NBBrewFan

Who's the bigger fool - the fans who think the Brewers have a chance at their current payroll rank or the fans who think the Brewers should spend more to put a competitive team on the field?

When will my buggy whip stock go up? I blame the government for cutting horse and buggy subsidies!

So one way I wanted to address whether our perception that the Brewers were bad at turning runners into runs was to look at LOB numbers in relation to OBP (If you get on at a high level you would also LOB at a higher level). I "lost" the excel file so I can't post a graph or the numbers, but the Brewers were above the trendline for OBP vs LOB (MLB in general). So the Brewers LOB number was lower than you would expect given their OBP. So our perception is just that a perception and didn't match the reality that the Brewers were slightly better than expected (based on OBP) of converting runners into runs. The one outlier I noticed at the high end of LOB was the Padres as they left many more men on base than their OBP indicated which kinda makes sense that they were desperate to upgrade their offense at the trade deadline. There were other outliers I just don't recall them. From what I recall the Brewers were about the same location WRT the trendline as the Dodgers (Higher OBP, Higher LOB) and pretty close to the Cubs.

So one way I wanted to address whether our perception that the Brewers were bad at turning runners into runs was to look at LOB numbers in relation to OBP (If you get on at a high level you would also LOB at a higher level). I "lost" the excel file so I can't post a graph or the numbers, but the Brewers were above the trendline for OBP vs LOB (MLB in general). So the Brewers LOB number was lower than you would expect given their OBP. So our perception is just that a perception and didn't match the reality that the Brewers were slightly better than expected (based on OBP) of converting runners into runs. The one outlier I noticed at the high end of LOB was the Padres as they left many more men on base than their OBP indicated which kinda makes sense that they were desperate to upgrade their offense at the trade deadline. There were other outliers I just don't recall them. From what I recall the Brewers were about the same location WRT the trendline as the Dodgers (Higher OBP, Higher LOB) and pretty close to the Cubs.

Well it's never a "THE" problem. It's often "A"/"one" problem. Their hitting with RISP is below average, but not significantly lower that it is a Major Issue. There are probably 5 to 6 other problems with a larger impact so it is relatively low on the list.

Well it's never a "THE" problem. It's often "A"/"one" problem. Their hitting with RISP is below average, but not significantly lower that it is a Major Issue. There are probably 5 to 6 other problems with a larger impact so it is relatively low on the list.

You are correct that most teams need to plan for 8 SP or at least for some "quality" depth to fill in missed starts. I think Stearns/etc. were fooled by the good fortune in 2021 plus with limited resources they had to decide how to use the assets they had and spending it on rotation depth wasn't high on the list. In hindsight how much better would they have been if they didn't sign McCutcheon and spent the $8M on a Wade Miley-TYPE signing of a vet to man the 6th spot and pushed everyone back one on the depth chart. Hard to know, but given how things shook out I'd bet if they went that route we'd be discussing SP alignment for the Wild Card round.

You are correct that most teams need to plan for 8 SP or at least for some "quality" depth to fill in missed starts. I think Stearns/etc. were fooled by the good fortune in 2021 plus with limited resources they had to decide how to use the assets they had and spending it on rotation depth wasn't high on the list. In hindsight how much better would they have been if they didn't sign McCutcheon and spent the $8M on a Wade Miley-TYPE signing of a vet to man the 6th spot and pushed everyone back one on the depth chart. Hard to know, but given how things shook out I'd bet if they went that route we'd be discussing SP alignment for the Wild Card round.

1. I don't think the decision to sign McCutcheon was a bad one. The decision to trot him out almost every day,no matter how bad he performed, was the bad decision. He also should have been platooned, but in CC's mind Cutch was the platoon for McCutcheon. Just horrible decision making during the season. 2. I don't think they relied on Small that much. They were hesitant to promote him due to not improving enough at AAA. Ashby was the primary depth for SP and he struggled, then with mutlitple injuries they had LindBOOM sitting at Nashville and Alexander and Small as the "depth". They went with 2 of the 3 and Alexander was successful initially and Small not. I'm glad they didn't even try LindBOOM, but when Alexander was struggling they went waiver wire/FA dumpster diving for the likes of Chi Chi Rodriguez. I get they don't have the $$$ for depth, but with Gasser they might have one more option that might be able to put up #4/#5 starter numbers if needed. 3. Trade Deadline - BINGO! They took a mediocre pen and removed the elite closer and added a bunch of meh to caca. Sending the message to the players that the long game matters, this season? nah.

1. I don't think the decision to sign McCutcheon was a bad one. The decision to trot him out almost every day,no matter how bad he performed, was the bad decision. He also should have been platooned, but in CC's mind Cutch was the platoon for McCutcheon. Just horrible decision making during the season. 2. I don't think they relied on Small that much. They were hesitant to promote him due to not improving enough at AAA. Ashby was the primary depth for SP and he struggled, then with mutlitple injuries they had LindBOOM sitting at Nashville and Alexander and Small as the "depth". They went with 2 of the 3 and Alexander was successful initially and Small not. I'm glad they didn't even try LindBOOM, but when Alexander was struggling they went waiver wire/FA dumpster diving for the likes of Chi Chi Rodriguez. I get they don't have the $$$ for depth, but with Gasser they might have one more option that might be able to put up #4/#5 starter numbers if needed. 3. Trade Deadline - BINGO! They took a mediocre pen and removed the elite closer and added a bunch of meh to caca. Sending the message to the players that the long game matters, this season? nah.

Good to see Frelick have a full season in the minors when clearly the Brewers major league team didn't need him this year.

Good to see Frelick have a full season in the minors when clearly the Brewers major league team didn't need him this year.

Is there $8M to spend? If there is then Wong is very good value at $8M. The issue is where do you play him? He should spend a lot less time in the field and against LH pitching (wRC+ vs LH = 33, wRC+ vs RH = 134) and Yelich should see less of the field and more DH with less of a handed bias (wRC+ vs LH = 86, wRC+ vs RH = 118) who really should be the primary DH next season. I guess when a SP has a higher Ground ball rate Yelich is in LF and Wong DH, and a SP with a higher Fly Out rate then Wong is at 2B and Yelich DHs. What we are looking at for offense is adding Frelick and Mitchel/Taylor (full time) to replace McCutcheon and Cain/Taylor then we either Lose Peterson and/or Wong or keep one (I doubt both). That offense would be worse losing both, but about the same if we kept either. What are the plans for Turang? I don't know if the Brewers really want him in Milwaukee next year. So one of Peterson/Wong are likely necessary if they keep Turang in AAA until they see how 2023 is progressing. They could very well run most of the same team back out for 2023 (minus Peterson) and have a similar offense and a better defense/health to pitching which puts us from where we are today to a likely WC spot (maybe a division win/3rd seed if the Cards regress) next year. Personally I don't think they can stay close to the same team and sell the fans (the "Average" fans that drive attendance ) that this team is going to be significantly better. I also don't know if the Brewers see a need for a 3B as they likely could think Urias just had an off year and don't look to upgrade 3B. What we think is the problem with the team may not be what Stearns/Arnold/Counsell think. We'll see which way they are likely headed as Wong's option will likely be one of the first off-season "moves".

I did that before we moved back to WI. In fact the upright was still connected to the roof from the previous installation (DirecTV IIRC) so I was able to easily clamp the outdoor antenna on, point it at the towers and connect the cable to the antenna and all the cable outlets in the house now had the HD antenna feed. No need for the AirTV (unless you want to record). We lived about 3 miles from the towers and had pristine HD almost 100% of the time. Also consider putting an outdoor antenna in the attic. Works almost the exact same as having it on the roof (depending on your position and where the towers are located) without having to deal with the weather and wiring 50+ feet of cable. It's relatively easy to run cable down an inside wall and to an outlet that you punch in the wall to attach the AirTV. The first time I went up into our attic in WI I found the previous owners had an outdoor antenna hanging there and they had wired most of the house with outlets so I was able to easily switch the antenna into the wall outlet on the 2nd floor attached the AirTV and had HD for any TV.

Well I am fine if CC took him out because of the baserunning mistake. The rest of the season CC gets an F grade for how he managed the DH spot. I just hope if CC is successful running Hiura out of town like he was with Villar that the Brewers just cut him loose instead of giving away another prospect and getting a negative value player back. Just cut bait and while Villar has been very hot/cold since leaving he's put up about 5 fWAR in 5 seasons. We just paid $8M to get to a free agent and got 0.4 fWAR so Villar has provided some value. Maybe if Keston get's out of the doghouse he can at least have a few years of productive baseball somewhere else.

I do look at as a missed opportunity. There really were only 8 teams in the NL with realistic chances at 6 playoff spots (the current 6 qualifiers plus the Brewers and Giants). That's pretty good odds coming off a 95 win season. I think more teams in the rebuild/don't care to compete group are going to look at what it did take to make that last playoff spot this year and invest more to get within striking distance of the playoffs. The last offseason with the lockout and delayed Spring Training gave those teams little time to do much and they weren't sure how the new playoff structure would play out. Now they have the time and the idea and with attendance down in multiple cities I think that means more competition from some of those teams and increasing cost to add those bargain FA like Wong and McCutcheon (and lest we all forget, JBJ), it will also likely drive up costs for mid-level pitching and players like Jace Peterson may be getting starting offers vs. 75% Utility man slots. Our budget and circumstances likely change going forward with being much harder to add a bargain through free agency. Any economics that increases cost of players disproportionately impacts the smallest market in baseball. I could be wrong and many of the current owners that are happy just walking away with $30-40M in profit fielding a horrible team will keep doing it, but if attendance keeps going down and it's clear that many of these organizations aren't making any progress there may be more friction among owners about the current welfare system in baseball (revenue sharing) and a push to start investing the revenue sharing.

I do look at as a missed opportunity. There really were only 8 teams in the NL with realistic chances at 6 playoff spots (the current 6 qualifiers plus the Brewers and Giants). That's pretty good odds coming off a 95 win season. I think more teams in the rebuild/don't care to compete group are going to look at what it did take to make that last playoff spot this year and invest more to get within striking distance of the playoffs. The last offseason with the lockout and delayed Spring Training gave those teams little time to do much and they weren't sure how the new playoff structure would play out. Now they have the time and the idea and with attendance down in multiple cities I think that means more competition from some of those teams and increasing cost to add those bargain FA like Wong and McCutcheon (and lest we all forget, JBJ), it will also likely drive up costs for mid-level pitching and players like Jace Peterson may be getting starting offers vs. 75% Utility man slots. Our budget and circumstances likely change going forward with being much harder to add a bargain through free agency. Any economics that increases cost of players disproportionately impacts the smallest market in baseball. I could be wrong and many of the current owners that are happy just walking away with $30-40M in profit fielding a horrible team will keep doing it, but if attendance keeps going down and it's clear that many of these organizations aren't making any progress there may be more friction among owners about the current welfare system in baseball (revenue sharing) and a push to start investing the revenue sharing.

It all comes down to 3 and 4. For the Brewers to pass either the Phillies or Padres they have to lose 3 less than the Phillies and 4 less than the Padres. That leaves us with the following possibilities: I don't think the Brewers will do better than 6-3 over the last 9, but they could go 7-2. That leaves the Phillies as the likely team to pass and they have to go 5-5 or worse. The Phillies are 12-2 vs the Nats this year so the 4 game series may be the key if the Phillies take 2 from the Cubs (Wheeler and Nola will be pitching against the Cubs) then the Phillies could easily take 3 of 4 from the Nats and have the 5 wins that requires the Brewers to go 7-2. Even if the Brewers go 7-2 the Phillies need to win 1 against the Astros (if they go 5-2 against the Cubs/Nats). If the Brewers go 7-2 the Padres only have to win 4 of their last 9 and with the Giants and White Sox in town to end the season I think even if the Dodgers sweep the Padres, they pick up the 4 wins at home to finish the season. Still a glimmer of hope. Just don't lose bad to Mikolas on Tuesday and they likely could beat Quintana on Wednesday.

It all comes down to 3 and 4. For the Brewers to pass either the Phillies or Padres they have to lose 3 less than the Phillies and 4 less than the Padres. That leaves us with the following possibilities: I don't think the Brewers will do better than 6-3 over the last 9, but they could go 7-2. That leaves the Phillies as the likely team to pass and they have to go 5-5 or worse. The Phillies are 12-2 vs the Nats this year so the 4 game series may be the key if the Phillies take 2 from the Cubs (Wheeler and Nola will be pitching against the Cubs) then the Phillies could easily take 3 of 4 from the Nats and have the 5 wins that requires the Brewers to go 7-2. Even if the Brewers go 7-2 the Phillies need to win 1 against the Astros (if they go 5-2 against the Cubs/Nats). If the Brewers go 7-2 the Padres only have to win 4 of their last 9 and with the Giants and White Sox in town to end the season I think even if the Dodgers sweep the Padres, they pick up the 4 wins at home to finish the season. Still a glimmer of hope. Just don't lose bad to Mikolas on Tuesday and they likely could beat Quintana on Wednesday.

There are 2 limitations to the AirTV 2: 1) Only 2 devices can "stream"/record local channels at the same time (can be different channels). If you are planning on recording local channels (See #2) it effects the number of streams available for watching as a recording takes 1 of the available tuners. So AirTV 2 can record 2, watch 1/record 1, or watch 2 at the same time. The AirTV Anywhere device, also on special with Sling, but $99, has 4 tuners so you can watch/record 4. 2) There is no DVR functionality built in for local channels (the sling built in DVR will not record local channels), but you can hook up a 1-2 Tb USB hard disk drive to the AirtTV 2 then you can record up to 200 hours of local TV. The AirTV Anywhere device has 1 Tb built-in for DVR. Edit: There are also other devices that allow you to hook up your HD antenna to your wi-fi network. One is a Tablo that has various device options. You use their app and hook up a USB drive for recording (I don't think the newer versions have a built-in HDD, but I am not sure). No integration with Sling and more $. The nice thing about the Tablo is you have a lot more functionality with how you setup the device (AirTV is pretty much plug and play - no customization). One negative for Tablo is that you need to pay for the the Guide for shows (with AirTV it's built into the sling app) to see what's playing so an additional monthly charge or a large lifetime subscription purchase. I have also tried the HDHomerun device (first gen) and I believe the main issue with them is they don't use wifi and require an ethernet connection to your network (an issue since my wifi and antenna have never been on the same floor). The other issue is how they DVR shows as I believe they require a network storage device, but I believe some of the newer versions have a built-in DVR/HDD. I also hated the interface as the AirTV and Tablo are 10X better. Overall the easiest and cheapest to use would be the AirTV devices (mostly as Sling bought them several years ago to allow local channel access).

I've used a flat pad type indoor HD antenna for awhile and usually just tape it to the glass in the upper corner of a window that faces where the antennas are located. In some cities it wasn't necessary (I could put it on a wall), but I found in WI that the window works the best. Second level usually helps. The issue is where is your TV in relation to the best location. To make that irrelevant, I got an AirTV through Sling when they had a deal. The AirTV device allows the Antenna to connect to your wi-fi network so that any TV that can run the Sling App will have the channels integrated into Sling. The good thing is that it still works when you cancel Sling so you have a local channel setup until something breaks (I am on year 8 of my AirTV). At the moment they are running a $49 special for a HD antenna and an AirTV2 when you prepay 3 months of Sling. I haven't used the RCA antenna that is part of that deal, but I have used an RCA outdoor antenna and it worked very well. So if you are committing to Sling for at least 3 months think about the $49 special for an HD antenna and the AirTV2. The other advantage is that within the part of the Sling App to scan for the channels they have a crude signal strength metric so you can literally move the antenna from room to room and rescan the channels and see where you are getting the best reception based on signal strength and 99% of the time reception quality is directly related to signal strength.

I wouldn't put the Odds of a return so high for Peterson as he is a free agent and will be dealing with every team in MLB. The Brewers can't afford a bidding war on a utility player when there is little "disposable" budget. I would support bringing him back if the money is right, especially if they jettison Wong. Rogers ERA+ is so bad because he has given up 6 HR in less than 20 innings with the Brewers. Given his age I'd be concerned that isn't just a blip, but the sign that his stuff is declining. So far he's way too expensive to take that chance. If they keep Rogers and Boxberger they need to be a better option so both are shifted to lower pressure innings I don't think you can just assume they can continue in their current roles for the purposes of addressing the bullpen issues.

I wouldn't put the Odds of a return so high for Peterson as he is a free agent and will be dealing with every team in MLB. The Brewers can't afford a bidding war on a utility player when there is little "disposable" budget. I would support bringing him back if the money is right, especially if they jettison Wong. Rogers ERA+ is so bad because he has given up 6 HR in less than 20 innings with the Brewers. Given his age I'd be concerned that isn't just a blip, but the sign that his stuff is declining. So far he's way too expensive to take that chance. If they keep Rogers and Boxberger they need to be a better option so both are shifted to lower pressure innings I don't think you can just assume they can continue in their current roles for the purposes of addressing the bullpen issues.

That's reasonable, I've left plenty of disagreement comments to specific articles. I don't complain about the general use of articles when there is no obligation to read them like the ads, which are 100 times more intrusive.

I agree that we should give feedback, but this was already brought up in an earlier thread. I think the first mod to see it should have locked it with a link to the previous discussion (IMHO), or rolled them together. I just ignore the Articles unless I see something I want to look at, but I also use a laptop and not a phone or tablet (both of which are nightmares to use for me).