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Lucas O.

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Everything posted by Lucas O.

  1. Lucas O.
    The 90th percentile OAA next to the 16th percentile Outfield Jump is pretty hilarious.
  2. Lucas O.
    Wisconsin gets an early lead. Eric Brown Jr hit a single up the middle. He advanced to 2B on a groundout to 1B by Darrien Miller. Brown Jr then stole third and scored on a Ben Metzinger single to LF. 1-0 Wisconsin.
  3. Lucas O.
    I just posted an update from Curt Hogg. Rea is starting tomorrow. Freddy, Miley, Burnes will start against the Cardinals. Lauer either had his start pushed back to avoid the Cardinals, is hurt, or was moved to the bullpen.
  4. Lucas O.
    Not related to today's game but didn't feel like making a thread for it. Brewers push back Lauer's next start/move him to the pen. Either way he's not set up to pitch against the Cardinals anymore which feels like a very smart call.
  5. Lucas O.
    Hey I was on board with that!
  6. Lucas O.
    Pretty sure Darin Ruf is a FA. Might be worth spinning the wheels on him to see if he can just hit LHP for us.
  7. Lucas O.
    Imagine if Yelich and Bellinger swapped places. Yelich is underperforming his .359 xwOBA by 53 points while Bellinger is overperforming his .326 xwOBA by 52 points. Swap places and Yelich has a .412 wOBA and Bellinger a .274 wOBA
  8. Lucas O.
    Well they are playing the team that lost 7-3 despite throwing a no-hitter haha.
  9. Lucas O.
    I have seen you cite this multiple times. Is this based off a study somewhere on performance post neck surgery or is it just an assumption on your part because it being statistically true would be a welcomed sight.
  10. Lucas O.
    Winker has some pretty alarming trends from 2021 to 2023. He was hurt last year which could explain some of his problems. He is supposed to be healthy now but those trends have continued downwards. The most alarming trend to me is his trend against Fastballs. His xwOBA against FB has completely fallen off a cliff since peaking in 2021. That trend line looks like a guy who just can't keep up against velocity anymore.
  11. Lucas O.
    They shoudn't have lol. It was completely unnecessary. Shifting has been around for a long time. They shifted against Mickey Mantle back in the day and those shifts were way more severe than anything that had been happening lately. The logic in the shift ban was also pointless. The amount of shifting has increased because of hitters trying to hit for power to the pull side. Banning the shift to create "more balls in play" just enables those extreme pull hitters to continue trying to hit HR every time they are at the plate because now when they just miss one by pull a liner to short RF it goes for a hit instead of an out. There's a reason the list of hitters who would most benefit from the shift were a bunch of power hitters and not contact hitters. The kid remark was because all the "hits up the middle should be hits" people are just talking about nostalgia from when they were a kid and taught to hit the ball back up the middle. Nobody is going to tune in to baseball because hits up the middle are now hits. The idea that it adds to the entertainment factor is mostly just not true.
  12. Lucas O.
    That's a hilariously brutal attempt at a comparison but the fact you made it shows that you have no reason behind nostalgia so I appreciate you admit you were wrong!
  13. Lucas O.
    Very doubtful but the point still stands. Give a logical reason why a baseball hit up the middle should be a hit other than nostalgia because I'm pretty sure you can't.
  14. Lucas O.
    I mean you're essentially calling for putting an X on the field and forcing defensive players to stand there. There's zero reason a well hit ball up the middle deserves to be a hit while a well hit ball to where the shortstop traditionally players deserves to be an out. You're just crying out about nostalgia from when you were a kid and hit were told to hit balls up the middle!
  15. Lucas O.
    It mostly just feels incredibly unnecessary. Should we bring back spit balls and sticky stuff because that used to be allowed? Definitely should get rid of the DH and have pitchers hit again then. Only day games?
  16. Lucas O.
    So where does it end then? Will there be an X on field for every position player? Why should no doubles defense be allowed in the OF if the IF can't shift towards the middle of the field?
  17. Lucas O.
    I said overrated not zero value. If Turang and Winker had the same OBP which is more valuable?
  18. Lucas O.
    I personally think Winker's OBP is overrated because of how terrible he is as a baserunner. You basically need 3 singles, a double and a single, or a HR to score him from 1B. He's the definition of station to station as a baserunner.
  19. Lucas O.
    How long of a leash will the Brewers give Jesse Winker? He had really bad batted ball metrics last year and that has only gotten worse this season. Considering he offers nothing outside of his bat this is pretty problematic. Out of 272 hitters with at least 75 PA this season this is where Winker's batted ball data sits. .215 xBA - 233rd .293 xSLG - 263rd .077 xISO - 261st .288 xwOBACON - 260th 88.7 Avg EV - 152nd 30.4% Sweet Spot Rate - 200th (batted balls with a LA between 8 and 32) 3.6% Barrel Rate - 221st 5.4% solid contact rate - 167th He obviously doesn't strike out that much and he draws a lot of walks but with how bad his baserunning is, how valuable is that high OBP? Not saying I think the Brewers should get rid of him now like I would for Voit, but how long should the leash be? Especially if Hiura continues to lower that K-rate in AAA while being super productive.
  20. Lucas O.
    I think they should just get rid of Voit at this point for pretty much anyone. Winker has had horrible batted ball data for over a year now. I thought the surgeries and getting healthy would lead to a bounce back but the batted ball data has only gotten worse this season. Probably not a popular take but I'd give him another 50-100 PA and if he can't start elevating the ball/hitting the ball harder then I don't think he should be an every day starter. If Hiura continues to reduce the K-rate then call him up and make him the full time DH with Winker either benched/traded/DFA'd
  21. Lucas O.
    He also hit LHP well in AAA in 2021 so this likely means nothing. The gap between LHP in AAA and the MLB is pretty significant
  22. Lucas O.
    I mean since 4/17 Yelich has an 8% BB-rate, 14% K-rate and an xwOBA of .387. He's underperforming that wOBA by .066 which is largely just down to being incredibly unlucky. He's underperformed his xwOBA by about .010 the last two season. If he was underperforming at that level this season his wOBA would be .350 good for like a 120 wRC+. It's fine to acknowledge he looks much better has been incredibly unlucky this season.
  23. Lucas O.
    Yelich has had some awful luck this season. He's hitting the ball way better than he has the last 2 seasons but has underperformed his xwOBA by .048 which will only go up after today.
  24. Lucas O.
    Bringing Miley back out for the 6th was such a clear punting the game move. He was getting absolutely rocked the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. Down 4-1 vs Kershaw so Counsell decided to punt the game.
  25. Lucas O.
    He has an .866 OPS vs the Brewers which is slightly below his .893 career OPS but he has always mashed at Miller/AmFam to the tune of a .956 OPS.
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