. He also looked good against Brewer pitching that day, so while he can probably benefit from more minor league "seasoning," I don't think he'd be lost at the plate if they called him up today. For financial reasons it won't happen, so until it does we'll just have to argue whether the fringe prospect we sent to Pittsburgh is better than the fringe prospects we got back, or any of the other fringe prospects/non-prospects we had trying out for CF this spring. I hope Broxton and Reed both do well, but they're playing to see if they will be a future Brewer backup, or to drive up their trade value. Right now, they're kind of interchangeable, and I just hope at least one of them does well enough that we don't have to add Young or Presley to the 40-man, which will likely be the next move if Reed doesn't perform at the MLB level.

With that said, if they want to bring up Reed to see if he can play CF, I'm fine with that. Sure, starting his clock maybe a year early, but he's a guy who wouldn't cost very much as a 4th OF down the road in his arby years and beyond. Reed looks like the obvious choice. He's on the 40-man and bats RH. Swap him and Broxton to see if he can do something in the majors, and if Broxton can "find it" with every day playing time in AAA. Both of them are playing to see if they'll make quality 4th/5th OFs in the future, so let's see who outplays the other. Young and Presley appear to have been kept in order to give the team a reason to keep some other guys (i.e. Phillips) in AA to justify keeping him in the minors for a few months next year to gain a year's service time. Hopefully it is not necessary to add either of those guys to the 40-man, and hopefully the Brewers will do something to clear the AAA outfield later in the season so some of the guys at the lower levels get promoted. Right now, Phillips, Wren, Taylor and Roache are all in AA, and all of them should be playing every day. Meanwhile, Coulter is stuck in High-A.

They've had Reed playing a bit of CF in AAA lately, he hits right-handed, and he's on the 40-man, so he looks to be the obvious choice for a call-up. This doesn't mean that Broxton is a failure, just that he needs everyday playing time at AAA as the Brewers continue to use this season to see which of our borderline OFs have a future for the team. Our #1 option right now for CF is Phillips. I love him as a player, and after seeing him interact with the fans in Biloxi, he jumped even higher on my list of guys I want to see do really well. I think that he'd outperform all the other options immediately. However, given the team's situation and the MLB CBA, Phillips will probably end up staying in the minors until a few months into next year, so the revolving door of CF until that point is just seeing what some of these other guys can do. Hopefully one or two of them shine, giving us some options down the road.

We've played a very tough schedule and are 4-5. The schedule is pretty brutal to start this season, and we're holding our own.

broxton's oh-fer performance to start the season reminded me of another player who was once a promising prospect: brad nelson. One of Nelson's final AB's was caught at the wall, and I wondered if that ball had gone another 2-3 feet and been a homer if he would have been cut, or if that would have been enough to give him more "leash." Then, a little hot streak could have had him in a Brewer uniform for a while. Baseball's funny. If you start out 20-for-20, you could then go 0-for-40, and still be a .333 hitter. If you started 0-for-40, you'd probably never get another shot. Same goes with a team's record. Start off bad, and you will probably be trading away players at the deadline. If the same roster started out hot, they would probably add players at the deadline. This has pretty much been the Brewers' m.o. the past few years, which is why I'm glad we finally bought into Stearns and his philosophy, which hopefully won't be as dependent on (for lack of a better word) "luck" in the small sample of the first couple of months of a season. As to Broxton, I like how Counsell is handling things. He's doing a good job of giving everyone some time, and hasn't veered from his strategy based on a small number of PAs. Broxton and Flores are both playing this year to see if what role they'll play in the future once Phillips is up, so we might as well keep trotting them out there to see what they can do.

The guy should walk away from the game, get a personal trainer and chef, and get into playing shape. Perhaps by the end of the season he could come back and be an asset. But again, let's face the facts. The guy had the chance to do that in the off season and didn't do it. He seems to be in denial that he has a problem. Well, he's getting paid millions even if he needs the batboy to push him in a wheelchair from the locker room to the bench so he can watch the game, so if he has no issue with being overweight, then he doesn't really have a problem. It's the Red Sox who have the problem in that they have to pay him, and potentially waste a 25 & 40-man roster spot on a non-productive player. San Fran got on Sandoval about his weight every year he was with them, so it's not like he suddenly gained weight once he signed his contract. As long as teams are willing to offer monster contracts to players with question marks, then I don't have much compassion for them when the contract bombs on them. I'm just glad to see that the Brewers are moving away from signing questionable players to multi-year deals. Let's give other teams' fans reason to complain.

My guess from the rumblings at places like MLBtraderumors is that there were "good" offers out there, but Stearns is holding out for "very good," or even "great." I think that if Lucroy continues to play well and stay healthy, Stearns will have played his hand well, and some team will raise their offer to what Stearns is asking. The risk is that Lucroy gets hurt. Even a non-career-threatening injury could take him off the trade market if he's hurt at the deadline, but another serious concussion could end his career, obviously meaning we'd get nothing when we could have had a "good" return. Or, he could hurt something that puts him out of commission until mid-season next year, meaning that our best-case option would be that we could offer a QO if he's healthy when he comes back. It doesn't seem to be too far-fetched to believe that Stearns is taking something of a gamble, I just hope it pays off. My hope is that he can get another guy that can form a core along with Arcia & Phillips (and probably others like Hader, etc) for the better part of the next decade, plus a couple high-upside youngsters. I don't know whether that would be the "good" offer, or the "great" offer. I personally think Stearns is holding out for more than that.

Im not disagreeing, only that a starting catcher being moved midseason is pretty rare. I went through some random recent catchers' stats to see if they changed teams mid-season. Note: some of these may have been getting cut by one team and picked up by the other, but most were probably trades: Jason Kendall 2007 A's to CHC Kurt Suzuki: 2012 As to WSH 2013 WSH to A's AJ Pierzynski: 2014 StL to Boston Geovany Soto: 2012 CHC to Tex, 2014 Tex to Oakland Benji Molina: 2010 SF to Tex Wellington Castillo: 2015 CHC - SEA - ARI Nick Hundley: 2014 SD to Baltimore Wilson Ramos: 2010 (as rookie) Min to WSH Saltalamacchia: 2007 Atl to Tex, 2010 Tex to Boston I didn't look at that many catchers. This is not very scientific, but a many/most of the catchers I looked at have moved mid-season at some point in their career.

Has there ever been a player of substantial value traded this early in the season? It's possible that Lucroy gets traded soon, giving the receiving team almost two full seasons of him, but I think that's pretty unlikely. I just hope he stays healthy and plays well so Stearns can get a good return in July.

It's great to see that Thornburg has his velocity back, but he turns 28 this season, and hits arby next year. If the Brewers plan on putting him in the rotation (which I don't think they are), then they are running out of time to do it. I think his path is leading to set-up guy/closer more than to the rotation, and that's fine. As to Peralta, I think he'll have a very long "leash" as a starter this year. He's already in his first arby year, so he's likely to be a trade candidate this year or next off-season as the young guys continue to advance. If he can show himself to be even a middle-of-the-rotation starter, he has a decent amount of value, but a non-closing reliever who's going to get a raise from his $2.8M going into his second year of arby is pretty much worthless on the trade market. He's had a bad first two games, but there's plenty of reason to believe that he'll settle down and prove himself to be a capable MLB starter, and that's the best case for the Brewers' future.

This team is fun to watch. I know leadership gets the short end of the stick in statistical analysis, but something has caused a big change in this team's approach. Counsell was a very patient hitter, so he could be a positive influence on this, and not having a team leader like Gomez swinging out of his shoes with two strikes and a runner in scoring position probably helps as well. They have faced some good pitching to start this season, and have held their own, largely because they're laying off of pitches out of the zone, allowing them to get better pitches to hit, while running up pitch counts. Hopefully this will be the standard throughout the system. Whatever the cause, it's nice to see a disciplined team on the field. That certainly hasn't been the case in Milwaukee for years.

Did Jason Lane get a pinch hit home run as a coach? Yes, that was awesome! Braun, Santana, Phillips and Nottingham also hit home runs.