brewerfan82

Not in his professional career: Mench's profile from thebaseballcube.com

Very nice article. It really bodes well for the Suppan signing as well. Using his same technique with the current Brewers three-year averages, you get the following: Current Brewer Three-Year Averages Ben Sheets: 3.13 ERA (24 starts) Jeff Suppan: 3.95 ERA (32 starts) Chris Capuano: 4.17 ERA (29 starts) Dave Bush: 4.28 ERA (24 starts) Claudio Vargas: 5.08 ERA (22 starts) Carlos Villanueva: 3.69 ERA (24 starts)* Zach Jackson: 5.40 ERA (25 starts)* Ben Hendrickson: 7.41 ERA (28 starts)* * used Major League ERA from 2004-06, but average starts from all professional levels NL Averages (from article) Starter GS ERA #1 Total 32 3.51 #2 Total 32 4.04 #3 Total 32 4.57 #4 Total 32 5.11 #5 Total 32 6.26 Brewers with Suppan Starter GS ERA Sheets 24 3.13 Villanueva 8 3.69 #1 Total 32 3.27 Villanueva 16 3.69 Suppan 16 3.95 #2 Total 32 3.82 Suppan 16 3.95 Capuano 16 4.17 #3 Total 32 4.06 Capuano 13 4.17 Bush 19 4.28 #4 Total 32 4.24 Bush 5 4.28 Vargas 22 5.08 Zach Jackson 5 5.40 #5 Total 32 5.00 Brewers without Suppan Starter GS ERA Sheets 24 3.13 Villanueva 8 3.69 #1 Total 32 3.27 Villanueva 16 3.69 Capuano 16 4.17 #2 Total 32 3.93 Capuano 13 4.17 Bush 19 4.28 #3 Total 32 4.24 Bush 5 4.28 Vargas 22 5.08 Jackson 5 5.40 #4 Total 32 5.00 Jackson 20 5.40 Hendrickson 12 7.41 #5 Total 32 6.15 Of course there are a number of problems with the above analysis (Gallardo will probably be there instead of Hendrickson, the number of starts for the replacement players will be different, there will be more than two or three replacement players needed, park effects, etc.), but it does give you a rough idea of how good our rotation's outlook is and how much value the Suppan acquisition adds to it.

lol, nice josh and thanks for the heads up!

I think you could easily argue that acquisitions weren't needed for this team to improve. While you can't count on health, you never expect it to be as bad off as losing two starting pitchers, a starting third baseman, a starting shortstop, and a starting second baseman for as much time as we did last year. Add to that a full year of Coco Cordero, a rebound by Jenkins, and continued improvement from Hardy, Weeks, Fielder and Hart, and this team should be improved. Adding Estrada (and even Counsell in my opinion) only add to that fact.

I think Huff would be a great addition to our lineup IF we trade both Jenkins and Mench. He's a solid left handed hitter that doesn't fall on his face against lefties: Aubrey Huff - 30 yrs old in 2007 (3 Year Averages) AB R H HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS vs. R 373 55 104 18 59 40 51 4 2 .279 .350 .482 .832 vs. L 170 18 46 6 28 12 24 0 0 .268 .322 .423 .745 Total 543 73 150 24 87 52 75 4 3 .276 .342 .463 .805 I think he'd fit nicely in the three spot of the lineup: 2B Rickie Weeks ® C Johnny Estrada (S) RF Aubrey Huff (L) CF Bill Hall ® 1B Prince Fielder (L) LF Corey Hart ® 3B Corey Koskie (L) SS JJ Hardy ® C Damian Miller ® IF Tony Graffanino ® IF Craig Counsell (L) OF Gabe Gross (L) OF Brady Clark ®

Looks like the Rockies are considering using Barmes in center. Maybe the Brewers want to complete their all-infield outfield?

ERA+ (park adjusted) numbers over the past 3 seasons (04-06), courtesy of baseball-reference.com: Lieber: 104, 108, 94 Garcia: 121, 115, 103 Vazquez: 92, 91, 96 Garcia still gets the nod and I still have a man-crush on Vazquez from his Montreal days... So you probably have a case for Lieber over Vazquez, but he's still young enough to turn it around. Still, since it's not my money, I'll take one of the younger guys http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Jon Lieber (37 years old; 2007: $7.5m) ERA WHIP W L GS IP HR BB SO AVG 3-Yr Avg 4.46 1.28 13.3 10.7 29.7 187.7 26.7 27.7 117 .283 Freddy Garcia (32 years old; 2007: $10m) ERA WHIP W L GS IP HR BB SO AVG 3-Yr Avg 4.07 1.25 14.7 9.3 32.3 218.1 26.7 57.3 155 .256 Javier Vazquez (30 years old; 2007: $12.5m w/ ARI paying $2.5m) ERA WHIP W L GS IP HR BB SO AVG 3-Yr Avg 4.72 1.28 12.0 12.3 32.3 205.4 30.3 54.0 175 .260 I'd go Garcia, Vazquez, Lieber in order of preference (with Garcia most preferable). Edit: updated to reflect players' ages for 2007 according to baseball-reference.

I agree. If we can swing a deal for one of the White Sox pitchers, I'd be much happier than getting Lieber.

That's not what I got from the mlbtraderumors.com posting: Sounds like: White Sox get Rowand Phillies get Mench and Vazquez/Garcia Brewers get Lieber

Exactly. That's why it creeped me out to see him listed as the most similar player to Penny... Acquiring Penny would be a great move, but I really don't want to look back on him as Ben McDonald Part II. Bad mojo.

Take this with a grain of salt, but baseball-reference's most similar player to Brad Penny through age 28 is.... Ben McDonald http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eek.gif I still want him though... Sheets, Penny, Capuano, Bush, Anyone makes me drool

No, I think Penny is by far the best pitcher that we have any remote chance of acquiring this offseason.

Ha ha. I don't get worked up about people placing things in the wrong forum usually and this is somewhere in between the two... so I'm just worried about confusion as to where to post new information. Maybe this thread should be renamed "Reports from the 2006 Winter Meetings" or something... just to indicate it's more than fan speculation. Edit: or 2006 Meetings... whichever year it is

More info on a possible Lieber/Mench-Turnbow swap from Randy Miller at pjillyBlurbs.com: ...by the way, shouldn't this whole topic be in the trade rumor section?

I'm not completely sold on Crisp either and now with this Baldelli talk, I'm getting greedy http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smokin.gif

I may have taken your post more seriously than you intended... it just sounded like you were upset/disturbed that Gord Ash would have an answer to who the current starters in the outfield are.

Since that blurb indicates Mench is a starter "as of now", I take that to mean if we don't make any other acquisitions. That does not indicate in any way that we aren't targeting an outfielder that's outside the organization to take that spot from him. The surprising thing about that is that they feel Mench is the starter, "as of now", over Jenkins. Either they're so close to trading Jenkins that they don't even consider him an option or they actually think (or want other teams to think...?) Mench will out-produce Jenkins this upcoming year. At this point, I don't think either player will be with the team come April, so maybe this is just posturing to up Mench's value since it appears that Jenkins' has been drawing more interest thus far and they had to throw someone's name in there as a starter.

You don't think it's possible all three have discussed this and this is possibly a consensus they came too? Or at least what they've decided to state publicly? Seems like a bit of a stretch to make the assumption from that quote that Gord's calling the shots by himself and to respond that passionately...

This would be a GREAT acquisition. He has a very nice contract. Courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts: 2007: $750k2008: $2.25m2009: $6m club option ($4m buyout)2010: $8m club option2011: $9m club option ($2m buyout; 2010 and 2011 options must be exercised together) Additionally he is only heading into his age 25 season. For comparison/fun sake, here are baseball-reference's similar batters through age 24: Gary Matthews (969)Ellis Burks (968)Carlos Beltran (965)Garry Maddox (962)Vernon Wells (954)Augie Galan (953)Bruce Campbell (953) Groovy!Juan Encarnacion (950)Vic Wertz (949)Steve Kemp (948)

I agree that he's not your typical leadoff man in stature, but to strawboss' credit, this is a guy that's batted .297 with a .363 OBP and 59 SBs to only 16 CS in AAA the past three seasons. He definately has the potential to fit the bill statistics-wise. However, Hart also slugged .516 with 36 HRs in that time as well (969 at-bats, so roughly 1.5-2 seasons worth). A guy that might be able to bat .280/.350/.480/.830 with 20 HRs and 25 SBs if given a full season at the major league level may be better suited for a lower spot in the order...although that would make for one great leadoff hitter!

It scares me that someone knows who I am... I may no longer be able to hide beneath my vague screen name as a security blanket. Good thing I have incriminating knowledge of your ability to recognize certain body parts, Josh. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif To everyone else-- Don't ask.

I'd love to get McGowan included in any Vernon Wells deal. That at least ensures we get something valuable past this year. However, as Pogo points out, I wouldn't do it at the cost of Hall. Obviously, TOR desperately needs a shortstop since they signed Clayton to be their starter...barf! I think Hardy's got more value than most of us think, so I'd start off a deal like this: To Milwaukee: OF Vernon WellsSP Dustin McGowan To Toronto: SS JJ HardyOF Kevin Mench/Brady Clark/Geoff Jenkins (their choice)RP Derrick Turnbow/Matt Wise (their choice)OF Tony Gwynn Jr./Laynce Nix (their choice)And maybe throw in Hendrickson if they want him It might not take that much, but that's about as much as I'd be willing to sacrifice. In that scenario, we'd still be left with a couple chips to upgrade our bullpen further.

The more I think about it, the more I think Hardy could be packaged for an impact player in the next couple weeks. Here's how I think it's playing out: Secret Meeting at Team Canada's BatcaveDeep within the recesses of Saskatchewan, Fall of 2006 Doug: You know, eh, that there Billy Hall is pretty good, and that. Gord: Darn tootin' Doog. Doug: I betsa if he played dat der shortstop fulls time, and that, we'd have one of them elites players of baseball! Gord: Sure thang. But what about that Hardy fella? Doug: Oh lordy... I forgots all about him! Looks like we've got a bargaining chip to steal us another bopper, and that! Gord: Yeppers. But we better not decrease his trade value by naming Hall the everyday shortstop, ya know? Doug: Oh geez, good point! Well we can say we're moving him to the outfield so he can play everyday, and that. Then people will assume we still like Hardy enough to start him over Hall, and that. Gord: Sounds terrific Doog. But obviously Billy would be most valuable as a centerfielder if he was in the outfield... aren't you trying to sign a new centerfielder for the cloob? Doug: Good point, Gordy. In order to continue attracting possible centerfielders, how's aboot we say Billy's most suitable for leftfield, and that? Gord: Ha. Good one Doog. But will people actually believe we'd do that? Doug: I don't know, and that, but I do what I want. Ha ha ha! Gord: One other thing Doog. If we trade Hardy, who backs up shortstop? I don't know that signing Graffy fits the bill if we need him dair. Ned: Howdy boys! I know just what this ballclub needs! The grittiest, battler the West ever did know! My boy, Craig Counsell! Yee haw!! Doug: Jiminy Crickets!! How did you get here Nedly?!? You know you're not supposed to be involved in these grownup meetings, and that! Ned: Ah gosh... I'm sorry fellas. It's just that you kept adding these 'good' players to my roster and I didn't know what to do... so I followed you on your donkeys to the batcave... Doug: It's okay Nedly. If we sign Counsell, and that, do you promise to go away and not start him for Canada's sake? Ned: I promise on my 2006 Nascar Racing Guide! Thanks a bunch boys! I'll see you in the Spring! Gord: Good day, eh. Doug: Anyway... back to this Billy business, and that... ------ Anyway, just throwing more wood on the fire http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I'd do a Rivera and Santana deal for Hall (Especially if we're taking him out of the infield anyway). I don't have much desire for Figgins though.