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Redd Vencher

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Everything posted by Redd Vencher

  1. Redd Vencher
    Last year's version of Winker is still an above average hitter.
  2. Redd Vencher
    wRC+ is based on linear weights, so all those events have a run value. These are the Fangraphs ones from 2015 relative to outs in their glossary, but they will work to illustrate the basic point. BB 0.55 HBP 0.57 1B 0.70 2B 1.00 3B 1.27 HR 1.65 The proportion of each of those states against the run environment is what gives us wRC+. A player with a lower wRC+ isn't going to provide more than one with a higher wRC+ in terms of batted outcomes. Where a difference that would come up on offense would be their ability on the basepaths, which isn't considered in wRC+. Sequencing on offense can help teams not as good by wRC+ to outperform it, but there's no good way to plan for good sequencing of batted outcomes. It's not something you can plan for.
  3. Redd Vencher
    Steamer has Urias putting up a 110 wRC+ while he put up a 111 wRC+ the last 2 sseasons. (112 and 110) It's saying he's going to be the same player he's been. Winker's 122 wRC+ is a nice bounce back projection even if it's a little worse than his career 126 wRC+. I would bet the over on the power output for a LH batter like Winker in Am Fam assuming his hitting bounces back. Expecting a projection system to project more SB based on the new rule changes is just something these systems can't do because they're using past data to project future performance. PA is another one you don't have to worry about in a projection system. If Frelick hits that 111 wRC+ projection, he's getting WAY more than 131 PA.
  4. Redd Vencher
    @jay87shot @Robocaller The Defense component on Fangraphs includes positional adjustment. A fulltime DH is going to have a very low defense component. Per 1458 innings adjustments, so divide by that and multiply by the innings at the position. C +12.5 1B -12.5 2B +2.5 SS +7.5 3B +2.5 LF -7.5 CF +2.5 RF -7.5 DH -17.5 @jay87shot Projections use past performance to predict future performance. Keston Hiura has had 246+ PA 3 of his 4 seasons in the big leagues, so that's what the projection system is spitting out for playing time. It also means it isn't going to throw out new numbers based on rule changes. If you want the projections adjusted to playing time, you take Fangraphs' Depth Chart where they adjust the PA to the season total.
  5. Redd Vencher
    The Brewers offense was 6th in 4+ and 5+ run games and T-9th in fewest times held to 2 runs or less. Hard to be much more consistent than that. Even the Yankees weren't that consistent, and they were the only other team to average 5+ runs.
  6. Redd Vencher
    The complaints I remember about JBJ and Wong signings was we weren't spending on better offensive players but going all in on run prevention. People shut up about Wong because he came out and provided the best offensive seasons of his career while JBJ was dreadful.
  7. Redd Vencher
    If they were targeting those guys, then JBJ's salary wasn't preventing anything. I would have loved your reaction at the trade deadline when acquiring 78 wRC+ Jorge Soler. No way you would have said the Brewers did enough to go for it. The only bat that was a marked improvement over what the Brewers had in house was Soto, and the Brewers weren't getting Soto in 2022. Taylor Rogers was a top 10 RP in baseball from the time Hader debuted to the deadline. We took a step back there to get pieces for the future, and then turned around to make up the difference with Bush and Rosenthal. Rogers outpitched Hader post trade even though both were bad, so having Hader wouldn't have changed the results. Bush struggled and Rosenthal got hurt again, so while the logic behind made sense even if the results were poor. Withh hindsight, another SP would have been nice.
  8. Redd Vencher
    It was reported we made a play at Bryant, but the Cubs didn't want to deal him in division. They did build on the roster at the deadline. They took on more money than they gave up at the deadline.
  9. Redd Vencher
    With his defense, a 89-90 wRC+ is a 2.5-3.0 WAR player. Basically the CF version of Wong (95 wRC+ with the Cardinals) for similar money.
  10. Redd Vencher
    The Brewers acquired Adames, Tellez, Escobar, Curtiss, and Norris in season in 2021. What move did McCutchen hinder in 2022?
  11. Redd Vencher
    They signed Kolten Wong the same offseason they signed JBJ. Does that not count?
  12. Redd Vencher
    This move has no bearing on whether the Brewers sign a guy like Turner.
  13. Redd Vencher
    Miller, Toro, Brosseau, and Turang all have options. It's just stockpiling optionable depth.
  14. Redd Vencher
    There was no Rule 5 draft last year because of the lockout.
  15. Redd Vencher
    Rutschman had a higher fWAR as well.
  16. Redd Vencher
    If Contreras hits anywhere close to his 2022, it'd be a waste not to get him 500+ PA. There's 1436 innings to cover on average. Only 2 catchers caught at least 1000 innings (70%) last year, and only another 13 guys caught at least 800 innings (56%). Winker's career 87 wRC+ v. LHP isn't much better than Caratini's 82 wRC+ v. LHP. It's the perfect way to get Contreras to 500+ innings.
  17. Redd Vencher
    The values are based on publicly available ranking sites, and what players ranked a certain way have historically performed. A lot of prospects, even really good ones, flame out. A team may feel more sure about any specific prospect than what past performance of the public rankings do. As for BTV on the Hader trade, they had it 15.5 going to SD and 11.10 going to the Brewers.
  18. Redd Vencher
    Yeah I saw that as well. Rosenthal mentions the A's started talking Murphy trades at the last deadline. Maybe the Brewers prioritized Ruiz to try and get Murphy then, and that's why A's were talking about Ruiz to other teams.
  19. Redd Vencher
    Haniger signed with the Giants for 3 years $43 M already @UpandIn.
  20. Redd Vencher
    This is a pretty weird way to word the A's interest in Ruiz by Rosenthal. Were they just telling every club inquiring on Murphy they wanted Ruiz, or were the Brewers talking to the A's about a Murphy trade themselves?
  21. Redd Vencher
    This is kind of like the Randy Arozarena (in 10-15 range in Cards system) trade where the Rays gave up a top 50 pitching prospect in Matt Liberatore. The value doesn't make sense using the publicly available lists, but obviously you'd want the Rays end of the trade now rather than the Cardinals.
  22. Redd Vencher
    A 50 grade prospect is usually on a top 100 list. We had 0 of those entering 2020. The one who would have made the list had he not used his rookie status in 2019 was Grisham, and we moved him for a top 25 prospect and Lauer. Pre 2021 we had Turang and Mitchell crack the bottom of the top 100. Given Drew Rasmussen was able to pry Adames away, we can add him, but we traded him like you wanted. 2021 was the ascent of Joey Wiemer, but he only made 1 preseason top 100 going into 2022. Brice Turang fell off and Mitchell barely held on at 100 on one list for 2022. Sal Frelick couldn't be traded until after 2021, so all in all what did you want to move that you think could have nabbed the big go for it piece you wanted before 2022?
  23. Redd Vencher
    With all the trades and graduations, the Brewers farm wasn't good by the end of 2019. The quick turnaround on the rebuild meant they never built the depth to keep making big Yelich like trades. They were a bottom 5 farm until 2022, and now they're ranked between 13 and 19. The Brewers were close to a Corey Ray led package for Quintana in 2017 before the Cubs came in last minute with the Eloy package. They were in on Machado in 2018, but the Orioles wanted Burnes in the trade while the Brewers were offering a package around Phillips and Ortiz. I think balking at including Burnes turned out all right. They also tried to acquire Bryan Reynolds at the deadline in 2021, but I don't know how they thought that was going to happen with the view of their farm system at the time.
  24. Redd Vencher
    The Swanson ask is just comical to me for a guy with a career 94 wRC+ 16.4 fWAR 14.5 bWAR. Adames has a 111 wRC+ 13.7 fWAR 15.5 bWAR and 2 more years to build on that. He's much closer to Turner at the same point in their careers than Swanson. (Turner 119 wRC+ 18.5 fWAR 18.3 bWAR)
  25. Redd Vencher
    @monty57 The streaky comment about the offense I don't necessarily agree with. They were 6th in baseball in both 4+ (97) and 5+ (78) run games and T-9th fewest games of with 2 runs or less (48). Cardinals were 2nd (100), 2nd (83), and T-8th (47) in those categories. Obviously, park factors are different, so that is much better offense from the Cardinals even if the number of games is close. A fun fact is the Yankees, the only team besides the Dodgers to average more than 5 runs a game, were 9th (93), 5th (79), and T-16th (52).
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