NBBrewFan

Wow you really have a distorted view of reality. His data for the year is 541 PAs in the minors and 36 PA in MLB. It's not contrarian. It's fact. You can make an argument about the relative quality of that data, but not that the data isn't data. You are stating yearly stats. Those include 36 PAs in MLB. THAT's A FACT. See above. And none of it is predictive since the number of prospects that achieve some success (it really has been 1 year) and fail at MLB far exceeds the number that succeed in MLB. There's nothing predictive about being wrong >50% of the time. Two people throw **** against the wall, one get's more to stick, that one must be the better predictor...

So you think it's ok to leave out data? I'm fine if you want to be dishonest, but I prefer to place it all on the table.

That washed up reliever we shipped them for a bunch of projects... I mean prospects... is sure getting lucky. Don't those Dodgers know Hader is washed up?

Did you miss the following: Esteury Ruiz: 36 PAs of 171/194/257 with 1 SB/2 CS in MLB in 2022?

Well I agree with much of this. It seems we are judging the person and not the action. Plenty of very decent people do / act in very bad ways, but that doesn't make what they did any less serious. I also don't buy into the outcome as a measure of culpability. So what if he wasn't hurt, the action that is objectionable is pushing someone simply because they are in your way. Whether that person falls into a pile of feathers/pillows or a pile of broken glass is irrelevant to the infraction. It's as silly as saying it's ok to fire a gun through your front door every time someone rings the doorbell. Sure you may often miss hitting anything, but is it reasonable to do that? Is it only unreasonable when someone gets hit? No, it's the initial act that is unreasonable. This is an NFL game where 90%+ of their revenue is based on televising the game to as large an audience as possible including through the use of live video and photo images. That package of entertainment has allowed the owners and players to enjoy record revenues and salaries. While the players may be the stars of this production, all the associated personnel are the various support staff that make their success possible. I don't see this as any different than Christian Bale or any other actor going off on the staff during a filming, except instead of a verbal confrontation it was physical. It really does make the star look like an ass, but there are always going to be a vocal group who support the star. As then I expect the Studio/NFL to just ignore it and hope the situation dies.

Well the law is applied disproportionately all the time so legally it is ok to assault someone sometimes. Are you asking on an ethical/moral basis is it "ok"?

Who's the bigger fool - the fans who think the Brewers have a chance at their current payroll rank or the fans who think the Brewers should spend more to put a competitive team on the field?

Good Idea! Can we swing it for a 3rd round plus? We don't need that pick anyways since we never get anything of value for them through the draft.

When will my buggy whip stock go up? I blame the government for cutting horse and buggy subsidies!

Like many Brewers fans felt after 2018? That experience has lead to a 1-6 record since then in the postseason.

If there was a Hall of Fame for Head Coaches that couldn't make an in-game adjustment to save their lives, MLF would be the first inductee and it would be named after him. This isn't rocket science. There's 2 halves. The other team is going to make adjustments at halftime. You should TOO! At least when Rodgers finally retires and MLF is exposed as an OC (at best) hopefully they don't wait long to fire his ass. Maybe by that time the ******* Murphy will be gone so he won't have a role in hiring the replacement.

Well they like to manipulate the baseball so I don't know why they don't manipulate the mound since BA has tanked, strikeouts are way up, stolen bases are way down and a cricket match is considered high activity compared to MLB game. That all equals watching paint dry as a professional sport. Younger people are tuning out and it's almost all due to a boring product with little action. Maybe they should make changes that make the product interesting. Having a runner on second to start the 10th is as dumb as the 3 batter rule - it doesn't address the real problem.

I'm guessing that's only a small part of the problem as the attendance issues predate any discussion of a name change and pretty much started when they went into full rebuild mode then continued to trade away players as they became stars. Cleveland seems to get owners who think PR is just short hand for punt return or pinch runner.

I'm guessing that maybe, just maybe, the 12 playoff teams as a group have better pitching that the 18 teams that didn't make it. That's just a guess.

And they couldn't even fill the stadium. The Dolan's are a prime example of what a horrible ownership group can do to poison the fan base. This was a city that for 5-6 years had over 3M per year in attendance and sold out the park for more than 450 straight games at one point (don't even know the Miller Park record, but it most likely involves the playoffs) and now struggles to fill half that park during the regular season. Exciting team, horrible ownership, fan abandonment.

Exactly. Also his 111 wRC+ puts him at #110th in MLB for players with more than 250PA. Two other rate stats put him 69th (xwOBA) and 98th (wOBA) among 317 players with more than 250PA. Those aren't great, but they are in the top third of hitters to the top 25%, while not approaching his MVP season he is much closer to All-star than replacement level.

I'm not that high on Drury as others. For his career he has 3.6 fWAR and 3.0 came last year. Did he finally "get it" in his age 29 season or did he just put up a career year that will never be approached. I'm betting there will be some deeper pockets that think the former and he will just be too expensive for the risk (I hope). Peterson is a lower risk, lower ceiling signing that will probably be significantly cheaper. Just picking up Wong's option would likely be better money spent until they get a good look at Turang. Contreras will be 31 in May of next year so he doesn't have a ton of mileage left on his legs to be a full-time catcher for long. Especially as he will be looking for a 5 yr or longer contract. We already have Yelich who's best value over the remainder of his contract is at DH. Someone like Jansen from Toronto is a much better option for a full-time C given the cost and age/timeline. Edit: I love Murphy from Oakland, but the cost to get him would likely be most of our OF prospects so getting him would be an all-in move for 2023 leaving a pretty empty cupboard.

I wonder when he reflects on 2022, does CC think to himself. if only we had Cutch for those 2 weeks in May we might have squeaked into the playoffs?

So one way I wanted to address whether our perception that the Brewers were bad at turning runners into runs was to look at LOB numbers in relation to OBP (If you get on at a high level you would also LOB at a higher level). I "lost" the excel file so I can't post a graph or the numbers, but the Brewers were above the trendline for OBP vs LOB (MLB in general). So the Brewers LOB number was lower than you would expect given their OBP. So our perception is just that a perception and didn't match the reality that the Brewers were slightly better than expected (based on OBP) of converting runners into runs. The one outlier I noticed at the high end of LOB was the Padres as they left many more men on base than their OBP indicated which kinda makes sense that they were desperate to upgrade their offense at the trade deadline. There were other outliers I just don't recall them. From what I recall the Brewers were about the same location WRT the trendline as the Dodgers (Higher OBP, Higher LOB) and pretty close to the Cubs.

So one way I wanted to address whether our perception that the Brewers were bad at turning runners into runs was to look at LOB numbers in relation to OBP (If you get on at a high level you would also LOB at a higher level). I "lost" the excel file so I can't post a graph or the numbers, but the Brewers were above the trendline for OBP vs LOB (MLB in general). So the Brewers LOB number was lower than you would expect given their OBP. So our perception is just that a perception and didn't match the reality that the Brewers were slightly better than expected (based on OBP) of converting runners into runs. The one outlier I noticed at the high end of LOB was the Padres as they left many more men on base than their OBP indicated which kinda makes sense that they were desperate to upgrade their offense at the trade deadline. There were other outliers I just don't recall them. From what I recall the Brewers were about the same location WRT the trendline as the Dodgers (Higher OBP, Higher LOB) and pretty close to the Cubs.

While that's a good thought, Usually the getting expensive part of Arby is Arby2/3 so he may command a bigger price tag to get him than he would in 2024 as the Indians could be ok with his Arby1 cost.

I don't think there's a brewerfan on the planet and maybe the ISS who wouldn't be tickled pink if Frelick out "produced" Yelich in 2023 while Yelich puts up 2.5 WAR. Frelick has a lot of potential, but no projection should replace data. As other's have noted having them 1/2 in the order (Yelich with vg speed/basrunning) in front of a contact hitter with a chance to have a high BA, while moving Adames down would go a long way to helping this lineup blend their hitting approaches. Also, as noted by others (Sveum IIRC) while we aren't seeing MVP Yelich he is still putting up decent numbers compared to a large group of FA who were signed over the past few years. I'm not happy with it, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't cripple this team any more than paying Ryan Braun $105M+ for 8.2 fWAR.

If Yelich was a full time DH batting leadoff he is likely to be the 6th/7th best DH in MLB. He put up greater than 2.5 WAR this year even with fielding that is below average. He was our 4th best hitter in 2022 by WAR and 1 of the top 3 is Wong and he might not be back. At this point he could take some time to learn 1B, but for another year he's likely never going to be a better option then our current LH 1B. Yelich is suited to be the primary DH in 2023 no matter how much you dislike him.

Uhhh, No, one of the big market teams would not do that. There's so much negative value in Yelich/his contract that you would have to package Burnes with him to get some team to take him and then you've wasted Burnes as an asset. Yes large market teams have lots of money, but the day of looking for a dumb GM to make a deal for Yelich is long gone.

Well it's never a "THE" problem. It's often "A"/"one" problem. Their hitting with RISP is below average, but not significantly lower that it is a Major Issue. There are probably 5 to 6 other problems with a larger impact so it is relatively low on the list.