NBBrewFan

In 2024. They brought up Mitchell this year and he showed enough that I think he gets a long look for 2023. I think Frelick will be up and manning an OF spot in 2023. That's really 2 rookies. If they push it they will also incorporate Turang into a significant role. That get's you to 3 rookies. If they keep both Burnes and Woodruff that's already pushing how much offense with an uncertainty of what you will get in performance while still trying to ride them to a playoff appearance. I really don't see Wiemer in the 2023 plans and if they do have Frelick and Turang in the plans for 2023 then I am fine waiting to bring up more. Now if they decide to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames or 2 of 3 then Renfroe might be on the market too, but even in that scenario I think they keep Yelich in LF and have Mitchell/Frelick handle CF/RF.

I agree he has value even with an arbitration raise and you can't replace every player so you work with where you can get the biggest upgrade. Where I kinda understand the apathy for most of the players is that this was a very dysfunctional offense. The team was 21st in MLB in hits and 22nd (30=worst) for K% so we were entertained by tanking level hitting performance. I get that they still scored a lot of runs, but it was a very boring, frustrating team that was either hitting an extra base every few innings, or putting multiple runners on then striking out multiple times to kill a scoring opportunity or they were hitting a solo HR. When the failure rate goes up the perception is the team isn't good and that can paint every player as bad. I expect as we start seeing offseason moves there will be fewer knee-jerk proposals.

<Tangent Warning> I've done some work for friends on making donations to Universities including formal contracts with exact stipulations. Most of the Universities I have dealt with have a standard policy that the Athletic Department is ring-fenced from the general University as far as money/budget. The money isn't co-mingled so excess at the University does not get spent to pick up deficits in the Athletic Department and vice versa. If you ever want to donate money to your alma mater or any University/College (even if it's $10) you have the right to ask about their policy regarding Athletic Department budgets. If they refuse to tell you then it's best to just say you changed your mind. If you ever want to make a substantial donation, please google and look for advice on making stipulations as to how the money can be spent. If you give money without any stipulations it goes into a general fund that can be used on almost anything (most Universitites follow US & state government practices for allowable expense, but those can be vague). And there have been many reports of how general fund dollars can be abused. Some of the allowable are refreshments at happy hours hosted by an academic group, or renovations of the presidents office (MD Anderson's Cancer Center got in trouble for paying over $10M to renovate a recent directors/wifes offices). While you might not be concerned how the University spends the money, there are people that want the money they donate to go for a specific purpose. I spoke to one attorney that helped draft a donation for a billionaire (can't name them) that was so specific that it had conditions as to what would happen to any remaining balance if specific faculty left the University. Just an FYI <Tangent Done>

The Brewers were happy to go with this roster in 2022 so I'm not sure they see the "issues" with the players that we do. There was no indication they weren't going to start McCutcheon every day and he was the worst starter they played. So who knows if they've gone down a hole of custom sabermetrics that says he somehow had value or they just love 1-dimensional players (we got a roster full of them). So until we actually see what they do it's not clear if they actually think anything was wrong with the past year. I will say that dwindling attendance while the team was still very close to a playoff slot should be a clear signal to the organization what the fans thought about the product. So I have some hope they don't just run it back mostly intact (pick up Wong's option) with maybe adding Frelick to the OF and that's all for the offense. I really think the extent of the Remodel will be driven by what the buyers market looks like. If there is lots of demand for Burnes, Woodruff and/or Adames that results in really excellent deals then I think they would go toward leaving a wall up and remodeling most of the team. If the deals don't really offer as much value or are limited to Burnes, or not "can't turn down" offers then they are likely to do some spackle work and do a new paint job, Based on Stearns past I don't see him just trading players for the sake of making a change, he looks for value in the deal.

Maybe they saw the Phillies go up by 3 and realized there's no pressure now, so here we go...

I think that was reason #2 on the top 10 reasons "we didn't get into the lifeboats" from travelers on the Titanic.

One team is playing like a playoff spot is on the line. The other team is the Brewers.

I think there's a 2 run rally left in the Brewers tank.

I keep thinking the Brewers are trying to lose, but then I realize it's the Brewers and if they were trying to lose, they'd be winning.

Good to hear about you! Unfortunate about your neighbors. We were wondering how you were doing. I did remember you were in Ft. Myers and that area was hit hard.

Had to look it up because I knew one of their catchers homered during the last Brewers trip to Arizona.

First HR for Cooper Hummel in over 145 AB and first since April.

You don't need "punch" at every position. The Brewers are #5 in MLB/#3 in NL for ISO. They have plenty of punch. They aren't losing any getting rid of McCutcheon as he brings the Brewers ISO down. What they lack and severely lack is BA (and the BA component of OBP) where they are 22nd/11th in MLB/NL. You can get to the same runs scored through different routes and increasing the BA is what this offense needs (IMO). I speak of equal WAR not 1:1 with Renfroe, but with the lineups with and without Renfroe (plus trade acquisition). We might take a hit in the overall offense trading Renfroe, but the bullpen could take a step up to narrow the gap. It requires the right trade partner so I am not advocating it as a must do strategy, just something they could do given the right trade.

Why would we need to let Renfroe and Wong go? We should be able to outbid every large market team for Judge with the current payroll. Right?

I really don't get the non-tendering argument. I'm not a big fan of Renfroe, but he is still valuable at $10M. He's another hitter who gives up value due to statue defense and poor baserunning, but that doesn't erase 2-2.5 WAR for $10M. The player who is most likely to get non-tendered is Hiura. I expect them to see if they can get something of value either straight up or add him into another trade to get a slight upgrade in the pool of players to select. If neither of those approaches work I can see them just letting him go.

What was the Brewers record against the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins? Those are the 3 teams fielding AAA teams in the NL. At least the Marlins have some pitching so losing 3 of 4 must-win games isn't improbable, but these lineups should be easy shutouts or 1-run games for the pitching staff and here we are with an Elimination number of 1 and pretty much little hope because we couldn't out-talent the AAA teams in the majors.

Bingo. Multiple posters were questioning the team months ago based on the division they play in and their record since the record start to 2022. While many thought the team had a winning streak in them that could elevate them to a playoff team, it never materialized. While they aren't as bad as we feel at this point, there definitely needs to be changes and some additions including a new closer. Personally I would have waited until this offseason to move Hader, but it isn't my call. I think with the current bullpen situation and Hader's performance since the end of August, if the Brewers kept him we would be looking at a Wild Card Round of games instead of a cold winter. I'm guessing that would be 100% better than how we feel right now.

Z-

If the Brewers could get a decent RP for Renfroe then I think they should trade him and pick up Wong's option. That gives you an OF of Yelich/Mitchell/Frelick with Wong as the primary DH. Depending on the RP that would likely be slightly worse OF defense than with Renfroe and a little less offense, but a better bullpen. I would do it for the right RP especially if they might be able to handle closer and return Williams to the 8th inning man. Not sure 1 year of Renfroe will net that much, but it's another option if the right deal comes along. That leaves a possible outfield for 2024 with all prospects and a possible opening at 1B if we have success with multiple prospects (I doubt they look at Tellez other than a stopgap until a better option comes along).

Well his last 2 years isn't as encouraging in tying him up long-term nor getting a big offer from the Mets. In total he has been a very good GM/President, but like Plush has pointed out he isn't that infallible one-in-a-lifetime GM that we thought he would be. Maybe they should do what some teams have done and extend him 1 year when he has 1 year left on his contract. So he will have a rolling 2 year contract. That gives him some security while giving Attanasio some flexibility to make a change without being out a lot of money. I think the bigger question is how long does CC get a free ride when his managing this year has been pretty bad. Given his history he deserves a mulligan, but filling out the lineup card and implementing the teams analytic viewpoint, while 2 important roles they aren't the only ones. He needs to be a better communicator with the players as the clear unhappiness with the loss of Hader should have been handled by him in house. This team is finding ways to lose and it's not just the talent level of the team. There are issues that he has to take on and address which he may not think are important, but if the players think they are then they ARE important.

I definitely don't want to give the impression I think he's the next Mike Trout based on those 52 ABs. What I think is that his advantage and Frelick's and Turang's are that they are all very good defenders and very good baserunners both of which are assets that can help offset some of their initial shortcomings with the bat. He also should get some props for the fact he has been having a hot streak at the very time we needed it while the rest of the offense has gone fetal when they are most needed. I would be happy if he was a starter for most of 2023 and he put up 2-3 fWAR. That would be a great success and an improvement for this team. I think Frelick has the ability to be very productive by the end of his first year, but Turang will struggle as he has done the first time at a level, but by the end of the year he will could be average. Ruiz I have much less faith and think he will struggle mightily when put into a regular role. So 2 struggle bad, 2 good/average. I hope I am tempering my expectations sufficiently.

Reread what I posted, because I didn't call anyone's point of view as ignorant. The adjective for viewpoint was "biased" not ignorant. Try being less of the forum "tough guy" and you might not look like an ass so often.

Mitchell has 0.6 fWAR in 60 PA. He is above average in baserunning and defense and has the 2nd best wRC+ of any starter not Hunter Renfroe. The notion that rookies can't contribute is just a biased viewpoint that's ignorant of data. Some players struggle during their first exposure to MLB, some don't, some never are better than their first 300 PA. Mitchell has struggled since coming up, but he has also shown indications that he can handle a full-time role and give the Brewers better production than most of their other options. He may only be a 2-3 WAR player, but this offense needs that. As much as Stearns deserves taking some heat, they made a good decision to bring up Mitchell. I think Frelick is a better player than Mitchell and hopefully will transition better than Mitchell, but even with some initial struggles he will likely be more productive than our $26M man (not that low a bar). Ruiz will struggle, Turang will initially, but should be able to adjust. Let the prospects FREE! Frelick and Mitchell in LF/CF, Renfroe in RF (Taylor as 4th). Ruiz in AAA learning more (hopefully). Turang/Urias/Adames for 2B/3B/SS based on best defensive production. Tellez at 1B. Starting Pitching is a bit of an uncertainty, but they have an excellent 1-3 in Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. Houser and Lauer are capable, 4/5 men, with the current 1-3. If the Brewers can't extend Woodruff they should trade him or Burnes for the best package, but some ideas have been to Mets for Baty or Texas for Jung both of which would be the 3B of the future for the Brewers or to Baltimore for Rodriguez/Holliday which brings back a SP replacement and a future SS. If they trade one of Burnes/Woodruff then they either slot Ashby into the rotation, or look for a 1 year vet FA that can slot into the rotation and have Ashby spend another year in the bullpen. Relief pitching is a mess. Williams and Milner are good enough. Boxberger should be signed. None of them are ideal closers and Milner/Boxberger are 6/7 inning options. Cousins is always hurt so I wouldn't count on him at all (if he is success in 2023 then that's bullpen upside). The rest are JAGs. Bush would be fine if they had 2 better options. So Stearns needs to find at least 2 RP arms with upside including one that has closer ability. Good luck. Catching will not be great, but could be fine with Caratini & Severeno. Narvaez has been pretty much useless this year and will be gone. That leaves Yelich for DH and either Wong/Peterson as a bench bat. Wong's defense is so bad that he really should not see the field which makes him a poor backup option for the Infield. While Wong's bat is likely worth picking up the option, he very likely doesn't have a role as Yelich should be the fulltime DH. Picking up the option and trading him sounds interesting, but I can't think of another similar situation in baseball. Trading Adames and both of Woodruff and Burnes should be on the table as their best trade value is this offseason, but that means losing your 2 best pitchers and best hitter and that isn't a recipe for a World Series Championship, but we aren't getting there with them and with the current bullpen and with the current hitters. While I think they should only trade 1, I can see them Trading 2 or even all 3 if the right deal comes along. If they decide to run it back with most of the same cast and a little tinkering with the bullpen that will just free up a lot more of my time next year.

There, fixed it for you.

Joe Barry may not be able to carry Pettine's jock. This defense (the self-annointed top Defense) is looking pretty mediocre to start the year.