Redd Vencher
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Everything posted by Redd Vencher
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@jay87shot @Robocaller The Defense component on Fangraphs includes positional adjustment. A fulltime DH is going to have a very low defense component. Per 1458 innings adjustments, so divide by that and multiply by the innings at the position. C +12.5 1B -12.5 2B +2.5 SS +7.5 3B +2.5 LF -7.5 CF +2.5 RF -7.5 DH -17.5 @jay87shot Projections use past performance to predict future performance. Keston Hiura has had 246+ PA 3 of his 4 seasons in the big leagues, so that's what the projection system is spitting out for playing time. It also means it isn't going to throw out new numbers based on rule changes. If you want the projections adjusted to playing time, you take Fangraphs' Depth Chart where they adjust the PA to the season total.
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The Brewers offense was 6th in 4+ and 5+ run games and T-9th in fewest times held to 2 runs or less. Hard to be much more consistent than that. Even the Yankees weren't that consistent, and they were the only other team to average 5+ runs.
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There was no Rule 5 draft last year because of the lockout.
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Rutschman had a higher fWAR as well.
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If Contreras hits anywhere close to his 2022, it'd be a waste not to get him 500+ PA. There's 1436 innings to cover on average. Only 2 catchers caught at least 1000 innings (70%) last year, and only another 13 guys caught at least 800 innings (56%). Winker's career 87 wRC+ v. LHP isn't much better than Caratini's 82 wRC+ v. LHP. It's the perfect way to get Contreras to 500+ innings.
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The values are based on publicly available ranking sites, and what players ranked a certain way have historically performed. A lot of prospects, even really good ones, flame out. A team may feel more sure about any specific prospect than what past performance of the public rankings do. As for BTV on the Hader trade, they had it 15.5 going to SD and 11.10 going to the Brewers.
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Yeah I saw that as well. Rosenthal mentions the A's started talking Murphy trades at the last deadline. Maybe the Brewers prioritized Ruiz to try and get Murphy then, and that's why A's were talking about Ruiz to other teams.
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Haniger signed with the Giants for 3 years $43 M already @UpandIn.
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This is a pretty weird way to word the A's interest in Ruiz by Rosenthal. Were they just telling every club inquiring on Murphy they wanted Ruiz, or were the Brewers talking to the A's about a Murphy trade themselves?
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This is kind of like the Randy Arozarena (in 10-15 range in Cards system) trade where the Rays gave up a top 50 pitching prospect in Matt Liberatore. The value doesn't make sense using the publicly available lists, but obviously you'd want the Rays end of the trade now rather than the Cardinals.
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A 50 grade prospect is usually on a top 100 list. We had 0 of those entering 2020. The one who would have made the list had he not used his rookie status in 2019 was Grisham, and we moved him for a top 25 prospect and Lauer. Pre 2021 we had Turang and Mitchell crack the bottom of the top 100. Given Drew Rasmussen was able to pry Adames away, we can add him, but we traded him like you wanted. 2021 was the ascent of Joey Wiemer, but he only made 1 preseason top 100 going into 2022. Brice Turang fell off and Mitchell barely held on at 100 on one list for 2022. Sal Frelick couldn't be traded until after 2021, so all in all what did you want to move that you think could have nabbed the big go for it piece you wanted before 2022?
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With all the trades and graduations, the Brewers farm wasn't good by the end of 2019. The quick turnaround on the rebuild meant they never built the depth to keep making big Yelich like trades. They were a bottom 5 farm until 2022, and now they're ranked between 13 and 19. The Brewers were close to a Corey Ray led package for Quintana in 2017 before the Cubs came in last minute with the Eloy package. They were in on Machado in 2018, but the Orioles wanted Burnes in the trade while the Brewers were offering a package around Phillips and Ortiz. I think balking at including Burnes turned out all right. They also tried to acquire Bryan Reynolds at the deadline in 2021, but I don't know how they thought that was going to happen with the view of their farm system at the time.
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The Swanson ask is just comical to me for a guy with a career 94 wRC+ 16.4 fWAR 14.5 bWAR. Adames has a 111 wRC+ 13.7 fWAR 15.5 bWAR and 2 more years to build on that. He's much closer to Turner at the same point in their careers than Swanson. (Turner 119 wRC+ 18.5 fWAR 18.3 bWAR)
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@monty57 The streaky comment about the offense I don't necessarily agree with. They were 6th in baseball in both 4+ (97) and 5+ (78) run games and T-9th fewest games of with 2 runs or less (48). Cardinals were 2nd (100), 2nd (83), and T-8th (47) in those categories. Obviously, park factors are different, so that is much better offense from the Cardinals even if the number of games is close. A fun fact is the Yankees, the only team besides the Dodgers to average more than 5 runs a game, were 9th (93), 5th (79), and T-16th (52).
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Moving payroll im 2023 does nothing for future payroll that extensions would cover, so number 1 is just a wrong premise to begin with. Winker is that potential impact bat for the lineup. Renfroe's 2022 was the best offensive season of his career with a 124 wRC+. Winker's career average season is 126 wRC+, which is 10% better than Renfroe's career 116 wRC+. Winker's best production was a 147 wRC+ is basically 2022 Juan Soto (145), Julio Rodriguez (146), and Yandy Diaz (146). Even his career wost season in 2022 was still a 108 wRC+ and 10% better than McCutchen gave us. (98) Using WAR when discussing whether an offensive improvement is made. Since Winker is going to be the primary DH, it's highly unlikely he produces a 2+ WAR because fulltime DH lose 1.5-2.0 WAR just for being fulltime DH's. The WAR being made up is going to come from what we play in RF and 2B or depending on where Urias plays.
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We've pushed Jason Alexander further down the depth chart. It's hard to get a more proven veteran who could make starts when the Brewers are 6 deep in the rotation already, but improving that 7, 8, and 9 starter goes a long way to solving last year's problem.
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We've pushed Jason Alexander further down the depth chart. It's hard to get a more proven veteran who could make starts when the Brewers are 6 deep in the rotation already, but improving that 7, 8, and 9 starter goes a long way to solving last year's problem.
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It fits the oppoertunistic angle they go for. Find the the value where you can get it instead of feeling forced to overpay for something obvious.
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It fits the oppoertunistic angle they go for. Find the the value where you can get it instead of feeling forced to overpay for something obvious.
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They talked about improving the pitching depth especially for the rotation earlier in the offseason, and they've done that so far.
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They talked about improving the pitching depth especially for the rotation earlier in the offseason, and they've done that so far.
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Article: Brandon Drury is a Perfect Fit for the Brewers
Redd Vencher replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Drury isn't an upgrade over Urias. -
Rogers 24 G 23.0 IP 5.48 ERA 7/10 SVHLD 17 scoreless, four 1 run, and three 4 run. Hader 19 G 16.0 IP 7.31 ERA 7/9 SVHLD 14 scoreless, two 1 run, two 3 run, and one 6 run. Was shutdown for 2 weeks in August as well. Mosr of the blown saves occurred before the 8th inning, so having Hader doesn't solve that. 17 BS in 14 G with a 3-11 record in those games. Brewers were 2 games under .500 the 2 months before the Hader trade and 2 games under .500 post trade. The Hader trade didn't sink the season.
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Rogers outpitched Hader post trade.
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Winker had a 108 wRC+ last season in a down year with a career 126 wRC+. Seattle is a pretty extreme pitcher's park. He makes contact (career 17.1% K%) and walks a lot (career 12.9% BB%). He should see almost no time in the field because he's bad defensively, but the potential is there for a middle of the order bat.
