Redd Vencher
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Everything posted by Redd Vencher
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Gabriel Moreno was traded this last offseason.
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Best 2B in franchise history.
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Dollar/WAR is the average of all the big league free agent money divided by projected WAR. Trout has been vastly underpaid his entire career, and he was willing to take team friendly deals to stay in LA his entire career.
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What would a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?
Redd Vencher replied to YodaDaSoda's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Nobody is going to give up the Taylor Rodgers equivalent SP in a trade, so comparisons to the Hader trade fall apart. Are the Padres going to send Snell, Merrill, Lesko, and another piece or 2 for Burnes at the deadline assuming Snell is healthy and productive? -
That's big part of it as well, but the perception is a team trying to win 2-1 and struggling to overcome when the "slugfest" wins are more common even in the depressed run environment.
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The issue is people remember the low scoring games the Brewers lost than the other games. The issue without question was the pitching. We allowed 4+ runs 90 (12th most in baseball) times and only held opponents to <3 runs 51 times. (T-14th with 4 other teams)
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- brandon woodruff
- corbin burnes
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Top 10 4+ R games 1. Dodgers 109 2. Cardinals 100 3. Braves 99 4. Blue Jays 98 ---Red Sox 98 6. Brewers 97 7. Mets 95 8. Phillies 94 9. Yankees 93 10. Diamondbacks 91 ----Gaurdians 91 Top 10 5+ R games 1. Dodgers 86 2. Cardinals 83 3. Mets 81 4. Braves 80 5. Yankees 79 6. Brewers 78 7. Blue Jays 77 8. Red Sox 74 9. Diamondbacks 73 10. Mariners 71 Top 10 <3 R games 1. Dodgers 32 2. Braves 35 3. Blue Jays 38 4. Astros 45 5. Phillies 46 ---Diamondbacks 46 7. White Sox 47 ----Cardinals 47 8. Red Sox 48 ---Brewers 48 ----Mets 48
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- brandon woodruff
- corbin burnes
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Why would the acquisition of Winker mean they'll wait on Frelick when Winker is the DH?
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Probably trying to clear a 40 man spot as well.
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They had their 4th highest payroll in franchise history last year. Spending $6 M on a guy who's struggled with shoulder issues the last 2 seasons is tough to do with other raises.
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He was nontendered because he was set to make like $5-6 M in his final arb season. The financial comittment is going to be low.
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Only on one list was he in the top 50. The other lists had him at 69. His peripherals didn't support the 3.01 ERA, and he has a pretty lengthy injury history that probably keeps his value down. He's topped 100 IP twice in his professional career. 100.1 IP in 2018 and 110.1 IP in 2022. There's still a chance he ends up in the bullpen longterm because he can't handle a SP workload.
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The idea would be getting a longer term SP for the post 2024 rotation, and using one of our short term SP to address other parts of the roster. Mitchell for Cabrera and Houser for Santander would be a potential way to go about it. With the addition of Miley, you could trade both of Lauer and Houser in this scenario. Current post 2024 rotation. Peralta, Ashby, Gasser, Junk, and Small Potential post 2024 rotation Peralta, Ashby, Cabrera, Gasser, Junk/Small If you could get Woodruff on a Castillo type extension, that would really help.
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The idea would be getting a longer term SP for the post 2024 rotation, and using one of our short term SP to address other parts of the roster. Mitchell for Cabrera and Houser for Santander would be a potential way to go about it. With the addition of Miley, you could trade both of Lauer and Houser in this scenario. Current post 2024 rotation. Peralta, Ashby, Gasser, Junk, and Small Potential post 2024 rotation Peralta, Ashby, Cabrera, Gasser, Junk/Small If you could get Woodruff on a Castillo type extension, that would really help.
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I thought Arnold signed a 5 year extension last offseason. Am I just misremembering that?
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Redd Vencher replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
They missed on the Urias/Lauer for Grisham/Davies because they use the public prospect lists, and Grisham slipped past and graduated before the lists could catch up. The list makers said he would have been a top 50 prospect going into 2020 had he not burned through his rookie status. The way BTV handled it and nerfed Urias' trade vslue post trade was a poor move on their part. -
Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Redd Vencher replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
April 20th assuming no set backs from his recent wrist surgery. -
That's awfully high for arb numbers to get little discount on 1 extra year of control. Murphy signed his with 3 years before FA while Realmuto's was signed in FA. Both players are better than Contreras.
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What's your breakdown for a 6 year $40 M extension because that seems high for that type of deal.
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Was Wong less risky? He set career best offensive seasons in his 2 years with the Brewers. Does he maintain that in 2023 or does he return to Cardinals Wong without the elite defense?
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Hiura has a consistent hole in his swing dating back to his rookie season that he hasn't shown he can close yet. Until that happens, he's going to continue to struggle making consistent contact.
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Based on the actual performance, those 3 were better last year. Based on the expected performance stats from statcast, Winker was better than all 3 last year. He had a BABIP .046 points below his career average last season. His career numbers dwarf their career numbers.
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Last year's version of Winker is still an above average hitter.
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wRC+ is based on linear weights, so all those events have a run value. These are the Fangraphs ones from 2015 relative to outs in their glossary, but they will work to illustrate the basic point. BB 0.55 HBP 0.57 1B 0.70 2B 1.00 3B 1.27 HR 1.65 The proportion of each of those states against the run environment is what gives us wRC+. A player with a lower wRC+ isn't going to provide more than one with a higher wRC+ in terms of batted outcomes. Where a difference that would come up on offense would be their ability on the basepaths, which isn't considered in wRC+. Sequencing on offense can help teams not as good by wRC+ to outperform it, but there's no good way to plan for good sequencing of batted outcomes. It's not something you can plan for.
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Steamer has Urias putting up a 110 wRC+ while he put up a 111 wRC+ the last 2 sseasons. (112 and 110) It's saying he's going to be the same player he's been. Winker's 122 wRC+ is a nice bounce back projection even if it's a little worse than his career 126 wRC+. I would bet the over on the power output for a LH batter like Winker in Am Fam assuming his hitting bounces back. Expecting a projection system to project more SB based on the new rule changes is just something these systems can't do because they're using past data to project future performance. PA is another one you don't have to worry about in a projection system. If Frelick hits that 111 wRC+ projection, he's getting WAY more than 131 PA.
