Tommy Ciaccio

The Brewers won't have another off day until the 25th of August, and starting that long and brutal stretch is inarguably the most consequential series to date. The season series is tied at 6-6. What direction will those numbers go when the next three games wrap? Let's check it out. Fans in Milwaukee were given reason to exhale as their home team put a convincing end to their grim post-trade deadline skid. The pressure is by no means off of the Brewers who, at present, are out of the division lead, out of the playoff picture and off of any analysts top ten in power rankings. Adding to the anxiety of the moment is that the Brewers take their talents on the road to none other than the home of the red hot St. Louis Cardinals. The season series is 6-6 to this point. Poetically enough, the uneven number of games ahead will tilt who leads the division at the series’ end. Can the Brewers reclaim the top spot in the Central by winning in enemy territory, or will Sunday evening find them buried deeper in the standings and further out of reach of the postseason? Let’s check out the match-ups. Friday August 12th Eric Lauer (8-3 3.59 ERA) Jordan Montgomery (4-3 3.53 ERA) Eric Lauer has been an engaging watch over the previous couple of months. A slow but steady return to early season form has been emerging after a prolonged stretch that saw his home run rate explode. It should be stated that while run prevention has been stemmed, actual base runners haven’t. A strong start that saw him surrendering only one run against the Reds still included a bases loaded jam in the first, and consecutive innings to follow where two men reached. It goes without saying that the Cardinals are a bit more effective at turning base runners into runs, so Lauer will have to play a tighter game to stay on his present arc. Jordan Montgomery was acquired at the trade deadline from the Yankees and immediately faced them in his next start. The start was a microcosm of the lefty’s career. An intimidating and at times brilliant start cut short by injuries. In this case it was merely leg cramps, but injuries have been a part of Montgomery’s story for his entire major league career, not playing a full season from 2017-2020, and it has to be imagined that the new acquisition won’t have the longest leash if he appears to labor on the mound in this start. Saturday August 13th Corbin Burnes (8-5 2.45 ERA) Adam Wainwright (8-8 3.42 ERA) Another battle of the aces! The numbers that matter suggest that Corbin Burnes is still the ace he has been since 2020, but he’s only notched one actual win since July 6th. Ultimately this means nothing in terms of what you can expect to get from Burnes when he’s on the mound. He’s still striking out almost a third of the batters he faces, he still is in the 97th percentile in whiff rate, and his WHIP still resides south of one. Simply put, Burnes is still the player most likely to give the team a W, so long as the offense shows up to put up some run support. This year finds Albert Pujols in the limelight given his imminent departure from the field of play, but Adam Wainwright deserves just as much love in terms of freakish talent and staying power. In fact, unlike Pujols, career-Cardinal Wainwright is still putting up meaningfully competitive numbers every year he touches the mound. Waino’s most recent start wasn’t reflective of his standard excellence, getting touched up by the Yankees for eight hits, six runs and most uncharacteristically, four walks. Sunday August 14th Aaron Ashby (2-10 4.32 ERA) Miles Mikolas (8-3 3.50 ERA) The trajectory of Aaron Ashby has devolved, morphing from concerning to exhausting. A young player can’t be blamed for the early struggles of their career. One only needs to look back to Burnes’ 2019 to see how quickly miserable can become elite. That said, a competitive window can slam shut without proper maintenance, and Ashby has been trending worse by the month for a while now. With a WHIP nearing 1.50 it has to be assumed that Ashby will find his way back to the pen (where he’s been masterful) once Houser returns from injury. Miles Mikolas has been an interesting story for the Cardinals. After a rough start to his career Mikolas righted the ship with a three year stint in Japan. He levied that into a contract and eventual extension with the Cardinals with whom he’s pitched with relative consistency since 2018. The integrity of that consistency was blown to shreds in his most recent start where he gave up a stunning 10 runs in 2.2 innings against the Rockies. It is at once quite difficult to imagine all is right with Mikolas, but it also feels impossible to expect a commensurately horrific start against the Brewers. Players To Watch Montgomery: In a trade that confused many but has so far paid off well for the Cardinals, St. Louis traded defensive wunderkind Harrison Bader in exchange for the big lefthander Montgomery. Montgomery is slated to open the series and is something to behold on the mound. Aside from his size, his over the top release point combined with the severe tilt he leans into in his delivery makes him a fascinating study in mechanics. Willy Adames: The numbers haven’t been as well-rounded for Adames as they were in his first season as a Brewer, but with a reduction in average has been a surge in power. As shortstops go, only Corey Seager (25) has had more home runs than Adames (22), and Adames been a source of greater run production in the process. Having just walked off the Rays with a single to wrap the two-game sweep on Wednesday it will be fun to see if Adames high-stakes antics can carry through in this consequential series. Pujols: In 2008, Pujols accomplished the insane feat of a 9.2 WAR season as a first baseman and elite-tier player. The previous eight years combined have not seen that level of production and now the gears on The Machine are rusty and ready to retire. If one can separate themselves from the decade of terror Prince Albert wrought upon the Brewers in his first stint with the Cardinals, they might be able to get lost in the childlike joy Pujols is exhibiting in his farewell tour. Predictions Less of a reflection on the Brewers recent struggles and more a plaintive acceptance of the fact that these are away games taking place against a very good Cardinals team, I feel like it’s logical to assume that the Brewers lose this series. In Summation It simply can’t be overstated how crucial this series is for both teams playing, but the Brewers are in a uniquely precarious situation here. Yes, it’s important for the Brewers to play well against the Cardinals in order to stay afloat in the division, but what awaits them immediately after is a series against the monstrous Dodgers. Make no mistake: this week is all hands on deck, white-knuckle, high consequence baseball. View full article

The Brewers enter this brief two-game series out of the playoff pictures, looking up at the Cardinals. Will the urgency baked into this series refocus a team that looks decidedly lost? Bent but not totally broken, the Brewers are in the middle of a rough stretch that harkens back to June. The Brewers are losing, and losing to bad teams, most recently a sweep against the Pirates and losing two of three to a piecemeal Cincinnati team. Now a legitimate threat comes to town in the Rays, who have a 57-50 record in the toughest division in baseball. If there is a saving grace it’s that Tampa Bay is mightily banged up, but considering recent performances against teams in even worse standing, the question has to be asked: does it matter? It’s just a two-game series, but with recent struggles it feels pivotal. Can the Brewers batten down the hatches and right the ship, or are they going to sink further out of the standings and out of postseason viability for good? Let’s check out the match-ups. Tuesday August 9th Brandon Woodruff (9-3 3.49 ERA) Jeffrey Springs (4-3 2.50 ERA) Despite having been a steady hand during trepidatious times, Brandon Woodruff fit the team-wide motif of mediocre last Thursday in Pittsburgh. Three earned runs, a no-decision, three strike outs and, concerningly, just as many walks. When a truly solid pitcher throws a snoozer it’s important not to react, but given the sudden and stark trajectory of things, it will be important for Woodruff to wrench all of the talent he can to dominate a capable Rays lineup. Jeffrey Springs is a typical Rays' asset. This is to say that he has flown under the radar and was grabbed on the waiver wire after being DFA’d by another team (in this case the Red Sox) and developed into a high-caliber performer. Now in his fifth season, Springs is enjoying a career best 2.50 built on a 1.08 WHIP, which is further built on a stunning walk rate of 5%, putting him in the 90th percentile for the entire league. Wednesday August 10th Freddy Peralta (3-2 4.46 ERA) Ryan Yarbrough (0-6 4.89 ERA) As detailed below, the Freddy Peralta we’re bound to get on Wednesday is anyone’s guess. One year separated from an All-Star appearance Peralta is objectionably capable of deceptive, dominant pitching when healthy. Unfortunately the Brewers young righty followed the team into a stumbling, brief start against the lowly Pirates in his previous start, ultimately taking a no decision. With hopefully a longer leash, and not a particularly competitive pitcher countering him, last year’s All-Star can summon some of that power. Rays lefty Ryan Yarbrough is having a bit of a season to forget. He comes equipped with four pitches, a cutter, slider, change and 4-seamer, none of which have been used to spectacular effect. The 4.89 ERA is almost identical to his FIP (4.93) and while the Rays can be grateful for his endurance, his efficacy is never a sure thing. That said, Yarbrough did manage to keep a spunky Orioles lineup to four hits and eight K’s in what would ultimately be a loss in his penultimate start. A performance like that could sink the downtrodden Crew. Players To Watch Keston Hiura : I’m not sure what Hiura has done to Craig Counsell or the front office to keep faith in him so consistently down. The strikeout rate is a truly alarming 43.5%, but considering production struggles have been a season-long malady for the Brewers, it feels like Hiura is disproportionately singled out to be optioned or pulled from games. It will be interesting to see if the script is flipped if the Crew can get to the two lefty starters early enough that Keston and his righty crushing ways get put into a game instead of taken out for once. Peralta: He was not the sharpest in his return from a lengthy IL stint against the Pirates, but that was the whole M.O. for the downtrodden Brewers. This start feels urgent and eminently more important for the trajectory than the previous one, and it will be interesting to see what form the Peralta arsenal takes under such fraught conditions. Randy Arozarena : Last year’s Rookie Of The Year is having a bit of a slide from last year’s production but can still swing a bat. Over the last couple of weeks he’s put up a .317/.379/.467 line, and aims to be a handful if he keeps it up in Milwaukee. Predictions I’m going to reject my bleakest inclination and believe in an uninspiring split series, instead of a devastating two-game two-loss sweep. View full article

A sweep at the hands of the Pirates and another sweep by the Cardinals over the Cubs find the Brewers suddenly in second in their division. Can the Brewers breeze through the Reds to regain their spot at the top, or does the last series portend grim things to come in Milwaukee? The trade of Josh Hader felt abrupt despite him being dangled for the last couple of seasons. After that exchange with the Padres, the now second place Brewers largely stood pat with the team they have, spare the acquisition of a few bullpen arms. The lack of a meaningful offensive acquisition left some scratching their heads, and the team’s perceived deficiencies probably felt exaggerated after a rare Corbin Burnes loss at the hands of a bad Pirates team. Worse still by a blown save and walk-off loss in the second game and, as if scripted, a wild pitch walk off to give the Bucs a sweep over Milwaukee. Losses sting, but the amalgam of bad that immediately followed an inert trade deadline makes the front office’s silence deafening. How can they rebound against the Reds? Let’s check out the match-ups. Friday August 5th Eric Lauer (7-3 3.75) Robert Dugger (0-0 4.50 ERA) Originally scheduled to pitch the day before against the Pirates, the Brewers opted to strategize the return of Freddy Peralta to help nudge the homer-prone Eric Lauer to a home start. A savvy move as Lauer’s splits have shown him to be significantly stronger at home. Robert Dugger is being called up for his first start of the season, having spent most of the time in AAA spare a few long relief appearances. That Dugger is starting at all is merely a product of necessity. A career ERA of 6.97 and the strikeout rate of 18.3% substantiate the negative career WAR of the utilitarian Texas Tech product. Saturday August 6th Aaron Ashby (2-9 4.13 ERA) Nick Lodolo (3-3 4.23 ERA) Aaron Ashby's last two starts have shown an improvement from the slippery slope he’d been on. That they resulted in losses is hardly his fault, particularly the penultimate appearance where two earned runs and nine strikeouts over seven innings were met with no run support. The lanky Nick Lodolo comes to AmFam Field on the heels of back-to-back quality starts, most recently putting up a strong effort against a better-than-expected Orioles lineup. Sunday August 7th Corbin Burnes (8-5 2.49 ERA) Hunter Greene (4-12 5.26 ERA) An established ace squares off against a nascent one. What should be the takeaway from Burnes struggling in his most recent start against the Pirates? I should hope that, aside from the fact that Burnes is a human, that the answer is “absolutely nothing”. Burnes has lost some of the polish on the control front this season, already hitting 9 batters to last years six and with a SO/W of 4.61 to last years astounding 6.88, but he’s earned a long enough leash to be occasionally imperfect without too many corked eyebrows. Hunter Greene ’s season is detailed more specifically below in the “Players too Watch” section, but Greene has been anything from work-in-progress to superhuman. The sky is the limit for the high ceiling 22-year-old, and if he’s on point he’s capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone, including Burnes. Players To Watch Our late inning relief: Matt Bush’s dominating power pitching and Devin Williams mastery weren’t particularly dialed in Pittsburgh and both earned a loss as a result. If there is one team that can serve to re-inspire one’s confidence, it should be Cincinnati. Christian Yelich : Yeli has always been a punishing presence against Cincinnati. Let’s see how his new mechanics fare against the grist to his mill. Joey Votto : I normally wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to watch anyone languishing in a .732 OPS, even an aging legend with a Hall Of Fame pedigree, but there are few players more likable or charismatic than TikTok legend Joey Votto. Even if he isn’t flashing at the plate, there is a good chance that he’ll give you something to watch. Hunter Greene: At the other end of their career we have flamethrowing prodigy Greene. At 22, the Reds righty has given their front office enough confidence to develop him in the bigs, even if there have been struggles with control and home runs in the past. In his most recent start, Greene gave up one hit and no walks on the way to striking out eight Marlins over the course of seven innings. Outings like that are the reason for high hopes surrounding Greene, and while he’ll likely be a torment to the Brewers for seasons to come. Predictions Only so much can be taken from an objectively good team being swept by the likes of the Pirates, but far less predictable things take place in baseball every week. The Brewers are the better team, and the already bad Reds got far worse when they stripped out their few useful parts in the trade deadline. My guess is that the Crew snags two of the three. View full article

Speaking for myself here, but me bringing up his previous success isn't suggesting that he's bound to be consistently ace-like going forward. I'm simply commenting that he's not far enough removed from dominance that it's unreasonable to think he may be able to exhibit some of that again.

Two NL Central teams at opposite ends of their division do battle. With both having undergone their own respective trade deadline-induced makeovers, how will each's novel chemistry fare against one another? A few short hours after the trade deadline expires, an inter-division series against the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates is set to begin. With the Brewers competing for a playoff berth and the Pirates building for the future, both teams are likely going to have different makeup from when they wake up to when the first pitch is thrown. Will the Brew Crew and its potential new assets have what it takes to assuage the efforts of a promising young Pirates team? Let’s look at the match-ups. Tuesday 8/2/22 Corbin Burnes (8-4 2.31 ERA) Bryse Wilson (1-6 6.31 ERA) Corbin Burnes lacked his typical dominance in his last start, surrendering 3 runs over 6 IP to the Twins in what would ultimately be a W for the Brewers, but mediocre by Corbin Burnes is serviceable by most any other pitcher’s standards. Pitching against a non-competitive Pirates team should help him regain standard ferocity on the bump. Bryse Wilson is nearing veteran status in terms of how long he’s stuck in the bigs, but if you’ve never heard of him it’s because he’s produced very little to remark on. His FIP suggests the ERA is a little on the inflated side, but batters have hit the big righty hard all season, making him little more of service than to eat innings. Wednesday 8/3/22 Brandon Woodruff (9-3 3.55 ERA) Zach Thompson (3-8 5.09 ERA) Exploiting their tailspun and injury-addled lineup, Brandon Woodruff fanned nine Red Sox on his way to win in his last start. Woodruff has been exceptional since coming off of the IL and looks to add to his sparkling 2022 resume in this next start. Zach Thompson’s immediate numbers are a bit deceptive. That the ERA is in the low fives has everything to do with his last start, where he surrendered an uncharacteristic seven runs over 5.2 innings to Philadelphia, giving him a mark almost a half a point higher than when his day started. Was he elite before that start? No, but emblematic of his team, he has had flashes of talent. Thursday 8/4/22 Eric Lauer (7-3 3.75 ERA) TBD I already wrote an entire paragraph about why the original Pirates pitcher probably wouldn’t be on the mound for the Pirates to make the scheduled start, and lo and behold as I go to submit this article, Jose Quintana is traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. The good news for the Brewers is that this spares them from facing the most competent arm in the Pirates rotation. Eric Lauer on the other hand has steadied his hand and pitched quite competently as of late. After being plagued by a horrendous plague of long balls, he’s done much better at keeping the ball in the park since the calendar flipped to July. Considering hot weather generally suggests that pitching has to tangle with the wiles of a more vibrant offense, this bodes well for Lauer’s trajectory for the rest of the season. Players To Watch Christian Yelich: Perhaps the most exciting development to emerge in the brief window of time between the All-Star break and the trade deadline is a marked improvement in Christian Yelich’s offense. A toe-tap tweak in his mechanics is being credited for his relative return to form over the past couple of weeks. Freddy Peralta: Yes, yes I know he’s not officially penned into the rotation, but given his return from the 60-Day IL it wouldn’t be surprising to see him swapped out for one of the starters currently scheduled to pitch. My guess is that it would be Lauer, whose road struggles could be avoided if he pitched against the Reds in Milwaukee the following day. Taylor Rogers: Welcome to the Crew! Last year’s all-star closer for the Padres was recently removed as their closer and almost immediately traded to Milwaukee for the elite arm of Josh Hader . This move figures to sting a little for Brewers fans, but if Rogers can return to last year’s level of play he will endear himself to Milwaukee in short order. Oneil Cruz : The towering iconoclast of a shortstop has just been spectacular since being called up by the Bucs in the middle of June. With an imposing height and rocket of an arm, the dazzling defensive prowess of Cruz is simply something to behold. Predictions The Brewers are playing with gumption as of late. A sweep isn’t out of the question, but in the season series so far the record is 9-4 thanks to some hard fought losses to the Bucs. Prior to Quintana’s trade, I figured the Brewers might drop one, but considering the Brewers rotation compared to the unpolished product the Pirates put on the mound, it’s hard to imagine the Brewers not sweeping. View full article

It's counterintuitive to imagine a bad team coming from New England, but alas, the shambolic Red Sox have fallen to last place in their brutal division. Will they even be the team as described in this post, or will their veterans be traded away before this series can begin? It feels unnatural to associate Boston with anything other than winning. Even a Boston team previously associated with a curse, and one who resides in the toughest division in baseball. But as I write this, the Red Sox and their .495 winning percentage are indeed in last place, looking up at a very fun Orioles team and three other teams who are all very much in the running for a playoff berth. Fresh off a sweep of the Twins, the Brewers are looking to buy before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Can they force Boston into seller’s territory, and will the Brewers be taking a couple of re-uniformed Red Sox with them on the team plane out of town? Let’s check out the match-ups. Friday July 29th Brandon Woodruff (8-3 3.73 ERA) Brayan Bello (0-2 10.50 ERA) Brandon Woodruff has maintained a dominant streak since returning from a tandem ankle injury and Raynaud’s syndrome diagnosis. In his most recent start Woody struck out an impressive eight Rockies over six innings, surrendering only one run. Brayan Bello will make the start for the Red Sox, filling in for the injured and ever-mercurial Chris Sale . Bello has been decent for AAA-Worcester, holding a 2.82 ERA over 54.1 IP, but he’s been crushed in the majors. The .471 BABIP suggests the numbers could come down a little over an extended start, but the numbers are so bad that even optimistic peripherals aren’t enough to belie what simply hasn’t been a great start to the young righty’s major league career. Saturday July 30th Eric Lauer (6-3 3.84 ERA) Nick Pivetta (8-7 4.35 ERA) This is the most evenly matched of the three games, in terms of pitcher matchups. The Rockies proved too much for Eric Lauer in his most recent start, where he sputtered to an uninspiring 4.1 inning start that saw him give up four runs, and perhaps more alarmingly, three walks. The season has been unpredictable for Lauer, vacillating from ace-like in some starts to unwatchable in others. He will need to work hard to keep the ball in Fenway if he’s going to compete against the solid righty Nick Pivetta. The tall righty’s numbers may not knock you out of your socks at first glance, but he’s been one of the rotation’s most reliable components so far this year. Furthermore, the crafty four-pitch repertoire makes him a challenge to impatient and feisty lineups, making him a risk to play stopper for the hot-hitting Brewers offense. Sunday July 31st Aaron Ashby (2-8 4.38 ERA) Josh Winckowski (3-5 5.18 ERA) Earlier this week, the Brewers put forth a vote of confidence for the young Aaron Ashby in the form of a five -ear, $20.5MM extension. The numbers haven’t exactly dazzled for Ashby to this point (though his last start was impressive, giving up 2 runs over 7 IP), but they also aren’t unexpected for a rookie arm. It will be interesting to see if Ashby remains in the rotation after the trade deadline or if a trade requisitions him temporarily to the pen. It’s hard to tell if Josh Winckowski would even be in Boston if it weren’t for a bevy of calamities that have stricken the Red Sox rotation. Regardless, the rookie campaign has been sub-par for the Red Sox righty. The 5.18 ERA isn’t good and the 4.92 FIP doesn’t suggest anything immediately better is on the horizon. Like Ashby, Winckowski is a promising product, but the results haven’t come to fruition just yet. Players To Watch J.D. Martinez : Somehow despite the accolades, the playoff appearances, the paycheck and the revitalized career Martinez still feels overlooked and underrated. After an unremarkable start to his career, he was DFA’d by the Astros. Martinez was picked up by Detroit where under the tutelage of Miguel Cabrera , he promptly began crushing the ball. Since then he’s been a consistent threat at the plate, and with his contract wrapping up, he looks like a good value rental for any team looking for some pop at the plate. Rafael Devers : The expanded playoffs have created a bloated and competitive demand in the trade market. Transitively, it’s hard to imagine a team as reliant on their prospects as the Brewers tend to be to sell it all for a player like Devers, but it must mouthwatering for any team to imagine his talents on their team. With the Red Sox suddenly more conclusively in the seller’s spot, Devers and his .981 OPS likely sit right behind Juan Soto as the most desirable asset possibly on the market. It also wouldn’t be stunning to see Boston extend him. Trevor Story : It seemed like the Brewers were suitors for the mishandled former Rockies shortstop when he hit free agency this past season. Brewers fans were breathing a sigh of relief when Story put up a historically bad month and a half to start 2022. Then, on one Thursday in late May, he went 4-4. Three of those hits were home runs, he collected seven RBI’s and even managed to steal a base. It hasn’t been as torrid as that for Story, but he’s re-affirmed Boston’s reasons for signing him and is still a phenomenal athlete who’s always worth keeping an eye on. Predictions This is a tricky one. Coming off of a sweep it’s easy to say that the Brewers have momentum on their hands, but the pressure is definitely on for Milwaukee to solidify themselves as NL Central favorites before the trade deadline passes. High pressure situations against bad teams always feel like a formula for a frustrating loss, so I think the Brewers take two of three, though logically they should sweep. View full article

Fresh off the All-Star break the Brewers face the ever-confusing/confused Rockies for a four game series at home. The Brewers return home from the All-Star break to host the ever-confusing Colorado Rockies. The trade deadline is nearing and despite the fact that they are embedded firmly toward the bottom of a brutally difficult division, they have vocalized that their plan is to stand pat. As such, a decidedly and deservedly mediocre baseball product is set to take the field against the Crew to initiate the unofficial second half of the 2022 season. Let’s check out the match-ups. Friday July 22nd Antonio Senzatela (3-5 4.95 ERA) Corbin Burnes (7-4 2.14 ERA) The Brewers have an auspicious enough start to this city. The ace who’s authoring yet another Cy Young worthy season is going up against a weak offense. The opposing arm is Antonio Senzatela, a roleplaying arm having a season exemplary of the Rockies as a whole. Senzatela is returning from the 15-day IL thanks to a shoulder ailment. Making things look even worse for the Rockies is Senzatela’s 6.86 ERA on the road, good enough for zero wins. Putting matters frankly, the Brewers should feast in this game. Saturday July 23rd Jose Urena (1-1 2.05 ERA) Brandon Woodruff (7-3 3.93 ERA) There is some mystique in this game. Normally when you hear the words “former Brewer” you recall fond memories from some player who left in free agency or was traded season’s back, but Jose Urena’s tenure in Milwaukee began in March and ended in late May. Since then he’s been putting up some vengeful excellence for the Rockies. Three runs in 18.2 IP for a 1.47 ERA make his absence a little uncomfortable, and his presence on the opposing mound even more so. Sunday July 24th TBD Eric Lauer (6-3 3.64 ERA) The Rockies have yet to announce their starter, but Eric Lauer has been a compelling arm over his last several starts. The long ball that has haunted Lauer all season did make an appearance in his last game, but it was a solo shot off the ball of Darin Ruf , proving as the only consequential offense that could be mustered off the crafty southpaw over seven innings. Monday July 25th TBD Aaron Ashby (2-7 4.57 ERA) With an ERA creeping toward five, it’s hard to imagine Aaron Ashby will have a particularly long leash in the Brewers rotation. The potential is there, the nascent hints of truly nasty stuff is there, but the results just aren’t. The Rockies subpar offense should give Ashby fertile ground for a confidence boost, but with the trade deadline and Freddy Peralta’s return looming, it wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitching out of the pen after this start. Players To Watch Daniel Bard: More than just a charming comeback story, Bard returned from a seven year hiatus to return as a 35-year-old suddenly capable of solid numbers. After a shaky 2021, Bard is back and looking legitimately elite. It goes without saying that a 2.02 ERA is impressive regardless of circumstances, but that kind of production from a 37-year-old pitching Colorado’s thin air is jaw-dropping. C.J. Cron: The Rockies journeyman first baseman is in his eighth season and is making a career year out of it. Often, bad teams are forced to throw out their best reliever or some categorically undeserving position player to represent their team, but the Rockies actually have legitimate talent in Cron. 21 home runs to this point in the season put him just nine short of his career high, and July isn’t over yet. Let’s see if the Rockies defy their standard course of action and trade the 32-year-old now while he’s at peak value or retain his talent through his contract, which includes next season. Woodruff: Having been sharp since a return from the IL, I don’t think it’s any stretch to say that if Woody can maintain his trajectory in this next start that it’s possible that he goes toe-to-toe with Burnes for best Brewers pitcher for the rest of the year. If the extended rest from the All-Star break galvanizes an even stronger version of Woodruff, he should absolutely dominate. Predictions The Rockies front office paid another team to take Nolan Arenado off of their hands and then signed Kris Bryant. They retained Trevor Story only to let him walk in free agency. Despite the confounding handling of this caliber of talent, the Rockies are merely mediocre and not a true bottom-of-the-barrel team. The seven games below .500 belie the talent to an extent. Cron has been an imposing offensive force and big free agent signing and former MVP Bryant is looking more comfortable at the plate, batting .356 since returning from the IL in late June. Still, mediocre isn’t good, and I think the Brewers win the series 3-1. View full article

The Brewers are clinging to a slim division lead and the Giants are trying to keep from becoming sellers as July turns to August. This four-game series has the ingredients for some potentially pivotal mid-season theatrics. It was around this time last year when cognitive dissonance began to leave baseball consciousness and people became willing to accept that, yes, the San Francisco Giants were legitimately good. It wasn’t until the last game of the season was finished that anyone could have predicted that they were 107-wins good, better-than-the-Dodgers good. The magic they captured last season hasn’t exactly replicated itself in 2022, and at present, being only two games over .500 has them hovering in the uncomfortable chasm between being buyers or sellers. What will the upcoming four-game series against the unpredictable Brewers do to put them more solidly in one of those categories? Let’s check out the match-ups. Thursday July 14th Corbin Burnes (7-4 2.20 ERA) Carlos Rodon (8-5 2.70 ERA) If there is one game to watch in this series, it’s this one. Two bonafide aces locking horns. At this point associating Corbin Burnes with excellence is needlessly redundant. A sub-three FIP is good enough to keep any team in any game, even one where the Brewers have to contend with the likes of Carlos Rodon. Speaking of Rodon, his path to San Francisco was forged when was non-tendered and re-signed by the White Sox last year and levied coming in fifth place in Cy Young voting into a two year $44M contract with the Giants. So far Rodon is doing everything in his power to make that contract look like a steal, and on the back of 2.70 ERA over exactly 100 IP it’s easy to make the case that he has. Friday July 15th Brandon Woodruff (7-3 4.01 ERA) Alex Wood (6-7 4.43 ERA) While the Giants sport the AL’s fifth place Cy Young pitcher in their rotation, the Brewers have the same for the NL in theirs. While you meditate on what type of payday Brandon Woodruff may be headed for, it’s worth looking at what he’s done with this season, particularly since returning from the IL. In his last start he gave up six hits in as many innings but no runs, and impressively 8 K’s. Alex Wood has been serviceable enough in his second year in a Giants uniform, with an ERA pretty much exactly at league average. With FIP at 3.26 it’s evident that Wood isn’t doing as good of a job of fooling pitchers as his history would suggest. Control has been a strong point for Wood, giving up a solid 2.2 bb/9, but his diminished velocity is allowing for a lot of pop off his bat. If the Brewers can exhibit patience, they can probably work Wood for a short outing and let Woodruff and the pen take care of the rest. Saturday July 16th Eric Lauer (6-3 3.83 ERA) Alex Cobb (3-4 4.57 ERA) If you squint hard enough you can make the case Eric Lauer is showing hints of his early season form. Despite having difficulty keeping runners off base, Lauer staved off the longball that’s been haunting him this season and struck out seven in a no-decision. Additionally, In the start prior, he struck out nine Cubs. The Giants are a better hitting team and will give better insight into where Lauer is truly at. Alex Cobb’s season started optimistically but has withered as the season has stretched on, despite occasional flashes of brilliance. Similar to his rotation-mate Wood, Cobb’s FIP is nearly a full point below the ERA, signifying that he’s simply just giving up a lot of hits. Cobb can’t be blamed for pitching for a team that is 26th in the rankings for errors committed, but the formula doesn’t portend particularly good things for Cobb’s pitching style. Sunday July 17th Jason Alexander (2-1 4.73 ERA) Logan Webb (8-3 2.82 ERA) The mystique of Jason Alexander has dissipated after a decent start. In his last start, Alexander worked for four innings, gave up two runs on three hits and a walk. This slog of a start actually belie his peripherals optimistically, which would suggest far worse numbers if extrapolated out to a standard start. This isn’t the type of thing anyone wishes on a player who has worked hard enough to get to the majors, but the numbers simply aren’t sustainable; particularly for a team that is in a tight playoff race. Joining Rodon in the egregious All-Star snub department is young righty Logan Webb. Snubs seem to be an ongoing part of Webb’s story. He netted zero Cy Young votes last year, despite the fact that his breakout was a major reason for the Giants success. Where Webb finds his success is in his craftiness. Without the kind of velocity he can just blow by hitters, he expertly moves the ball around the strike zone keeping batters guessing. The FIP on Webb is 3.01, corroborating how genuinely excellent he is. Players To Watch Webb - For all the reasons I mentioned above, but more specifically because (hot take alert) I think watching Webb is watching a multiple Cy Young award winner in his nascent stage. He’s already excellent, and he’s young enough that he has the chance to get significantly better. He presently leads the team in WAR with Rodon a tick behind. After that it’s a steep drop. Brandon Crawford - Not for his game play, which is a world away from what it was just last season. Watch Crawford because you have the chance to take in the slick fielding skills of the last vestiges of one of the most fun dynasties in sports in my entire lifetime. Posey, Lincecum, Cain and Pence are all enjoying retirement, but Crawford is still worth a sentimental watch. Josh Hader - It’s hard to imagine the surgical Hader in another uniform, but it’s almost harder to imagine a smaller market team investing a huge amount of money in a closer when they are already anchored by a brutal Christian Yelich contract and more expense forthcoming with Woody and Burnes going deeper into arbitration. Is it possible that Hader’s time in Cream City is coming to an end? It’s actually a possibility. Predictions This is a difficult series to predict in a way, namely because despite the disparate records, these two teams feel fairly evenly matched. The Brewers enjoy the luxury of one of the weakest divisions in baseball, and sometimes feel outmatched even against objectively mediocre teams. As unsatisfying as it is I suppose the safest bet is a split. View full article

The last time the Pirates and Brewers squared off they split a four game series. With the two teams at opposite ends of the division, the Crew will look to put on a stronger show of force this time around. The rollercoaster continues for Milwaukee who seem to consistently develop momentum going into series with mediocre or bad teams only to see them as lost or split campaigns. That frustrating reality has been the case for the previous two series: they split against the Pirates and the Cubs managed to win two of three. Leapfrogging the Cubs series, Milwaukee once more faces the all-too-familiar Bucs in a three game home series that is sandwiched by days off. Can the Crew seize on the opportunity to feast on a statistically lesser team, or is their time atop the NL Central in peril? Let’s check out the match-ups. Friday July 8th JT Brubaker (2-7 4.28 ERA) Aaron Ashby (1-6 4.60 ERA) Brubaker was the victor over the Brewers in his last start, but it was more of a product of Brewers mediocrity than Pirates excellence. Giving up four runs in six innings should ostensibly be something the run-preventing Brewers can turn into a win, but alas the plucky Pirates got to Brent Suter and snagged the W. Ashby has been a frustrating watch as of late. As if it were written, his hype picked up just in time for the implosion to begin. His ability to pitch late into a game has diminished, collecting 12.2 innings while surrendering 14 runs over that time. The still promising young pitcher is clearly not a DFA candidate, but it’s inarguable that those numbers are not sustainable for a rotation in pursuit of the postseason. Saturday July 9th Zach Thompson (3-6 4.42 ERA) Brandon Woodruff (7-3 3.95 ERA) Zach Thompson is merely a service arm for the Pirates. At 29 years old it seems unlikely that there is some measure of transcendence he is likely to achieve other than being a middling starter in the majors, which is still a freakish measure of talent by general human standards. Still, Thompson has been sharp enough as of late, not going deep into games but not surrendering a ton of runs either. There have been few things more relieving for fans of Brewers baseball than to see Brandon Woodruff returning from the IL and pitching like the ace he’d established himself to be. It’s a small but dominant window, and the Pirates are as good a team as any to see it continue. Sunday July 10th Jose Quintana (2-4 3.33 ERA) Eric Lauer (3.84 ERA) On a one-year $2M contract, the 33-year-old Quintana was quite possibly the best value signing of the offseason. In his most recent start the veteran lefty pitched five solid innings against the behemoth Yankees. What was already a strong trade stock became all the richer, and it feels quite possible that he may not even be in a Pirates uniform come Sunday. Lauer returned to form in his last start against the Cubs, fanning nine and giving up only one run. That run was, fittingly, a home run for the 1.8/9 HR having Lauer, who enjoyed a tempering of some alarming trends in his performance as of late. Players To Watch Jack Suwinski : The numbers aren’t eye-popping but considering that the production we’re talking about is coming from a 23-year-old rookie, it’s worth keeping an eye on a promising bat from an upstart division rival. The highlight of his young career is capping a three-home-run game with a walk off in a very Pirates-y 4-3 victory over the Giants back in June. Bryan Reynolds : One of the better players in Pittsburgh. With the Pirates creeping up on a decade without postseason relevance it will be interesting to see if their controllable but increasingly expensive players get traded at their peak value, or extended in hopes of future glory. Aaron Ashby: The decline in Ashby’s ability to stay in games has been steep enough that I feel like each of his next few starts are make-or-break for how long he stays in the rotation. If he can’t handle the likes of the Pittsburgh Pirates, it may be very difficult to justify his position as a starter for the remainder of the season. Predictions I haven’t exactly been Nostradamus with my predictions so far because the Brewers haven’t exactly been predictable. Operating on logic and the Brewers rotation, I’ll say the series goes 2-1 in favor of Milwaukee. View full article

I'm appreciating seeing the perspectives here and learning from them. I suppose always be happy to know you don't know enough and improve from there. Admittedly I was unaware of Bell's precipitous decline in 2019. It's an anecdotal piece of evidence but it should be considered if you're going to move a young bat with value. Also admittedly I wanted to post something provocative and be forced to defend my point a little but, but I'm starting to come around to the doubting side of my unorthodox proposition.

I'm appreciating seeing the perspectives here and learning from them. I suppose always be happy to know you don't know enough and improve from there. Admittedly I was unaware of Bell's precipitous decline in 2019. It's an anecdotal piece of evidence but it should be considered if you're going to move a young bat with value. Also admittedly I wanted to post something provocative and be forced to defend my point a little but, but I'm starting to come around to the doubting side of my unorthodox proposition.

I've brought this idea up a few times to a few different people and it seems to evoke the same response every time, even with me conceding that it might feel like a solution without a problem. This trade doesn't address the Brewers most glaring issue, but it also isn't the only trade the Brewers are allowed to make. His defense would be missed but the idea that he has something remarkable to contribute offensively at this point in his career is just not accurate. Jace Peterson, Yelich, Renfroe, Adames and increasingly Caratini, McCutchen and Urias are all bats that are proving relevant in the lineup. Tellez has good power and some of highest exit velocity in the league, but he also strikes out at a crazy rate and doesn't walk a lot. Getting on base is crucial. If it wasn't, they would have extended Chris Carter after the 2016 season when he led the league in HRs. I think the crew could acquire a player like Bell without losing prospect capitol, but that doesn't feel like the Brewers. This would give them a chance to strategize from a position of austerity the way they have previously, but also allow them to acquire the difference making offensive powerhouse that has eluded them in previous trade deadlines. No more hedging with players like Jonathan Schoop. I realized when I posted this that it might be provocative or feel ill conceived. I do think there are aspects of it that are a little unsatisfying, but I think it would work and give the Brewers a chance to win now with impact.

I've brought this idea up a few times to a few different people and it seems to evoke the same response every time, even with me conceding that it might feel like a solution without a problem. This trade doesn't address the Brewers most glaring issue, but it also isn't the only trade the Brewers are allowed to make. His defense would be missed but the idea that he has something remarkable to contribute offensively at this point in his career is just not accurate. Jace Peterson, Yelich, Renfroe, Adames and increasingly Caratini, McCutchen and Urias are all bats that are proving relevant in the lineup. Tellez has good power and some of highest exit velocity in the league, but he also strikes out at a crazy rate and doesn't walk a lot. Getting on base is crucial. If it wasn't, they would have extended Chris Carter after the 2016 season when he led the league in HRs. I think the crew could acquire a player like Bell without losing prospect capitol, but that doesn't feel like the Brewers. This would give them a chance to strategize from a position of austerity the way they have previously, but also allow them to acquire the difference making offensive powerhouse that has eluded them in previous trade deadlines. No more hedging with players like Jonathan Schoop. I realized when I posted this that it might be provocative or feel ill conceived. I do think there are aspects of it that are a little unsatisfying, but I think it would work and give the Brewers a chance to win now with impact.

Yesterday marked the one year anniversary of Rowdy Tellez joining the Brewers. He's been solid. Now it's time to capitalize on the reputation he's built in Milwaukee to net a bona fide first baseman to win in 2022. A year ago today the Brewers acquired Rowdy Tellez for a prospect named Bowden Francis and an expendable journeyman reliever in Trevor Richards. In one full season in a Brewers uniform, Tellez has endeared himself to Brewers faithful. More than comfortable, the affably nicknamed Rowdy has been clutch on more than occasion. A walk-off against the Giants, a number of tie-breaking home runs, and a grand slam against the Reds that made up half of his franchise record eight RBI’s in a game. But that sentimentality glosses over some harder numbers. Tellez has been worth less than half a win using Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It's the halfway point of the season and if Tellez isn't even on pace to amass one WAR over the course of the season, what is all the sentimentality about? With half as many at bats, Keston Hiura has accomplished more. It isn’t like Tellez is a bad player. He joined the Crew after Daniel Vogelbach went down with a hamstring injury, and since arriving Brewers fans have no reason to feel anything but grateful for the paunchy lefty. Clutchness and reliability are difficult to wrap a metric around, but the painful truth is that if you do look at the metrics, Tellez may not be good enough yet to legitimize an every day presence on a team that should be trying to fix an inconsistent offense and win now. Centerfielders don't usually fix offenses. First basemen do. For instance, look to the East and you’ll see a Washington team that has no earthly reason to be hoarding an elite first baseman in 2022, but they’re equipped with one nonetheless. Former Pirates product Josh Bell has been solid for the Nationals since being traded there in 2020, but is having himself a career year in our nation’s capital just before he hits free agency. With a batting line of .318/.399/.514, Bell is responsible for a lot of headlines that read something like “Josh Bell’s bat shines in blow out loss”. But beyond Bell’s pop, he breaks the mold of what a first baseman does at the plate. His Expected Batting Average (XBA) stands at .309, and his Weighted On-base Average (WOBA) is an astounding .392. He’s putting the bat on the ball and not striking out. He has a 3.5 WAR already. These numbers aren’t good; they are elite, revelatory, and quite possibly suggestive of a player who’s quietly putting himself in the company of players like Paul Goldschmidt. The Brewers having a bat that can match the intimidation St. Louis brings to the park would make a powerful statement to fans and rival teams alike. To be sure, there would be obstacles. The most obvious would be what the Brewers would need to give in return. It’s worth noting that the package could involve somebody like Tellez. Besides competence and potential, Tellez offers two more years of control. Or maybe Tellez is kept and the designated hitter spot is used to find at-bats. We can debate the details of a satisfactory deal in the comments, but the Stearns administration has been savvy enough to not hoard prospects when the right player is available. The right player is available. There would also surely be a backlash from a portion of the fan base. But assuming the strategy is to get a ring, fan outrage should pretty much never be considered because fans aren't experts. Tellez is loved in the same way Milwaukee fans love anyone wearing a Milwaukee uniform, but it's all ephemera. When Jonathan Lucroy was traded, the Brewers acquired a mammoth haul, many fans complained - and Lucroy fell apart. Everyone stopped talking about Lucroy, especially considering the family tree of prospects that eventually helped net Christian Yelich. Baseball is a game but it's also a business. and being emotionally sterile in the strategy of winning is vital to actually getting those rings. If the Brewers’ offense continues to struggle, tough choices will need to be made, even if they involve fan favorites. View full article

The Brewers split the series against the Pirates, and now the trade deadline is approaching. With the Cubs going nowhere, this may be the last time the Brewers see their rivals in Cubs colors, setting up an impactful and uncharacteristically sentimental series. Baseball is a sport for the romantic. It’s historic, it’s passionate, its narrative is peppered with triumphant crests and problematic troughs. In a contemporary frame, there are few scenarios more emblematic of its capacity to charm the heart of the spectator than a Fourth of July day game at home against a division rival in a win-now season. Brewers fans will be given that gift on Monday when the Cubs come to town. Let’s look at the match-ups. Monday July 4th Eric Lauer (6-3 4.02 ERA) Justin Steele (3-5 4.39 ERA) What is there to say about Justin Steele that can’t be said about the Cubs season at large? In his last start he pitched five innings and gave up one run against the Reds in a win for Chicago. In the game prior to that he went longer, going 5.2 innings but was knocked around for five runs in what would ultimately be an L for the Cubbies. In a narrative that feels intentionally tedious, there are more losses than wins and a very middling ERA in the sophomore season of a young pitcher who’s still figuring himself out in the league. Eric Lauer’s season feels far more complicated. The lefty entered June with an ERA approaching the ones, but in the last seven games he’s averaging fewer than 5.2 innings a game with an ERA of 6.14. The major curse for Lauer has been keeping the ball in the park, giving up nearly 2 dongs per every nine innings. The crux of his situation has major implications. If the numbers improve he can look like an ace, but if they continue to degrade he realistically can’t be relied on to continue starting. Tuesday July 5th TBD Kyle Hendricks (4-6 4.76 ERA) The Crew is still licking their wounds and navigating a rotation that’s been wracked with pesky injuries and have been forced to bounce around a cast of unusual suspects to make ends meet. The results have been mixed, from an auspicious beginning to Jason Alexander’s career to a desperation waiver claim of Chi Chi Gonzalez. Whoever the Brewers throw on the mound on Tuesday will have to match wits with the surgical and underrated Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks’ mastery may have faded a bit in the last couple of years but as one of the last remaining cast members of their unforgettable 2016 roster, the veteran is still capable of flairs of dominance, as demonstrated by his opening day performance where he held the Brewers to one run over 5.1 innings. Wednesday July 6th Corbin Burnes (7-4 2.36) Adrian Sampson (0-0 3.38) Simply stated, Corbin Burnes is must watch pitching. The numbers over his last 15 games are all hovering around statistics resembling his Cy Young campaign last year. He’s authored wins in his last 4 consecutive starts, including this past week’s 19-2 annihilation of the Pittsburgh Pirates; a team that despite that embarrassing loss managed to split the four game series. Adrian Sampson has been in the majors since 2016 but with just over 200 career innings pitched it goes without saying that he’s yet to break through to solidify himself in any rotation. The 30-year-old righty has bounced around from Texas to Seattle to Chicago through a series of non-tenders, waiver claims and DFA’s. The numbers speak to a role player who’s meant to eat innings on a struggling team, and he’s doing just that. Players To Watch Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras : both players for the same reason. The Cubs aren’t going anywhere this season and barring some all-in free agency frenzy, probably not in 2023 either. The young team on Chicago’s north side doesn’t have a lot of practical veteran trade capital, but Contereras and his 153 OPS+ are one of the most enticing commodities in the entire league. Hendriks has less glitz attached to his name, but the storied vet has a hate-to-love-you persona for anyone who really loves the game. This series quite possibly presents the last chance to see both players in Cubbie blue. Christopher Morel : While the Cubs have some outgoing players, they also have some newcomers who look poised to haunt the Crew for seasons to come. The young bat of Morel has been going off since he’s entered the show. Morel is 23 years and 10 days old and has mustered almost one win since debuting on May 17th. Eight home runs and an OPS of .839 indicates an intimidating measure of confidence for such a young bat. Narvaez: After nearly two months without hitting a home run Narvaez nearly crushed one into the Allegheny river off of Zach Thompson on Sunday, serving as the sole offensive output for the Brewers in their victory over the Bucs. The power outage for the 2021 All Star seems like it’s overstayed its welcome for far too long, and it might be worth keeping an eye to see if that home run portends an offensive jumpstart for the Brewers backstop. Predictions It’s hard to look at a split series against the lowly Pirates as something other than a tiny step back for the Crew, who’d been more competent at the end of June than they did in the beginning of the month. I think the pitching matchups are decent enough that the Crew manages to win the series. View full article