Yeah, this is spot on imho. The only absolute locks, by my eyes, are RHP Logan Henderson and RHP Shane Smith. Too much high end stuff in both these young men's toolkits to leave exposed - no brainers. I love me some RHP Chad Patrick - he's just a guy who knows how to pitch and really has a nice legit mix of pitches. Will the Brewers protect him? Maybe. Maybe. He's leading the International League in several important categories and even when he's not on top of his game (like his recent start @ Durham), he still finds ways to settle down and give his squad 5 IP or more. That's valuable. I'm very curious to see how the Brewers handle his status after the season is over. He isn't dominant by any stretch but he absolutely can be and has shown he may be just scratching the surface. I like the movement on his pitches - deceptively active.
Yeager was Rule 5 eligible last season and went unprotected. He was also injured the majority of the season, obviously. Even tho he's demonstrated really good form - for the most part; he struggled quite a bit in May and June but has been fantastic for well over a month now - and even tho he plays the part of an 8th and 9th inning guy for Biloxi I don't think he's shown anything he didn't show in his 2023 limited action that would scream they'll protect him. Remember, one of my favorite late season risers in RHP Tobias Myers also went entirely unprotected in 2023.
Smith is in the best shape of his young career. His change-up continues to be his best pitch. His slider has improved since first entering the system and can certainly be a strikeout pitch when he's ahead in the count. The heater still sits 92-93 mph. He's been much improved, really, since late last summer. Will the Brewers protect him? Probably not.
Obviously, I love me some Isaac Collins - having driven that hype train since late last spring. He's also getting more looks at different positions in 2024. We're seeing him at 3B and CF on the regular of late so obviously they are trying to expand his utility relevance. He's fast. He's got a very good bat and a good eye for the ball. Will they protect him? Probably not.
If anything comes back as a reminder every year for me, it's that I tend to overvalue these players quite a bit more than the Rule 5 process would indicate. Most teams just tend to leave the majority of their players exposed to the draft. I don't expect any different this Fall for the Brewers.