Brock Beauchamp

If he retires the contract is voided. He won’t retire, he’ll just quit playing baseball and still get paid.

I would absolutely be in favor of the Brewers doing exactly this.

Maybe that contract is too long and expensive but the Twins have about 50 MILLION to spend right now and if they were scared of Correa's price tag, they needed to spend that money elsewhere *two weeks ago*. The remaining options on the table are less than inspiring, to put it mildly. And to add insult to injury, earlier in the offseason they did stuff like trade Gio Urshela for a low minors prospect to clear even more money on payroll.

I'm pretty pissed off at the Twins front office right now. I'll just leave it at that.

That's on me. I literally posted this last night: So my editing failed hard yet again.

Yeah, I've tried to track down info and can't find anything. It's almost surely not happening, which is a bummer. I planned to try to make it out for the event if it was happening. If it was going to happen, we'd almost surely know about it. TwinsFest is January 28th and we've known the date and times for that going on a couple of months now.

This is a nice win for both teams and that's okay... but I'd rather be on the Brewer side of this deal. Getting Adames for 3.75 seasons, which could see him end up somewhere in the ~15 win range, is worth the price of a good pitcher for a contending team that already has lots of pitching.

Hmm. Well that's certainly NOT supposed to happen. What browser and device are you using where this happens? And do you use the site on other devices and does this same thing happen to you?

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

Yet another great analysis piece from DuWayne. Well done! And wow, it appears Matt Arnold slid into someone's DMs and stole the show from the A's and Braves.

Pretty hard not to be a HUGE fan of this trade. It appears the A's and Braves were at a standstill in their deal, allowing Arnold to sneak in and kinda rob everybody blind.

Hey, I flipped this over to the FA rumors section. In the future, please use that tool to post rumors of this kind. It REALLY helps the site because the FA section is much more google-friendly and set up to be promoted on social media (and it posts to this forum so from a user aspect, there's no real change to its appearance). Thanks!

With league-wide rule changes in place for defensive alignments in 2023, the left-hand-heavy Brewers offense could benefit more than others. We'll break down the numbers and see what, if any, advantage the Crew might gain from the new ruleset in the coming season. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports With league-wide rule changes in place for defensive alignments in 2023, the left-hand-heavy Brewers offense could benefit more than others. We'll break down the numbers and see what, if any, advantage the Crew might gain from the new ruleset in the coming season. However you feel about the new rules regarding infield defensive alignment, they're coming and probably here to stay. With strikeout totals soaring, defenses shifting on nearly every batter, and batters favoring launch angle and exit velocity over putting the ball in play, league-wide offense plummeted to an OPS of just .706. The league OPS was .700 in 2014 and .700 back in 1992 Over the past thirty years, the .706 OPS posted this past year is the third lowest league OPS. Baseball offense is down, and the powers that be don't seem to like it. On top of that, with strikeouts up and fewer balls in play turning into hits due to the shift, the phrase that more than one person has bandied about in the game (and without) is that the game "isn't aesthetically pleasing." With yearly tweaks being done at multiple levels in the minor leagues, the big one coming in 2023 is the *ban on defensive shifts. The asterisk shows up as we will see a partial ban on defensive positioning (at least not yet). The rules state that the defense must have four players with their feet on the infield dirt and two players on either side of second base when a pitch is thrown. With that in mind, defenses will still have a fair amount of freedom to shift a second baseman deep into the hole, have a shortstop right on top of second base, have the third baseman play in the shortstop position so on. We won't see a third baseman playing in short right field and a second baseman playing fifteen feet behind the first baseman, cutting off sharp line drives into the right field corner. So how does this affect or benefit the Brewers? Rule changes regarding defensive positioning should affect pull-hitting lefties nearly equally across the league. In 2023 the Brewers look to feature (again) a lefty-heavy lineup with mainstays Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez, newcomer Jesse Winker, and early indications are that Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick could both receive ample playing time in their rookie campaigns. Of the three lefties returning who'll see major playing time, Tellez is the most extreme pull hitter. (via FanGraphs) Partial SeasonsPostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2018 TOR MLB 1.06 26.0% 38.0% 36.0% 11.1% 22.2% 21.1% 0.0% 42.0% 30.0% 28.0% 18.0% 42.0% 40.0% 2019 TOR MLB 1.02 23.7% 38.5% 37.7% 10.3% 21.6% 1.0% 0.0% 42.0% 39.3% 18.7% 15.6% 42.8% 41.6% 2020 TOR MLB 1.38 20.0% 46.3% 33.7% 6.3% 25.0% 6.8% 0.0% 36.8% 37.9% 25.3% 20.0% 42.1% 37.9% 2021 2 Tms MLB 1.08 20.6% 41.2% 38.2% 12.4% 12.4% 11.5% 0.0% 36.5% 36.9% 26.6% 15.9% 48.5% 35.6% 2022 MIL MLB 0.86 15.6% 38.9% 45.5% 12.3% 18.7% 4.4% 0.0% 41.4% 39.7% 19.0% 17.5% 42.1% 40.4% Total - - - MLB 0.99 19.6% 40.0% 40.4% 11.3% 18.7% 6.2% 0.0% 40.1% 38.3% 21.6% 16.9% 43.7% 39.4% Teams shifted 78.4% of the time against Tellez, resulting in a .020 drop in his wOBA, per Statcast. Over the past two seasons, Tellez's shift data has been fairly consistent with teams shifting on him often, and Tellez hitting well in his opportunities against standard alignment. Another factor in Tellez's performance to be considered has to be the .215 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Well below his career norm, and any season he's had prior, the Brewers have to expect that number to rebound to some degree. Tellez doesn't strike out at the pace of most 30 - 35 home run sluggers, but having a bit higher BABIP would boost that slugging and OPS. Whether teams are shifting or not, that number seems unsustainable for another full season for Tellez. Despite the seeming perception of Christian Yelich grounding out repeatedly to second base, his spray chart, hit chart, and all the data shows that he distributes the ball evenly to all fields. (via FanGraphs) PostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2013 MIA MLB 4.58 23.0% 63.2% 13.8% 0.0% 16.7% 8.2% 0.0% 32.0% 36.0% 32.0% 17.1% 48.6% 34.3% 2014 MIA MLB 3.42 21.2% 61.0% 17.8% 1.3% 11.5% 6.0% 50.0% 27.8% 40.9% 31.3% 15.8% 50.0% 34.2% 2015 MIA MLB 4.16 22.5% 62.5% 15.0% 0.0% 12.5% 5.2% 0.0% 31.7% 40.5% 27.7% 17.1% 49.9% 33.1% 2016 MIA MLB 2.82 23.4% 56.5% 20.0% 5.6% 23.6% 6.0% 100.0% 36.0% 35.1% 29.0% 17.5% 44.5% 38.0% 2017 MIA MLB 2.20 19.4% 55.4% 25.2% 2.5% 15.3% 4.2% 50.0% 33.3% 37.4% 29.3% 15.9% 48.8% 35.2% 2018 MIL MLB 2.20 24.7% 51.8% 23.5% 4.9% 35.0% 6.6% 33.3% 34.9% 38.1% 27.0% 14.5% 37.9% 47.6% 2019 MIL MLB 1.20 20.9% 43.2% 35.9% 7.5% 32.8% 6.2% 0.0% 39.3% 37.4% 23.3% 14.4% 34.8% 50.8% 2020 MIL MLB 1.70 19.4% 50.8% 29.8% 0.0% 32.4% 1.6% 0.0% 38.7% 33.1% 28.2% 8.1% 50.8% 41.1% 2021 MIL MLB 2.29 22.0% 54.4% 23.7% 2.9% 13.2% 7.7% 100.0% 35.3% 35.3% 29.4% 15.9% 49.1% 34.9% 2022 MIL MLB 2.55 18.4% 58.6% 23.0% 5.3% 14.7% 6.2% 33.3% 34.4% 35.3% 30.3% 13.9% 52.2% 33.9% Total - - - MLB 2.46 21.5% 55.8% 22.7% 3.9% 21.7% 5.9% 44.4% 34.0% 37.3% 28.7% 15.4% 46.2% 38.4% Accordingly, teams don't shift on Yelich all that much, at 30.6%, and interestingly when they do, his wOBA last season was .368 in 206 plate appearances compared to the .311 wOBA posted in his non-shifted plate appearances. During previous campaigns from 2018 to 2021, teams were shifting on Yelich more in the 50-55% range. It could be that Yelich becoming more of a singles and doubles hitter, and definitely a guy who uses all fields, is forcing teams to defend the whole field. Jesse Winker is an interesting case, as he had an extreme down year in 2022, seemingly due to playing injured for much of the season. Winker's shift data is strange in that in all but one season in his career, he has posted a higher wOBA while being shifted than not shifted, yet teams continue to shift against him, and his spray charts and hit data suggest he is a heavy pull hitter. (via FanGraphs) PostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2017 CIN MLB 1.70 16.5% 52.6% 30.9% 3.3% 23.3% 2.0% 0.0% 40.8% 37.8% 21.4% 12.2% 52.0% 35.7% 2018 CIN MLB 1.24 24.0% 42.1% 33.9% 8.9% 8.9% 5.1% 50.0% 37.1% 37.1% 25.7% 11.8% 44.3% 43.9% 2019 CIN MLB 1.96 26.4% 48.7% 24.9% 4.3% 23.2% 1.5% 0.0% 39.9% 36.3% 23.7% 15.5% 43.2% 41.4% 2020 CIN MLB 1.67 23.1% 48.1% 28.8% 6.7% 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.2% 31.7% 22.1% 10.6% 40.4% 49.0% 2021 CIN MLB 1.26 24.7% 42.0% 33.3% 9.5% 20.7% 4.8% 0.0% 39.4% 35.6% 25.0% 15.8% 47.7% 36.5% 2022 SEA MLB 0.96 20.6% 38.9% 40.6% 17.4% 9.7% 4.3% 0.0% 38.5% 35.7% 25.8% 20.5% 50.8% 28.7% Total - - - MLB 1.32 23.2% 43.7% 33.1% 10.5% 17.1% 3.4% 28.6% 39.5% 35.9% 24.6% 15.6% 46.8% 37.6% There's a lot to parse here. Winker's hard hit percentage fell off a cliff last year, after trending down in 2021. His flyball percentage was well up, but it didn't really translate into home runs in Seattle, which is somewhat to be expected. First and foremost, for Winker's 2023 to be successful, he needs to be healthy. Digging through the data, it's hard to tell how much of Winker's drop off was due to injury, playing in Seattle, or other factors. With the limited ability to shift next year however, a healthy Winker should be able to benefit. The rest of the Brewers roster still has a lot of left handed sticks as of early December. Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick should see plenty of time in the outfield. Victor Caratini and newly acquired utility infielder Abraham Toro each hit from both sides of the plate. It's possible on any given night the Brewers could send as many as six batters to the dish from the left side of the plate. The Brewers struggled against left handed pitching last year, and with their current makeup, it's possible that trend could continue. As the off season continues, it will be interesting to see how General Manager Matt Arnold approaches the lineup makeup of the team as it currently stands. With youngsters Frelick and Mitchell, who have had varying success against left handed pitching in their minor league careers and who are both more suited to on base roles rather than slugging and run producing roles, the Brewers offense could see a boost against left-handed pitching with these types of players more able to utilize the diamond with the shift being banned. Sal Frelick's splits in 2022 - (via StatCast) Platoon Splits Team Lg Type PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS HBP AVG OBP SLG OPS Nashville Sounds Triple-A vs Left 77 66 26 1 2 1 11 6 7 3 .394 .467 .515 .982 Biloxi Shuckers Double-A vs Left 65 55 15 1 1 2 7 6 10 3 .273 .369 .436 .805 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers High-A vs Left 24 19 4 1 0 0 1 5 4 0 .211 .375 .263 .638 Nashville Sounds Triple-A vs Right 140 123 43 10 0 3 14 13 9 2 .350 .417 .504 .921 Biloxi Shuckers Double-A vs Right 188 169 56 11 2 3 18 14 23 1 .331 .384 .473 .857 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers High-A vs Right 68 60 19 4 1 2 8 8 10 0 .317 .397 .517 .914 After an initial struggle at High A, Frelick hit well against lefties at both stops the rest of the season. Whether that will translate into success against the tough lefties he'll face at the major league level remains to be seen, but certainly those numbers are encouraging. Ultimately, regardless of where the fielders stand, the Brewer offense should be better than it was in 2022, and it absolutely has to produce better results than it did against left-handed pitching. However, with a bevy of pull-heavy lefties on the roster, a ban on the shift could make life easier for a few of the guys who will most likely be installed in the middle of the order in Tellez and Winker. Despite the fact that the shift ban should affect everyone equally, a team heavy on left handed batters like the Brewers could benefit more than some if the lineup stays as currently constructed. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is the ban on the shift going to play any kind of role for the Brewers current lefty-heavy offense? Will the Brewers continue to struggle against left handed pitching regardless? Does Matt Arnold have a few more moves up his sleeves that will make a bigger difference than where the second baseman stands? Let us know what you think in the comments! 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While I'm not a huge fan of the trade for a few reasons, on paper it makes some sense. The Brewers gave up Wong, who is coming off a career high offensive season. In return, they received Jesse Winker, who is coming off a career low offensive season (largely due to injuries and possibly a bad home park). It's a classic buy low situation. And on top of that, they also brought in Toro, a cheap utility option with some upside.

It's happening every time? It's supposed to pop up once a week and that's how often I see it. Once you close it, it will stay closed for a week (I'd set it for an even longer time between appearances if there was a setting to do so).

To appease some users who don't like articles clogging up the Brewers forum, I've begun automatically sending videos to this forum so the primary forum doesn't populate as many article/video threads.

The mind boggles at the numbers we're seeing right now. Hunter Renfroe is potentially a nine figure contract guy. What world are we living in right now? It's just staggering.

I agree, I'm not that high on Swanson but someone out there is going to buy into his 2020 and 2022 seasons and give him a contract I would not personally give.

Given how this offseason is going, I think that 6/$150m number for Swanson is going to be way low. At this point, I'm fully expecting him to get something in the $200m range.

I hadn't considered this. What an interesting idea. I'm sure some team will try this, I'm really interested to see how it pans out.

The biggest problem (the way I see it) is television revenue. When the Brewers are drawing $40m a year from their TV contract while the Dodgers are drawing $250m, baseball is just going to be broken. And a salary cap doesn't really fix that on its own. I cannot see a situation where owners agree to this but TV revenue must be shared, just as teams share gate revenue. And at that point, you can probably get the MLBPA to agree to both a salary cap and floor. The union isn't necessarily against a salary cap, they're against a salary cap that allows owners to pocket more and more money. If you find a balance point where the floor and cap are tied to league revenue, the union likely agrees to it. And the way I see it, that basically fixes 75% of baseball's problems in one fell swoop.

Like the article points out, any move individually makes sense. But when combined, they're not exactly compelling. One thing that chaps me about the moves is that every MLB team received a $30m payout this offseason as Disney completed the BAMTech buyout. The Brewers could have easily invested that money into Wong and Renfroe while also patching up their roster. Both players are on expiring deals that come well under the one-time $30m revenue addition. With all of that said, it's still only December 9th. There's a lot of offseason left and I will reserve final judgment until we're well into Spring Training.

What I wonder about is if the Brewers just go for a rehab project like Sanchez instead of a real solution. And maybe that's fine if they find real solutions at other positions but right now, the market is thinning in a big way for impact players. This offseason is crystalizing in a much more rapid way than it has in the past... half decade? Longer.

What I wonder about is if the Brewers just go for a rehab project like Sanchez instead of a real solution. And maybe that's fine if they find real solutions at other positions but right now, the market is thinning in a big way for impact players. This offseason is crystalizing in a much more rapid way than it has in the past... half decade? Longer.