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brewerfan82

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Everything posted by brewerfan82

  1. brewerfan82
    2026 Catchers w/ at least 150 PAs: 2026 Catchers w/ at least 30 PAs in the last 30 days: 🤷‍♂️ lol
  2. brewerfan82
    Here's the issue with adding someone specifically to take you from a playoff team to a World Series champion, it means that player needs to carry your team specifically through the playoffs and the postseason is such a small sample, any good player could be bad and any bad player could be good for that stretch. Clearly the odds are better of a good player having a hot stretch, but it is far from guaranteed, which makes mortgaging your future a huge gamble when betting on a guy to be hot for a 2-3 week stretch. For a recent example, since July 1st (in about as many at bats as you may see in a postseason run), Joey Ortiz, our number 9 hitter and worst offensive starter over the past two seasons, has been one of our best hitters (along with a defensive first rookie in Pratt): Meanwhile Jake Bauers who carried this team offensively during the first half of the year has an 89 wRC+, Vaughn who many continue to complain about not getting enough playing time has a 76 wRC+, and arguably our two best offensive players, Chourio and Contreras, have 67 and 31 wRC+ respectively: So while it'd be great to add a known bat or two (and/or pitcher or two), you're probably almost as likely to get Chourio and Contreras' recent production as you are to get Mitchell and Turang's recent production over that small amount of time.
  3. brewerfan82
    Brewers 2026 P rankings in MLB: 3.56 xFIP (2nd in MLB, better than LAD's 3.85) .218 AVG (2nd, LAD: .214) 1.17 WHIP (T-2nd, LAD: 1.13) Brewers past 30 days P rankings in MLB: 3.64 xFIP (3rd in MLB, better than LAD's 4.03) .214 AVG (4th, LAD: .225) 1/11 WHIP (T-3rd, LAD: 1.24) Brewers 2026 P vs. above .500 teams rankings in MLB: 3.72 xFIP (1st in MLB, better than LAD's 3.92) .197 AVG (1st, LAD: .222) 1.10 WHIP (1st, LAD: 1.15) I'm not too worried about how yesterday's game went in the grand scheme of things. I also don't think they're "unlikely to make a trade". I think they may be "unlikely to make a blockbuster trade despite looking into them", but they always make some sort of bolstering moves. The biggest key to the offseason is getting everyone there healthy and with as much stamina left as possible. If they do that, they can play with anyone in a short series (and unfortunately vice versa, but that's how the postseason goes).
  4. brewerfan82
    If the last year and a half are down/awful years/the floor for Henderson (25 years old, FA in 2029) and Holliday (22 years old, FA in 2031 or 32?), then sign me up. 2025-26: I think it'd probably cost more than it's worth for us considering all the infield talent we already have, but I would be pretty confident in them providing a boost the rest of the season and beyond if they were acquired. And at only 25 years old, I suspect Gunnar has a good chance of finding his 2023-24 success again:
  5. brewerfan82
    For anyone curious what BTV thinks may be a fair trade, I found this just now. Not saying it's a good deal, a bad deal, or an accurate portrayal of values, just throwing it out there to add to the discussion ;)
  6. brewerfan82
    I guess the question now is how much cash are people hoping comes back our way to make this deal make sense. If the Astros are eating half of that ~$6.7M, I'll feel a lot better about the deal.
  7. brewerfan82
    It's kind of a head scratcher at this point. He's been injured or very bad for 4 years and is owed $6.672M. Feels like there's gotta be something more to it, like we're getting someone else as well but had to take on McCullers to get the deal done. Otherwise it'd be weird for us to 1.) take on the money for someone that's been so bad recently, or 2.) for the Astros to pick up a bunch of the money and still not get much for him since he's been so bad.
  8. brewerfan82
    The closest I can find on FanGraphs is team batting stats with runners in scoring position and less than two outs: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=54,55,59&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2026-03-01&endDate=2026-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&position=B&sort=15,1 They're 7th in the MLB in wRC+ in that situation, 8th in AVG, 3rd in OBP, 13th in SLG, 9th in OPS Over the last month stats: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=54,55,59&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2026-05-07&endDate=2026-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&position=B&sort=9,1 Over the last month they're 7th in the MLB in wRC+ in that situation, 7th in AVG, 4th in OBP, 15th in SLG, 9th in OPS
  9. brewerfan82
    That's pretty amazing considering they started out 184 games below .500 from 1998-2006.
  10. brewerfan82
    Not good enough.
  11. brewerfan82
    It's really amazing how this team can just keep trading away their stars and keep chugging along. Here's how the outgoing pitchers (Peralta, Myers, Quintana) have faired vs. the incoming pitchers (Harrison, Drohan, Sproat) this year: And the comparison is even more favorable since May 1st:
  12. brewerfan82
    It might help if people stop using "MA" when both Mark Attanasio and Matt Arnold are being discussed... 😉
  13. brewerfan82
    I'm guessing the same thing may very well be said with a post-30 year old Contreras as well. It sucks because we grew up with players sticking with teams for their whole career and we still like the idea of that, but with the finances of the game, it's just better to have players on pre-FA contracts and team friendly extensions up until their age 30 season while they're still in their prime and then let someone else overpay for them as the decline in their post-30 years.
  14. brewerfan82
    That's an interesting take and makes sense to me! For me, Christmas is about traditions. Whether or not the film was intended to be, or is or isn't semantically, a "Christmas movie" is irrelevant to me. If you personally (or along with your friends and/or family) have adopted it as a tradition to watch Die Hard during the Christmas season, then for you it is a Christmas movie. No need to decide as a whole if it is or isn't. Of course, I also understand that takes all the fun out of the discussion 😉
  15. brewerfan82
    This is pretty much how I remember this going, lol
  16. brewerfan82
    Pretty sure it's that they haven't had the same lineup construction in any game yet. It sounds crazy, but apparently once you factor in injuries, lefty/righty matchups, rotating guys into the DH spot, moving guys around due to being hot or cold, and resting/giving guys playing time in general, the average team goes through like 120 different lineup combos in a season.
  17. brewerfan82
    It's been bad today, but coming into the game they were tied for the fewest grounded into double plays in baseball:
  18. brewerfan82
    I love Turang, but I think this is the main issue. By the time Turang is a free agent, he'll be going into his age 30 season and getting very expensive. We'd be paying more for his (theoretically) post-peak years. At the same time Made and Pena will be going into their age 23 seasons, along with Pratt and Jett going into their age 25 and 26 seasons. Hopefully by then some combo of those players will be proven enough to cover the middle infield for a lot less money and the money that could be spent on a Turang extension can be used more productively elsewhere, whether that's to fill holes on the roster or extending younger guys to Chourio/Peralta-type contracts. For a team like the Brewers, I think any extension is better spent on younger players to hold onto them through their age 27-29 years, not to pay for their 30+ years.
  19. brewerfan82
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mitchga01.shtml#all_batting_st
  20. brewerfan82
    Here are the most recent BTV values I could find for the players mentioned: Your Luke Adams+ evaluation is much closer, at least according to BTV:
  21. brewerfan82
    With the discussion about grading the offseason, I was thinking how this whole offseason may have been different if Woodruff hadn't accepted the QO. It could have been something like this: Hold onto Peralta to lead the staff and plan on getting compensation from him next year Without getting Jett Williams in the Peralta deal, does that keep our infield depth shallow enough where a Durbin trade doesn't happen? With $14M saved keeping Peralta at $8M instead of Woodruff at $22M, are we bigger players in free agency? Is there another trade we might have been in on that would have taken on money? All that adds up to something like this difference between what happened and what may have happened: Woodruff -> Peralta Williams -> Durbin Sproat -> Woodruff compensatory pick Harrison -> Peralta compensatory pick Drohan -> Myers Hamilton -> Monasterio Rengifo, Sanchez -> Whatever we do with the extra ~$19M ($14M saved with Peralta over Woodruff + $3.5M from Rengifo + $1.75M from Sanchez) If Woodruff not accepting the QO was their plan A, I think they did a good job pivoting this offseason. How do you think the offseason would have played out differently? Do you think we "accidentally" ended up in a better position with Woodruff accepting the QO? Of course they may have still traded Peralta and also not spent any of that "extra" money too! Who knows! Just thought it was interesting to think about!
  22. brewerfan82
    So 2/3 of the players were older than him too... Wilken's ranked the 9th best 3B prospect in baseball on MLB.com (https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/3b/). I don't think people are arguing that he's the next coming of Mike Schmidt, just that he's a good prospect that doesn't "suck" (not your words, just where this convo started to ramp up) and if healthy has a good chance of making it to the big leagues sometime this year.
  23. brewerfan82
    2025 MIL production from 3B: Rengifo/Hamilton should outproduce the Dunn/Capra 3B combo from earlier in the season and the Seigler/Mona utility combo later in the season. Rengifo: Hamilton: And hopefully one of the prospects is able to force their way onto the ML roster at some point and replace Durbin's production. Williams: Wilken: Throw in adding a couple of nice LHP arms to the system in Harrison and Drohan and I think this makes the Durbin trade look like a pretty solid move.
  24. brewerfan82
    Thanks! The exchange about 3rd base was: Tom Verducci: "Well give me an idea of what you're looking at at third base for instance." Pat Murphy: "I don't think I could tell you the full picture right now because I don't think it's over..."
  25. brewerfan82
    Fyi, not sure if/when there might be a video available online, but I just saw Murph interviewed on MLB Network and when asked about the third base situation he started off with something along the lines of "I'm not sure I can answer that yet because I don't think it's done yet but..." 🤔 He went on to praise the current players and the young guys on the way, and that intro could have totally just been about the prospects still on their way, but I thought it was interesting and if someone can find a clip to post, it was an interesting interview and relevant to this discussion. Edit: It's also possible he said that because he doesn't know if the Durbin trade is officially done yet too? But regardless it'd be fun to hear others' interpretations if we can find that video :)
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