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Everything posted by Lucas O.
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...this was in response to me suggesting I would rather have a Voit/Ruf DH platoon than a Winker/Ruf or Winker/Voit DH platoon. brewers888 said that's a pathetic DH platoon so I cited numbers showing it would be a top 10 DH platoon based on last year's numbers. I never said the Brewers would actually use that DH platoon but it's what I personally would want. -
Voit has a 141 wRC+ vs RHP this season lol
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Why? Voit had a 116 wRC+ vs RHP last season and a career 129 wRC+ vs RHP. Ruf had a 116 wRC+ vs LHP last season and a career 142 wRC+ vs LHP. That 116 wRC+ platoon would have been the 9th best DH performance in the MLB last season.
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I'd rather have a Voit/Ruf DH platoon than see Winker. Voit can hit the RHP and Ruf the LHP.
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And this is why Jake Cousins isn't an MLB pitcher at the moment. Absolutely zero command. That flies in AAA when his stuff overwhelms hitters and he gets some hilarious chases but he cannot consistently get chases like that in the MLB
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Yeah. He has 1 option and he still hasn't hit 5 years of service time.
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Yeah I did a comparison of Adames and the top FA to hit the FA market and he compares really poorly to that group. Baez - 4.0 fWAR/600 PA with 6.1 fWAR peak Story - 4.1 fWAR/600 PA with 6.3 fWAR peak Turner - 5.1 fWAR/600 PA with 6.8 fWAR peak Correa - 5.0 fWAR/600 PA with 6.2 fWAR peak Bogaerts - 3.8 fWAR/600 PA with 6.1 fWAR peak Swanson - 2.9 fWAR/600 PA with 6.4 fWAR peak Seager - 4.8 fWAR/600 PA with 5.4 fWAR peak Lindor - 5.3 fWAR/600 PA with a 7.8 fWAR peak So he has the lowest peak by a considerable amount and the second lowest career fWAR/600 PA. Swanson the only guy with a lower fWAR/600 PA was coming of a 6.4 fWAR season and had been a 4,5 fWAR/600 PA guy since 2020. If Adames wants $20M+ a year to stay in Milwaukee, I would pass. He's already declining in sprint speed and has a batted ball profile that doesn't seem like it will age well. I think Brewers fans just remember 2021 Adames and think he will return to that level, but there's been nothing in his career to indicate that level in 2021 post trade is sustainable long term.
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This gives off fake injury vibes because Rea wasn't eligible to return until the 30th.
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The GOAT @Smichaelis9provided video of the double play via twitter.
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Moore and Brown Jr are some middle infield duo. Just turned a ridiculous double play started on a crazy spinning throw from Moore.
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Also should be taken into consideration that Tyrone basically did not have a spring training so him getting off to a slow start isn't at all shocking. Plus if he was performing up to his xwOBA he would have like an 80 wRC+ (which isn't great but but with his defense and base stealing is easy an above average player).
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Brewers had 3 barrels today that all went for outs. Their hitters had way more productive contact than the Rays today but the balls just didn't drop for us.
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After a really slow start to the year, Eric Brown Jr's OPS is up to .681 which should put his wRC+ above league average. He's slashing .240/.361/.320 with 17 SB to 2 CS. Seems like he's adjusted to the swing change and just needs to find the power now that his load isn't as pronounced. Today was a good trend towards finding his power with 2 doubles off the wall in LF.
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And he walks the next hitter to load the bases with no outs. He was pulled. 36 pitches only 14 for strikes. Honestly seems like a growing trend of Brewers pitchers losing their command in AAA.
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Clayton Andrews command is so much worse at the moment than it was to start the season. He's in a jam to start his second inning after a HBP and a BB with 0 outs.
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Ethan Small comes in with runners on the corner in the 2nd inning. He proceeds to walk the first 2 batters on 9 pitches with none of them being in the strike zone. He struck out the 3rd hitter to end the inning. That's now 6 BB in Small's last 6 IP.
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And the Mudcats go down 1-2-3 and get no hit. A Luis Lara walk was the only Mudcat player to reach base.
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Mudcats are entering the final inning of game 1 without a hit. Can they break up the no-hitter?
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Yeah but that's with Braun and Segura playing way under their expected levels. 2014 was the only season in Braun's first 10 years where his wRC+ was under 129 and it was 113. Segura went from a 4 fWAR to a 0.1 fWAR season which likely was entirely due to the off the field issues with his sick kid. If that 2014 team had a typical Braun season and Segura without the off the field issues I think it's certainly a playoff team.
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Maldonado getting some very unfortunate batted ball luck in this game and the defense has not been helping him out whatsoever. Lara had a great throw home and Sibrian dropped the ball on the tag (also the runner never came close to touching home plate but the ump ruled him safe). When I say he wasn't close to touching home, I mean it wasn't remotely close. He missed home plate by multiple feet.
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Obviously Segura had a sick baby who passed away in July of 2014 which more than likely contributed to his awful season but from a pure on paper perspective, that 2014 team actually was a pretty darn good team.
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Looking back on that roster on paper it actually wasn't that bad of a team. C - Lucroy - 131 OPS+ 1B - Reynolds - 87 OPS+ 2B - Gennett - 107 OPS+ SS - Segura - 70 OPS+ 3B - Ramirez - 108 OPS+ LF - Davis - 106 OPS+ CF - Gomez - 129 OPS+ RF - Braun - 113 OPS+ Bench - Weeks - 123 OPS+, Maldonado - 95 OPS+, Overbay - 84 OPS+, Herrera - 74 OPS+, Schafer - 55 OPS+, Parra - 96 OPS+ SP - Peralta - 107 ERA+, Lohse - 107 ERA+, Gallardo - 108 ERA+, Garza - 104 ERA+, Nelson - 77 ERA+, Estrada - 87 ERA+, Fiers - 178 ERA+ BP - Rodriguez - 125 ERA+, Smith 103 ERA+, Duke - 155 ERA+, Kintzler - 117 ERA+ If Segura and Braun hadn't had down years that could have been a playoff team. Segura went from 4.1 bWAR to 0.9 bWAR. Braun went from 1.7 bWAR (61 games) to 1.2 bWAR (135 games) and that's even with one of the worst 1B position in baseball that season.
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Prospect voting time! May, 2023
Lucas O. replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Curious as to your thinking behind Guilarte as the best pure hitter in the system right now. Surely it's an eye test thing because the stats don't exactly scream pure hitter. Since coming stateside, he has a 22% K-rate between ACL and A ball with a 60% ground ball rate. -
Miller’s xwOBA is .311 (Fangraphs is always a day behind) and he’s looked way better in May since he was put into basically an every day role. His xwOBA this month is I believe .382 or .376 can’t remember which.
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Miller still doesn't have much of an upside because of his limited power, but he could become a very solid utility player. Hernan Perez but actually good. 10ish HR, good average, good defense. There's just not enough power there.
