Tommy Ciaccio

Two games of interleague play may feel low stakes, so how about following it up with four games against a division rival? The Brewers are careening toward the halfway point in the season and in a tight race to win a division that isn't likely to yield a Wild Card. Expect excitement at PNC Park. There is a meaningful difference between being abyssal and being bad. The former is directionless, infinite feeling darkness no matter which direction you’re going. When you’re on an abyssal baseball team the harbingers are all there. An obligatory reliever with 0.1 WAR getting an All-Star nod, and the one or two halfway decent players are deflated and neutered by the pointlessness of a long season that moves as the crow flies straight toward defeat. Then there is the bad that we are seeing being played in Pittsburgh. A 29-45 record that suggests the same abject slog toward an unceremonious end in September, but if you look a little closer you start to see the forest as well as the trees. This upstart Pirates team is saddled with a few sparks of legitimate, bright young talent. David Bednar has been nails in his second year with Pittsburgh after being traded from the Padres, archetype-shattering Oneil Cruz is making some of the funnest-to-watch plays at shortstop. Most impressive has been young 3rd baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes , who, if on the Brewers, would lead the team in WAR at 2.9 through June. Does this make the Pirates a good team? Categorically and statistically speaking, no, but it makes them an enthusiastic and hopeful entity that the Brewers can’t just unconsciously steamroll. Let’s check out the match-ups! Thursday June 30th Adrian Houser (4-8 4.50 ERA) JT Brubaker (1-7 4.14 ERA) The higher the fall the harder the crash, and Adrian Houser ’s crash is getting hard to watch. A miserable start against Toronto culminated in six straight hits, each with an exit velo over 97 MPH, with Matt Chapman ’s 109 MPH three-run double doing the bulk of the damage. Credit to the sinkerballer who is reportedly working on his mechanics to right the ship. Meanwhile, Bucs righty and opening day starter JT Brubaker will taking the mound with a deceptive record to this point. Seven losses are a little hard to figure into the analysis when you put up a 2.63 ERA over the course of a month. That was May, and he’s looking to punctuate his June with nearly identical numbers against the Crew. Friday July 1st Corbin Burnes (6-4 2.41 ERA) Roansy Contreras (2-1 2.76 ERA) Corbin Burnes is just gliding through the opposition like a hot knife through butter. Even during the Brewers skid Burnes served as a reliable stopper, and in his last start he calmly pitched in to the eighth inning against a burly Toronto team. Roansy Contreras is yet another young and exciting player in a team stacked with high ceiling rookies. Contreras performed dutifully and picked up his second career win against the Cubs with one run over fiving innings, numbers that were reflected in his next start against the Rays. High ceiling and a few solid performances aside, there is some greasing of the wheels Contereras will need to accomplish if he is to truly thrive. The 4.00 BB/9 is hardly tenable, and the 2.76 ERA belies the 4.16 FIP. Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on if for no reason than to see what to plan for in the future. Saturday July 2nd T.B.D. T.B.D. As of 10:15 P.M. on the 29th there is no account of who will be pitching this game on either team, but odds are that the Brewers will be turning to the sturdy Jason Alexander over Chi Chi Gonzalez who, after being claimed off of waivers from the Twins, promptly lost his start against the Cardinals. Sunday July 3rd Brandon Woodruff (6-3 4.44 ERA) Jose Quintana (1-4 3.43 ERA) Brewers fans must be breathing a heavy sigh of relief after Brandon Woodruff ’s performance against the Rays on Tuesday. Woody wasn’t just good, he was the best he’d looked all season, against a good team playing on their turf no less. It feels worth mentioning that the reason for Woodruff's set back when he was on the IL wasn't a typical injury, but Raynaud's syndrome, a circular issue that affects the limbs. The syndrome wasn't detected in his pitching hand and certainly didn't hamper him in his last start. It feels more than a little possible that Jose Quintana is wearing a different uniform before this start even takes place. The historic Brewers killer has been the most impressive reclamation project this year and after looking washed last year, has amassed far too much trade value this year to remain on the flailing Pirates. Players To Watch Ke’Bryan Hayes: As mentioned above, Hayes is a stud. Between his glove, his bat and his 25 years of age, he’s making the eight-year $70MM contract he signed on April 12th look like the bargain of the century. Every Starter: Everyone of these games is a must watch from the perspective of watching pitching. It’s worth watching Houser to see if he can turn it around, Woodruff to see if he can replicate Tuesday’s dominance and Burnes because… well, because it’s Corbin Burnes. On the flipside the two confirmed Pirates arms are likely to be building their repertoire at PNC for years to come, and getting to know the rival is valuable. As far as Quintana goes, it’ll be interesting to see if he can still handle the Brewers the way he had in the past, and maybe jog the collective imagination about what he might look like in a Brewers uniform. Predictions Predicting a sweep doesn’t ever feel satisfying, but the Brewers best arms are playing against an offense that, while promising, is still undeveloped. It’s a four-game series, and I think the resurgent Crew can take three… but we remember what happened with the Nationals. View full article

The Brewers follow a day off with a brief getaway series against the Rays, who sit fourth in what is shaping up to be the toughest division in baseball. Milwaukee's stock is ticking back up, and a series win over a stacked Blue Jays team bodes well since they face the team below Toronto in their same division. Other than another rocky Adrian Houser start, the Brewers hovered between competent and masterful on both sides of the plate and enjoyed a day off before the brief series in Florida is set to begin. Facing the Rays for the first time since 2017 is only one of many hard-to-predict characteristics of a series marked by returns from injuries and recently recalled top prospects. The enigmatic Rays don’t quite have the luster of years past. For a team who has spent recent years solidifying themselves as a thorn in the side for AL East leviathans in Boston and New York, being merely eight games above .500 is good for second to last place entering play on June 28th. But the mystique still can’t be wholly ignored. While fourth place doesn’t look like much, they do still stand 70.2% chance of making the new expanded playoffs compared to Milwaukee’s 51.7%. Does the Crew have what it takes to improve their odds in this brief series? Let’s look at the match-ups. Tuesday June 28th Brandon Woodruff (5-3 4.74 ERA) TBD As of 7:00 on Monday, the Rays had yet to announce their starter, but Brewers fans will be heartened to see the likes of Brandon Woodruff returning to the mound. For what it’s worth, Woodruff was sharp in his rehab start against Quad Cities River Bandits, retiring the first 12 batters in a row. Brewers fans will be hoping this portends further dominance in Tampa Bay. Wednesday June 29th Eric Lauer (6-3 3.89 ERA) Shane Baz (0-1 4.51 ERA) The Wednesday match-up feels consequential. The focus on Eric Lauer has diminished a little bit after a few rough starts, but he’s been serviceable for the Crew to this point and is a reliable arm that can keep them in the game. The weakest spot for Lauer has been the longball with a frightening 1.9 HR/9, but the Rays are tied with the Reds for the fewest home runs in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Shane Baz is an exciting young arm. I included a brief description for him below, but the concise version of it is that he’s got a blistering fastball and has figured out the release point well. He can live on the paint and free swinging dominate hitters. Players To Watch Shane Baz: A viral quote in the world of baseball geekdom is from Sam Miller, who famously tweeted "LOVE this trade for the Rays. Who'd they give up? And who'd they get?" In this case, Baz was one of many high value grabs in the now famously one-sided trade that sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to the Pirates. Before the start of the season he was ranked as the eighth overall prospect in baseball, building that prestige on the back of an elite fastball and profile that looks nearly identical to another former Pirate, Gerrit Cole . Brandon Woodruff: It’s been an uncharacteristically unremarkable campaign for Woody. Between a sprained ankle in May and the recent diagnosis of Raynaud’s syndrome, fans hope to be able to point the finger at temporary or treatable ailments as the reason the two time All-Star looks flat compared to the pitcher who placed fifth in Cy Young voting just last year. Hoby Milner : Because why not? The lanky lefty is having one of those charismatic dream seasons where at 31 he’s seemed to have found something that works. In what is already maybe the most fun bullpen in the league, Milner serves as a delightfully dominant cherry on top. Predictions Facing the Rays is already a difficult proposition, but doing so on their turf with so many question marks, and against a team that is 10-1 in interleague play so far this season just doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. If the Crew can muster a split, they should be happy. View full article

Fresh off a refreshing split against the competent Cardinals, how can the Crew fare against their neighbors to the North and one league over? After four games with the red birds it’s time for three with some blue ones. It's an interleague match-up, the mystique of which carries a little less oomph with the addition of universal DH and a far more engrained interplay of interleague play in general, but fun nonetheless. The Toronto Blue Jays were picked by a good number of reputable and thoughtful baseball minds to handily dominate their division, but illustrating well the delightful chaos of baseball and the notion to never underestimate the Bronx Bombers, the Yankees have proven too monstrous a force for the Blue Jays to hold first place. Still, at 38-29, the more than competent Blue Jays will be bringing a formidable style of play to AmFam Field. Let’s check out the match-ups. Friday June 24th Alek Manoah (8-2 2.00 ERA) Adrian Houser (4-7 4.24 ERA) From the fan standpoint it’s hard to feel optimistic about the Brewers chances in this one. Houser’s season started strong but has faded so aggressively since the end of May that he’s effectively a negative WAR player to this point. Meanwhile Alek Manoah is putting in a Cy Young worthy performance. I make the case for keeping an eye on him below. Saturday June 25th Yusei Kikuchi (2-3 4.94 ERA) Corbin Burnes (5-4 2.31 ERA) After a mediocre start to his career, Yusei Kikuchi levied a 2021 All-Star appearance in to a three-year contract with the Blue Jays. To this point it looks like the Japanese born lefty has regressed back to said mediocrity, with an arc and stat line not dissimilar to Adrian Houser in the first match-up. Harking once more to the previous match-up, Corbin Burnes' status as an ace remains ironclad as he continues to dominate and is unquestionably the Brewers best pitcher in a strong rotation. Sunday June 26th Jose Berrios (5-3 5.11 ERA) Undecided It’s a little hard to prognosticate on a game where the match-up still hasn’t been declared yet, but for better or worse the reason for it’s undeclared status is precipitated on the impending return of All-Star righty Brandon Woodruff. Regardless of who’s on the mound, the truth remains that José Berríos has been mysteriously ineffective after being traded from the Twins to Blue Jays last July. Statistically and metrically, he’s been woefully unimpressive, even with sparks where he demonstrates his previous brilliance. In his last start he was shelled for three home runs by the equally baffling White Sox, but struck out 13 in a start against his former team in an early June drubbing of the Twins. The Brewers should assume the excellent Berrios of yore comes out to play, of course, but pragmatically speaking there’s not a lot to be optimistic about for this Jays arm. As evidenced here, despite the fact that he does get some swing and miss and maintains a low walk rate, everything else orbiting Berrios' repertoire is struggling mightily. Players To Watch Alek Manoah: If you can separate yourself from your fandom and marvel at greatness, even at your favorite team’s expense, Alek Manoah is someone to watch. The 6’ 6" righty’s imposing presence has a resume to match, with two or fewer earned runs in 26 of his 33 career starts. If the Brewers weak spot is offense, they’ll need to strategize with Manoah, or they’ll be feasted upon. Alejandro Kirk: Remember for a few sweet years when Jonathan Lucroy was considered the most underrated player in baseball? The quiet reception he got despite his excellence reminds me a lot of Alejandro Kirk. In his sophomore year, the Jays 23-year-old catcher is absolutely crushing the ball right now. .304/.395/.473 isn’t quite the offensive output you normally expect out of a catcher, but thanks to a K rate of 10.2% (firmly putting him in the top 2% of the league) he’s taking every opportunity at the plate, and feasting in the process. Christian Yelich: It’s getting tiresome waiting for Christian Yelich to even resemble a shade of his former self, and while the days of MVP viability feel more conclusively bygone than they did in the years immediately following his peak, the peripherals still beckon patience. He’s hitting the ball hard, and with regularity. Is Yelich less threatening strictly as a result of bad luck? No, but it’s fair to say that bad luck has something to do with how limp his offense appears. Predictions The Blue Jays are a solid team top-to-bottom, but the Crew is lucking out by hitting on a weaker part of their rotation. The Crew seems more confident than they did at the beginning of June, so I’ll give them the slight edge to take the series 2-1. View full article

I feel like Ian Happ is quietly the best player in this whole list. No way he gets traded in this division though.

It's late June and there is a tie at the top of the division. Each game between these two teams is crucial and now, we have four in a row at home. Let's get to it. The bounceback series against the Cincinnati Reds has to be a tremendous relief for a Brewers team, but they didn’t emerge from the weekend unscathed. A player as emblematic as any as to what it means to be Brewer, the venerable Lorenzo Cain, was designated for assignment. The move, while not unwarranted, still felt a little jarring to the Milwaukee faithful who all appreciated Cain for what has been an impressive career. Meanwhile the Cardinals were beaten by a beloved former member of their own. Michael Wacha bested Adam Wainwright in a battle of Cardinal aces past and present in the opening game of their series versus the Boston Red Sox. That game was followed with vengeance in a routing of Boston in front of their home crowd. Vengeance didn’t last though, and the Cardinals fell 6-4 on Sunday. What does a series loss against Boston say for Milwaukee, fresh off sweeping the Reds, which culminated in a tie at the top of the NL Central? Anything that could be said will be said on the field. Let’s get to the match-ups. Monday June 20th Miles Mikolas (5-4 2.62 ERA) Corbin Burnes (4-4 2.52 ERA) Miles Mikolas was one of two pitchers in the last week to make it into the ninth inning with a no hitter. Notably and impressively for Mikolas, it was down to the last strike before Pirates outfield Cal Mitchell laced a ball into center field and ended the bid. Granted it was against a fairly ineffectual Pirates offense, but this performance was reflective of what has been an exceptionally strong campaign by Mikolas so far. Corbin Burnes continues to serve as the bonafide ace of a young and impressive rotation. After a couple of rocky starts to begin June he gave up two runs in six innings against a leviathan Mets team. Corbin Burnes' win also gave manager Craig Counsell his record breaking 564th win, making him the winningest manager in Milwaukee’s history. Tuesday June 21st Jack Flaherty (0-0 6.00 ERA) Aaron Ashby (1-5 4.25 ERA) This should be an interesting game to watch. Facing Flaherty over the last half a decade was an imposing proposition, but in his return from the 60 day IL list he was limited to sixty pitches against the Pirates, and it didn’t exactly go well. Two earned runs over three innings, three hits, two walks and three K’s. What should be authoritatively gleaned from this? Literally nothing, especially given Jack Flaherty’s sparkling career to this point. It does beg the question as to which Flaherty hits the mound on Tuesday, though. It seems possible that the league may have figured Aaron Ashby out. Either that or the forearm tightness that took him out of the game after 4 ⅓ innings against the Mets last Thursday was hampering his performance aggressively enough to affect his performance. Either way, Ashby’s been roughed up lately, with an ERA jumping from 2.70 two weeks ago, to 4.25 now. Wednesday June 22nd Adam Wainwright (5-5 3.06 ERA) Eric Lauer (6-2 3.57 ERA) At the age of 40, Adam Wainwright will almost definitely surpass 300 career innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers in this start. It should be said that Adam Wainwright isn’t putting up a solid year for a 40-year-old pitcher, he’s putting up a stellar year for any pitcher of any year. It’s not fair to say that he’s in the running for the Cy Young (which stunningly has eluded him to this point in his career) but that is more thanks to freakishly good pitching in the National League this year. Adam Wainwright has always been a thorn in Milwaukee’s side, pitching to a 2.73 in 296 IP. It’s hard to imagine that he plans on making things easy on the Crew now that they are in the thick of a contentious race to the top of the NL Central. Eric Lauer hasn’t exactly dazzled in June, and despite a recent W over the Reds (a spurious achievement unto itself) where he surrendered three home runs, it doesn’t seem that Lauer is back to his peak condition. Making matters more optimistic for a pitcher who only weeks ago compelled conversations of ace hood is his 4.75 FIP and gnarly 2.9 BB9. If Lauer wants to get past the dreaded and perennially crafty Cardinals, he’ll need to return to his old form. Thursday June 23rd Dakota Hudson (5-3 3.31 ERA) Jason Alexander (1-0 2.42 ERA) Dakota Hudson defied all of the odds in his most recent start, but that isn’t always a good thing. Dominance at home and against the Reds have both been hallmarks in Hudson’s career, but the 6-0 record turned to 6-1 after giving up six runs in seven innings. It was wildness that bit him. Despite giving up only two walks, he threw only 56 of his 95 pitches for strikes, uncharacteristic for the 27-year-old. The first three innings were solid for Jason Alexander this Saturday against the Reds, but after seeing him once through the rotation it seems whatever was mystifying Reds batters dissipated. All told the composition of what would ultimately be his first win was built on eight hits, two earned runs, one walk and two K’s. Players to Watch Tommy Edman: Other than in brief spurts I’ve heard almost no one talk about this guy, but if you’re looking for a reason as to why the Cardinals are so formidable this year it might be worth examining the player who leads the entire National League in WAR. Albert Pujols: Don’t be fooled by the highlight reel. His numbers are wretched this year, so sit back and breathe in the last few months of a baseball titan and take comfort in the fact that he can’t hurt you anymore. Hunter Renfroe: I don’t know if Renfroe has endeared himself to the Milwaukee faithful as much as I’d have expected given his numbers and consistency. The player who we almost inexplicably acquired in exchange for a historically bad Jackie Bradley Jr. has setuple his trade-mates WAR this year. He also homered in each game against the Reds in the last series. Predictions The Cardinals are fierce and that rotation is nasty. I know the Brewers hit well against the Reds, but the Reds are not the Cardinals. My heart wants the Brewers to win this series, but my brain has me on guard. I’ll say, with the utmost uncertainty, that the Brewers fight hard and take the series 2-1. View full article

Can the Brewers find their footing against Christian Yelich's biggest punching bag? Here's hoping! After a historically dismal start, the Reds have quietly put up a competent campaign that has seen them move from worst team in baseball to merely the worst team in the National League. The Reds were transparent in their sell-off, and any competitive asset remaining on their team is only by virtue of legacy (Joey Votto), injury (Luis Castillo) or… utter mystery (Mike Moustakas). More likely Moose’s continued presence in Cincy is on account of hoping his trade value develop into something more substantive than where it presently stands. Either way, they knew they were going to be bad and bad they have been. What undergirds all of their badness are flickers of hope in some promising youngsters. Chief among them has been the prodigious Hunter Greene , who’s relatively slow start recently veered into an NL Player Of The Week performance. In twelve innings in two starts, Greene put up an astonishing 0.75 ERA and 0.42 WHIP while striking out 15 batters. This all against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, neither of whom are slouches at the plate. Friday June 17th Eric Lauer (5-2 3.36 ERA) Hunter Greene (3-7 5.10 ERA) This match-up will depend on who shows up. If it’s Lauer and Greene of April, the Brewers have it in the bag. If the Lauer of the last two starts shows up against the Greene of his previous two, the Brewers are doomed. My guess is that the truth about who these pitchers are is somewhere in the middle and this will be a great duel. Saturday June 18th Jason Alexander (0-0 2.16 ERA) Graham Ashcraft (3-0 2.22 ERA) Strictly from a spectators standpoint, this is the match up I’m most excited for. Two young arms who’ve shown up in a big way for two teams with opposite stakes. Jason Alexander is merely trying to keep a wounded rotation afloat to stay competitive in a situation where the Brewers are suddenly looking up and seeing red birds. Sunday June 19th Adrian Houser (3-7 4.21 ERA) Mike Minor (1-2 7.36 ERA) This is a crucial shot for Houser to rebound after fading in late May into what has been a dismal June. Luckily Cincinnati’s poor offense and a struggling Mike Minor are likely to provide a soft landing spot for Houser to get his feet back on the ground. Players to watch Hunter Greene: The kid is electric. If his previous two starts are more indicative of his skills than the preceding starts (and peripherals suggest that they are) the Brewers and their hibernating offense might as well pack it in. Brandon Drury: Never thought I’d ever recommend anyone pointedly watch Drury or his career 0.3 WAR, but seven years in the majors, the veteran utility bat is putting up quite a decent little year for himself. This is especially relevant as we get nearer and nearer to the trade season and players injure or exhaust themselves out of the batting order. A team defined by austerity like Milwaukee may very well snag a player like Drury when the time comes. Graham Ashcraft: Scheduled to start the second game of the season, this young righty has quietly become a reasonable contender for a RoY pick. I’m as surprised as you are, but what has he done 28.1 innings? Put up a 1.7 WAR while going 3-0 with 15 K’s. Considering Ashcraft comes immediately after Greene, the team that looked like a cakewalk a month ago is suddenly a legitimate threat. Christian Yelich : If there's a team that can jump start the struggling former MVP's bat it's Cincinnati, against whom he seemingly can't stop hitting for the cycle. Predictions Dare I say anything? I think the Crew takes the series two-to-one. The offense is a big question mark in this series, but the Reds aren’t exactly powerhouses in that department either, and the Brewers are unquestionably the better team. View full article

The Brewers are famous for run prevention, but how deep is the pool between that reality and them fading in to non-competition? Another low cost arm wouldn't hurt, so why not try and grab on to the talents of a former rival? The trade deadline being weeks away feels like a moot point when you have someone as savvy as David Stearns at the helm of your team. By this time last year Willy Adames was nearly a month into his tenure as a Brewer, and with more teams pushing into meaningful contention with an expanded playoffs, it feels more urgent than ever for the Brewers, or any team for that matter, to build to their actualization as quickly as possible. A few splashy exceptions aside, Milwaukee’s modus operandi in trades so far is to avoid the sexy move and go for players they believe they can tweak into superstars once they are locked into Brewers uniforms. This year’s version of Jose Quintana feels just like that kind of player. The Bucs latest reclamation project has ranged from serviceable to excellent, but what reflects most optimistically on Quintana’s trajectory is the contrast between the last two years and what he’s producing now. Last year the veteran left-hander was pushing a 5.00 ER and the year prior he split a 6.43 ERA between two teams. At 33 years old, it seemed not unlikely that the former all-star was washed. The small-budget Bucs have been awarded for their faith and their one-year, $2M contract with a solid veteran presence on the bump. The Brewers are known as a run prevention team, so while pitching may not be the most obvious need for the Crew, the carousel of green arms hopping back and forth from the minors indicates a lack of reliable depth. Quintana’s presence wouldn’t necessitate a spot in the rotation, but it could be if one if a starter goes down. If not, the bullpen looks like it would benefit from another long relief arm, so the onus doesn’t fall exclusively to Suter. Alternatively Quintana’s effective season is largely thanks to him enjoying the lowest exit velocity off of opposing bats of his career, and his incredible chase rate. This makes him a stellar candidate to bring out in a high leverage situation mid-game to keep things from going out of control. Lastly, it’s worth mentioning that in his many appearances in Milwaukee, Quintana has been absolutely vicious against Milwaukee, where even including his flagging seasons he has been largely dominant. Best case scenario, Quintana could be Drew Pomeranz: a low-cost get for a team famous for developing arms, tweaking mechanics and polishing players into elite level players. Worst case scenario is less favorable, but his cost is still low and signed only through the rest of the season. View full article

“That’s so Mets!” they used to say! Some series of unforced errors, epic collapses and MVP caliber players getting injured a third of the way into the season. Queens would weep and the rest of the baseball world would snicker. Cosmically ordained bad luck and worse handling seemed to follow a team with such aggression that their 2015 World Series appearance has been forgotten entirely. That isn’t the case in 2022. “That’s so Mets!” they used to say! Some series of unforced errors, epic collapses and MVP caliber players getting injured a third of the way into the season. Queens would weep and the rest of the baseball world would snicker. Cosmically ordained bad luck and worse handling seemed to follow a team with such aggression that their 2015 World Series appearance has been forgotten entirely. That isn’t the case in 2022. Meanwhile, the Brewers gave up 19 hits to the Nationals. An indictment by itself, but it’s symptomatic of something worse. Where the Mets can lose super stars for an extended period of time and still be meaningfully competitive, it appears at least possible that the Brewers are more “house of cards” in their structure. The brutal nineteen-game stretch that preceded this dismal June started strong, but the reasonably tired Brewers began to sputter towards its conclusion. Since the beginning of June the Brewers have lost all but one game, and primarily against sub .500 teams. Whether this suggests the inevitable slump that all good teams face or betokens a full scale collapse is yet to be determined; but what it demands is that the Brewers show up and take this series. Anything more would warrant the sounding of alarm bells. And now, the match-ups. Tuesday June 14th Adrian Houser (3-6 3.92 ERA) Chris Bassitt (4-4 4.35 ERA) Adrian Houser hasn’t missed many bats yet. He got roughed up by the Phillies his last game, surrendering five runs on seven hits to a good hitting Philadelphia team. He pitched well against the Padres, but in the start before that, the now NL Central leading Cardinals took him to task in a stinging loss. Heading to Flushing and into the maw of a wood chipper offense like the Mets have built isn’tthe most exciting prospect at the moment. In order to be successful, Houser will have to keep the ball in the park and keep men off base, and with a B/9 of 3.8, a WHIP of 1.40 and a HR/9 of 0.9, it’s evident that he’ll need to approach the Mets with something new in mind. What started as a sparkling beginning of Chris Bassit's Mets tenure has hit a rough skid lately. Covering the last five his starts, Bassitt has been pitching to a 7.62 ERA. He’s also surrendered seven home runs. This would bode well for the Brewers if their offense shows up, but the struggle that seems to have plagued the Brewers since Christian Yelich fouled a ball off of his kneecap in Miami in 2019 feels more and more permanent with every series. Wednesday June 15th Corbin Burnes (3-4 2.48 ERA) David Peterson (3-0 3.00 ERA) Prior to last week’s uncharacteristically mediocre performance against Philadelphia, any loss endured by Burnes was by virtue of bad luck and lack of run support. In what would be an eventual loss to punctuate a sweep by the Phils, Burnes labored through 4.1 innings and a concerning 113 pitches. If this were one of his first starts of the season it would be legitimate to express some more concern about what this might portend, but it feels fair to assume he’s still the Brewers ace and, like all mortals, is liable to experience the occasional fluke. Still, the last start’s high pitch count is a bit of a concern given the tenuous nature of play the Brewers have been languishing in the last couple of weeks. David Peterson’s position on the Mets has been largely at the mercy of the team’s condition. With a strong rotation factored in Peterson and his 3.00 ERA have weaved in and out of starting and relief, with his most recent outing being a win out of the pen against the Angels only Friday. While Peterson hasn’t given up too many runs, it hasn’t been by virtue of keeping runners off the base. The 1.250 WHIP is buoyed by the 4.5 BB/9. The Crew should approach Peterson with patience, let him get himself into trouble and then exploit the Mets subpar bullpen. Thursday June 16th Aaron Ashby (1-5 3.91 ERA) Tylor Megill (4-2 4.50 ERA) While Aaron Ashby’s win-loss record isn’t a fair indicator of his performances thus far, his recent starts have been atrocious. Giving up almost a run per inning in his two June starts, Ashby was beaten first by the Padres in a fairly unremarkable loss, but was rocked by the Nationals to the tune of 13 hits and six runs. Given the quality of the 2022 Nationals and Ashby’s sold pitching thus far it’s hard not to look at this as a fluke, but with a far more formidable team in the Mets up next, it will be a true test of Ashby’s mettle. Fresh from an IL stint, young Mets pitcher Tylor Megill was limited to 64 pitches over three and a third innings against the Angels. Megill appeared competent in his shortened start, as he has much of his sophomore career. The crafty righty might be a tough needle to thread against a struggling offense, particularly in a pitcher friendly park, but one path to a W could be the Brewers exploiting Megill’s tendency for the long ball. -- Predictions: When any team gets swept by the Phillies and lose the next series to the Nationals it’s not easy to feel comfortable about where they are at, so going up against one of the top tier teams in baseball doesn’t feel particularly great right now. My guess is that they scratch out one win against the Mets, but if they can get to their weak spot in the pen early, it could be two. View full article

Bad. Three letters adding up to one word that contains multitudes. The Brewers can have a bad road trip and still be contending for their division. The Pirates can sweep the Dodgers and still be bad. The mystifying White Sox bad where, despite the talent, they can’t seem to even tread water in a bad division. Driving a thousand miles deeper into bad territory and you begin to see the dismal visage of the Washington Nationals. Such an uninspired and ghastly amalgam of mediocrity that even evergreen Nelson Cruz and otherworldly Juan Soto has withered in its midst. Bad. And now, Milwaukee comes to town. The Brewers feel dichotomous right now, either savvy and surgical masters of run prevention or hollow, deflated and lost. The sweep by the Phillies (in a series I incorrectly predicted would go 2-1 to the Brewers) was initiated by a highly uncharacteristic implosion by Josh Hader and was punctuated by a loss by defending Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes. If there is any team that can right the ship for Milwaukee, it should be a team who’s wrangling with Cincinnati for the worst record in the National League. Let’s check out the match ups. Friday June 10th Milwaukee: Aaron Ashby (1-4 3.13 ERA) Washington: Erick Fedde (3-4 4.88 ERA) Approaching virality in Brewers circles was a clip of a disgusting two-seamer Aaron Ashby elevated in one of the strikeouts he managed in his last start against the Padres. I don’t normally succumb to the hype of a young prospect, but 60 strikeouts in 46 innings for a 24-year-old pitcher who seems to be figuring out the majors quickly, paired with the Stearns front office having developed elite pitching at an incomprehensible clip, gives that hype a whole lot of purchase. Erick Fedde feels like a microcosm of the Nationals as a whole. He is there, playing major league baseball, and occasionally he wins but more often, he loses. In fairness to Fedde, he had an ERA of 1.95 in the month of May before requiring 29 pitches to record a drubbing by the Mets in his previous start. Saturday June 11th Milwaukee: Eric Lauer (5-1 2.38 ERA) Washington: Patrick Corbin (2-8 6.71 ERA) While the question of Ashby’s ace-hood may be in the nascent stages of making it’s case, the question of Eric Lauer’s seems to be dissipating with every start with all signs pointing to the affirmative. With a polishing of his mechanics prior to the 2021 start, the quietest acquisition in the fairly splashy trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres and brought him here with Luis Urias, is beginning to solidify himself as the most valuable part of the entire transaction. While the peripherals surrounding Lauer aren’t quite as sparkling as the rudimentary numbers show, a FIP of 3.69 is still an improvement from last year’s 4.04 and a world away from the 6.37 FIP he put up in the chaotic 2020 campaign. Against a flailing Nationals team, I expect this to be a much-watch show of dominance and a palate cleanser for Brewers fans still wincing over the previous couple of weeks of Brewers baseball. Corbin’s nightmarish 2022 is beginning to look, to this point, like a very expensive nightmare for a team that could really use a few solid trade pieces. Sure he was tolerably decent in his last start, but it was against the Reds. The $140MM contract Corbin signed in 2019 is hard to turn one's nose up considering he was excellent and they happened to win the World Series that year, but at present it seems like he’s grafted into the rotation as a grim reminder of acceptance for their flagging investments. Still, flags fly forever. Sunday June 12th Milwaukee: Jason Alexander (0-0 2.25 ERA) Washington: TBD Difficult to prognosticate on a match-up that hasn’t been decided yet, but would it surprise you to learn that Jason Alexander is another emerging story on the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers? Obviously not too much hay can be made out of two starts, but he owns a compelling narrative, plus a grateful salve for a Brewers team that has been wracked with fatigue. If he’s built on the confidence he’s deserved over his previous two strong starts, I expect him to make a statement against the flimsy Nationals. Prediction Good teams beat bad teams. Good teams also go on rough stretches but then recover. It’s this logic that separates the wheat from the chaff. Yes, the exiguous Brewers offense revealed itself once more and it manifested a sweep by the Phillies, but that belies the actual offensive output. A lot of balls were hit hard, there was patience at the plate, there were actual hits. The scoreboard says dismal, but that’s missing the forest for the trees. I’m going to be bold and say that the Brewers sweep the Nationals. View full article

The Brewers record for June thus far is an inauspicious 1-4. With the benefit of a day off, the Crew can take cold comfort in the fact that they are heading home to face perhaps the most disappointing team in baseball so far this year, the Philadelphia Phillies. To this point, Dave Dombrowski’s strategy to buy Philly’s next ring has appeared rudderless, with a team four games under .500 and a historically bad defense. Adding insult to injury is that the two major free agent acquisitions in former Cub Kyle Schwarber and former Red Nick Castellanos have combined for an uninspiring 0.2 WAR this season. With win-now expectations and a losing record entering June, the seat got too hot for bygone manager Joe Girardi, who was replaced by long-time MLB coach Rob Thomson. If the Phillies aren’t going to be sellers come July the time to turn the ship around is now. The Brewers, struggling with attrition and the natural fatigue that comes with almost three consecutive weeks of games played, spent Monday enjoying a much needed day off. Will the Crew emerge refreshed, re-focused and ready to feast on a struggling Philadelphia team, or will the Phils storm into Cream City with a new manager and an even bigger chip on their already gritty shoulders? Let’s break down the match-ups. Tuesday June 7th Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (4-3 4.69 ERA) Milwaukee: Jason Alexander (0-0 2.57 ERA) Of the three forthcoming games this is the most difficult to predict. Ranger Suarez is somehow already in his fifth year in the majors, but only the second where he’s seen real innings. Last year he was ace adjacent, pitching to a ridiculous 1.36 ERA over 106 innings pitched. This wipeout slider that saw him dominant in 2021 hasn’t returned to this point and it’s manifested in a 4.69 ERA (4.45 FIP), realities that don’t pair well with an ungainly defense. On the other hand the Brewers have 29-year-old undrafted rookie Jason Alexander on the mound. Strung together these words may look pejorative, but really they are just a series of adjectives painting an unlikely story for the Brewers right-hander. Alexander looked downright convincing in his major league debut against the Cubs, surrendering two earned runs over seven innings in what was ultimately a loss for the Crew. Wednesday June 8th Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (3-4 3.92 ERA) Milwaukee: Adrian Houser (3-5 3.51 ERA) Two pitchers with fairly similar numbers square off here. Aaron Nola is an interesting character as he’s perennially discussed as this ace-in-waiting, and while he has had a few glimmers of objective dominance, he hasn't meaningfully approached Cy Young contention since 2018. Dominant or not, is he still capable of dicing up a streaky-to-weak offense? Affirmative, and if the Brewers need to focus in on one pitcher in this series, I’d say it’s Nola. The Phillies definitely have their work cut out for them though, with a more than competent pitcher in Adrian Houser pitching for Milwaukee. It’s been a rough stretch circumstantially for Houser. A tough luck loss a few weeks ago was followed by an in-season arbitration loss (a result of the labor dispute), which was followed further by an uncharacteristic loss to the Cardinals, who were previously dominated by Houser. Still, circumstantial issues are exactly that, and with a little run support it seems like a pretty even match-up. Thursday June 9th Philadelphia: Zach Eflin (2-4 3.88 ERA) Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes (3-3 2.50 ERA) An ERA pushing four makes it difficult to call this year a “breakout” for Zach Eflin, but (if for no other reason than that he’s been predictable) it would definitely be fair to say that he’s quietly been a bright spot on a struggling team. In a contract year, Eflin’s sturdy arm has provided a few morale boosting moments, chief among then 12 K’s against the Los Angeles Dodgers. With a comparably punchless offense in the Brewers, Eflin poses a very real threat. Real threat or not, it has to do something to steady the Brewers nerves knowing that opposing Eflin will be reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, who is two months into a campaign that looks every bit as nasty as his 2021 campaign. When Corbin Burnes is throwing there’s very little concise analysis that needs to be done. A victory for him relies on two words: run support. Predictions I think Milwaukee wins the series, two low offense games to one. There are too many narrow variables to feel confident in an outright sweep, and while the Phillies are disappointing they aren’t bad, and the Brewers are still beaten up and not exactly possessing the hottest bats in the league. They key to victory will be barreling balls and challenging the Phillies defense, working counts and getting into the Phillies bullpen. If the Crew can put up a few runs in each game, they are likely to sweep, but that’s a bit of an if. View full article

Every star's visibility starts with a shimmer before the glow, before you feel the heat. In the case of the Milwaukee Brewers 2017 first round draft pick, it took less than a year for the radiance of potential to show itself. The strong numbers in 2018 were rewarded with a promotion, and rewarded the front offices faith by putting up preposterous 1.106 OPS in AAA San Antonio. Milwaukee and the sample size, albeit a short one, and an injured Travis Shaw was enough to force the Brewers hand promote Hiura to the show, where a strong rookie performance would endear him to fans and aid the Crew to a wild card berth. Then the wheels fell off. A microcosm of the planet as a whole, Major League Baseball as an entire entity was suddenly forced mid-Spring training to throw the season into a tenuous state of hibernation as COVID-19 began it's campaign as a worldwide scourge. The state of the game emerged as a bizarre, almost morbid simulacrum of the game as it's known. Minor league baseball simply didn't exist, and all sixty games of the 2020 Major League Baseball season were played in cavernous stadiums, completely devoid of fans and their noise. Echoing the essence of the cardboard cutouts being used ineffectively to substitute for fans in seats, Keston Hiura showed up as a shell of his former self. A hint of power still lived in his bat, mustering thirteen home runs in 246 at-bats, but accompanying the middling power numbers were objectively bad stats on defense and hitting. His BABIP slid from .402 to an ugly .273, and his already problematic whiff rate only climbed hire. What's worse? Those numbers went from ugly to disgusting in 2021, where he was almost a full point negative in the WAR department. The analysis attached to Keston Hiura's narrative can only be projected through the murkiest of lenses. For someone with fewer than a thousand plate appearances to their name, who is somehow only 25, it sure feels like Keston Hiura has been part of the Brewers organization for as long as I can remember. It also seems true that he's a player who is capable of the big, difference making moment, and having authored one walk off in each of his years so far, there's at least some semblance of truth to that. As unsatisfying as it is, the derailing effect of a pandemic to a young player's development and factors that don't exist in any metric (the yips come to mind) seem like logical candidates to have thrown a wrench in the logical arc of Keston Hiura's potential. These factors don't stop fans from being blind to the glimmer of young player who's presence in a big league uniform was once clamored for, nor does it stop some of the more myopic base of so-called Brewers fans from inexplicably calling for the head of the extremely successful manager they've been blessed with. It would seem suggestible though, to lend some circumstantial padding between Keston Hiura and his release from the Milwaukee Brewers. After all, it wasn't all that long ago that the refrain of "Corbin Burnes sucks! Trade him for a bag of bats!" flooded the airwaves, and last I checked, patience paid off on that front. And that OPS? Up to .821 from .557 last year.