Caswell

Chi Chi needs to avoid throwing that sinker as much as he can! Threw three in the first, a ball and two hits. Get rid of that pitch!

Just needed to get out of the first for Chi Chi. Stats show he settles after that. Tie game!

I doubt he has seen the lab much considering he's been here only a week, but when I went through some stats while preparing my article predicting his start after Ashby went on the IR, I saw some stuff that could play well. I am really just hoping he avoids what he calls his sinker as much as possible. It moves more like a 2-seamer and is hit well across the board and has been his worst pitch for the most part throughout his career. Getting through that first inning will be imperative for his success tonight though. 5 of his 6 runs this year have been scored in the first. Obviously, small sample size for this year, but in 2021 and 2020, his ERA has been highest in the first inning, with 27% of runs in 2021 and 50% of runs in 2020 scored in that frame.

This may sound strange, but Chi Chi doesn't look that horribly bad. He certainly doesn't look good, but there are some things that aren't horrible. He has played just over a third of his career innings in Colorado after all...

Let's hope for 4 innings and only a couple runs! I think the Crew can put up a couple in Flaherty's second outing of the year

Let's hope for 4 innings and only a couple runs! I think the Crew can put up a couple in Flaherty's second outing of the year

Thought this would be the case after Ashby landed on the IR today. I'm cautiously optimistic. If he can let up only a couple in 4 innings, I'll be happy

Great post! The MLB draft is almost always a bit of a toss up after the first couple of picks, it seems. It will be interesting to see though. I feel as if the Brewers have made a play towards an outfielder and a south paw pitcher in addition to the catcher you spoke about. I don't really follow the draft much, but definitely should start!

With Aaron Ashby landing on the IR and Woodruff still a little ways out, the Brewers only have four starting pitchers on the roster. Chi Chi Gonzalez will likely make that five on Tuesday. Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports With Aaron Ashby landing on the IR and Woodruff still a little ways out, the Brewers only have four starting pitchers on the roster. Chi Chi Gonzalez will likely make that five on Tuesday. It would be a good bet the Brewers start Chi Chi Gonzalez on Tuesday, with Aaron Ashby landing on the injured list with left forearm inflammation and Brandon Woodruff still recovering from a right ankle sprain and a bout with hand numbness related to Raynaud’s Syndrome. Woodruff is making his second rehab assignment game on Tuesday following his impressive 51 pitch, 2.2 inning outing where he struck out seven of the eight outs recorded, allowing just one earned run on one hit and a walk. With another rehab outing scheduled, Woodruff will likely be at least a week away, leaving only four healthy starters on the Brewers current active roster: Adrian Houser, Corbin Burnes, Eric Lauer, and Jason Alexander. Aaron Ashby was expected to start for the Brewers on Tuesday, but by landing on the IR, that won’t happen. Eric Lauer is slated to go on Wednesday, and Jason Alexander going on Thursday for the Crew, I think Chi Chi will take Tuesday. Lauer last pitched on the 17th of June, going 6.1 innings, striking out five and four earned runs off three home runs in the Brewers’ 5-4 win over Cincinnati. If he were to be moved up in the rotation to pitch on Tuesday, he would only have four days rest, which he has done twice this season, but only following shorter starts, so I don’t expect him to go. Gonazalez remains the likely option, as he has started 49 games in his six year MLB career, including making two starts this year with the Minnesota Twins, from whom the Brewers claimed him on June 14th. He has also made eight appearances with five of those being starts for the Twins Triple-A ball club. With the Twins, he allowed six runs in seven innings to a 7.71 ERA, but was markedly better in AAA, only allowing 16 runs in 36.2 innings to a 3.44 ERA. His career numbers are much worse than Jason Alexander’s, who has come onto the scene with the Crew this year and cemented his spot somewhere on the active roster, but Gonzalez could serve as a stopgap while injuries are healed, much as he did with the Twins. I don’t expect anything more than four innings for the 6-3 right hander, with the bullpen used to fill in the rest. Chi Chi Gonzalez uses a 4-seam fastball, sinker, slider and changeup to record his outs in the majors this year, but has used a curveball and cutter sparingly as recently as last year. With only two games under his belt this year in the majors, we might see some of those as well. His 4-seamer and sinker are almost identical, just varying in usage, as the 4-seamer is used on southpaws and the sinker used on righties. They each sit around 92 MPH, but the sinker will drop a little more and move in on right handers significantly, making me think it is more of a 2-seamer than a sinker. Neither of them miss the bats too well though, with a batting average of 0.333 on his 4-seamer, and 0.714 on his sinker. His off-speed fares much better, as his 84 MPH slider and 86 MPH changeup allowing a batting average of 0.250 and 0.286, respectively. His slider is most often used against righties this year, but usually has usage pretty even regardless of handedness. His changeup, however, has been used primarily against right-handed batters and has been very successful. The defense will be busy, as Chi Chi mostly plays to contact and doesn’t blow people away to strike them out, striking out only 13.4% of batters in his career. He walks even less, at a rate of 9.4% in his career, so limiting hard hit balls will be the most important and recording those ground ball outs when the defense can. View full article

Hunter Renfroe struck out five times and walked once over 13 at-bats this weekend, but made a big bang regardless with three long dongs. Image courtesy of © David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports Hunter Renfroe struck out five times and walked once over 13 at-bats this weekend, but made a big bang regardless with three long dongs. Hunter Renfroe has not torn the world apart since coming back from the injured list on June 7th against the Phillies, only batting 0.200 in this time. But he made a splash in the three-game weekend set in Cincinnati with three bombs off three different types of pitches. The Brewers took all three games, and took back a share of first in the N.L. Central as the Cardinals dropped two of three in Boston against the Red Sox.. Now, onto the home runs. Hunter Renfroe: June 17th The first home run Renfroe hit in this series came on Friday against Hunter Green when he sent a 98.3 MPH 4-seam fastball an expected 400 ft. to left field. This made it a 3 to 0 ballgame in the top of the 4th, scoring Rowdy Tellez and Andrew McCutchen. It came off the bat at 110.1 MPH with a launch angle of 19°. Hunter Renfroe: June 18th The second home run coming on Saturday against Luis Cessa in the 7th added the final run of the game, making it 7 to 3. The 82.7 MPH slider left the ballpark at 105.0 MPH with a launch angle of 23° for an expected distance of 409 feet out to left field once again. Hunter Renfroe: June 19th The final bomb happened on Sunday. This came off of a 90.4 MPH Joel Kuhnel changeup and soared to left field. This added a couple insurance runs in the 7th by scoring Andrew McCutchen once again, making the game 6 to 3. This ball left the bat at a whopping 108.3 MPH with a launch angle of 28°, landing an expected 444 feet from home plate. View full article

The Brewers won! Let’s dig into how much that losing streak changes their postseason outlook. It hasn’t been easy watching the Crew the last few games. Before Sunday’s 4-1 win against the Nationals in D.C., they had lost 8 games in a row. This caused the Brewers to drop out of first place in the National League Central Division for the first time since they shared the top spot with the Cardinals back on April 24th. After that great first month, the Brewers had a significantly worse second month this season, which was highlighted by a recent post on Reddit. In this post, the graph shown below was shared, created by Ethan Peterson. The Brewers rank 3rd worst, ahead of the Rockies and Angels, in the worst change in winning percentage from the first month of the season to the second. Interesting enough, from this graphic, we can see that all but the division leaders in the A.L. West, Astros, and A.L. East, Yankees, have a worse win percentage in the second month of the season compared to the first. We can also see that there are three teams from the N.L. Central - the Reds, the Cubs, and the Pirates - who have all bettered themselves from the first month of the season, which could be a concern. Where are the Brewers in the Central? How does this streak affect their standings in the division which they’ve won two of the last four seasons, especially with the improvement of those three teams and the Cardinals being consistent? Well it is basically the same. Those three teams were never expected to be a contender in this division, and all of them actually had struggled quite a bit. A recent tweet on Friday June 10th by Bob Nightengale here, sums up how the entire division is struggling right now. Going into Friday’s games the Reds had lost two in a row, while the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals had all lost three in a row. At the time, the first place Brewers had lost 6 on the bounce. Over the weekend, the Pirates’ and Cubs’ losing continued, meaning they have lost 6 in a row, while the Cardinals won the first two games of their series with the Reds, before dropping their finale on Sunday. As such, the standings remain relatively unchanged, with the Cardinals leading the Brewers by 0.5 games. After that, the Brewers are eight games ahead of the Pirates, 9.5 games ahead of the Cubs, and 12 games ahead of the Reds. So even after that eight game losing streak, the Brewers are just half a game behind the Cardinals for the lead, and still have a healthy lead over the other teams in the division. Where are the Brewers in the National League? The goal going into the season, though, is making the playoffs and being successful there. Starting this year, six teams will be making the playoffs from each league, rather than just the five of the past. There won’t be a wild card game anymore, replacing it with a 3-game series. The three division winners will still make it, getting the top three seeds, while the next three best records will get the remaining three seeds in order of highest record. An important distinction is that there will no longer be a possibility for game 163, which we last saw in 2018. The Brewers and Dodgers each won against the Cubs and the Rockies, respectively, to win their division, sending the loser to the Wild Card Game, where the Rockies eventually prevailed. With the addition of a team, the format will have to change as well. The 3rd seed plays the 6th seed and the 4th and 5th seed play each other. The top 2 division winners both receive a bye in the first round. There isn’t any reseeding, so the number 1 seed has home field advantage for the winner of the 4th and 5th, and the 2nd seed hosts the winner of the 3rd and 6th. Now, all that being said, how are the Brewers looking in the entire National League? Well, it could be worse. The Brewers are currently the 7th seed. Below are standings for each of the divisions, graphed by wins. Now, although the Brewers are the 7th seed, they actually have the same number of wins as the 3rd seeded Cardinals and the 6th seeded Braves, along with one more win than the 5th seeded Giants, and are only lower based on winning percentage. The Cards and Braves have each played 61 games this year, while the Giants have only played 59 games so far compared to the Brewers’ 62 games played. So all-in-all, the Brewers really are in good shape in the N.L. despite how things have been going for just over a week. They sit half a game behind the Cardinals in the division and are half a game behind the 5th seeded Giants and 6th seeded Braves. How does the Current Brewer Season compare to Recent Brewer Seasons? With recent dismissals of Joe Girardi of the Phillies on June 3rd and Joe Maddon of the Angels on June 7th, two very successful managers - with six World Series wins as a coach or manager combined - find themselves without a job. It would be a jump to say the efforts of Craig Counsell are in vain, but the thoughts start to creep in. He is the longest tenured National League manager, and has made the postseason in the last 4 years, but hadn’t made the postseason in his first two full years, or the partial year when he began his managerial career. A knee-jerk reaction would say to jump ship, but right now, the Brewers are following the trend seen below. Everything is fine. They are currently at the same pace this far into the season as the 2019 Brewers, who went 89-73 and lost in the Wild Card Game as well as the 2021 Brewers who went 95-67 before becoming eliminated in the Division Series. Now, one may say, look at how that win count has not moved for so long, as they’ve lost eight in a row, but so did the 2021 Brewers, and the 2019 Brewers had a losing streak of five games. In reality, the amazing pace set in the first month of the season, which led to a winning percentage of 0.682, was the highest winning percentage in an April that had 20 or more games played since the 2014 team, which had a winning percentage of 0.704. That team only had one other month above 0.500, ending the season in 3rd place in the Central with a record of 82 and 80. This year is also only 5th the highest winning percentage in any calendar month with more than 20 games played in Craig Counsell’s managerial career. Since Craig Counsell started, this season had the best April winning percentage at 0.682, and second best May winning percentage at 0.586. Finally, usually he has a harder time in June, and his best month is September. Conclusions Yeah it stinks as a fan to see the Crew drop so many recently, but that is part of baseball. You’re going to lose a lot of games, just have to lose less than everyone else, and that is what is happening, especially after that great start, where the Brewers won so many. We are only 62 games in the year, with another 100 to play. Right now the Brewers are on pace to win 89 games this year, which makes the playoffs in every single year under the new playoff format since the strike shortened 1981 baseball year. Things aren’t great, but streaks happen. Everything will even out. Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports View full article

Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe are both expected to come back to the major league club on June 7th after a much needed off-day on June 6th following the 4 game set against the Padres where the Brewers dropped 3 and were largely unable to score. Their return will need some altering to the roster. Adames has been working back through a series of rehab assignments, albeit with complications. On the 28th of May, he had some right quadriceps discomfort while with the Single-A Carolina Mudcats which was deemed to be unrelated to the left ankle injury which originally landed him on the 15 day injured list. Meanwhile, Renfroe has been coming back from his first stint on the injured list since 2018 while he was with the Padres. This time, his injury is a “low-grade hamstring strain” according to Craig Counsell, which was sustained on May 23rd. Getting Adames and Renfroe back into the lineup will definitely help out with the recent offensive woes, as they each have compiled 1.1 wins above replacement (WAR) thus far into the season, ranking 4th and 6th respectively of all Brewers on the year. They each have 9 home runs, second on the team behind Rowdy Tellez’s 10 long balls, so they look to provide an instant pop back into the lineup. With them coming back, two will have to be sent down. Throughout most of the year, the Brewers have been running with 12 position players on the 26 man active roster. I don’t expect this to change. Two catchers will remain, so Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson are safe until the return of Omar Narvaez from the COVID-19 list. The most likely player to take a trip down to Nashville is Pablo Reyes despite his great play in the field and a 2-4 showing at the plate on Sunday. Another option is placing Luis Urias on the injured list after an aggravation to a swollen thumb on his right hand. This is highly dependent on the severity of his injury however. Both of these players are not likely to leave the club at the same time, as there would be a distinct lack of positional flexibility and no real backup at shortstop to Adames, who is likely to be eased back into play with some designated hitting. Renfroe, on the other hand, is expected to be thrust back into right field, where he has started in 38 games this year. This secures the corners back to where fans expected, with Christian Yelich in left, and Renfroe in right. Center remains slightly concerning with Lorenzo Cain’s issues at the plate, batting only 0.169 and providing negative WAR on the year. Meanwhile, Tyrone Taylor has earned more playing time in center, batting just under 0.270 in May along with all 6 of his home runs. This suggests Taylor should be playing center for the most part, but what to do with Cain? He has been the Brewers’ worst hitter on the year, but is not someone who can be just cut, and the Brewers need a roster spot. A creative option is some time off. Maybe there is a lingering back/neck issue, so he can take a step back. Cain deserves the support of the team and the fans, but his mental is taking a beating according to a recent interview. Spending some time with his family and taking a little break may be exactly what is needed to come back hot and take back center, while also allowing Renfroe and Adames to come back. What do you think? I think Pablo Reyes will be the first down, then after that, it is a little unknown. There is obviously Hiura who could go back, but I don’t think that is a good option. Cain taking a break seems to be the best thing here.